Oil profits, dueling rallies, a 'generational wipeout' & more | Erin Burnett OutFront this week

Trump is about to speak in Mississippi any  moment. As you can see the rally room there. He will defend a Republican Senate seat that has  been trending in the wrong direction for the GOP, which is part of Trump's deep red state tour.  States where Republicans should be banking on easy. wins. Tonight, as the president and his party face  growing headwinds, though, Trump is now resorting. to offering cash. And he's done that a few times  on the campaign trail. But in this specific case, it is a cash reward for finding a voter fraud.  uh voter fraud already punishable by up to five. years in prison. Uh Trump saying anybody reporting  voter fraud in the past elections or the upcoming.

2026 midterm election will be paid $1 million  upon the arrest and conviction of those that. created the fraud. Trump wrote on Truth Social  today, which follows his 1,323word screed against. comedian Bill Maher, which is his longest social  media post ever, calling Maher in part a complete. and total loser and a hopeless guy. And just to  put some context around this about the time that. the president spent on this, George Washington's  first inaugural address was only about 100 words.

longer. It took 10 whole minutes to deliver. So  today, Vice President Vance maybe realized that. a screed like that and all that time spent on  Bill Maher was not a good use of the president's. time. He wanted to refocus the conversation on  gas prices. I want to speak a little bit to the. undecided voters out there. You will hear many say  that gas prices are too high, that there's still. so much work to do on correcting the terrible  Biden inflation, the highest inflation that we.

saw in 50 years in our country, and I understand  that. I agree with it. But remember in 2022, let's just talk about gas prices. Remember in  2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and gas prices. skyrocketed? They skyrocketed, by the way, far  higher then than they are today. They skyrocket. every time some tinpot dictator decides to throw  a tantrum. First of all, according to a new CNN.

analysis of AAA data, the average price of gas  during Trump's second term is now more expensive. than it was during the Biden era, as you can see.  And here's the reason it keeps skyrocketing. It's. the war itself, but it's specifically every  time somebody specific throws a tantrum. We're going to bring them back to the stone ages  where they belong. The entire country can be taken. out in one night and that night might be tomorrow  night. We hit them hard yesterday and we're going.

to hit them again hard today. We've got to go  down there and bomb the hell out of them. And. he says those things and the prices skyrocketed.  It became the most obvious trade in the books for. traders all year long. Interesting Vance  put those words around it. But now with. the election just 8 days away, nearly 30 million  Americans have already voted, which is stunning, right? The majority of people probably will have  voted by election day. Concerns about gas prices. first and foremost, along with corruption on  their list. A new CBS poll shows that voters.

think if Republicans win the election, there  will be more corruption rather than less by. a margin of about 2 to one. 52, as you can  see, to 27%. That's an incredible margin, and that's a fear greater than if Democrats  win, as you can see. And part of the reason. why so many people may be concerned is part  of what President Trump said this weekend. I don't give a damn. I'm going to say it.  We're making a freaking fortune. Our country. is getting stronger and stronger all the time.  And those pump prices are going to come down.

You heard him. He said he's making a freaking  fortune. I mean, in fact, according to Forbes, Trump is making a fortune. About  $3 billion since he was reelected. And I'm not getting into the rest of his family  here or his insider circle or his ambassador or. anybody else. As for those pump prices that  he said will come down, the question is how, of course, and when. Trump has not been able to  do anything to change the situation fundamentally.

with gas prices. So instead, he chose to  spend that time trashing Bill Maher. And. this I looked at one hell of a beautiful ass  before Nicki Minaj. But I looked at his ass. and then I looked at his legs and my I said  his ass is [ __ ] It's like it's like a pile of. muscle. And I stood right over here and I examined  his ass and I looked and I watched up and down. I.

looked at his ass. Swear you need a comedian like  Bill Maher to make a comment about that. Kevin. Liptac, meantime, is out front in Mississippi  where Trump is expected to take the stage any. moment now. And Kevin, I know you've been talking  to voters there. What have they been telling you. ahead of Trump's visit? Yeah, and we're in  a pretty deep red part of Mississippi. So, I don't think it's a a surprise that a lot of  these voters still think pretty highly of him. They were somewhat less enthusiastic about Cindy  Hyde Smith, who is the Republican senator who the.

president is coming here to stump for. or one  young man I talked to said he actually didn't. know that much about her at all. Another woman who  said that the first few years of Trump's term were. pretty bumpy. Thought it had been pretty bumpy  for City Heightsmith as well. And neither of these. people uh were committed to voting for her, which  I think is pretty remarkable for two people who. are coming to a Trump rally. It actually was even  more striking among people who were not coming. here. You know, as I was walking around town uh  talking to people, a not insignificant number.

seemed vaguely unaware that there was an election  happening at all. And even on the entire drive. through Mississippi uh that I took earlier today,  I didn't see a single yard sign. So, it does seem. as if in addition to an enthusiasm problem, there  may be an awareness problem uh that Republicans. are fighting here as well. But something just  stood out to me from what Kevin Liptac said going. through the state. A lot of people were not aware  that there was an election. They were vaguely. aware. Okay, that's not that doesn't sound like  turnout to me. That's not good. That doesn't seem.

like you've got the the the machine revved up and  it makes sense because why in the world would you. be worried about Mississippi when you're losing  every place else? But the fact that Republicans. are actually spending money in Mississippi to not  lose a Senate seat, the fact that Donald Trump. is in Mississippi, that gives you a sense of how  big this blue wave may be. We'll see if the polls. are off, but you don't spend money in Mississippi  five, six, seven, eight days out from an election, unless you're terrified. Bill, what do you what  do you how do you see it? I mean, obviously,

there's one thing to go there. It's a safe  place for Trump, but it's another when you're. actually spending a whole lot of money because  maybe it's not so safe. Yeah. Winning Michigan. or or a pickup opportunity. It doesn't matter if  you lose Mississippi. I'd also say in in midterm. elections and off-year elections, things  are different, right? A couple years ago, the Republican Mississippi governor was reelected  by just 3%. Right? Doug Jones won in Alabama in. the 2018 2018 cycle, a Democrat. So, these are  happen. It can happen. I I'd rather be safe than. sorry. Again, pick up opportunities. Don't matter.  If you lose somewhere, you should win. I mean,

look, it it is in no way a good thing if you're  following the money that Republicans are spending. in Mississippi right now. It's not a sign  of strength. It's a sign of weakness. Um, but by the way, spending that isn't going that  well because people are only vaguely aware that. the election. I mean, that's clearly the the quote  of the night. That's where reporters on the ground. can make a big difference because no, that speaks  to a lack of enthusiasm, a lack of awareness. Um, and even even next door, I mean, you know,  Doug Jones running for governor in Alabama.

and and putting up a strong fight against Tommy  Tubberville. point is Democrats are are actually. playing offense and they're doing it with  candidates who are helping them expand the. map in places they haven't won in a long time.  That is actually a sign of of what's happening. in this election right now. It's clear that that  Donald Trump is unpopular. But in a place like. Mississippi and in Texas and in Florida, Democrats  are also really unpopular. And what you've got, especially among independents, is people  who like none of the above. And yeah, they don't like Donald Trump. Do they even know  who the Democratic candidate is? I think that's. the challenge. But squaring the circle around  corruption, I think, is the opening for whoever.

is running against a Republican. Donald Trump  is getting rich and you're getting screwed. If. they can put that message forward and land it on  the Republican candidates, especially incumbents, that's where there's a lot of room to grow.  Tonight, Trump versus Terarico. President. Trump crisscrossing Texas all day today. And in  any moment, he'll take the stage at a rally for. Ken Paxton in Leach, Texas. As Paxton's opponent,  James Tarico is also preparing to take the stage. in Leach at his own rally. Now, they'll be just  about 2 miles apart. two miles last minute rallies.

in a state that should have been an easy win  for Republicans, but instead Trump is making. his fifth stop in Texas this election season  to try to rally voters for Paxton. Just listen. to Bill Hemer on Fox News today. Today for the  president, he's going down to Texas, a state he. won by almost 14 points. I mean, this is this  is unbelievable, right? 24 months ago. I mean, you heard the incredility in his voice. It is  unbelievable. Trump appears to know it. Trying.

to make a plea that voting for Paxton is about  patriotism. So on election night, Texas is going. to prove that America does not belong to those  who hate it. America belongs to those who love it. And the only choice for proud patriots of Texas  is the greatest attorney general in the history of. your state. One of the greatest attorney generals  in this country, a man I worked with and I will.

tell you he loves your state and he loves our  country. A talented guy, Ken Paxton. Please. But a growing number of Texans don't agree. And a  new Univision poll shows Terico leading Paxton 50. to 45. Now that is actually now outside the margin  of error among Latino voters in Texas. Taller Rico. is ahead by an even wider margin, 55 to 37. And  now if you just keep in mind, Trump won Latino. voters in Texas by 10 points in 2024. So you can  just look back here and do the math. That's a.

nearly 30 point swing. Nearly 30 points. Now, of  course, we'll see if that pans out. It's a poll, but a lot of people are already voting. They've  made up their minds. And we do know that Texas is. seeing a surge in early voting. Take a look at the  numbers here. So far, more than 5 million people, 5,14,466 to be exact, have voted early there.  That's a lot of people. And some Republican. officials are becoming increasingly vocal  against Trump's handpicked candidate Paxton. Thomas Phillips is a noted Texas Republican,  former chief justice of the state supreme court.

writes in a new op-ed today, quote, I am a  Republican who won four contested elections. on the Republican ticket for Chief Justice of the  Texas Supreme Court. But this year, I will vote. for Democrat James Terico for US Senator. However  exemplary his future conduct might be, Paxton's. long-standing reputation will embarrass Texas in  ways our state simply cannot afford. Now, we're. going to speak with Phillips in just a few moments  coming up. But he's not alone. He joins a growing.

list of prominent Texas Republicans who are coming  out against Paxton, including Neil Bush, George W. Bush's brother, HW Bush's son. Dade Felin, the  former Texas House Speaker, who you saw just. on this show last night. And it's not just Texas  that Republicans are worried about tonight. Top. election forecaster Larry Sabido has now shifted  21 more midterm races towards Democrats, including. Senate races in GOP strongholds, Florida, South  Carolina. Larry's going to be here in just a few. moments to give us all the new details on that.  But what's the plan? The plan if Republicans.

do suffer major losses in this election. Well,  Trump is already looking for a way out. You'll. respect the results whatever happens. I will  if they're honest elections. If they're honest. elections. It's always that qualifier, right? It's  unclear what he considers honest elections since, of course, this country has honest elections.  But according to a new Washington Post analysis, nearly 600 high-profile right-wing social media  accounts, podcasts, and other online media have. published more than 7,000 statements questioning  the elections integrity so far this year. Many of.

them echoing comments like these today by Trump  in Texas. Be careful of the voter fraud. Be. careful. We will pass voter identification, proof  of citizenship, and the Save America Act to defend. our sacred American elections. The Texas Senate  race is super close. Polls show it. Internal. polling obviously shows it that the campaigns are  looking at. Uh you have it at CO Political Report.

as a tossup. So, who do you think has the edge?  I guess on a night when you see Telerico and LEC, a place that he doesn't expect to win, but as  Arlette said, if he could just siphon some votes, he thinks it would matter. Erin, Texas is going to  decide Senate control, and it's super close right. now. For James Talerico to make the math work  statewide for the first time for a Democrat since. '94, he needs three things to happen. He needs big  defections from Cornin voters in suburbs outside. DFW and Houston. We're seeing that in the polls  of legislative districts in places like Tarant.

County, Colin, and Denton counties. He also needs  big reversion to Democrats among Hispanic voters. in South Texas. and we're seeing that in the polls  of key congressional races along the border in. Hidalgo and Cameron counties. But he also needs  low Republican turnout in rural areas. And this is. the big question mark because Democrats are going  to enter election day with a big banked lead in. early votes. We know that. But we don't know how  many rural Republicans are going to show up on. election day. And the only Republican candidate in  a key Senate race who's less popular than Donald.

Trump in the state they're running is Ken Paxton.  So if Donald Trump can lift him just a little bit. and juice turnout in those 8020 districts in West  Texas, East Texas, then maybe he can ek this out. What's happening with Hispanic voters there is  is really the a big part of this story. You know, a huge swing from just two years ago and a swing  from uh when Ted Cruz was running for the Senate.

as well a couple of years ago, too. Um, Terico has  made real inroads in South Texas and uh, if the. president goes and tells people that he doesn't  love America, there are a lot of people in South. Texas who aren't going to buy that argument. But,  uh, Paxton is just a big load with those voters. And in terms of Republicans, in this poll that you  mentioned, uh, uh, uh, Tal Rico was getting 11%. of Republican voters. That's like twice as much  as the last Democratic Senate candidate. Well,

Democrats and Republicans are playing a very  different game right now. Um, Democrats like. James Talerico feel confident enough to go into  places and get new kinds of voters, kinds of. voters they haven't gone after before. Republicans  need to turn out every last base voter that there. is. They're not thinking about independents,  moderates, undecideds. They don't have that. luxury. So that's why you're hearing a lot of  these base arguments around the country and why on.

the Dem side, you're kind of hearing some some new  talk. You're hearing Democrats like Rob Sand talk. to farmers, right, a reliably conservative voting  base about coming over to the other side. This is. a very different playing field for Republicans  than it is. Now, we've also heard, you know, okay, you just went through, you went through  suburban voters, you went through Hispanic voters, rural voters. Jamal, you know, it's interesting  because in the context of all the reporting up in. Michigan about whether Abdul sayed has failed  his outreach to black voters today in Texas,

Tracy Gibbons is the first black chairwoman of  the um Harris County Democratic Party. It's the. largest county in Texas, obviously by population.  She told the Washington Sun that most black men. she talks to at local barber shops don't even  recognize Talerico's name as part of, in her case, a fear that he is not going to have turnout in the  black community. Do you think that's a real risk? It is. It always is because Democratic candidates  historically do a poor job of reaching into the.

black community to meet people where they are  and bringing them into the conversation. I think. Terico has been a bit different. His campaign from  the very beginning has been an inspiring campaign, a national campaign, one that I've paid  attention to from the very beginning. You know, he was recently at H.B.CU ECUs and homecomings  and really hitting the ground in those spaces. where a lot of black voters exist and black voters  are not going to be voting for Paxton. That's not. going to happen. President Trump hosting a rally  this hour and Barack Obama will be hosting one as.

well at the exact same time. Uh everyone's here  with me. Stephanie, let me just start with you. Uh so you've got this this as I said, you know,  political split screen. Uh an incredible one. Um, and it's actually interesting because when  we heard the time of the rallies today, it had. seemed that it was possible that Obama might  be speaking before Trump, but it may surprise. nobody that they're actually going to speak at the  exact same time. And that's probably purposeful, at least on the part of Obama. Um, how much does  something like that matter with Trump? You know, that that he and Obama are competing. Oh, it  matters a lot. Like, look, at the end of the day,

there's one thing Donald Trump is really good at,  and it's performing. And he knows TV and he knows. that Obama, love him or hate him, he knows that  Obama is very good at messaging and being casual. and being funny and there's no way. I mean, I was  even watching the split scene just at the start. of the show. You had somebody singing, lights were  going. That looked like a fun party that Obama was. going to be speaking at. And then you had Trump  with his normal red hats kind of standing there, you know, behind him. And he knows that his jokes  about behinds are not really they're falling flat,

pardon the pun. the fact that he's talking about  men's butts. I mean, let's just be on every rally. he's talking about men's butts. I'll just say  this, having worked and been with the Trumps for. six years, on the way home from Ohio, I guarantee  you the staff will be in the office on Air Force. One having to watch the cuts of Obama and he's  not going to be happy. I mean, sure, Michael, that's that's he does care about that. And as I  said, I'm sure Barack Obama is very aware of the. time that he's going on. Yeah. Look, the dueling  optics, I think, are important. In one vein, you.

have Obama who's out there trying to turn out the  Democratic base, particularly African-Americans in. places like Michigan, etc. I think he'll probably  there's been a lot of reports be very effective, I think, in some regards there. But then you have  Trump who's testing a very interesting theory of. trying to turn out his low propensity voters. Now,  these are voters who we have seen in a series of. elections over the past couple years. Now, they  typically don't turn out in high numbers when. the president isn't on the ballot. I don't want  to forget you here, Wendy, so excuse me. They. typically don't turn out. So the objective here  is to test this this hypothesis. Can the president.

encourage 2 to 3% of those folks to turn out in  these very very tight Senate races where that 2 to. 3% could make a mathematical difference when the  election is within the margin of errors, meaning. three points ahead or three points behind. We'll  see if this theory pans out. So So I'm curious, Wendy, who do you think is going to be more  effective at that? Because Obama has not been. that present. you know, he's appeared a couple  times, but this kind of we're seeing him every. day is really just in this last stretch. So, when  it comes to who's going to be more effective in.

those neckand-neck races, is it Obama or Trump  with appearances like tonight? I mean, I think. President Obama reminds people of a time when  things worked. We delivered healthcare to millions. of people around this country. And Trump, we're  welcoming him to Texas. We love it when he comes. because we see a dip in the polls every single  time he's there. He reminds people of what's. at stake. He reminds people of the corruption in  his government, which of course, President Obama.

is speaking about um so articulately and that he  is completely ignoring the problems that they're. facing in their everyday lives. He's talking about  John Houston's ass and not talking about the cost. of gas, the war in Iran, the tariffs, the things  that have made people's lives so painful. And so. I think the closing argument of a President Obama  versus a President Trump is going to have a much. better impact. Such a weird thing that we're  sitting here talking about what what she just.

said, what we just said. I mean that he gets on  the stage and he talks about men's um derriès. Let's use the third sent. Um but Paul on you know  Obama has been talking about corruption. He's. appearing with John Oaf tonight in Georgia, who I  have been noticing over months has been going into. great detail on corruption in a way that many  would have thought you couldn't do at a rally. He's done it. He's ahead in the polls. We'll see  if it actually works. But on that same night, they expect to hear more of that, more detail  from Obama, from Assaf. You have Flavio Bolsinaro.

claiming a rigged election under investigation  for all sorts of financial corruption and crimes. given safe harbor in the United States by  President Trump. Right? He's admitted, "I. gave this guy Mhm. the pass to come here." Yeah.  Uh and it's all a battle ultimately in these final. days for independence. In Ohio, 37% of voters are  independents. And now it's become the choose your. fighter moment, right? You've got Obama on one  side and Trump on the other. And Obama's funny. I mean, he's charismatic. He's good at this. He's  the most, I think, the most dynamic communicator.

of our time. And he's landing. And he's also just  more popular. He's in the 50%, I think, range. on approval. Trump's down around 30. So this is  advantage to Obama, especially when it talks about. integrity. We talk about ethics and corruption  is the winning issue. Whether it's a Republican, a Democrat, or an independent, this is what worked  in in in in Hungary, it's what's working here. I. think it'll work in Israel. People are ticked off  about everything. But most of all, when folks are. getting rich, and they're getting screwed. That's  the feeling across all parties. And if you can.

square that circle most effectively with Obama  more than any other Democrat, I think you're going. to move independence. The question for Democrats  is what have you been sitting on him for so long? I mean, what where has he been? They've been with  Obama. That's what I'm saying. He has not been. He's like Captain America from the Avengers, but  he's been on the sideline for the last couple of. months, and they're pulling him out in the final  hours, but they would have been further along if. they had brought him out earlier, I think. Yeah.  Stephanie and Stephanie, what do you think? I mean, are there people for whom something like  Flavio Bolsinaro just is like another reminder? Uh. independents, right? when you talk about people in  this final decision or maybe moderate Republicans.

that are really struggling with it's one thing to  sit this one out or not check that line and it's a. very different one to check a Democrat in a state  like Ohio or Texas or Kansas. Well, yeah. Again, I mean, you know, he's worried about letting this  balsinaro come into our country when again I mean. I live in ruby red Kansas right now. I live  in the most rural Kansas you guys can imagine. And farmers are truly struggling right now and  wondering, hey, am I going to be able to plant for. the spring? And if I can't plant for the spring,  I can't harvest then. And if I can't harvest, what.

am I going to do? And he's worrying about letting  Balsinaro come into the country. So, yeah, I think. that this is something that will impact more  independents. I think the Republicans are going. to still stay with their ticket. Farmers that, you  know, are any of them going to go Democrat? Yeah, actually I've talked to a few who have said, you  know, um I've I have voted for him three times, for Trump three times now, but he's got to go. Um  I you know, and and I'm I still am a Republican. I. love Jerry Moran. He's a senator in Kansas. I love  that guy. I would never vote against him, but I.

think that Adam Hamilton, I think he'll do a great  job. He's done a great race. He's really running. it right down the center. Um and there have been  other Republicans that I've heard from that will. do that in Kansas. It's been amazing to be on  the ground and to see some of these and to see. some of that actually happen. Absolutely. And yet,  Shichel, in the midst of this, we have this Alaska. situation where um you know, the New York Times  reports that there's all these texts showing that. the Democrats had talked about finding someone  with the same name as the Republican incumbent. Senator Dan Sullivan to run against Dan Sullivan  purposely to seow confusion. Oh, absolutely. Which.

apparently is, this is the worst part about it.  Apparently, this happens. Apparently, this is. this is how Democrats and Republicans all over do  things, which I think everybody can agree is is. pretty distasteful to say the least. But it gives  a lot of wind in Trump's sales when he filed the. lawsuit to to block the results if Dan Sullivan  doesn't win. It it may also look, I used to be an. opposition researcher, so I'm used to some level  of dirty tricks, but this was a bit surprising to. me this close to to the election to not presume  that this would ultimately come out. Now,

the Democrat appears to have been running rather  competitively in Alaska. Some Republicans were. even concerned that maybe we could even lose that  seat. I think that may be reversed now. Whatever. voter apathy that may have started to creep  in with Republicans, I think they're energized. now. I think to your point about some of those  independents who may have been looking at maybe. voting Democrat and say, "Well, wait a minute  here. Why couldn't you just win on the merits of. your case? Why did you have to try to deceive me  or confuse me that you were the better candidate.

over the Republican?" May suddenly say, you know,  maybe I'll vote for that Republican after all. So, I think this race is far more competitive than it  was just 48 hours ago because of this reporting. from the New York Times. What do you think, Wendy?  I don't know. I mean, Lisa Marowski has come out. against Donald Trump's ploy here. And to me,  it reads more like what we would expect of him, which is the, you know, idea that the election  will be rigged, that it's going to be stolen.

He's starting that narrative all over again.  And it it it feels as though I don't know I. I don't live in Alaska, but I would be thinking  about that as oh my gosh, here we go again. More. of the same. Can we just talk about solutions for  the problems that we're having in our lives? Yeah, he's telegraphed this punch. He said he's going to  attack the election. He said that out in the open. He wants to undermine free and fair elections  because he knows it's the only check on his power. He knows if the Democrats take power, they're  going to slow him down. and they're going to jam.

him up and he's sees that as the most immediate  threat to his his power. So, I think he's going. to go in in all that. But I do think there's  something else here in Alaska. This is why people. are sick of all of it. It's why they're sick of  the Republicans and the Democrat. And they're. not If anyone's honest with themselves, nobody's  saying, "Oh, this is good." I mean, come on. Who. and they're not always willing to jump from one  party to the other. And this is the the white. space that independent candidates are filling  right now. like Dan Osborne in in Nebraska, Todd Achilles in South Dakota in Idaho, Brian  Bangs in South Dakota, Seth Bodner in Montana.

They're providing an off-ramp for Democrats or  Republicans who want an alternative without going. all the way. And that's where 45% of the country  is. And these independent candidates especially. are surging and competing against incumbents.  Trump bailing tonight, scrapping not one, but actually two rallies in two different states.  Moments ago, dropping a campaign trip to Iowa. The. CNN poll of polls finds essentially a dead heat  there. That's a state that Trump won, by the way, by more than 13 points. And that Iowa cancellation  just breaking now, coming right on the heels of.

the president canceling a trip to Kansas where he  was going to campaign for the embattled Republican. Senator Roger Marshall. Now, Marshall won his seat  by more than 11 points in 2020. Is now, of course, at serious risk of losing that seat to a Democrat.  The latest CNN polls show Marshall trailing. Democrat Adam Hamilton by four percentage points  there in Kansas. Now Trump says he's going to hold. tea rallies this weekend instead of actually  going to the ground. So he was asked about it. specifically before we even knew about Iowa. He  was asked about Kansas. Why are you not going.

anymore? So the president told the reporter asking  the question that the reporter was disgusting and. looked like hell. Look at this guy. He's in way  out of shape. Look at how badly he comes to me. Sir, you're not going to go to Kansas. I'm not  going to Kansas cuz he's doing very well. He's. going to do a teller rally tomorrow. I'm doing  Florida. He said, "What's the reason?" After. doing what, 28? He says, "What's the reason for  this, sir? That you're not going to Kansas?" You.

know what the reason is? I don't feel I have to  go to Kansas. I'm going to Florida tomorrow and. I'll do if something else comes up. But he said,  "You're not going to Kansas, sir. Are you feeling. well? You've been following me for two weeks. I  feel perfect. You are disgusting. Put yourself in. shape. You look like hell. You are disgusting. Put  yourself in shape. You look like hell. Of all the. things Trump said today, that's what the White  House rapid response team clipped and proudly.

posted on X. And Trump's decision to suddenly  nyx that rally in Kansas seems to have caught. Roger Marshall, as I mentioned, the incumbent  that he was going to be something for, offguard. Senator, any reaction to the president cancelling  the inerson rally this weekend? I I'm I'm not I'm. not sure sure yet. I think I they think them are  doing so well in the polls that he's got probably. got better places to spend his time. Um not  sure. Let's go through some of the reasons this. could be. He's tired. We'd understand. And he's  not making a ton of sense on the rally stages,

right? Um the crowds are small. He doesn't want  that optic. Um he's getting heckled at a lot of. these rallies and that's getting picked up. Maybe  people like Roger Marshall and Ashley Henson said. we're better maybe we're better without you  in these closing. Who knows? But none of them. are good news. There are no good explanations,  including his that he's needed in Florida. That's. not any better. So none of the explanations are  good. It's not a good look. Um I think the reality.

might be setting in that those two races in  particular are probably set. They're set. They're. locked. This is where they're going to stay. Yeah.  And if those are set and locked, I mean, is what. does it mean for everything else, Governor? Well,  a a couple things. I wouldn't read into Kansas in. particular. As you said, he's he was there three  times in like the past week or week and a half. So, they're they're plenty saturated. And as  a candidate, I can tell you in the last week, you're not it's the base is locked in. You're  absolutely right, Essie. The bases are locked in. You're going after those last indecided undecided  voters, and that's not necessarily, you know, where Trump is going to Nobody feels there's any  of those left this time. Oh, there's plenty left.

I think especially in a place like Kansas be  where there's normally not a tough race, but. now people like, "Oh, wait, there's a race." Well,  Democrats are going after independents. Yeah. Oh, absolutely. They are. Republicans seem not to  be. Well, and that's maybe the the pivot here. a little bit. Hey, let's just in in a place like  Kansas, the numbers say we still have a decent. undecided that those aren't necessarily our base.  Let's pivot there. Yeah. Listen, I think that what. happened in Kansas is that they got a poll back  because we're going into the last week. A lot of. these campaigns, they do one more. This is what  they're seeing internal. There's no reason to.

poll like after Saturday because there's nothing  you can do if you find out something. What are. you going to do? You can't buy more TV time. You  can't do anything else. I bet you they got some. numbers back that said Trump is not helping. In  fact, probably he's hurt. He's hurting and they're. trying to keep him away from it. And you got this  side by side that's happening right now between. Donald Trump and Barack Obama on the campaign  trail. And I'm telling you, Trump is not coming. out well when you see the two of them, mano,  the way many of us have wanted to see it for a. long time. When you see the two of them together,  Trump doesn't come out because they're actually.

both both literally. I mean, literally, we're  on the on the stage at the same time. Um, David, what what do you read into this? I I think we're  looking at it through the wrong end of the lens. The question is not why is Trump not suddenly not  campaigning for these candidates? The question, why was he ever campaigning for them? Okay, so  normally when you have an unfavorable environment, 2006 for the Republicans, 2014 for the Democrats,  a president who cares about his party says to at. risk incumbents, especially in the Senate, look,  you need to denounce me. You denounce me. You need. to put you need to make some space. Go ahead.  I my feelings won't be hurt. Uh this is about.

something bigger than myself. Because of Trump's  malignant narcissism, he had to make himself the. candidate in every one of these races. And he's  not help. Well, in fact, he many times said, "If I were on the ballot, this would all be great  because I they want me." um if if there were an. environment where John Cornin had prevailed in  Texas and John Cornin had been allowed to say, you know, I I I'll be with the president when  I agree with him, but I'll be as you've seen, I often disagree with him, that he might have  a chance of holding Texas. That's the stance. he would take in a place like Kansas, you know,  with the president some of the time, other times.

And and meanwhile, he's in Washington. And and  in fact, I've even staged maybe some incident. this year to show my independence. Trump would  not allow the Republicans to do that. And he is. dragging down people because of his pathologies,  which I'm sure I'm sure they would all have wished. the president never came in the first place. Well,  to maybe this is when you were saying maybe it's. Roger Marshall um who was saying I don't need you.  So, so um Vive Vive Ramaswami who ran that violad. and originally had a space to get out of it sort  of to say well I didn't know about it and and it.

was a pack or something he could try to find a way  Trump you know said it was great and vague tripled. down and and now here we are finally it's no  longer airing the ad is is no longer airing um and. Ramis Swami said at a campaign event today is this  your 8-year-old son quote it ran to completion and. we put up four other ads you know it just ran it  cycle yeah right no issue with it. I mean, they. can say anything because nothing matters. But,  um, no, if this were working, they'd keep it up. Period. Full stop. Again, none of the explanations  are good here. And these are politicians. They're.

going to spin it. We should expect that. That  doesn't make them crazy or unique. But no one's. buying this because we can all see, we've been  seeing in real time the effect of an ad like that, the effect of the things that Donald Trump has  been saying on the campaign trail. We're all. ingesting it in real time and we're watching the  polls react. So, so, so Governor, you know, um, it was interesting David from said something there  about you would give you, you could even stage an.

incident. You would have something to show I'm  myself when I want to be myself. Um, so your. brother is running for Senate in New Hampshire.  Okay. And this is what I was saying. Oh, that I love I loved this. It's my favorite ad of  the whole cycle. Okay. So, we played it one night. It is It is one of our It is one of our favorite  ads the whole cycle. Okay. So, here is part of an. ad that your brother put out recently on this  very subject. The way Chris Papis tells it, "I'm President Trump's long lost son. I've never  even met the man." There you go. I'm so happy. I'm.

so happy right now. So glad Trump didn't have  to cancel a rally there because your brother. made it clear um he didn't need him. Well, yeah.  So, I mean, every state's different. Maine, uh I. would even argue Michigan, New Hampshire. Right  now, you're trying to get that independent vote. uh and places like South Carolina, Iowa, Kansas,  Texas, Trump is going to go for the sole purpose. of driving the base out. I think what they're  finding, Turning Point USA is out there. They're. knocking on more doors than ever before with  the base, with the um the low propensity voter,

the low propensity midterm voter. And what they're  finding is a lot of those Trump voters are like, "Yeah, I'm good." And so what they're trying to do  is drive those Trump voters out in a midterm that. normally wouldn't come out. And that's why he's  been focusing in these conservative states. So, I don't want to like nose into your Thanksgiving  dinner. Please go ahead. Everyone else has. Okay. Okay. Okay. No, but now I say that and then I'm  going to do it. Okay. So, um you said if voters. thought they were voting for you um that your  your brother be you would be 30 points ahead and.

and and that that he your own brother hasn't asked  you to join him on the campaign. Oh, no. Sure. So, a couple things that was people saying, well,  you know, people are going to confuse the two. There's no way people are confusing me and my  brother, right? So, that's that's where the. uh the statement came from. And it's true. I as an  eight-year governor, I was in people's living room. every night. Everyone know knew who I was and it's  a whole different different dynamic. My brother's. very independent. He's running his own race as I  ran my own race. He's on his own two feet. He's. winning it with shoe leather. He's not relying on  outside endorsements. Anything he asked me to do, I would do. So, you guys don't have a problem.  Oh my god. No, you can't. No, no, no. And and.

he's and he's going to win. He's I think he and  Susan Collins are going to win. Breaking news from. one of America's top election forecasters. Cook  Political Report tonight releasing some of their. final projections before the midterms and they  are moving 12 more house races to the left making. this bolderation and I quote, "Democrats now have  the potential to win their largest majority since. 2009." So Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political  Report is out front now with Larry Sabido, the. editor and chief and director of the Center for  Politics at the University of Virginia, the man.

of course behind the Sabado crystal ball. Okay. So  I appreciate both of you. So So Dave, let me start. with you. House Democrats need to pick up just  three seats to get the majority, right? So, three. seats, they have the majority. That's why this  is so razor thin. Um, but you're talking about. a whole lot more. How many more? Our projection  is a g a Democratic gain of 12 to 25 seats. And. if they win more than 20, that that would put them  beyond what they won in either 2006 or 2018 when.

they ended up at 235 seats. This has the potential  to be a generational wipeout for Republicans. And. if you had told me at the beginning of the cycle  that we'd be talking about some of the seats that. are on our board right now where Republicans are  sweating districts that Trump carried by 15 in. some cases 18 points. I would have said I had  booked a ticket to an alternate dimension. But. we moved uh seats held by Victoria Sparts district  Trump carried by 18 points. Virginia Fox another.

Trump 18 district in western North Carolina.  Republican polls have them ahead by by low single. digits. And then Lauren Boowart in Colorado,  another Trump 18 seat. Uh she has her own. uh weaknesses and and she's an underperformer.  Republicans are nervous about her. Nancy Mace's. open seat in Charleston, South Carolina. Even  Elise Stefonic's district in in the north country. of New York. If these seats fall, it could be  huge. So Larry, when you look at Dave's projection.

at at the upper end, right, if if if House  Democrats win something astounding like 240 seats, right? Again, they need 218 to have control. So  240 would be an astounding number. Do do you do. you see that as as reasonable? And is there any  scenario when you look at all the conversation. out there about well Republicans don't answer the  polls and and you know, who knows what the margins. really will be. Is there any scenario where  the house is not a foregone conclusion? Well,

the crystal ball will issue its final projections  in all 435 seats of the House plus every Senate. seat and every gubanatorial contest up on Monday.  Uh but I can tell you this much, we're remarkably. close based on what I've seen. And by the way,  we're we're separate operations. We don't compare. notes. We do our research on our own. So I always  feel comfortable when the two groups come out with. numbers that are similar. We've said for about 6  months Democrats would get 230 plus. I think it's.

going to be mid 230s. It could be a few more than  that. So that's very close. As far as the polls. are concerned, Aaron, we're always prepared  for polls to be wrong. And if they are wrong, we'll have another, you know, two years of angst  trying to analyze them. But I'm with Dave on. this. There's just too much information, not just  polling, all kinds of other things, early voting, uh, background statistics that are that are  matching up perfectly with a big Democratic gain.

And, um, I think that's what's going to happen.  And, and Dave, I want to talk about one race here, which we're going to be talking about more in  a moment, the Nebraska Senate race, which your. team just shifted uh, from likely Republican to  leans Republican. So, that moves in the Democratic. direction. and you still have it as lean uh  Republican, but that shift is good news for the. independent candidate there, Don Dan Osborne,  who's going to be with me here on the show in. just a few moments facing the GOP incumbent Pete  Rickettts. Now, the context here when you would.

move this as likely Republican to lean Republican  is that Trump won Nebraska by 20 points two years. ago. 20 points two years ago. I mean, nobody would  anticipate a state that red would be moving in the. left direction four days before the election. So,  what's going on? I was just in Nebraska on Friday. and there is a lot of rural anxiety economically.  It's not just higher tariffs. It's not just high. interest rates or higher input costs. It's  also the Trump administration's decision to.

import 300 million metric tons of beef which has  created some blowback amongst cattle ranchers in. states like Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, even Texas. If  Republican turnout is depressed in western Kansas, then we're not just looking at a close Senate  race. And look, we think that Pete Rickett still. has an advantage over the independent Dan Osborne,  but also uh Lynn Walls, the Democrat running. for governor, has an outside chance if enough  votes go to a third party spoiler uh candidate.

u and siphon them off from Governor Jim Pan. So  there there are some strange things that could. happen. Larry, which Senate race right now is  surprising you the most? Well, obviously Alaska, we'll see how much effect this this new issue has.  Although the people I talked to today, Alaska told. me that it doesn't seem to be having much impact  yet because they haven't seen all the goods on. it. Yes. Go ahead. Yeah. And you're talking about  the the the Sullivan the Sullivan Sullivan and the.

DOJ. Exactly. That's the one that's surprising  me the most. But there, look, there there are. five or six of them. Just incredible. And I cannot  believe we're talking about some of these deep red. states. It just tells you where this election year  has gone. And like Dave, in the beginning of this. election cycle, I wouldn't have dreamed of coming  out and said, you know, at the very end, we're all. going to be talking about those deep red states. I  would have been put away or forced to retire. Just.

into CNN from the surprising battleground state  of Nebraska which show about 218,000 ballots have. been cast so far in the state. Uh over 40,000 more  than at this exact same point last midterms in in. 2022. The state senate race between the Republican  Pete Rickettts and the independent Dan Osborne. uh is a very crucial race could determine which  party controls the Senate. This is another one of. those seats everyone is looking at. A race that  has gotten so tight that one of the nation's top. political forecasters as we just were talking to  Dave Wasserman. Cook Political Report just moved.

it uh further away from Republicans, shifting  it from likely to lean Republican. Of course, Trump won the state by 20 points two years ago.  So Dan Osborne is now out front and and Dan, you know, we were just talking about these Midwest  states. There's several of them uh that have, you know, from from these analyses been  moving moving away from Republicans, but obviously a shift is a long way away from  a win, right? It's it's likely to lean. So, why would Nebraska elect the first non-Republican  to the Senate for the first time in 20 years?

Yeah. Well, people are frustrated. Families  families like mine, we keep getting kicked in. the teeth, farmers getting kicked in the teeth,  ranchers with a with a bad beef deal. Uh people. are upset. We're upset. uh you know, the fact that  there's uh 21 killed service members and over 850. wounded coming back filing VA claims for a war we  had no plan of and and the cost of it is real in.

diesel fuel inputs uh in agriculture and and in  our everyday lives and you add tariffs onto that. too. It's uh it's just the onetwo punch and and  you know folks are just uh wanting a fair shake. really at the end of the day. So you Dan and and  and Mr. Ricketts have both made affordability in. the economy a key part of your campaigns, right?  We have not heard that at the national level, right? Trump has said affordability is is is not  a thing. Um you know, his top economist who says. it's a myth, but on the campaign trail uh in in  Nebraska, both of you have been honest that it's.

the center. Uh here's some of the ads that have  run. You should be able to put gas in your car and. you ought to be able to buy groceries without  going into debt. You shouldn't have to choose. between paying your rent and buying medicine.  This is not the America I grew up believing in. One vote can make a big difference. Like Pete  Rickett's vote to cut taxes for working people, Dan Osborne would have voted to raise those taxes.  More money out of our pockets. Higher taxes for.

working Nebraskans. That's the real Dan Osborne.  So your reported income last year, I mentioned. this in the tease. I don't know if you were hooked  up yet, but we understand was about $108,000. Mechanic with an HVAC company. Your opponent,  whose family owns the Chicago Cubs, reportedly. has a net worth of at least $200 million. What  does that difference mean when it comes to voters?

Yeah, I think it means families that are  putting Christmas on a credit card this year. uh understand the difference of how I'm  going to approach policy. And I'm going. to approach it objectively based off of going  and doing a 93 county tour throughout Nebraska, talking to everyday Nebraskans, the hardworking  people, and understanding their plight, their trials and tribulations, and taking that to  the United States Senate. And I think anybody uh. with with a half a brain knows that uh Pete  Ricketts uh can't possibly understand that.

he's never had a bad day in his life. So uh that's  again the fundamental difference. The the contrast. writes itself and we are running the closest  Senate race in the country because we believe. on this campaign and what we talk about all the  time is the words of Abraham Lincoln. This is a. government by and for the people. Not for APAC,  not for defense contractors, not for big oil, big pharma. We're tired of it. We're tired of  this payforplay world. I don't take their money. I'm not going to do their bidding. And if you you  could find all this out on our 93 county tour on.

our website. It's osborneforscenate.com.  If you want to donate to Rickettts, you could go to Iupport Vladimirputin.com  and donate to him. But we're tired of it.