Midterm elections 2026: Harry Enten's final prediction

All right, folks. The moment of truth is here.  It's time for my final midterm forecast. We're. talking the United States House. We're talking  the United States Senate. And I've looked at. thousands, no, hundreds of thousands of data  points, thousands of polls to understand which way. the tides are shaking. And we're going to start  off with the US House of Representatives. We're. going to be talking about all 435 seats. We're  going to be projecting all of them. But before. we do so, we have to understand how we get to that  forecast. And it all starts off well with the man.

at the top, President Trump. And look at this.  Look at his approval rating, his net approval. rating. He's down there swimming with the Little  Mermaid. He's 24 points underwater. That is the. worst. That is the worst for any president ever  dating back to at least Harry S. Truman in 1946, the worst for any president before a midterm  election. Now, of course, Trump being unpopular. is only part of the Republicans issues. Take a  look at this. Approve of Congress just 14%. Look,

Congress always has a low approval rate, but  never this low. Never this low going into an. election. 14% the lowest ever going into an  election on record. 81% disapprove. Now, look, folks, I know what you're saying, Harry. Harry,  you know, folks always disapprove of Congress, but they like their own congressman. Not anymore.  Not anymore. This is even more troubling. Look at. this. say their own Congress member deserves  re-election or does not deserve for the first. time ever going into an election. Look  at this. The plurality, the plurality,

45% say that their own member of Congress does not  deserve re-election. Woof. Now, what does this all. relate back to? Right? What does this all relate  back to? Well, inflation is the name of the game. And Americans simply put do not believe that the  president of the United States is measuring up. because it was the reason that Trump got elected  back in 2024, reelected. Look at this. Trusted. more on the issue of inflation by nine points over  Kla Harris. But look at this. His net approval. rating now 52 points underwater. That is more  unpopular than any other president ever. Yes,

it's even more unpopular than Jimmy Carter was  on inflation. He is down there swimming in Lake. Eerie. My god, it's terrible. Now, this all of  course hurts Republicans when they are running for. re-election and those who want to join Congress. I  don't want to join Congress, but for some reason, Democrats, Republicans on both sides apparently do  want to join Congress. And look at this. This is. a national congressional ballot Democratic lead.  And it has been it has been widening. It has been.

winding. Look at this. A year ago, Democrats were  up by five. Now in the summer, this past summer, it was plus 6. And today, look at this. Plus  9. And that plus 9 is important because it. easily overcomes the GOP redistricting. Remember,  there were those redistricting wars. Democrats, Republicans reddrawing the lines. Republicans  ended up winning that battle. But in reality, all Democrats probably need is to win the  popular House vote by plus4. You don't have.

to be a mathematical genius to know that plus 9 is  significantly greater than plus4. Now, when we're. talking about the national generic congressional  ballot, right, or the national house ballot, that's one way to measure potential success in the  house. The other way or another way is to look at. race runners. I'm talking about your cooks, your  savos who are rating each individual race right. down to the tea. Now, this what we're seeing is  something truly historic going on here. House. seats at least leaning Democratic. Well, right now  in 2026, we're talking about 224. Look back past,

jump in the Delorean, go to the past cycles. In  2022, it was 193 at this point in the cycle. 193. leaning Democratic. Democrats ended up north of  210 seats. How about in 2018 when Democrats easily. won back a House majority net gain of 40 seats  in the House? Even then, they were well south of. 218 seats. 218 of course being the magic number  needed for a majority. So Democrats are already.

running well ahead of their pace in prior election  cycles according to the race raiders. So you put. together that national generic ballot. You put  together that with the race ra say hey Democrats. are in pretty good shape. Here is one word of  warning. One word of warning is that if we look. back at these race ratings, right, historically  speaking, we can see or at least those forecasts, we can see that the forecast sometimes actually  overshoot Democrats. They overshoot Democrats.

So this is 2020 US House races, the House seat  forecast 242 for the Democrats back in 2020. And look at what ended up happening. Democrats  won only 222. So there was an undershoot. The. Democrats actually fell about 20 seats short. They  fell about 20 seats shorts of what the forecasts. were projecting. And you need to keep that in  mind. That's why I'm also looking at other data. that has nothing to do with polling, nothing  to do with race readers who are looking at the. polling. I'm talking about primary turnout.  And you can see this here, national primary.

turnout edge by party. And what's so important  is in each of the past few cycles, the midterms, the party that had the larger primary turnout  ended up winning the house. 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022. In all the cases, the same party  that had the national primary turnout edge went. on to win the US House. And you know what? This  year, you know who has the primary edge? Well, it is team B L U E. So, here it is. It's actually  a moment of truth. It is a moment of truth that.

we're coming up on. That is what is actually  the most likely scenario for the US House of. Representatives. And I will note that its chances  been climbing ever higher, higher and higher. As. Jackie Wilson once said, it's up eight points from  where we were back on August 13th. Back on August. 14th. And what is that? What is the chance? Well,  our most likely scenario is Democrats. Chance to. win the US House of Representatives up to 92%.  Up to 92% that Democrats win back the US House.

of Representatives according to an aggregate of  models. My my aggregate of models. Now look, 92%. is not 100%. That still leaves Republicans with an  8% chance, but chances are Democrats are going to. take back the House. And more than that, they're  going to take back the House with these because I. promised you a specific seat forecast. And here it  is in the horseshoe. You can see it. There's more. blue than red. And so our final projection, our  final house forecast is 237 seats for the Dems,

198 seats for the Republicans. Look, this is the  most likely forecast. I'm not saying I'm going to. be right on. It's going to be very interesting  to see after the elections. We're going to go. back. We're going to see how close that this  actually got. But at this point, Democrats look. like they're not just going to reach 218 seats.  They're going to exceed it with ease. Of course, I know the real reason, or at least I think I know  the real reason that a lot of you have tuned into. this, and that is you want a Senate forecast. And  we do have a final Senate forecast, but this has.

obviously exhausted me. I've had a very long  week. So, a little mid forecast drink for me. I do enjoy a good cream soda. And there we go.  Okay. So, we're going to be projecting out all. of the Senate seats. All 35 Senate seats. All the  states in yellow. We're going to fill them on in. We're going to fill them on in. But before we  do so, we have to understand just how hard it. is for Democrats, historically speaking. How hard  it is for Democrats and why Republicans at the.

beginning of this cycle, we thought we're in the  catbird seat. And this is why. Take a look here. Senate flips in states that the party lost by  at least 10 points in the prior presidential. election. How many seats did they flip in  non-special elections since 2011? That is over the. last 15 years. They flipped zero zero zero. They  flipped zero seats. And why is that so important? Because Democrats need at least two at least they  need to flip at least two plus 10 Trump states in.

order to win back the United States Senate. But  here is where it gets really interesting. Here's. where it gets really interesting. Look at this.  Okay, take a look at these key Senate race demole. margins at this point where Trump won by at least  10 points. You actually see a lot of blue on your. screen. Alaska plus three. Would be interesting  to see at the final polls actually end up matching. the results given all the controversies there with  the two Dan Sullivanss. Ohio Sherid Brown seeming. to do pretty gosh darn well at this point leading  by three points. The Democrat there trying to win.

back a seat in the Senate. Of course, he is a  former longtime incumbent. Texas, James Taller. Rico, hoping to become the first United States  senator from Texas since 1988. He's up by three. Kansas, which hasn't elected a Democratic senator  since 1932 when Babe Ruth looked to the bleachers. and called his shot in the 32 World Series against  the Cubs at Wrigley Field in Iowa. You can't get. any closer than that. The Democrat Josh Turk  and the polling up by the smallest smallest of. margins a point. Should be noted all these races  are really tight right now, but they do seem to be.

leaning slightly Democratic. Slightly Democratic.  Now, what could possibly cause this? Because Trump. won in these states by at least 10 points just two  years ago. Well, my dear friends, it's something. that should have Republicans nationwide picking  up the phone. Picking up the phone. Hello. Hello. What is going on, White House? What is going  on? And here's the deal. Trump, despite winning. all those states by at least 10 points, is now  underwater by double digits in all of them. In. Texas, he's 13 points underwater. Alaska 15 points  underwater. Deep down there, I mean, my goodness.

gracious. You can get in the Pacific Ocean,  you can't get as far south as Donald Trump is. right now. How about in Iowa, the corn fields of  Iowa? He's way underneath those corn fields. Look. at that. 16 points underwater. Kansas 16 points  underwater. and Ohio. He's down there in the Ohio. River, my dear friends. He's 16 points underwater.  Woof. It's no bueno. Not good news. Now, here's.

the thing to keep in mind, though. I know a lot  of you are wondering about this, and it is really. worth this asterisk, and this gives hope. This  gives hopes to Republicans. Look at this. Okay, you all know, if you're watching this video, that  polling has tended to underestimate Republicans. And that is true especially in Trump won states.  Look at this. The GOP has beat their final Senate. poll average from 2018 to 2024 by 4.1 points in  the states Trump won in the prior election. We're. looking at the close states, the states that  in the final Senate polling average were all.

within five. And that is the case with all with  all of these states. I mean look at this 3 three. less than one. So when we see that and we see, oh  wow, that 4.1, all of that is within the historic. range in which Republicans could potentially  win. And that's why this map really to me tells. an important story. This is very possible. This is  possible. Your 2026 Senate, if polls underestimate. the GOP by four by four points, right across the  board, look at that. You get Michigan, Michigan.

goes red, Iowa stays red, Texas is red. Uh Alaska  is red, Kansas stays red. And you just see that it. is quite possible that Republicans do in fact hold  on the United States Senate. But that's not the. full story because it's not just about Trump and  his unpopity. It is also about how unpopular these. different Senate candidates are, the Republicans  in these deeply red states. Look at this. They're.

all double digits underwater. Dan Sullivan, Ashley  Henson in Iowa, Roger Marshall in Kansas, John. Houston in Ohio, Ken Paxton. Ken Paxton 29 points  underwater. What the heck is that? That makes him. by far the most unpopular GOP Senate nominee in  Texas this century. I will also note that this. Roger Marshall number minus 17, I did the math.  That also makes Roger Marshall at this late point. in the campaign the most unpopular GOP nominee for  Senate in Kansas. Now, it goes beyond that though,

right? Because we're talking about history  potentially being made. And I know a lot of folks. have had a lot of interest in the Texas Senate  race, and they'll say, "Oh, yes, the polls have, you know, underestimated Republicans." Here's the  deal, though. James Terico's six-point lead is the. best that any Democratic Senate nominee since 1988  when Lloyd Benson was the last Democrat to win a. Senate seat, was polling at this late point  in the campaign. So, this is truly historic. Federal RO was behind at this point back in the  2018 cycle. Now, I've been talking about the plus.

10 Trump states, right? I've been talking about  them. But there's also another Republican held. Senate seat where we've had an incumbent who has  outperformed their polling in the past. And I'm of. course talking about Susan Collins in Maine. Susan  Collins in Maine. Her net popularity though in. Maine right now is the worst it has been heading  into an election this entire century in the 2000s. Look at this. 12 points underwater. So yes, Susan  Collins has outperformed her polling in the past, but she has never been as unpopular as she is  right now. And this is what we're seeing across.

the map. We're seeing historic anomalies. Not just  that Trump is unpopular, but these GOP nominees. are historically unpopular. So what is in fact the  most likely Senate scenario? Well, I can tell you. that the chance of it has gone way up. It has gone  way up from where we were when we made our first. forecast back on August the 13th. Look at this.  Up 19 points nearly up 20 points. I guess 19B1,

a four, and a five. Up 19 points according to the  aggregate my aggregation of models. And where does. that leave us? Where does that leave us in terms  of the most likely Senate outcome? Well, drum. roll if you please. Here it is. chance that the  Democrats win the Senate, this is the most likely. outcome, is now up to 71%. 71%. I never thought  I'd see the day early on in this campaign where. Democrats would have a 71% chance of winning back  the United States Senate. I mean, that is a huge.

chance, but it's still not 100%. Republicans still  have a 29% chance of holding on to the United. States Senate. And that ain't nothing. That ain't  nothing because a good baseball hitter, right, gets on what? 30%, bats 300. Although baseball  players have been getting getting hits less and. less, but that's right near that. That's right  near that. And of course, we can remember the. Wade Bogses of the world, the George Brettes of  the world. They were easily breaking 300 batting. averages, getting on at least 30% of the time all  of the time. So, look, this is still this is still.

a quite a high possibility, right? You see players  who have 290 batting averages getting on a whole. heck of a lot. Now, this is 71%, right? But I  promise you, specific seat forecast. Specific. seat forecast. So, here we go. This is it. This is  the specific seat forecast. And I'm going to get. nerdy for a second here. But first, what are we  talking about? We are talking about 52 Democrats. 52 Democrats compared to 48 Republicans compared  to 48 Republicans. So, Democrats not just getting.

the 51 seats necessary, but getting a 52, a clear  majority of United States Senate seats. Now, if. you're looking at your map here, you'll see, look,  de Texas goes blue. Kansas goes blue. Alaska, yes, Alaska at this point goes blue. We'll have to wait  and see. Ohio goes blue to get the flip in North. Carolina. Michigan stays blue. And Maine, yes,  even in Maine, you get a flip. But here's the. thing I want you to keep in mind as we look at  this. the race in these states. Maine, Kansas,

Iowa stays red, and Alaska are all very, very,  very close. It wouldn't surprise me if any of. these seats went the other way. Now, if you're  truly a nerd at home, you might be tallying up. and you go, "Harry, wait a minute. It's actually  53 seats that you're showing in that Democrats. will win in in terms of the seats they currently  have and then the seats that they would gain in. this election. Here's the thing. We're talking  probabilistically. So that one of these states.

one of these states that currently that I am  saying are going to go blue may not go blue. I mean the race in Kansas right now in the polling  in the projections it seems to be very very tight. Maybe that seat actually goes red. We don't know.  We're talking probabilistically and when we add. it up it's 52 Democrats and 48 Republicans. So  that is right now the final seat forecast. We'll. go back after the election, see how it works out  individually, but I'm putting it on the line right. here. And with that, we head to my favorite  section. Yes. Yes. It's the bonus section.

Look, I know some of you saying House, Senate, but  what about the GVs? You're truly a nerd. You're. saying, you know, you're interested in governors  outside of your state. But don't worry, I got you. covered. I got you covered. Chance in a majority  of GVs are Democrats. And this comes from Koshi, CNN's prediction, prediction market partner. And  look at this. The chance up like a rocket. Up.

like a rocket. After the midterms, you know, back  on March 30th, it was just a 27% chance. Just a. 27% chance. Now, what are we talking about? We're  talking about an 83% chance. An 83% chance. So at. this point, it looks more likely than not, whether  you look at the prediction markets like this, whether you look at the polling data, whether  you look at the race raers, that most governors, the majority of governors after this election  will in fact be Democrats. And that is really.

rare. That is really rare in modern history  because look at this. Look at this. How about. the times that Dems held a majority of Gov  seats in the past 32 years? It's just 12. just 12% of the time. It is truly rare. So, if in  fact the projections do come true, we're looking. at something that some of you have maybe only seen  very little in your lifetime. I bet a lot of our. audience has only seen it for four years in their  lifetime. I mean, we're talking 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 when Democrats lost that governor's majority,  those those governor's mansions majority. Now,

look, as we look forward, I want to push the  ball forward a little bit right in our bonus. slide section. look ahead after the midterms if  the projections are right. I do wonder how Dem. the Democratic majorities are going to like their  voters back at home or put them in office because. you know what there's been a lot of demand on  Dem crime. Democrats are expecting a lot a lot. from their leaders if in fact they do win the  majorities because look at this net approval of. congressional dem leaders. You know the last  time you had a Trump midterm it was plus 19.

points. Look where it is now way down there. It's  minus 12 points. This is Democrats on Democrats. for goodness sake. Democrats don't even like  their own leaders. They're sick of their own. leaders. And that puts a lot of pressure on  Democrats if in fact they do get into power. And there's a one leader they're specifically  don't like. And that is this gentleman. And. that is the senior senator from the great state  of New York, my home state, Chuck Schumer. His. net popularity rating among Democrats is minus  five points. I went back and looked at all the.

polling that I could since 1985. That's over 40  years of polling. And you know what that is? He's. the least popular Democratic leader in the United  States Senate since at least 1985. Well, folks, that's it. I'm done. This has been a lot. My voice  is running a little low. Oh, no. Wait a minute. I. got it back. The mic helped me a lot. And with  that, folks, you know what I say. Peace out.