If Texas turns blue, everything changes. Here’s how

What if James Talerico actually does the  impossible and turns Texas blue? What does it. mean for 2026? How does he do it? And what does it  mean going forward? Well, if James Terico actually. wins in Texas, get this. He gives Democrats a  78% chance of winning the United States Senate. Basically, they would be very, very close to  doing so. But why? Why would it be the case that. Democrats would be so close to doing so if James  Telico wins in Texas and turns Texas blue? Well,

just take a look here. Okay, the most likely  seat to determine control of the United States. Senate. It's Texas. It's Texas cuz Democrats need  to flip four seats. They need to flip four seats. And guess which seat is number four most likely to  flip? It's Texas. It's Texas. Look at this. James. Terico has a 70% chance of winning in the great  state of Texas compared to Ken Paxton who has a. 30% chance of winning in the state of Texas. And  I will note as Terico's chances have been going. up and they have been going up. Democrats chances  of winning control of the United States Senate,

they've also been going up. Going up like a  rocket. But of course, it's always a roll of. the dice when it comes to these Senate races. So,  if James Taller Rico does in fact win in Texas. and Texas turns blue, what does it mean? What  does it mean for money, money, money? You know, if you're looking at all of the different metrics  so far for the United States Senate in the races, what you see is the one big Republican advantage  they have is outside spending. And you see it in.

Texas. I mean, look at these numbers. My goodness  gracious. You got to put on some shades to. understand these numbers because they are really  truly eyepopping numbers. Republicans right now, Texas outside spending from September onward and  ad spending, look at this. $167 million million. dollar. Compare that to Democrats. The outside  spending, look at this. Only $6.8 million. What. is that a difference of? It's nearly a difference  of 160 million with an M. But here's the thing.

Republicans have all that outside spending  in Texas, but it's going right up against. the individual candidate spending. So you see  that $160 million advantage or nearly there. in. And look at this. The Texas Senate candidate  spending. That is the individual candidates. How. much are they spending? Look at James Terico. He  is absolutely crushing. He is absolutely crushing. Kemp Paxton. I mean, Kemp Paxton should probably  get on the phone with some of those folks and say,

"Hello, I need money." "Hello, that's why there's  all that outside spending because James Telerico, $31 million compared to Kemp Paxton. What is  this? It's 352,000." No, that is not a misprint. He's not even in the millions in terms of the ad  spending. He's in the hundreds of thousands. So, James Terico has a $31 million advantage. And  the question is, if in fact Texas does turn blue, what does that mean? Outside spending versus  candidate spending, it means that candidate.

spending overtakes outside spending. And that  means so much for the electoral map because. the trends that we're seeing in Texas, well, they  go nationwide. They go nationwide because look at. nationwide. Okay, national spending leader from  September onward in candidate spending. Look at. this. Democrats had the advantage. $49 million are  there and about. But look at the outside spending. Again, these are just they're outside. They're  outside my eyeballs. I mean, literally jumping off.

the page. They have an advantage of $378 million.  This is the key Republican advantage. But if. Democrats can beat it back in Texas, then they're  likely to do so nationwide. Of course, that. isn't the only lesson. if Texas does in fact turn  blue. You know, one of the things that we've been. talking about so much when I talk with my friends,  and yes, I have a very nerdy group of friends, is can we actually trust the polls, right? Because  back in 2024, Donald Trump vastly outperformed his. polls, right? At least the polls that were on from  September, right? September turn to October. And.

you know what? Right now, what we see is look, if  the 2026 Senate map actually matches the polling, Democrats, hey, hey, hey, hey, we're doing really  well. We're calling up all of our friends are. saying, "Yes, yes, we've done it." Because  Democrats would be in the Catbird seat. 53. seats to Republicans 47. They'd flip Ohio. They'd  flip North Carolina. They'd flip Iowa. They'd flip.

Alaska. And yes, they would turn Texas blue.  So, if Texas turns blue, if Texas does in fact. turn blue, what would that mean about the polling  misses? Well, it would mean that maybe they're not. going to happen because take a look here. In 2024,  GOP outperformed their se September polls by in. the major statewide races. In Iowa, it was nine.  In Texas, it was seven. It was seven. In Ohio, it. was six. In Michigan, it was 1, two, three, four,  five. Yes, I can count to five, baby. We did it.

We did it. And if we in fact do have these same  exact overperformances from Republicans, well, this 5347, what does that turn into? Well, it  turns into boom 5149 Republicans because Michigan, that would go from blue to red. How about Texas?  That would go from blue to red. Iowa the same.

Ohio the same. So, what happens in Texas could  very well tell us what is going on nationwide. Because if Texas turns blue, it means that all of  this red right here, well, maybe the polls would. actually indicate that they would turn blue. But  of course, if Texas turns blue, that's not the. only thing that it would tell us, right? So, it  would tell us a lot about the Republican coalition. because if Texas turns blue, it would indicate  that MAGA can't win without non-white voters,

without voters of color. Because one of the key  shifts, one of the key shifts that we saw in 2024, the reason why Donald Trump won a second term  was because of non-white voters. Look at this. From 2020 to 2024, the presidential margin,  the shift among white voters, look at this. Democrats actually gained a point. They actually  did a point better among white voters. But what. happened among non-white voters? Look at that.  Republicans gained 14 points. This is why.

Donald Trump won a second term. It was non-white  voters. It was non-white voters. But guess what's. happening in 2026? Non-white v voters are turning  Donald Trump and the Republican voters upside. down, inside out in the great state of Texas. You  can see it here. Look at this. Okay. Margin with. non-white voters in Texas in 2024. Kla Harris won  them by 11 points. She won them by 11 points. Look.

right now. Look right now in the latest polling  data that we have. James Taler Rico is winning. among voters of color, non-white voters by 39  points. What is that? My mathematics say that. that is a 28 point shift. Is a 28 point shift. If  in fact James Taller Rico is able to win in Texas, what would this indicate for the rest of the  electoral map? Because when we look at non-white. voters, right? We look at non-white voters, we see  that the Sarah citizens, look at this. In Texas,

they're 51%. If James Terico wins in Texas,  they're likely to also win in you can kiss. a goodbye. Georgia Senate, see you later. It is  a huge a huge caution sign. wet floor you might. slip on the way out if you're a Republican  running for the United States Senate in the. South. And you can see that other states,  look at this. North Carolina, 34% of the. citizen population is non-white. How about in  South Carolina, it's 32% of the population. Oh, my friend Gordon wants to pass me a note. We'll  take a look at this in a second. Sh. You're going.

to have to stay tuned. So, North Carolina,  Georgia probably off the board in addition to. Texas. And then I think Democrats could actually  be competitive in South Carolina. And of course, South Carolina hasn't elected a Democrat to  the United States Senate since 1998 when Fritz. Hollands, who had a fantastic Charleston accent,  won re-election. He always won re-election in. South Carolina. Let's take a look. Ah, yes. My  dear friend Gordon wants to point out that of.

course in Texas there's a lot more going on than  just non-white voters. How about this? How about. this? Texas evangelical voters. Texas evangelical  voters. If you can't read it, Trump won him by 73. points back in 2024. Greg Abbott, who's running  for the governorship of Texas, is leading him by. 62 points. How about white evangelicals? Kemp  Paxton, though, only winning him by, get this, only winning them by 48 points. Only winning  him by 48 points compared to Abbott's 62 points.

In other words, maybe scandals do matter. Maybe,  maybe, maybe. It turns out that white evangelicals. do not want candidates who in fact leave their  wives. He's winning, but they don't even like him. They don't even like him. His favorability rating  is only plus 14 with white evangelicals. So, it. turns out that scandals may actually matter. And  this is something we've seen in the polling data. going forward. Maybe Republicans aren't going to  be nominating candidates who are scandal plague. Who are scandal plague going forward. Now, I will  say this. This has definitely taken a little bit.

of energy out of me. So, it's time for drink. I  don't know what the heck this is. Let's try it. H, interesting. Not sure I necessarily like it,  but whatever. It's a bubbly drink. It's fine. by me. It keeps me hydrated. But what else? What  else matters? If in fact, Texas turns blue. Well, you know what? We're not just talking about  20 26. What about going into the future, right? What about going into the future? We  really we really want to take the peel off of.

this banana. That's what we really want to do.  If Texas turns blue, the 2028 presidential race, that's pretty good. What does it mean? What  does it mean if Texas turns blue in 2026? Well, you know what? The last time Democrats actually  won a Texas Senate race was back in 1988. The. last time they won a presidential race was  1976. Oh my goodness gracious. James Earl. Carter was the last Democrat to carry Texas in a  presidential race. And you know what? Get this.

GOP presidents who would have won without Texas  in the last 35 years. This is the easiest counting. of all time. It's just one. It's just one. If  you're a Republican, you really do need to win. in Texas if you want to be elected president. You  really do need to be What was that, Kate? Who is. it? Who is it? Was actually Donald Trump. It was  actually Donald Trump. That was who who did it, but he barely did it. He barely did it. He barely  got over the 270 electoral mark. But basically,

if you're a Republican, you need to be able to win  in Texas if you're going to win the presidency. And you know what? That's even more the case  going into the future because take a look here. Texas electoral votes by decade. In n in 1980s, it  was 29. In the 2000s, look at this, 34. In 2022, that is this decade, 40. The projection for 2032  is 44. Texas is becoming more important. If all of. a sudden if Texas goes blue, if Texas goes blue in  2026, much better chance then that would probably.

go blue in 2028, which would be a downright  disaster. A downright disaster for Democrat for. Republicans and California and New York, this is  what this is notes that I get. California and New. York of course are losing seats. Texas is gaining.  So Texas taking on added importance. Thank you. Gordon for the note. Now, what is reason number  five? Oh, it's my favorite. It's the bonus round.

Oh, yeah. We We'll come up with a better theme  than that. If Texas turns blue, what does it mean. going forward? Well, one of the questions, and  we tackled this last week, right? Are Republicans. actually turning against Donald Trump? Well, in  our bonus round, I would say this. If Texas turns. blue, and that means the United States Senate is  likely to turn blue, it means that Republicans. had a terrible midterm election, right? They  lost control not just of the House but of the. United States Senate as well. And you know when  Donald Trump hit basically his low point, his low.

point in the last five years when it came to his  popularity rating, it was after the GOP's subpar. 2022 midterms. This is just a Quinnipiac poll  on your screen. Look at this. Lowest opinion of. Trump among voters in seven years. In seven years,  MAGA, the Republican base is all about winning. When all of a sudden that wonderful clothing that  Donald Trump wins that he struts around in, right? He struts around and I'm a winner. I'm a winner.  When all of a sudden Republicans lose, the idea,

the veneer that Donald Trump is a winner, it  disappears. And you can see in the polling data, and it's not just Quinnipiac, take a look here.  Okay, Trump's favorable rating with the GOP post. the 2022 midterms. Well, his favorable overall  was 66%. Of course, he got about 95%. He got. about 95 or 94% of the vote back in 2024 among  Republicans. So he was significantly lower than. that. Way way down there. And his very favorable  rating, his very favorable rating was 39%. Ergo,

well less than a majority of Republicans actually  viewed him very favorably after the Republicans. had a subpar 2022 midterm. Would the same thing  happen after 2026? Look, I don't know the answer. to that question necessarily, but what I do know  is it would be the best shot so far for those. who are hoping that the GOP actually breaks away  for Trump for it to actually happen. All right, folks. If Texas turns blue, I got a feeling we're  going to be doing a lot more videos about Texas. come 2027 in 2028. But in the meantime, leave a  comment in the comments section about what you.

liked, what you didn't like. And you know what? I  think I'm going to enjoy the rest of this banana.