'This is earth-shattering': Enten & panel unpack new CNN Texas polls
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1.7M viewsBrand new polling out of Texas. In the latest CNN poll, James Talerico, the Democrat, has a six-point lead. Just how unusual is that? With us now, CNN chief data an analyst Harry And so six points for a Democrat with days before the election. This. is earthshattering earthquake stuff. I mean, I literally feel, not literally, but I do feel. the ground beneath me shaking. I mean, this is what we're talking about. I mean, look at this. We're talking about James Terico up six points. This is the best Democratic Senate polling since.
Lloyd Benson won in Texas. What was that? That was 38 years ago. We're talking 1988. My goodness. gracious. We're talking about a clear what is it? 21 point advantage among independents. You know, they talk about Texas turning blue in the past, but there's never been polling like this. James. Telerico in a historically strong position for a Democrat in the great state of Texas. It's a poll, but no Democrat has ever led by this much this late since 1988. That is exactly right. It is.
a poll. The voters will have their say in a few days, but this poll is the best polling. that we've seen for a Democrat since 1988 running for Senate in Texas. So, they look favorably on. James Telerico. How are Texas voters looking upon the Republican Ken Paxton? Yeah, you're talking. about earthshattering earthquake stuff. I mean, the least popular Texas GOP Senate nominee this. century. I mean, look at this. Kent Paxton is 29 points underwater. He's lower than the Rio Grand.
Valley in Texas. My goodness gracious. He's down there in the Gulf of Mexico or Gulf of. America if we're talking Trump's language here. Kempact's a historically unpopular candidate, which has helped leading to James Telerico's historically strong polling for a Democrat in. Texas. Okay. What's one of the big factors here? What is one of the other big factors here besides. Kemp Paxton being so gosh darn unpopular? How about Donald John Trump? I mean, just take a. look here. Republican president's net approval rating in Texas around this point in a term.
Look at this. 18 points underwater. I mean, he's President Trump is joining Ken Paxton down there. swimming in the Gulf of America or Gulf of Mexico, depending on your political persuasion. I mean, this is the most unpopular Republican president at this point in a term this century. Way more. unpopular than Trump was in term number one at this point. He's 21 points more unpopular. than he was in term number one at this point. George W. Bush was a point underwater. Of course, he was going adios amigos. Goodbye. See you later in those midterms. Republicans,
of course, lost both the House and the Senate. And way more unpopular than Bush. was coming off a 9/11 at plus 40 points. So, we see Donald Trump being historically unpopular. compactton being historically unpopular for a Republican Senate nominee in Texas. And you. put that together and you get Democrats in their best position to win a United States Senate seat. in the great state of Texas since 1988. And Lloyd Benson Harry, thank you very much for that. With. 5 days until election day, a new CNN poll shows Texas tilting toward Democrats in the Senate race.
Democrat James Telerico holds a narrow edge over Republican Ken Paxton, picking up support among. groups President Trump won in 2024. Texas has not elected a Democrat in a statewide race in. three decades. So, let's go live now to CNN senior national correspondent Ed Lavendera in Dallas. Ed, how does this poll line up with what you're hearing on the ground there from voters? Well, it it is interesting. You know, you're see definitely seeing a great deal of enthusiasm.
for James Tarico, but this story of Democrats hoping to turn Texas blue is an old story. It always kind of has the same endings and it's disappointment for Democrats. But uh that is one. of the reasons why anytime you talk to a Democrat, they are very cautious and kind of hesitant uh to. accept that that there is a chance that Jay Alico could win this race. It's been more than 30 years, as you mentioned, that a Democrat has won statewide here. Uh but what this poll shows. that with Terico with a 49 to 43 lead according to the CNN poll. But if you look dip deeper into.
these numbers, the unfavorable ratings for Ken Paxton way higher than James Terico's unfavorable. ratings. And then the other thing to look at here is that Terico appears to be doing much better. with Latino voters, voters of color. And that is significant because Donald Trump just two years. ago did extremely well with Latino voters in the state, winning many of the counties, for example, in down in the Rio Grand Valley along the US southern border. Um, if James Terico turns that.
around, that could be uh a deciding factor in this race as well. This is what the candidates Paxton. and Terico are telling voters here in the final days of this campaign. I think Texans are going. to decide this. If we don't hold on to Texas, we're going to lose America and Chuck Schumer. is going to run the Senate. Texans are ready for change. We are welcoming everybody, Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike, into this movement to take back power for working people.
and Pamela, uh, Republicans that I've talked to, strategists and voters as well, is that they're. very concerned that because Paxton is seen as this controversial figure, uh, and and has a checkered. political career here in the state, that there are many Republicans who are either going to stay home. and not vote or just sit out that particular race on the ballot. So, that was something that we'll. watch closely here in the next coming days leading up to election day as well, Pamela. All right, Ed, thanks so much. Appreciate it. We've got this just in a brand new CNN poll showing James Telico with.
a narrow lead over Ken Paxton among likely voters. This is just with five days to go and it comes as. a new ad suggests lifelong Texas Republicans have permission to break rank and vote for Tel. Rico. I'm a Republican. I'm a Republican. I'm a Republican. And I'm passing on Ken Paxton. And. I'm passing on Ken Paxton. And I am passing on Ken Paxton. I truly believe that he is the most. corrupt politician Texas has ever seen. Ken Paxton is just far too corrupt for Texas. Kyle Condic,
managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at is it Sabado? Sabat. It's Sabados Crystal at the. UVA Center for Politics joins the group chat. I'll always do that wrong. Sorry, Larry. Um, okay. I feel like we've had this discussion before about whether voters care that Republicans who. don't like Trump or a Trump affiliate candidate support a Democrat and the voting population does.
not seem to care about this world of people. But is there something different about Texas? I think there is something different. I think you do see it in the polling because you do have. kind of a baseline as to where, you know, other Republicans are doing. you know, Greg Abbott, I don't know if the governor race was asked about in this poll, but Greg Abbott is usually, you know, he's usually leading a little bit where Ken Paxton is usually down a little bit. And so, I think there there are people who are Republicans who plan to vote a mostly Republican ticket who. either aren't vote, you know, they're not voting for Ken Paxton or they're actively voting for. James Tel. And then you feel like, well, since I supported everyone on the team, maybe it's okay.
that I don't support this guy. Yeah. And and look, I think if you know, if John Cornin, the incumbent. who lost the primary, was on the was on the ballot, maybe he'd be doing as well as Abbott is. doing. Every single person who sat in the seat for the last two months has said that exact sentence. But I but I think it's I think it's true. I I I do think there's also this tendency to say, "Oh, well John Corner be winning by a ton." No, because part of the thing here is I I remember talking to. somebody about, you know, Paxton. He's like, "Oh, Paxton's dragging down the ticket." Well, Trump's. dragging down the ticket, I think, over I mean, just just in a in a general sense because I think.
if the political environment was better, a lot of these Republicans would be just doing better. So, to your point, I'm just going to put up there the choice for Texas governor, no clear leader. Just to your point about Abbott right now, who is still within the margin of error of a GAOSA. Um, in the meantime, I want to also note about Latino voters. Uh here's an example because obviously. every reporter worth their salt is going down to Texas and down. Here's an example out of Macallen. I used to be able to fill my my tank for like $20 for the whole week. Now I got to do for like.
40 police itself, you know? Like it seems like they have all this power and no regards for any. laws. The money and stuff. I've seen it like a lot with my parents how like like gas prices, grocery. prices, how like before it was way easier. prices will come down dramatically. Are you okay with the. ICE detentions here with immigration enforcement? Yes. Okay. So, see that mix? I'm okay with this. part. Actually, I'm disappointed in the money. It's not clear that Republicans have captured the.
community they redistricted to hold on to. Well, you look at the presidential results down in South. Texas in 2024. And even in 2020, there was a lot of growth for Republicans in in that part of the. state. And yet it seems like there's a there's a swing back toward the Democrat among Latino voters. 55% uh for Trump at that time, right? And you know there are three really important house races down. there. Two of them held by Democrats. Henry Quer of Cinte Gonzalez and then Monica de la Cruz, a Republican trying to hang out against Bobby Pledo, a singer who's been one of the kind of star.
candidates had on the show. Yeah. And I mean I I actually think Dea Cruz is probably an underdog. at this point. Um, the Texas Tribune looking at early voting numbers, they're saying that the rate. is slightly behind 2018 and that's when Betto Oor was challenging Ted Cruz. Uh, should Democrats be. worried this is far closer than all the hype and media discussion is leading us to believe? I mean, Texas is a red state and I I worked at Governor's Race in Texas. You always have the hope of turning.
it blue and it breaks your heart every single time. So, Democrats should obviously be worried. that we're not as close in the polling. We've seen, as we've talked about many times today, the polling is not reliable enough, I think, to write any victory speeches here. That's for sure. I think people need to get out. Sorry. People need to continue to get out to vote and the Democrats. need to go through the tape to get their race out to vote. Well, I think that's why you have. Trump going to red states. You got Obama going to blue states because they've got to get those. they've got to get their their voting blocks out. I guess my one question is I don't understand how.
like crystal ball can do their work this year and I'm a one I'm a one message pony today with. this polling being so horrible this year. So one race I'm involved in they have to call a. thousand people to get one responded. I talked to a Democrat pollster. He said his response rate is. 1.5%. Which means 98.5% of people are rejecting him. And yet you crystal ball and the Cook Report. and all of these folks are basing their stuff on polling. Uh right now we had in our polling.
voters of color in Texas of color. That's like a big mix, right? Who supported Trump in 24. Who are they supporting now? We've got 22% uh Tal Rico and then in the corner I see margin. of error plus or minus 11. Well, and it goes I think if you just take the polls at face value, you'd say Democrats are going to win the Senate. And look, maybe that's what's going to happen. But. I do think you have to be cautious about about the possibility particularly, you know, we know. that the economist had a had some good research about this. Patrick Rafini, a Republican pollster,
has talked about this that, you know, Republicans can be understated a little bit in red states, Democrats can be overstated a little bit in blue states. So maybe that helps explain why like the. Minnesota Senate race feels a little bit closer, although New York Times had that as a big lead for. Peggy Flanigan yesterday. But that, you know, and also you just think about it, if you have. like a 4545 poll, know that's what these these polls are showing the Democrats ahead narrowly, but you know, 455 poll in a red state. Well, who are the undecideds? Well, they're probably, you know, three-time Trump voters who are maybe a little little skittish on the Republicans this.
year, but you might expect them to come home. So, you know, you you do have to make some g I. guess guesses or assumptions about calling it a crystal ball. Well, yeah. But I mean, hey, you know, it's it's it's hard, but you again, if you just take the polls at face value, I mean, the Democrats really are leading in all these key races at least by a little bit. Now, some. of them are really close, but in the red states, I I just worry about from a analytical perspective, you know, thinking, oh yeah, the Democrats are going to win in these states that voted for Trump. by double digits. And then you get there and it's like, well, they all lose by two points. And like.
that really that I I think that that could happen. Scenario, any win is an upset. an expected, you know, and it's the environment really seems terrible for Republicans. And again, yet it it. may just be hard to win these states. Um, but, you know, I mean, the Dem Democratic odds of. winning the Senate, I just think have just grown and grown. I remember it started started thinking. at the at the start of the cycle if the Democrats could net two to, you know, to get from 47 to 49, that that would be a successful cycle given what the map was. And here we are, you know,
right before the election talking about, wow, the Senate really is on the table. Okay, Kyle, thank you so much for being here. In the situation room is inviting Democratic and Republican state. party chairs as we countdown to the midterms. And right now, we're joined by Texas Democratic. Party Chair Kendall Scutter. Hi, Kendall. Great to have you on. So, our new poll is out. We've been. talking about it. How are you feeling about your party's chances here? You know, uh, cautiously. optimistic. We're things look like they're going pretty well here, but we're just keeping our heads. down, working really hard every day, trying to turn every Democrat out to vote that we can. Uh.
the chips are going to fall where they fall on election day and the day after. No matter what. happens, I'm going to be loading signs and Tpost in the back of my pickup truck and recruiting. candidates for the next one. Democrats didn't lose Texas overnight. I don't think we're going to win. it overnight. This is a long-term game that we're playing here. Uh and so we're just we're just. really excited to be in this and and excited for the opportunity that looks like it's ahead of us. in in uh on election day next Tuesday. So how much is support for Terico about his message.
versus being against Ken Paxton or President Trump in your view? Well, I think the Democrats are in. the middle of a perfect storm right now. James Telerico is a very positive candidate that I think. offers a lot for this state. you know, the first bill he wants to file is sweeping anti-corruption. reform, which is a big deal to Texans who feel like their entire government has just been bought. on a giant grift. Uh, but comparatively, you also see on the other side particularly bad candidates, not just in Ken Paxton, but up and down their slate. I mean, Greg Abbott has been governor.
for 12 years in this state. Yet, he says that if you give him another four years, he's going to. make all your dreams come true. The guy's raised our property taxes 85% since he's been in office. Uh, you have Dan Patrick who's trying to lock people up for 99 years for having THC. Uh, and then you have Bo French, an overt racist that's running on the ticket. I mean, the. Republicans have nominated some real real special choices there. Uh, and Democrats have a fantastic. slate of problem solvers ready to make life better for regular people. I think it's uh, it's it's all.
kind of this perfect storm. I think both of those items can be true. So in CNN's poll, Telerico. has the support of 63% of Latino likely voters in the state. Now this is a group, as you well know, President Trump carried in 2024. How much of this do you think has to do with immigration and. tactics used by the Trump administration? Well, I I think certainly is is a large player there. I mean, those communities, particularly in South Texas, have just been demonized and ripped apart.
by federal agents who are masked and and there's citizens have no recourse down there for what's. happening in their communities. But I also think that it plays into all of the failed economics. of the Trump administration. Donald Trump sold everyone a false bill of goods. He lied to them to. become president. He did what billionaires do. He exploited their labor. He prayed on their fears. He used them as a means to an end and then discarded them. He said he was going to make life.
more affordable on day one. Life's more expensive. He said that he was going to end the Ukraine war. on day one. He's gotten us into more international entanglements. He's a liar and the people in in. uh in Hispanic communities across Texas know that and they're feeling it in their pocketbooks. And. so certainly the immigration uh issues are are prevalent, but I think the economic issues are. very salient here as well. So, Taler Rico, for his part, committed to spending $25 million on turning.
out black voters. Democratic state rep. Jalanda Jones says black voters are not feeling the force. of that investment. They're not seeing where it's being spent. And this includes Harris County, which, as you know, has a large black population. It's a county where Democrats need to overperform. Did Talico actually make this investment for black voters? And if so, where did that money. go? Why aren't these voters feeling it? Well, I'm sorry to hear that, Rep. Jones feels that way and. I know that she's a fantastic advocate for for the Houston community and we're lucky to have her. Um,
on questions of direct expenditures from the campaign, you'll have to reach out to the campaign. on that. But what I do know is that they've been investing very heavily in turnout in all. communities across Texas in a 254 county strategy. Um, we've seen record levels of investments that. have happened um throughout Dallas, throughout Houston. Uh, and I have no doubt that those funds. have actually been spent in black communities. the exact dollar amount. I don't know what that. is. U but here's the thing. I'm hoping that the results of this speaks for itself. Uh that.
when we get past election day, we'll see that these surges that are happening in communities, including minority communities across Texas, uh are a consequence of the investments that the. candidate and that the party have been making for the last year and a half. As we wrap up, I just want to ask this final question. We've been asking all the the state chairs. Will you. commit to accepting the certified results of next Tuesday's elections regardless of the outcome? Of. course. Uh Texas Democrats are the weeble of American politics. We get knocked down and.
we pop right back up. Uh we're we're used to to fighting back even in really tough territories. Sometimes elections don't go your way. I think we have great opportunity ahead of us on Tuesday. Uh. but regardless, we're going to be working really hard for the next one because this movement for. workingclass people all across Texas to get back control of this government. It's not something. that happens overnight. It's something that we're going to do over extended election cycles and. uh you know, we'll we'll see what that result is, but we'll certainly accept the result of.
that. Uh and and we'll be very um aware of any dirty tricks Republicans may be playing. uh leading up to and beyond election day. All right, Kendall Scutter, thank you so.