'The Senate is very much in play': Enten & panel unpack tight races

a closer look at some of the most vulnerable  Senate races. Harry, yeah, you know, Anderson, when we started off this year, I I don't think  that most people thought that the Senate was. really going to be in play, but where we are right  now, the Senate is very much in play. I mean, just take a look here. Take a look at the right  now in essentially if you have the toss-up states, at least 47 Dem seats are leaning to the  Democrats. You got 46 seats leaning to the. Republicans. And of course, Democrats need 51.  Republicans need 50, of course, because Vice. President Pence would break the tie. But at this  point, what are we seeing in the polling? Well,

to me, what is so interesting is if we see the  polling averages, look how tight these races. are. I mean, my goodness gracious. You really  can't get tighter than this. I mean, Kansas, which of course no Democrat has won since 32.  That's a tie. Iowa, which Trump won by double. digits, Democrats by one. Maine, Democrats by  two. Again, well within the margin. Texas, which. of course hasn't elected Democrat to the Senate  since 1988. Plus three for the Dems. Michigan, very tight three. and Ohio plus four with  Sheriff Brown's trying to reclaim his seat.

But I think the thing to take away from this is  that the Democrats do in fact hold even a nominal. advantage in these states. And what happens if all  of these polls are right? Well, I'll tell you this. much. We can take Maine, we can turn it blue, we  can turn Ohio blue, we can turn Michigan blue, we can turn Iowa blue, and we can turn Texas blue.  And there's also Alaska polling turning blue. So, if the polling is exactly right, Anderson, the  Democrats will be on their way to a majority. The question is, will the polling be exactly  right? Yeah. Well, I mean, we've all seen this.

story before. What does history say about the  accuracy of polling, particularly when it comes. to how Republicans vote in Senate races? Yeah.  Sometimes it feels like deja vu all over again, Anderson. Right. It feels like I'm Yogi Bear  and we've seen this story before. And indeed, we have seen this story before because take a  look at this. Okay. How about the GOP in the Trump. era? GOP outperformed their final Senate poll  averages in the states that Trump has won. Look.

at this. They've outperformed on average by 4.1  points. And of course, Democrats need to win a. slew of states that Donald Trump not just won  in 2024, but won by double digits. Of course, we're talking about states like Texas, states  like Alaska, states like Iowa, states like Ohio. So what happens if we get the exact same polling  error this time around? Well, what happens? Hello, this is what happens. We get Republicans actually  holding on. So the question ultimately is,

is the polling going to be right this time around  or Republicans going to outperform like they have. in the past? If they have, Republicans hold on. If  the polling is right on, the Democrats head to a. majority. Anderson, I don't know what's going to  happen. I don't know. That's why we got to watch. Harry Anton, thanks very much. And participate  back now with the panel. Thanks so much. Um, what do you think is going to happen? I don't  know. Do you believe the polling? Do you believe. I mean I'm so I just feel so skeptical of all  this. Um, the way that I answer that is to. believe the way Republicans are behaving. And when  we see the president, never mind going to Iowa,

which he has crushed in the last decade. Um, never  mind going to Kansas, which was like has not been. on the Senate map for almost a century. He's  going to Mississippi. You know what that means? Mississippi. So regardless of what the polls show  or don't show, the Republicans are nervous enough. to send the president of the United States to  one of the reddest states. Oh, and by the way, I'm forgetting Alaska. Reest states a week and a  half before the election. So I think that's the.

best way to answer. Lauren, you said skeptical.  I'm cynical about polls. Um, some of them recently. are outright fake as we saw with Wedgewood. Then  we have the issue that actually most polling firms. can't tell the difference between AI bots taking  an online survey and humans. That's another can. of worms. And all of those weaknesses that  Harry uh very aptly pointed out are in favor. of Democrats. Republicans are not participating  in polls. A lot of in the election. Yeah. They.

don't have an idea of what a likely voter looks  like right now in Michigan or in Maine or Alaska. So, I think when there is uncertainty this time  around, it's in the favor of Republicans. But, of course, structural advantages for Democrats  across the board. I just don't know if they're. going to get there in the Senate. Yeah. What  makes me nervous is that the Republicans are. really good at data targeting. They know how to  find voters. They know what to say to those voters. to get them to move. They don't do it necessarily  by demographics or they really look at what's.

motivating people based on their behavior and they  go out and turn them around. And if the president. has figured out that there are some voters in  these states that they just need to get motivated. and he can go there and get them excited and say  things that'll make them move, then you could see. Republicans closing this gap and Democrats might  not have as good a night as they want. But man, they are really up against a wave against a big  wave of sentiment where the president's unpopular. with general election uh voters and Republicans  are unpopular too. Pete, I mean, do you think just.

from a political strategy perspective, should  the president stop saying at all these rallies. that America is in a golden age or that and the  prices are down when when they're not? Yeah. He. needs to start being realistic about his message,  but he's playing to the crowd. He's playing to his. strengths. He loves to amp people up, and part of  it is turnout. They enjoy seeing him. They enjoy. being part of the spectacle. And I want President  Trump to go to the places where he's going to make.

a positive impact. And I want him to stay far far  away from the places where he's going to be a drag. on Republican candidates. I trust his political  team is not just throwing darts at a map and. shipping him off to places wherever those darts  land. They know where he can make a difference. And in some of these races where where Republicans  are in competitive tight races and they win by one. two 3% and he showed up that margin of victory  will probably be as a result of Donald Trump.

campaigning there. D I mean you've covered a lot  of midterms. Does it feel different in some ways. or it it does uh in that the pendulum is swinging  so much faster these days in that the people's. patience is it wears thin very easily. It was only  two years ago that this very sort of um accountab. excuse me affordability message and people's  economic angst propelled Donald Trump into the.

White House. And now two years later they're like  okay not only what has happened not much but they. look at his main policies tariffs and also the  ramifications of the Iran war on the economy and. they say no this is not what we expected. It's not  just here. I mean, we're seeing elections globally. and the anti-incumbent fervor is so so strong and  it continues to sort of overturn government after.

government after government. This is a a global  anxiety postco and um we haven't really to me to. see how corruption has risen in something that  voters are really thinking about. I think was. number two in a poll we had just yesterday.  That's a drastic change. I noticed the same. thing because really for the last 10 years um  it hasn't been anywhere on voters radar and you. know I actually said the same thing during the  Hunter Biden stuff. Republicans were saying of.

course people care about corruption. I mean look  at this and it was never ever even top of the. list. Not near economics, not near abortion. Um  but now that is changing. I do think though that. it is a bipartisan issue. I think Republicans see  Democrats as corrupt and vice versa. So we have. to be careful about that. Except the billions  of dollars the president is making are really. conspicuous. I think people are paying attention  to it and they're connecting the the friends. and family benefits that are happening in this  administration to their own particular economic.