Less than 1% of GOP midterm ads mention Trump: What's really going on

Sometimes there's a stat out there so eyepopping,  so staggering that to figure out what the heck is. actually going on out there. You know, less than  1% of GOP ads mention Trump in the early part of. September compared to 20% of all Democratic ads  that mention Trump's name. So, is this finally a. sign that the Republican base is abandoning Donald  Trump? Look, I'm going to dig into the data for. you. Looked at hundreds. No. Thousands of polls  and we're going to actually find out the real. truth as to what Republicans are thinking when it  comes to Donald Trump. You know, when it comes to.

non-MAGA, this is where we've absolutely seen  Donald Trump's numbers plummet into the ocean. Okay, non-MAGA on Trump. You know, in the 2024  election, the non-MAGA Republicans, they favored. Trump over Kla Harris by 56 points. That is wider  wider than the Red Sea. But now his net approval. rating in September of 2026, look at that among  non-MAGA Republicans is down to just plus seven. points. That is a shift, my dear friends, of  get this 49 points away from the president of.

the United States among non-Maga Republicans. So  a support is definitely not just ebbing there, but is absolutely crashing there. And it's  more than that because non-Maga Republicans, look at this, they are not motivated to turn out  and vote in 2026 at all. Okay? Extremely motivated. to vote in 2026. Among Democrats, it's 71%. But  look at this. non-MAGA Republicans just 46 just. 46%. That's a difference of 25 points. That is  non-MAGA Republicans are 25 points less likely.

to say they're extremely motivated to turn  out and vote. And this is the type of number. that might make you think, oh, Donald Trump is a  real turkey along with the rest of the Republican. party when it comes to the midterm elections.  But are they? Well, of course, at this point, if you've been following along politics, there's a  natural question that you might want to be asking. yourself, and that is, but what about MAGA? What  about the Make America Great Again movement? How.

are those Republicans feeling about the president  of the United States? And this is where we do. a little bit of a turn because take a look at  MAGA on Trump. Okay, MAGA GOP on Trump. In the. 2024 election versus Kla Harris, he got 99%  of the MAGA GOP vote. Perhaps surprisingly, I might have thought it'd be 100%, but it was  99%. Compare that to his approval rating now. at the MAGA GOP. It's 98%. That is, there's been  no real decline in MAGA support for the president.

of the United States. He is cool man Jack, you  might say, when it comes to MAGA GOP. Now, you. see this 99 to 98% and more than that, these folks  say that they're going to vote for congressional. Republicans come the midterm elections. Again,  that's the 99% that Trump got against Kla Harris. Look, now in terms of the congressional vote,  98% of them say they're going to be voting for. House Republican candidates. So, that support is  actually really holding up strong. It's really,

really strong when it comes to MAGA GOP and  Republicans holding on to that vote. And more than. that, more than that, look at this. The certain to  vote say they're certain to vote in 2026. Again, 71% of Democrats say they are certain in fact to  vote in 2026. And look at this. MAGA Republicans. the same. It's sympatico. It's sympatico. So MAGA  Republicans are not just saying that they are. still supporting Trump. MAGA Republicans aren't  just saying they're going to their choice for.

Congress is in fact Republicans at basically the  same level they voted for Trump, but they're also. saying they are going to turn out in very high  numbers, at least comparable to Democrats. Now, this leaves us a bit of a mathematical equation,  right? This leaves us with a bit of a mathematical. equation, but this is a lot of math on the screen.  It's a lot of math on the screen. I need a little. drink to hydrate myself here. This leaves us with  a bit of a mathematical formula that is MAGA plus.

non-MAGA Republicans. What does that add up to?  What does that equal in terms of the Republican. party? Well, my dear friend Gordon here is  telling me something. Ah, yes. Ah, yes. And. that is he handed me this note which is about 50  to 60% of the Republican party is in fact made up. of MAGA that is make a make America great again  supporters. Right? So what does this mean? What. does this mean in terms of Donald Trump and the  Republican party? Well, this is a troubling sign.

for Republicans and for Donald Trump heading into  the midterm elections. Trump and the GOP among. Republicans, he got 94% of that vote against Kla  Harris. That is when you had non-MAGA Republicans. and MAGA Republicans. Look at his approval rating  now. His approval rating now is 80%. So, in fact, there has been a decline in the support for Trump  among Republicans. It's a decline of 14 points. We've gone from 2024 being the largest GOP margin  in a presidential race in over 50 years to now.

80% support approval for Donald Trump. And what's  so interesting about this, what's so interesting. about this is put in the history, right? We're  always, you know, I'm calling back the past. I'm. always calling up the past. You know, I'm using my  landlines here, calling up the past and wondering, okay, okay, where does Trump compare to other  Republicans at this point going into a second. midterm election? Well, it turns out, look at  this GOP president's approval premidterm among. the base September. Trump actually is the worst  of any of the Republicans on your screen. Ronald.

Reagan was at 93%. George W. Bush was at 82%.  Dwight Eisenhower 81%. Donald Trump is no better. than the other two right here. It's within  a margin of error, but technically speaking, he's in the worst shape. He's just at 80%  among Republicans at this point. And Gordon, is that another note that you have for me here?  I think that it is. In fact, right now, if you. were to do the inverse of this or the reverse of  this GOP disapproval, now at 19%, it's actually.

slightly higher than it was post January 6, 2021.  Gordon, always coming in with those notes. Always. coming in with those notes. And you know, Kate  is showing me the times. I always want to make. sure I'm not speeding too much, but I actually  feel really good about this. We got a good chunk. of things that we still got to get through here.  And it's going to teach us a lot of stuff. Now, I. would argue though the biggest problem isn't just  a decline in the overall approval ratings. It's. the strongly approved. That is the people whose  the Republicans whose hearts are pounding for the.

president of the United States, right? They're  really going fast. Republicans traditionally. have loved Donald Trump. But look at this. GOP  strongly approve of Trump. At the start of 2025, it was 71%. Look at where it is now. It's just  47%. That is a decline of 24 points. That's a. decline of 24 points. That is Republicans like  80% is still a pretty good number even if it's. significantly down. But the ones who truly love  Donald Trump, the ones who would go, you know,

belly over the hot coals, right? Belly over the  hot coals, those folks have started not to be as. large portion and now they are a minority of the  Republican party. But the big question is why, right? Why? What is going on? What is cooking?  You know, one of my favorite little things always. to pop out here is my wallet. I mean, the wallet  is insane. And today it's just absolutely filled. with $5 bills. And I think that this will give  you an idea of what is going on here. What is. going on these $5 bills? Well, look at this GOP  Republican the Republican net approval of Trump.

on inflation. Putting away this money here because  now we got the inflation on the screen. You know, a retrospective approval rating back in 2024.  Look at this. Donald Trump's net approval rating. I just love a tennis ball. Was plus 68 points.  Now it's been kicked away, kicked downward. Now. it's just plus three points. That is a decline of  65 points on the net approval rating for Donald.

Trump on the issue of inflation that got him  into the White House in the first place is now. a big reason why the Republicans are in fact at  least some of them abandoning the president of. the United States. And of course, one of the major  drivers of this, this 65 point decline, how about. this? Look at this. Trump net approval, fuel and  gas prices in June of 2025. Look at this. It was. plus 51 points. Look at it now. Minus 12 points.  Minus 12 points. That is Trump is underwater. He's.

swimming. He's swimming with the deep in the  deep blue sea. And oh, I guess as Kate says, more money, more problems, right? More money, more  problems. Swimming in the deep, or should I say. red sea at minus 12 points, the is underneath the  straightup moves when it comes to his approval, his net approval rating on fuel and gas prices.  And when you put it all together, right,

the real question is, what does this mean for the  midterm elections? Well, look, the vast majority. of Republicans are still going to vote Republican,  but any ebbing of that support, any ebbing of. that base is a big problem for Republicans given  how closely divided our politics are right now. Right? So, choice for Congress margin by party.  Democratic voters, they say that they're going to. support Democrats by a 95 point margin. But now  look at Republican voters, that's an 87 point.

margin. These are the types of differences on  which waves are built. This eightoint difference, yes, I can still do math. Eight-point difference  is waves are built in which Republican majorities. become Democratic majorities. And look at this. My  dear friend Gordon is telling me that a majority. a major, sorry, not a majority, a little bit more  than 10%. A little bit more than 10% depending on. which poll you look at. I think the Fox News poll  was 14% I think it was 14% of non-MAGA Republicans.

are voting voting for Democratic candidates. And  that's an absolute killer. That's an absolute. killer for the Republican party heading into  the midterm election. But it's more than just. a choice for Congress, right? It's more than  just a choice for Congress. It's whether they're. going to show up. And this, I think, kind of  gives the game away. Traditionally speaking, Republicans are the ones who are more likely to  vote in midterm elections. Now, Democrats have. are six points more likely to vote in 2026 than  Republicans. You go through all the record books,

go through all the polls that you can find, you  will see that this is the largest dem lead in. terms of certainty to vote on record premidterm  in the 21st century at this point in the midterm. cycle. This is a huge, huge shift from what you  normally see. So, fewer Republicans are supporting. Republican candidates and more than that, fewer of  them say that they're going to show up and vote. These are the types of numbers that if you're a  Republican, I would 100% be calling your office.

Or if you prefer a modern phone, maybe you  want something like the Oh, wait a minute. No, this one might actually be older. Regardless, but  here's the other thing that I think is going on. What is the other big reason why Republicans  less than 1% of their ads are featuring Donald. Trump compared to about 20% of Democratic ads?  Well, it's time for my favorite part of this, and that is the bonus slides. The bonus  slide section. What else is going on? Well, you got Democrats, you got Republicans, but  what about independents? Right? As Republican.

lawmakers and those who want to become Republican  lawmakers are going out and meeting the voters, they may realize that Republicans are less likely  to support Donald Trump. But more than that, they realize independents are less likely to  support Donald Trump. Look at these numbers. here. You may have seen these before, but they are  just absolutely astounding to me. Pure independent. voters. that is those who don't lean towards  either party. In the 2024 election, Trump won. him by 15 points over Kla Harris. Look at his net  approval rating now. His net approval rating now.

among pure independent voters is minus 71 points.  That's an 86 point difference. That is a huge. difference. And the same thing that is bringing  Trump's approval rating down with Republican. voters is what's impacting him among independent  voters. You can see it here. I mean, it's the. economy. It's the economy. Pure independence.  Trump in the economy. Look at this. In the fall of. 2024, Donald Trump, among pure independents, was  trusted more to handle the economy than Kla Harris. by a 22 point margin. His net approval rating now  is minus 77 points. It's minus 77 points. Okay?

And that's a difference of a very unlucky 99 if  you're Republicans running for the House of the. Senate. No wonder why so few Republicans want  to mention Donald Trump. Because when it comes. to again the wallet, I think I still have some  money here. I do. Man, I really have a lot of. fives in here. I don't know what it is. I guess  I really just like Abraham Lincoln or something. like that. No other bills except maybe a lucky  two. I love my $2 bills. 99 points. And what's.

driving that at this point? What's really hurting  Donald Trump? Well, it's the gas prices. It's the. gas prices. Pure independence on gas prices and  Trump. The independent voters. Pure independent. voters. Eight. It's eight. It's just 8%. It's  just 8% 92% 92% that is more than nine in 10 pure. independents disapprove of Trump on gas prices.  You put that together with his negative net.

approval rating on gas prices among Republicans  and it makes a mathematical formula that makes. a whole heck of a lot of uh uh uh sense. It  makes a whole heck of a lot of sense. Anyway, hopefully this video made a whole heck of a lot  of sense to you. And if it did or you want me. to cover something in the future, leave a comment.  Leave a comment. Leave a comment. We do read them.

We get ideas from your comments. But until the  next time around, hang easy, my friends. Be well.