Top election forecaster shifts 21 races in Dems’ direction: Enten reacts

One of America's top election. forecasters, shifting 21. midterm races. in the Democratic direction. Larry Sabato. Crystal ball moving House, Senate. and governors races toward Democrats. And as John just said, right. We're a week to go here. So Larry Sabato is OutFront. So, Larry, you're shifting. 16 House races. states across the country. towards Democrats. What's driving this happening right now? A week out? Well, the very factor that John King. just identified, for one thing, you know, it's not just gas prices. It's the fact.

there's a direct correlation there. with food prices. And then on top of that, almost every day. you hear another corruption story. about the Trump White House. where Trump himself or his kids. You connect all of this. and don't forget the Iran war. You connect all of it together. and people are unhappy. And frankly, they've been unhappy for some time. And I think the reason light isn't. stabilizing, to use John's term, is that people already. made up their minds. That's why so many. people have voted early.

I mean, the early vote numbers. obviously are pretty incredible. in state after state. I know there's three races. on the Senate map that you're moving. in the Democratic direction. Those are North Carolina, South Carolina. and Florida and all to differing degrees. Right, I guess, Larry. So if we could look at South. Carolina, Senator Darlene Graham's race. got moved from likely Republican. to lean Republican, of course, running against Danny Anders. What are the chances that Democrats. take back. control of the Senate next week? Where do you stand on that tonight? As we as we sit now.

and not knowing what Trump. is going to pull in. October surprises. plural in a number of states. and it will happen in the last week. I would say. Democrats have a pretty good chance. of getting 51 or 52 seats. And there'll be a lot of people. who are watching who are saying, it's 55. That's what I hear constantly. Now, I'd say. 5152 is a pretty. good guess for right now. All right. And you just move. two governors races. Democratic direction as well, Arizona and Vermont. In Arizona, that's the Democratic incumbent, Katie Hobbs, the governor.

there, her race. going from lean Democratic. to likely Democratic. And, you know, we've been hearing a lot in Arizona. I mean, some people. trying to make the case of, oh, well, Arizona's, you know, less of the Democratic push. than other places. Obviously, what you're. what you're showing here. would indicate otherwise. What's driving the shift? What's driving. the shift. is that the Republicans in Arizona. have not adapted to the changes. in the Arizona population, and they continue to be obsessed. with 2020. And some of the more extreme characters.

who insist that the election. was stolen in Arizona and other places. And until they get over that phase, if they ever do, Democrats are going to win in the state. that if you look at the numbers, the Republicans ought to be winning. six days until Election Day. And one of the nation's. premier race, Raiders. is shifting the landscape again. Larry Sabato. Crystal ball. team has just moved. 21 races more toward Democrats. That includes three Senate. races, three races. for Senate races right here in Florida,

North Carolina and South Carolina. How do these race forecasts and race. ratings translate. when it comes to actual results? Harry Enten his head. That question. is running the numbers on that for us. I think only they only sort of. got my run in there. I was trying to get even a that it was a. it was an old man run. Okay. And the bottom line is by the time. this election's over and be 120, it was a spry trot. There we go. How set the landscape for us. How much has have.

the race ratings shifted. this since last year? Yeah, I think it's so important. We're going to look at the House today. because I think the Senate, we've all have our eyes. focused in on the Senate. I think the House, you know it. It's half of Congress, in fact, are more members of the House. than there are in. the United States Senate. And I just think it's so notable. You know, you need 218 seats. Take a look at this House seats. at least leaning Democratic. I'm averaging the Cook Political Report. And Sabato is crystal ball here. You know, a year ago it was 206 206. You need 218 in order to get a majority. Look at it now.

Up like a rocket. We're now talking 223 seats. This is north of the 218. that Democrats need to take back the U.S. House of Representatives. And what I should note. is these House races, historically, they've actually been. rather conservative. There are still 17. or they're in about races. that are tossups. So Democrats right now. in a very strong position, not just to get 218 seats, but to get plenty north of there. So this is 2026. But what about past midterms. at this point in the cycle? How does that number. Yeah.

So you see this 223 right here. So let's go back. We're going to jump in the Delorean. We're going to go back in time. And we're going to compare it. to other years. Take a look here okay. House seats at least leaning. Democratic in late October. Look at this. We got the 223 for the Democrats. right here. You know, in 2022. when Democrats lost their House majority, but still, you know, ended up. north of 210 seats. They were at 193. Look at this, though. In 2018 they were at just 202. And of course they had a net. gain of 40.

seats that year on their way. to a very, very comfortable majority. This is the outlier. This is the outlier. When I say these race raters. tend to be relatively conservative, they tend to keep a lot of seats. in the tossup category, and then many of those tossup seats. will go one way or the other. This is the rare outlier. in which Democrats. are very much in the seat, very much on their way to a majority. If this number holds. with historical precedent, what about. what does history say about how they. and how they underperforming? Yeah okay. See it underperform where I was.

Yeah okay. Underperform overperform. just perform. I sometimes I just want to just perform. 223 seats here. That is. well more than the 218. when Democrats got that majority I got to. I got our crew. laughing in the background. That tells me I'm pretty much on today. Okay. Opposition party in midterm elections. What are we talking about? Late October since 2006. Does the opposition party, that is the nonwhite House party. win more seats. than at least those. that are at least leaning to them? So right now, of course, Democrats, what do they have? They have 223 seats leaning to them.

Do they win more than that? Well, the opposition party. five of five times has done exactly that. So that when you see that. 223 seats, it's. most likely going to be north. Either. I am very much you're saying if it. if history tracks, that's the floor, not the ceiling. That is exactly right. The 223 is the floor, not the ceiling. I expect it to be north of there. Will it be north of 230? Some folks. and some of the mathematical models. I'm looking at suggest. it could in fact be north of 240.

There are new numbers out. in some of the most closely watched races. that could decide. who takes power in the US Senate. This 1st May offer. another round of serious. warning signs for Republicans, especially in South Carolina. A red state, for sure. The New York Times Siena poll. that was just out this morning. finds the race between. the Democratic candidate. for Senate, Andy Andrews, and Republican darling Graham. This is sister of the late. Lindsey Graham. That that race is now a toss up.

I mean, couldn't be more. toss up in this race. No clear leader, obviously. Maybe less surprising. Another race. that they're looking at this morning. The race in Florida. Republican, their senator Ashley Moody. holding a six point lead over. Angie Nixon right now. among likely voters. And in Minnesota, the New York Times says that this might. be the most surprising one of all, though. they also call an outlier. the Democratic candidate, Peggy Flanagan, up. by 14 points over. Republican Michelle Tafoya in this poll.

No other nonpartisan poll. has found Flanagan leading. by more than four points since Labor Day. So hold on to that one. just as an outlier, John. All right. With us. now, anchor of the lead. and CNN chief Washington correspondent. Jake Tapper. Good morning to you, sir. I've got this poll from South. Carolina up on my screen here. showing a dead heat. and polls do tell us a lot, but there are things beyond polls, I think, that you like to look at about. what candidates are saying, where they're going, what they're doing that.

can somehow be equally as instructive, maybe more so as to. which way races are headed. And what are you seeing. out there and looking for. you? Yeah. So a few things. One, if any of our viewers out. there are skeptical of public polls, they've been burned before, etc., you're not alone. Public polls are great little snapshots, but they are not predictors, of anything. And so what I tend to do is look at what. the politicians are doing,

where they're going. and where they're spending their money. So for example, President Trump, when it comes to South Carolina. in that race, showing it. neck and neck between, Darlene Graham and Doctor Annie Andrews. President Trump. was in South Carolina last week. in Pendleton, and he's going back. to South Carolina tomorrow, to Rock Hill. That says to me that the race is tight, that says to me that President Trump. thinks he needs to go out there. and actually get his people to the polls.

When he says, pretend I'm on the ballot, he means that he's talking to those low. propensity voters that turn out for him. and tend to sit out the midterms. It's the same reason. why he went to Michigan, to Clair County. That's a county that he won. by more than 30 points. I think. But remember two years ago. when Mike Rogers, the current. Senate nominee in Michigan, ran, and lost. more than 100,000 people voted for Trump, and didn't vote, for him at all.

So Trump again, trying to rally his people to the polls. So that's the first thing I look at. Where are the big dogs going? Likewise, Obama went to Detroit. You just had, Sarah just had a long conversation. about the black vote. and the Democratic candidates. But also, he had difficulty. getting black voters, to support him, to trust him. That's why Obama was in Detroit, normally. two weeks before the election, one week. before an election. Neither. Michigan should not be a place. that a Democrat has to go.

And like Obama. and South Carolina. should not be a place. that a Republican has to go like Trump. So that's one thing I'm looking at. The second thing to point out, Jake, let me just point. I can point out he's just a. I can just point out. what you're talking about here. This is Wayne County, this is Detroit, where President Obama was. And you can see. this is a county. that Kamala Harris won. by 29 points last time. And just to put some meat on. is what you're talking about. Clare County. Absolutely. Clare County. a county. he won by 38 points Donald Trump did. just two years ago.

So go to campaign. in a place where he did very, very well. I didn't mean to interrupt, but I just wanted to show people. you're talking about there. No, no, it's great. But I. mean, that's. the point is you look where they're going. and the fact that Mike Rogers. is not distancing himself from Trump, even though you and I know Mike Rogers, he used to be a commentator on CNN. Before that, he was a member of Congress, chairman. of the House Intelligence Committee. He is generally a more moderate. kind of Republican. But that's not how he's campaigning. He's campaigning as a Maga Republican.

And that's this is. his strategy. is to get the Trump people. to vote for him. When Trump says. pretend I'm on the ballot, that's what he means. And Mike Rogers is saying, yes, absolutely. That's my ticket to winning. The other thing to look at is. where are the politicians who have access. to much more intense. voter data than public polls do? Where are they putting money. and where are they taking money out of? When the. Republicans take money. out of the congressional district of Tom. Kean, Jr in New Jersey,

when they take money. out of the Republican, Senate race in North Carolina or Georgia, that is a vote of no confidence. And then when they send it to Kansas. or they send it to South Carolina again, that is saying, oh my God, we need to buck up these people. in traditionally Republican states. And, we need to make sure, that, that they have everything they need. because this race is. tighter than I thought. Same thing with Democrats sending money, to Michigan or to Maine. And then the last thing, John, is I look at.

who is acting desperate, who is acting, who is making wild, crazy accusations. Trump calling Abdullah Siad a jihadist. or saying he has to go. through a metal detector. to get onto the floor of the Senate. Vivek Rama Swami's, ad against Amy Acton. These are last minute. fear mongering plays, that suggest. that they're not confident in competing. on an actual battleground of ideas. So those are the three things I look at. But ultimately, as I'm sure you are the same way.

when it comes to election night, I have no idea what's going to happen. I'm not counting on one result. or another, and we'll all be up to the voters, and it's actually one of the most. exciting things to cover. Because the polls are away. and the pundits are away. and the predictions are away, and it's just actually real. people casting their ballots.