How much is El-Sayed's Israel stance hurting him in MI? CNN unpacks

Just 7 days until that final vote. We're focusing  in on the Senate contest in Michigan between. Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul Elsed.  Their positions on US support for Israel have. become a key focal point of the race and it turns  out poll numbers are starting to pull strongly in. favor of one side. CNN chief data analyst Harry  Anton is here. So, does this issue of Israel seem. to be helping Rogers or Elsad in Michigan at this  point? You know, I'm all about the numbers and. the numbers here to me tell a pretty compelling  story. I think a lot of Republicans think they can.

use the issue of Israel against Abdul Elsad, but  the polling numbers don't suggest that that is in. fact necessarily a good idea or working. What  are we talking about? Well, why don't we just. take a look at this? This is the Senate choice  in Michigan among all likely voters. You know, a Fox News poll at the end of last month found  that Elsa was up by just a single point. That is. well within the margin of error, right? But look  at those voters who were most focused on Israel or. say they were focused on Israel. Look at this.  Elsa was actually up eight amongst them. Ergo,

he was doing better among the voters who said  that Israel was extremely important and the issue. of Israel was extremely important in their vote  than he is doing among voters overall. Therefore, to me, when you look at this data, what this  suggests is the issue of Israel is not to the. detriment of Elsa. If anything, it may be helping  him a little bit. Why is that? What are voters. saying about why that is? Yeah. Why is that? You  know, I think one of the key questions here is, you know, aid to Israel, military aid to Israel.  Should we end it? Should we reduce it? I mean,

look at this. Okay. Overall, 54% of of Michigan  voters, in fact, say that we should end or reduce. aid to Israel. What about independents, those  in the center of the electorate, look at this, it's 61%. In fact, those in the center of the  elector are actually slightly more likely to say. that we should end or reduce aid to Israel. So,  this was not just an issue that worked for Elsa. in the Democratic primary. To me, it's an issue,  at least when we look at overall. Israel is an. issue that actually is more likely to help Elsa  than it is to help Mike Rogers because simply put,

voters in Michigan, and we've seen this nationally  as well, think that we give too much money over to. Israel, especially when it comes to military aid.  Speaking of aid or money, Apac has given money. to one candidate, not the other, Mike Rogers. Um  and of course Elsaiad has gone after Apac. How do. people feel about Apac in general? Yeah. Okay. So  this is I think the other thing that's been going. on, right? We've seen in Democratic primaries.  We've seen those Democratic candidates, especially.

those on the left go after Apac. But I think the  question is how about those in the center of the. electorate? How about those in a general election?  Because what may work in a Democratic primary may. not work in a general electorate. But take a look  at this. How about the net favorability rating of. Apac in Isra in Michigan among likely voters?  Look at this. Overall, Apac is not wellliked at. all. A negative 25 point net favorability rating.  And again, among independents, we're not talking. about Democrats here. Again, 25 points underwater.  Way underwater down there on Lake Michigan. So,

you put it all together. You look at the  polling where you say, "Hey, are you is. Israel an important issue to you? You know, those  who are focused on it, you see Elsa actually doing. slightly better than he is overall." You look  at the polling here on those uh those who say we. should end or reduce military aid to Israel. You  see the majority of Michigan voters there. And you. look at Apac's net favorability rating awful in  Michigan. To me, you put it all together. I don't. think the Israeli issue is necessarily helping  Mike Rogers. If anything, it is helping Abdul. Aliad. That's what it looks like in the polling.  We will see what happens. We will see. There's.

still still a week to go. There is a week to go  and it may be a lot longer than that depending. how close. I'm just saying depending how close  it is. No, no, don't say it. Don't say you don't. want to hear that. Okay, Harry and it's so good to  see you. You're going to be very tired. President. Trump yet again taking aim at Abdul El Say  leveling fresh attacks, saying that the election. of the Democratic Senate nominee would threaten  Christmas. I'm here to keep a jihadist Muslim.

Brotherhood member from becoming a United States  senator. And that's the fact. We're not going to. let that happen. If Abdul and the Democrats win,  they will open the floodgates and invite hordes. of jihadists to our shores, creating a nightmare  of violence and terror until you cannot even have. a Christmas or Republicans have increasingly  drawn attention to El Say's Muslim faith during. the closing weeks of one of the most important  races of the midterms. But El Say is now firing.

back. I get that the the president of the United  States takes personal offense to my first name. He doesn't mind as much when it's a shared name  from the Saudis who are funding his son-in-law's. private equity. Doesn't seem to mind as much  when it's the Qataris who are giving him a. $400 million private jet. I don't care how he  pronounces my name. I don't even care that he.

remembers my whole name cuz he can just  go on and call me Senator after November. That'll be Senator Muhammad to you, bro.  David Wasserman. I would have thought that. it would be less risky to play the socialist  card against Abdul El Say than the Muslim. card. I want to show you some data. First of the  head-to-head in this race. We've got it at 4947,

but that comports with Cook Political Report,  right? You see it that way? Yeah. Okay. Second. slide. Look at how independents are now regarding  socialism. There's been an uptick in favorability. They've moved in the last year from 37% favorable  to 45% favorable. Third slide. Now, let's talk. about the way in which Americans perceive Muslims.  43% perceive them as less patriotic than other.

Americans. This is according to Pew Research. 42%  have a negative impact on the country. That's the. perception of Muslims. I guess therein lies the  answer as to why this is the way the White House. the president is going in the last 8 days.  Well, it's still a minority of the electorate. including disheartening, is it not? Well, look,  if you're Republicans and you're a strategist. for Mike Rogers's campaign, I'm curious your take,  Scott, but you'd rather be prosecuting the case on.

Elsa's positions on the issues than calling him a  jihadist. You'd rather be talking about abolishing. a federal law enforcement agency and open borders.  You'd rather be talking about socialized medicine. But most voters in Michigan personally know  someone who's Muslim, and the Arab-American. vote in Michigan's twice as large as the Jewish  vote. But really the target here is the voters. who are doubly disenchanted with Trump and not  yet comfortable with the Democratic alternative. That should be Rogers's audience right now.  They're very negative towards socialism,

but they're also very negative towards Republicans  on tariffs and energy costs. I think the Canadian. tariffs are what put Mike Rogers in a bind  and make it very difficult for him to separate. himself from the president enough to win the race.  Lydia, it's the size of that Muslim population in. Michigan that caused me to say, "This is the  wrong, I hate to put it in these terms, card. to play in the final eight days of the election.  Why not go the socialist route?" You're thinking, "What?" So, I disagree with your characterization  that Republicans are being anti-muslim. They are.

being anti- Elsaiad, who has repeatedly refused to  deny or distance himself from Muslim Brotherhood. ties. I want to highlight something that just  came out in 2012. He signed a letter in support. of then Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood leader Morsey  and urged him to purge the media and the police. force as quickly as possible of dissenters. He  told Christian Welker, "No, no familiar ties to. the Muslim Brotherhood." Well, we're learning  that actually his mother was involved with an. organization that I watched all the Hamas and  all including the confrontation at the town hall.

Wait, I just want you to know I don't accept your  assertion that he's refused to cut all ties, deny. all you just acknowledged it recently. It's all a  semantic game. I've watched it four or five times. Why isn't he willing to say I disagree with my  sister? I'm not here to carry his water. Far from. it. But on this issue, I just don't think that's a  fair account. I think he's he's pressed then he he. lashes out at Brett Bear because Brett Bear wants  a real clear answer on how did you probably sick. and tired of having to answer the same question.  He never fully answered it. Has he fully answer?

What do you think about his inability to answer  the question, what's a bigger threat, Israel or. Iran? What do you think about his answer to the  question uh when that uh radical ran their truck. into the synagogue, hurt people, hurt people?  The reason he's having to answer all of these. questions is because he has made so many mistakes  in his own positioning, in his own rhetoric in. this campaign. And then when journalists, as Lydia  points out, follow up with him, his sneering,

condescending, defensive attitude leads to more  questions. That is his problem. Is he sneering and. condescending on this issue? Listen, u the the the  things that he said that Scott pointed out were. terrible things to say and he shouldn't have said  them. But to say that he has not distanced himself. from the Muslim Brotherhood is just not accurate.  He said multiple times, I'm not a member, even in the when he blew up at at Brett Bear, to  your point, probably annoyed. He said, "I'm not a. member of the So, I think that the problem is if  if it's Scott Jennings asking focused questions.

about actual mistakes, that's one thing. But  when you have the president of United States. saying he's going to open up the borders and let  in jihadists, that is a lie and is a lie based on. uh uh bigotry. It's a lie based on scaring  people about him being a Muslim." He's never. said anything about opening the borders for jadis.  He's said dumb things about foreign policy, but. not about that. And so, and so, but I just I just  I just want to say this. This is the worst mistake. that the Republicans are making because they're  driving up Muslim turnout. And to your point,

the Musl the Muslim turnout is very big. They're  driving it through the roof and they're also are. scaring people away from Rogers cuz people don't  want to be a part of something. Alarm you that. he won't condemn the Ayatollah because he doesn't  want I didn't I didn't like when he did that. So, so talk about that. What what does that have to  do with calling him Muhammad Muhammad Muhammad. and talking calling him the jihadist? He has done  and said things that deserve and then when people. ask him about it he gets defensive. I I think all  those things are correct but I think Republicans. are making a horrific mistake if they want to  stop Abdul this this all of the jumping the.

shark and calling him a jihadist when he is not  saying he's going to open up the border which he. is not going to do. Mike Rogers has not said his  opponent has not said any of those things. Well. your president Joanna you want in on this? My my  my point is that actually Abdul um Alsed has got. under Donald Trump's skin and Donald Trump is a  man who's flailing. He says he's not on the ballot. but he is on the ballot and he's going after  him because he's trying to create a diversion.

from his horrible policies which is why the  Republicans are in the place that they're in. The. Elsa campaign distancing itself from a commercial  that was theoretically produced in support of his. candidacy. Roll it. You're going to have to put  those eggs back. They don't like eggs anymore. No, they like eggs. But we have to set that $7 aside  for killing Palestinians. What I mean, don't we. give Israel $4 billion a year anyways? Yeah. And  now we're giving them another $26 billion. Do you.

know how much that is per American taxpayer?  No. It's like $161 per person. Apparently, it's costing us a lot of money to drop bombs on  Gaza. Okay. Theoretically for Elsed, when I saw. it, I said to myself, "Wait a minute. This must  be a campaign trick. There's going to be blowback. This must be a Mike Rogers commercial." Did  anybody else have that reaction? No. Yes. Look, I I I'm trying I want to be very consistent  here. I don't like hate. I don't like hate.

I don't like hateful rhetoric. I don't like if  when it's against the Muslims. I don't like it. when it's against the Jewish people or when it's  against uh our ally in the in the Middle East. This is a very dangerous ad because what it does  is it suggests that the reason that people can't. pay for things in the grocery store, bananas,  but bananas is because of, you know, the United. States is giving all this money to Israel. We give  a very small amount of money to Israel compared to. all the other foreign assistance that we do. But  you're picking out the Jewish state and you're.

pointing to the Jewish state. and of all the we we  we spend money in Qatar. We spend money all around. the world. But you're going to say because of the  Jewish state, that's why you're suffering. Listen, when that happens, when you start getting people  riled up, and you've seen this all through the. last century against Jews and blaming Jews for all  your problems, you're headed down a dark pathway. I have spoken aggressively against the anti-Muslim  hate in this in this campaign. This is an example. of anti-Jewish hate and it should be taken down  immediately and denounced. And by the way, Abdul.

should denounce this ad immediately. his campaign  has distanced itself from I just want I just want. to make this point. You've said it more clearly  than I intended at the outset. When I saw it, I thought it can't possibly be what it represents  on the surface. Surely it's intended to help Mike. Rogers because others will also be repulsed by  it. Go ahead, but quickly. Yeah, of course. Well, it's it's economic incoherence wrapped up in  anti-semitism, so it's sort of par for the course. I mean, Elsad himself in this campaign has argued  we can't have good education in this country.

because we fund the Iron Dome, which is completely  wrong, nuts, economic incoherence. By the way, eggs like 270 a carton, bananas 40 or 50 cents a  pound. It's economic incoherence. It's a lie. But. it's all done in service to anti-semitism. And  at the same time, Elsad's campaign running ads. featuring comments from Tucker Carlson. What  is a Jewish Democrat in Michigan supposed to. think right now? Why would Elsa have to answer  these questions? It's a mystery. I find myself in.

agreement with Scott Jennings. This is not a great  ad and it's almost as bad as Vivc Ramas Swami's. ad using Amy Actton's estranged mother, which I  think we're coming on to talk about, but those. two ads stick out in the campaign so far. The  Cleveland plane dealer deciding today they would. get involved in that race. They weren't going to  make an endorsement, but they endorsed Amy Actton.