Trump's new all-time low, GOP's popularity peril & more | Enten roundup

There's this new poll out that says, you know, how  President Trump is doing. How how good. Yeah. How. good? How good? Not good at all. Terribly bad. I  mean, this is a five alarm Trumpster fire. That's. what we're talking about. I mean, just look at  these ratings. Okay. Trump's not approved rating. hits alltime low. This is the Reuters Ipsos  poll. You know, at the beginning of his term, he was plus six. He was a two thumbs up. We're  talking Cisco here. Now, we're talking negative. 35 points. the worst he has ever been in the  Reuters Ipsos poll among independents. He's.

54 points underwater. I mean, this this is down  there with Jack Kustoau and The Little Mermaid. This is how low Trump is right now. The worst  he's ever been in the Reuters Ipsos poll. Worst. ever. Is this some kind of anomaly? It is not some  type of anomaly. This has been happening over and. over and over and over again. Oops, I did it  again if you're President Trump. And indeed, sometimes you just have to go through the history  books. Okay, so I was looking premidterm, October,

the worst ever, net approval ratings ever in any  individual poll. And you can see that the top four. spots for the worst are all occupied by a very  similar looking gentleman. Sometimes the pictures. really do tell the story. Trump, Trump, Trump, and  then Trump, NBC, ABC, Ipsos, Reuters, Ipsos, and. the Pew Research Center, all at least 31 points  underwater. When I was digging through the data. sets, the worst ever in an October, was in fact  Harry S. Truman, who was 30 points underwater,

and these numbers exceed all of them. So, worst  ever in NBC, worst worst ever, worst ever in ABC, I believe. So, worst ever in Ipsos, worst ever,  and worst ever in Pew. These are the worst at. least in terms of compared to other presidents  before a midterm election in the October. These. are the four worst ever regardless of any pollster  compared to other presidents. That doesn't seem. like a great situation. It seems, as I said, like  a five alarm Trumpster fire. You brought up Harry.

S. Truman. Yes. Uh and his low approval before  the midterms. What has happened to presidents with. this type of approval before? Okay. So, what are  the closest historical comparisons that I could. find? Well, it's these two guys. I mean, minus  15 points or worse net approval. Adam midterm. like Trump currently has. Lost the House and  lost the Senate. Yes, for this gentleman. Well, we got a colored photo of Harry S. Truman.  And yes, for George W. Bush back in 2006. So, the two historical comparisons that I think are  closest to this one, the Republican party is not.

going to like because Trump's historically low  approval rating at this point below a midterm, at least historically, has brought not just the  president down, but the House and Senate control. with it. Will disapproval of the president rub off  on Republicans running for office? With us now, CNN chief data analyst Harry Anon. So, we know the  president is unpopular. What do people think about. Republicans? Yeah, I'll tell you this much. It's  a fantasy land if you're a Republican running in. this year's midterm elections that you don't  think that President Trump's unpopularity is.

going to funnel its way down ballot because  the bottom line is this. President Trump is. bringing the Republican party down with him. You  can see it right here. Okay, let's take a look. Net favorability. The Republican party, you know,  take a look where we are right now. We're talking. about a Republican party's brand. Net favorability  28 points underwater. It is the worst ever with. a Republican in office according to Gallup. It  is significantly worse. Look at this where we. were back in November of 2024. Republican brand  wasn't too hot to drop, but it wasn't awful. It.

was basically breaking even with a minus 4 point.  We're talking about what is that Johnny B? That is. a 24 point shift in the wrong direction. And where  were we in the fall of 2018? The Republican party, again, not too hot to try, but just seven points  under. We're talking about this Republican party, get this, being 21 points worse off right now  than they were during Trump's first midterm. And this is the worst ever with the Republicans.  It is the worst ever with a Republican president. and is the highest GOP unfavorable rating ever,  regardless of the president. Okay. Give us a.

little more historical perspective here. Yeah.  Okay. So, you see this minus 28 point, right? you go to yourself and then that minus four point  right back in November ofuh 2024 this is the big. difference right I think there's this whole idea  out there that the Democratic brand stinks but. I'll tell you if the Democratic brand stinks the  Republican brand is garbage because take a look. at this okay okay which party had a higher net  favorability back in November of 2024 look at this. Republicans were leading by 14 points they their  net favorability was 14 points higher than the. Democratic party's net favorability look at this  now the Democrats actually have 17 point advantage.

on net favorability according to Galp. And indeed,  I was looking at all the polls I could find with. the exception of just one poll dating back the  last few months that I could find the Democrats. were leading on net favorability in all of them.  So, yeah, I mean, this isn't a bad favorability. if you're comparing it to where the Republicans  were where they had a good election, right? Okay. When the Dems have when the Democrats have this  type of lead in favorability, what has happened. historically? Yeah. I I I don't like these nugs to  be abstract, right? I want him. Does this actually.

tell us anything about where we might be heading  come election night? And let's take a look here. You can see it right here. Premidterms party's net  favorability. When you have a Republican president. and the Dems had at least a 10-point lead on net  favorability over the Republicans, look at this. There are two years that pop out. We got this  year and of course you got 2006 and Johnny B. What. happened in 2006? Big Democratic year. Took the  House and the Senate. Exactly. Right. Okay. So, what are the prediction markets saying will  happen this time? Yeah. Okay. So, will we get.

a repeat of 2006 when Democrats took back the  United States House and Senate? Well, according. to the Couch Prediction Market, chance that the  Dems win both the House and the Senate. You know, at the beginning of the year, it was just a 31%  chance. We're now double that, a 64% chance. So, the bottom line is this. We still have an election  in a few weeks. 64% is a far away from 100%. But. you'd much rather be the Democrats at this point  than the Republicans when it comes to the midterm. elections. It's the voters who did not cast a  ballot in 2024. And that group could ultimately.

prove to be the decisive factor in a number of  key races. And you could see it right here. Their. views on President Trump. Oh my goodness gracious.  It is a different world from where we were back. in 2024. Voters who didn't cast the ballot in  2024, Trump's net approval rating just after that. election. Look at this. His net approval rating  was plus four points for his plans for office. Look at where we are right now. Oh my god. -62  points. Johnny B. That is a very very unlucky 66.

point decline going in the wrong direction. Voters  who did not cast a ballot in 2024. They were. like so so now they are decisively against the  president of the United. It has to be a key target. for Democrats. They have to get these people  to the polls. If they can, it will clearly pad. their margins. What are these voters saying about  some of the key issues? Yeah. I mean, what what. is driving this? What is driving this absolutely  massive decline for Donald Trump? Well, how about. just inflation? Look at this. Wow. Wow. Wow. Is  the name of the game. I like to put numbers on.

the screen that I can get to in just two hands.  10%. 10%. That is the percentage of voters who. did not cast a ballot in 2024 who approve of  the job that Donald John Trump is doing on the. key issue of the day. 10%. And look at this. When  you're in Michael Irvin's number for a percentage, you know it is either really good or really bad.  In this case, it is really bad. 88% of voters who. did not cast the ballot in 2024 disapprove of  the job that Donald John Trump is doing on the.

key issue of the day inflation. 10 very bad terms  of approval. I mean, that is the moonlanding line. You know, the percentage of Americans who think  we faked the moonlander. You don't want to be. there. And then 88% disapprove. Atrocious. I  will say you and I both keep calling them the. voters. They may not be. That is going to be the  key for Democrats is to make them voters because. again these margins will clearly help them. So in  the race for Congress, how are these people? Yes,

I'm not going to call them voters. How are these  people feeling? How are these people How are these. people feeling? Well, we're going to look at those  who are actually likely to turn out and vote. That I think is the key measure, right? And you  can see it here. Take a look here. Okay. Voters. who didn't cast a ballot in 2024. The choice for  House margin. Look at this. Plus 25 points. What. about in the key Senate races? Right in those red  states. Those red states getting those voters off. the sideline. Look at this. A 21 point lead for  Democrats in those very tight races. It could.

prove to be quite decisive indeed. Those voters  getting them off the sidelines and into the ballot. booth. You talked about Michael play for the  Dallas Cowboys. I believe in Taran County. I think. the stadiums in Arlington Taran County. I believe.  Yes. But that's neither here nor there. The point. is what are the prediction markets saying about  Texas right now? Yeah. You got to go outside of. Dallas to see it. All right. Chance to win the  Texas Senate race. James Telerico, according. to the cash prediction market, 64% chance. Ken  Paxton just a 36% chance. This 64% chance could. become 100% election night if the polls are right  about those voters who didn't cast a ballot in.

2024 getting off the sidelines and voting for  this gentleman on the screen right here. And. that's one of the groups of voters James Herico is  trying to reach when he's out there campaigning. Let's talk about the vice president who is  putting his own political capital on the line. in these midterm elections. How's he doing? Yeah,  I would just say ain't nobody's buying that line. of reasoning. Americans think there's a lack of  reasoning in that argument. I I mean, you could. just see it right here. I mean, just take a look  at J. D. Vance's net favorability rating. You go. back to the beginning of his vice presidency, you  could see it right here. He was three points above.

water. Hey, three points. You're on the positive  side of ledger. But down he goes in a lake eerie. to use a nice body of water in his home state  to minus 15 points. That's a switcheroo Johnny. B of 18 points in the wrong directions. And of  course I know Johnny B likes my little nuggets. at the bottom of the screen. His net favorability  among independents has gone from about zero which. ain't too great but ain't too awful to now about  minus 30 points with independents going the wrong. way. The vice president of the United States is  just leave the bottom of the screen. That's all.

I have to say about that. Let's talk about  where this fits in historical perspective. Where does this fit in historical perspective?  So you see this minus 15 points. All right, let's put in historical perspective. Look at  other vice presidents at this point in their. vice presidency and you could see it here. The  lowest number on your screen among Republican vice. presidents is JD Vances minus 15 points here.  Mike Pence was actually above water plus one. Dick Cheney obviously the Iraq war and obviously  before that 9/11 plus 41 points. We were thinking.

about going to Iraq. Then Dan Quail who formally  formerly held the lowest point. When you think. about GOP vice presidents that the American  people don't like, you think of Dan Quayle, but the minus 15 points. JD Vance even beats Dan  Quail. And then of course George Herbert Walker. Bush at plus 10 points. Very different from the JD  Vance at minus 15 points. So JD Vance by far the. least popular Republican vice president at this  point in a vice presidency. One of these things. is not like the other in terms of the pulling, but  surely he's doing well in his home state of Ohio.

You know what? Maybe you could say, "Yeah, exactly  right. Surely you could send him to Ohio." But no, he's not really helpful in Ohio. Look at this.  Look at JD Vance's net favorability in Ohio. He's now even underwater there. Seven points  underwater in his home state of Ohio. He's. deep under the Ohio River. Look at this. Back  when he was, of course, elected vice president, he was at plus five. This is a switcheroo of  12 points in the wrong direction. And again, my little nugget at the bottom of your screen,  minus 38 points with pure independence. He. simply put is not helpful nationally and he's  not even helpful in his own home state. So,

there's no question he's out there to elect  Republicans in 2026. But there's also really. no question that he's got his eye when they're  open on 2028. Yeah, we got sad Vance. We got sad. prediction market saying about his chances.  Yeah, what about his chances in 20 Okay, chance that Vance wins the 2028 presidential  election. You know, a year ago, he was at 33%. according to the cash prediction market. That's  people putting their money where their mouths are. You could see it right here. 22% chance. So J.  D. Vance as he's become less popular nationwide. His chances of becoming the next president have  also fallen as well. Of course, at this point,

I think most of our eyes are focused in on the  United States Senate. Right? That's really what. I think the question sort of is at this point.  And I want you to take a look at some key Senate. race Demole margins. Look at this. These are all  states that Donald Trump won by 10 points just two. years ago. And look at this. They're competitive  in Kansas, which of course hasn't had a Democratic. senator since 1932, or winning one. Iowa up by  a point though, well within the margin of error. Texas, James Talerico, three-point advantage  in Texas, but again, very, very close. Alaska,

Mary Pollah, we're talking about three-point  lead there. And then Ohio, Sherid Brown up. by four. And these are all in states that Donald  Trump won by at least 10 points back in 2024. So, what we're seeing is those national leads that  Democrats are having, including in our own CNN. poll, seem to be funneling down to the state level  in these key Senate races. I I need the history. here. So, how how have polls with Democrats  leading Trump? Yeah. One in Trump won states, how have they performed normally? Okay. So, I  know a lot of our viewers, I get this question.

perhaps more than any other question, which is,  can we trust the polls? We feel like we've seen. this song or we've seen this dance before. We've  heard this song before. And you know what? There. is reason to be cautious. There is reason to be  cautious. Trust no one. Trust no one. Trust no. one. Trust me and trust my mother. She was a great  doctor. That's what I'm talking about here. There. is a reason why you should in fact be nervous  if you're a Democrat and perhaps be, you know, there's some reason for a little excitement  if you're a Republican. GOP outperformed the.

final Senate poll averages. I want you to look  by the states prior presidential result. airgo. blue states, the states that Trump lost, and then  the red states that Trump won. Look at this. The. GOP is far more likely to outperform their final  Senate poll averages by 4.1 points in the states. that Trump won. And we know in this election  cycle, Kate, that the Democrats need to win in a. lot of Trump states in order to win control of the  Senate. And not just Trump states, but states that.

Trump won by double digits back in 2024. So you  see this 4.1. If this was fought in blue states, we really have not seen that Republicans  outperform their polls in the blue states. It's really concentrated in the red states. We  saw it in 2018. We saw it in 2020. We saw it in. 2022. We saw it in 2024 as well. What's the term  for this? Democratic overestimation or Republican. underestimation? That is the great question. I'm  not What do you think? I tend to think that what's. probably going on is there are some Republican  voters who are simply put not getting picked.

up by the polls. So then what does it mean for the  Senate? And what does it mean for the Senate? That. is I think the key question. If in fact in if we  have the 2026 Senate map, but you take the polling. averages and then you say that hey the Republicans  will outrun the polling averages by 4.1 points in. the states that Trump won. Look at this. This  is I think the key nugget. Republicans would. maintain control of the Senate with some room to  spare 52 to 48 because they would win in Michigan, right? They'd hold on to Ohio. They would hold  on to Texas. They would hold I'm coming to Kate's.

side of the board. They'd hold on to Alaska. Yeah.  Come back to my side of the board. So, the bottom. line is this. Yes, Democrats are ahead right now.  If the polling averages end up being the result, Democrats win control of the Senate. We have  the same average bias we've had in the past.