Harry Enten's ultimate guide to the Texas Senate midterm race

The numbers coming out of Texas are mind-boggling.  They're eyepopping. I mean, just look at this. The Texas Senate race is now the most expensive  Senate race of all time. We're talking about ad. spending $545 million. My goodness gracious. And  of course, this is made up of all the ads coming. from both the left and the right. And you know  what? James Talerico, look at this number. He is. now the greatest, the best fundraiser for a Senate  campaign ever. At least through this point in the.

campaign, he has raised $146 million up like a  rocket from when he first started off his campaign. back in 2025. Now, of course, the Republicans,  they're trying to bring in the cavalry. They're. trying to knock James Terico out of the equation,  out of the United States Senate. And you know who. they're bringing in? They're bringing in Elon  Musk. Look at this. Look at how much money Elon. Musk has put into the Texas Senate race when we  include his joint fundraising committees. We are.

talking about $158 million. I'm sure there were  people at Republican headquarters going on. Hello. Hello. We need your help, Rocket Man. We need your  help. And you know what? We'll see if Elon Musk is. able to in fact rescue the Republicans from the  Democrats being for the first time since 1988, sending a Democrat to the United States Senate  from the great state of Texas. Now, if James. Talerico is able to become the first Democrat  in the United States Senate since Lloyd Benson.

back in 1988, he's going to have to put together  a historic coalition. And you can see in the polls. just how he might be able to do so. Look at this.  among Hispanic voters. Oh my goodness gracious, what a performance improvement James Telerico  has in the 2026 polls compared to what we saw. back in 2024. Look at this. Among Latinos in  the great state of Texas, Donald Trump won him. by 10 points. Now look at James Terico. He's  winning him by 31 points in the polls. That's.

an improvement of I think we can do this math  together. 31 + 10 equals a 41 point improvement. My goodness gracious. But of course, it's not just  about Hispanics who make up a large share of the. Texas electorate. It's also about independence.  It's also about independence. And you know what? Sometimes you got to just have a little bit  of a banana when you're doing a hit, right? You got to do it. It's about independence. Look  at this. In 2024, Donald Trump won independence.

in the Lone Star State by a by a point. Look  now. Look at what James Talerico is doing. He is winning independence in the Lone Star State  by 30 points. By 30 points. That's a 31 point. improvement. And of course, that is so important  because in Texas, we know that Republicans, they make up the plurality of voters compared to  Democrats. By the way, if you're interested in. knowing how Texas is ultimately going to go,  not only do I suggest you watch this video,

I suggest you watch my final predictions, which  will be coming out later this week. My goodness. gracious, that's going to be a fun time. Now, of  course, I mentioned the Republican tradition in. Texas. What are we looking at here? Well, in  order to win in Texas, yes, there's the MAGA. vote. There's Kent Paxton, a big part of MAGA,  but there's also a lot of non-MAGA Republicans, and James Tarico is absolutely outperforming with  them. It's bananas still going on. Look at this.

national house ballot. The Democrats nationwide,  they're winning 12% of the non-MAGA vote, right? But look at what's going on in Texas. James  Telerico is winning 28% of non-MAGA Republicans. That is huge. That is huge. And that is a big  reason why James Telerico is doing as well. as he's doing in the polling data. Of course,  ultimately, we'll see if this ends up actually. coming to fruition. And one way you can know that  is by watching our election night special, which.

will be right here starting 7:00 p.m. on Tuesday  night when the polls are actually the first state. polls actually close. My goodness, that's going to  be a fun time. Now, when we look at these numbers, I think there is of course the big question which  that I have been hearing. Are the Texas polls are. they actually closing? Well, there's so much  more to unpack on that and so let's watch this. This is the best Democratic Senate polling since  Lloyd Benson won in Texas. What was that? That.

was 38 years ago. We're talking 1988. My goodness  gracious. We're talking about a clear what is it? 21 point advantage among independents. You know,  they talk about Texas turning blue in the past, but there's never been polling like this. James  Telerico in a historically strong position for. a Democrat in the great state of Texas. It's a  poll, but no Democrat has ever led by this much. this late since 1988. That is exactly right.  It is a poll. The voters will have their say.

in a few days, but this poll is the best polling  that we've seen for a Democrat since 1988 running. for Senate in Texas. So, they look favorably on  James Telerico. How are Texas voters looking upon. the Republican Ken Paxton? Yeah, you're talking  about earthshattering, earthquake stuff. I mean, the least popular Texas GOP Senate nominee this  century. I mean, look at this. Kent Paxton is 29. points underwater. He's lower than the Rio Grand  Valley in Texas. My goodness gracious. He's down. there in the Gulf of Mexico or Gulf of America if  we're talking Trump's language here. Kempacts a.

historically unpopular candidate which has helped  leading to James Telerico's historically strong. polling for a Democrat in Texas. Okay. What's  one of the big factors here? What is one of. the other big factors here besides Kemp Paxton  being so gosh darn unpopular? How about Donald. John Trump? I mean, just take a look here.  Republican president's net approval rating. in Texas around this point in a term. Look  at this. 18 points underwater. I mean, he's.

President Trump is joining Ken Paxton down there  swimming in the Gulf of America or Gulf of Mexico, depending on your political persuasion. I mean,  this is the most unpopular Republican president. at this point in a term this century. Way more  unpopular than Trump was in term number one. At this point, he's 21 points more unpopular  than he was in term number one. At this point, George W. Bush was a point underwater. Of  course, he was going, "Adios, amigos, goodbye, see you later." In those midterms, Republicans,  of course, lost both the House and the Senate. and way more unpopular than Bush was coming off  a 9/11 at plus 40 points. So, we see Donald Trump.

being historically unpopular, Ken Paxton being  historically unpopular for Republican Senate. nominee in Texas. And you put that together and  you get Democrats in their best position to win. a United States Senate seat in the great state  of Texas since 1988. And Lloyd Benson, is there. any sign that this enormous amount of money, I  mean, this is huge. $380 million. Is there any. sign that this is starting to move people towards  Republicans? Yeah. Okay. So, hundreds of millions.

of dollars being spent in Texas. My goodness  gracious. You know, if you just gave me like. 1/100th bet, I you would never see me again. But  no, I doubt that. No. Yeah, I I can't stay away. I'm Liza. I like it too much. Take a look here.  Texas said at polling, Talico versus Pax. I mean, just look at this. Look at this consistent average  of the polls that we are seeing in July at the end. of July. Look at that. It was Terico plus three.  August talico plus three. September talico plus.

three. October talico plus three. I mean, maybe  you want to make the arguments like 3.2 2 versus. like 2.7 or 2.8. But all of this money that is  being spent, it is basically three yards and. a cloud of dust right now in the great state of  Texas where Talerico holds this within the margin. of error, but still slight advantage that simply  puts Sarah Seid really doesn't seem to be moving. at all despite all of that money that is being  spent. Um, but we should mention it's still within.

the margin. We're going to trust me, you're going  to like the last slide of error. Stay tuned. Um, but I do love it when you go back in history  and you sort of give people an idea of where. campaigns were, for example, at this point for the  Senate years ago. Yeah. If you just take a look, you know, I think a lot of people feel like Texas  is a little bit of Lucy in the football, right? And you that last minute, oh, we're going to win.  Texas is going to turn blue and then the football. gets taken out. But this just looks different.  This just looks different. Okay, who is ahead in. Texas Senate races? I mean, just take a look. This  is mid-occtober polling in points. You know, right.

now what you got is Telerico three points. You go  back two years ago, it was the GOP by four. You. go back four, six years ago. Wow, I can't believe  2020 was six years ago. Is the GOP by seven. And. then I think the best historical comparison was  Trump's first midterm, right? Better there was. this all this energy that Democrats thought that  they had, but at this point Bor was trailing Ted. Cruz by about eight points and that margin was  with about three points at the end of the day. So. that was actually an example in which the Democrat  actually outperform their mid-occtober polls in.

a state like Texas. So it's not always the case  that the polls actually underestimate Republicans. Sometimes they underestimate Democrats. And at  this point what we're seeing in Texas is extremely. unusual. James Terico is the first Democratic  candidate for Senate to be up this late in the. campaign since, as Sarah said at the beginning,  1988. I said 1988. Oh, I'm sorry. Sorry, I I I just said what I wanted to hear. That's a  common problem, men. Touche. It sure is. Look, how.

often when you look back do candidates who are up  by something like three points within the margin. of error, how often do they win? Yeah, how often  do they win? This is what I do think is important. Candidates who are up by three win more often than  not. Okay. But but it's 67% of the time. So that. means about one in three times the candidate who  is trailing at this point by about the margin that. Ken Paxton is go on and win. And if you're a fan  of baseball, you know that one in three events.

happen very frequently. So at this point, you  know, slight slight slight slight little pressure. on the scale in favor of James Terico, but Ken  Paxton very much in the ball game. With all these. eyepopping stats coming out of the Texas Senate  race, it's important to remember that it's not. just the Senate that we are in fact watching,  it's the down ballot races as well. Democrats. versus Republicans, US House elections in Texas.  You know, you go back to 2024. The 2024 result, the statewide popular vote for the US House  was Republicans plus 18. Oo, let's get some pen.

here. There we go. We got some pen. Plus 18 for  Republicans. Look at it now. Look at it now. No. clear leader in the statewide polls on the generic  congressional ballot, but Democrats actually are. polling slightly better than Republicans at  plus two. That is a 20point movement. That is. a 20point movement to the left. And I was looking  up through the history books. This would in fact, if this were the final result, would be the best  Democratic showing this century in the state of.

Texas. You have to go all the way back to 1992  to find the last time that Texas Democrats won. the statewide vote when it came to the US House  of Representatives. The So this is truly historic. polling. It is not just at the top, but we're  seeing it in the US House of Representatives. polling as well. Unusual Democratic strength.  Where are you seeing in terms of the biggest. shift here? What's driving this? What is  driving this? What is driving this 18-2 this.

20 point shift going on? It's Hispanic voters.  It's Hispanic voters. Okay, Hispanic voters in. the great state of Texas. You know, you go back  to the 2024 election. Look at this. Donald Trump. won Hispanic voters by 10 points. Look at where  the US House polling is right now. It's Democrats. leading among Hispanic voters in the great state  of Texas by 31 points. That Republican brand, that. Donald Trump brand is in the garbage with Hispanic  voters in the great state of Texas. And this is, what is this, Kate? This is a 41 point shift to  the left. Democrats doing historically well with.

Hispanic voters, at least compared to where they  were two years ago in the great state of Texas. And of course, I will note in all of this, Texas  is the fastest growing state per USA facts. So, what we're essentially seeing right here is  Democrats picking up strength among the number one. group that is growing the fastest in Texas. This  is a very ugly picture of Republicans, not just. now, but long term as well. Texas is also was also  kind of the first big major driver when it came to.

came to the mid decade redistricting efforts that  Republicans led especially in Texas to try to gain. more advantage and gain more seats. What does this  mean for them? Yeah. Okay. So, one of the reasons. why Texas Republicans thought they could pick up  a lot of seats with that mid-cade redistricting. was the idea that Donald Trump put up historic  strength among Hispanic voters, right? But now all. of a sudden you see this, you go, "Wait a minute.  Wait a minute. Wait a minute. Maybe it's more of. a dummy mander than a gerrymander to actually  pick up seats. Airgo. It might not work out so.

well for them." Well, take a look at this. Okay.  The redistricting seat gains. Remember the Texas. redistricting GOP house gain. Their initial hopes  were that they could pick up up to five seats. Up. to five seats. But now the most likely outcome  as I look at sort of an aggregate of different. measures is they may pick up zero zero zero seats.  and upwards of two. But the bottom line is this. If Texas was this idea, Kate, that they could  pick up a ton of seats and sort of hold back,

hold back that, you know, almost a dam against  a Democratic wave, what Texas is showing is that. dam is breaking. The water is seeping through and  it is actually even going over the wall. And so, Texas Republicans, this may turn out to be not  anything what they imagine. It may be more of. a waterlue than a victory parade. What if James  Talerico actually does the impossible and turns. Texas blue? What does it mean for 2026? How does  he do it? And what does it mean going forward? Well, if James Talerico actually wins in Texas,  get this. He gives Democrats a 78% chance of.

winning the United States Senate. Basically, they  would be very, very close to doing so. But why? Why would it be the case that Democrats would  be so close to doing so if James Telerico wins. in Texas and turns Texas blue? Well, just take a  look here. Okay, the most likely seat to determine. control of the United States Senate, it's Texas.  It's Texas cuz Democrats need to flip four seats. They need to flip four seats. And guess which  seat is number four most likely to flip? It's.

Texas. It's Texas. Look at this. James Telerico  has a 70% chance of winning in the great state of. Texas compared to Ken Paxton who has a 30% chance  of winning in the state of Texas. And I will note. as Terico's chances have been going up and they  have been going up, Democrats chances of winning. control of the United States Senate, they've  also been going up. Going up like a rocket. But. of course, it's always a roll of the dice when it  comes to these Senate races. So if James Tallerico. does in fact win in Texas and Texas turns blue,  what does it mean? What does it mean for money,

money, money? You know, if you're looking at all  of the different metrics so far for the United. States Senate in the races, what you see is the  one big Republican advantage they have is outside. spending. And you see it in Texas. I mean, look  at these numbers. My goodness gracious, you got. to put on some shades to understand these numbers  because they are really truly eye popping numbers. Republicans right now, Texas outside spending from  September onward and ad spending, look at this,

$167 million million. Compare that to Democrats.  The outside spending, look at this. Only $6.8. million. What is that a difference of? It's  nearly a difference of 160 million with an. M. But here's the thing. Republicans have all that  outside spending in Texas, but it's going right up. against the individual candidate spending. So you  see that $160 million advantage or nearly there.

in. And look at this. The Texas Senate candidate  spending. That is the individual candidates. How. much are they spending? Look at James Terico. He  is absolutely crushing. He is absolutely crushing. Kemp Paxton. I mean Kemp Paxton should probably  get on the phone with some of those folks and say, "Hello, I need money." Hello. That's why there's  all that outside spending because James Telerico. $31 million compared to Kemp Paxton. What is  this? It's $352,000. No, that is not a misprint.

He's not even in the millions in terms of the ad  spending. He's in the hundreds of thousands. So, James Telerico has a $31 million advantage. And  the question is, if in fact Texas does turn blue, what does that mean? outside spending versus  candidate spending. It means that candidate. spending overtakes outside spending. And that  means so much for the electoral map because the. trends that we're seeing in Texas, well, they  go nationwide. They go nationwide because look.

at nationwide. Okay, national spending leader  from September onward in candidate spending. Look at this. Democrats have the advantage. $49  million are there and about. But look at the. outside spending. Again, these are just they're  outside. They're outside my eyeballs. I mean, literally jumping off the page. They have  an advantage of $378 million. This is the. key Republican advantage. But if Democrats can  beat it back in Texas, then they're likely to. do so nationwide. Of course, that isn't the only  lesson. If Texas does in fact turn blue, you know,

one of the things that we've been talking about so  much when I talk with my friends, and yes, I have. a very nerdy group of friends, is can we actually  trust the polls? Right? Because back in 2024, Donald Trump vastly outperformed his polls, right?  At least the polls that were on from September, right? September turned to October. And you  know what? Right now, what we see is look, if the 2026 Senate map actually matches  the polling, Democrats, hey, hey, hey,

hey, we're doing really well. We're calling up  all of our friends who are saying, "Yes, yes, we've done it." Because Democrats would be in the  capird seat, 53 seats to Republicans 47. They'd. flip Ohio. They'd flip North Carolina. They'd flip  Iowa. They'd flip Alaska. And yes, they would turn. Texas blue. So if Texas turns blue, if Texas does  in fact turn blue, what would that mean about the. polling misses? Well, it would mean that maybe  they're not going to happen because take a look.

here. In 2024, GOP outperformed their SE September  polls by in the major statewide races. In Iowa, it was nine. In Texas, it was seven. It was seven.  In Ohio, it was six. In Michigan, it was 1 2 3 4. 5. Yes, I can count to five, baby. We did it. We  did it. And if we in fact do have these same exact. overperformances from Republicans, well, this  5347, what does that turn into? Well, it turns.

into boom 5149 Republicans because Michigan that  would go from blue to red. How about Texas? That. would go from blue to red. Iowa the same. Ohio  the same. So, what happens in Texas could very. well tell us what is going on nationwide. Because  if Texas turns blue, it means that all of this red. right here, well, maybe the polls would actually  indicate that they would turn blue. But of course,

if Texas turns blue, that's not the only thing  that it would tell us, right? So, it would tell. us a lot about the Republican coalition because  if Texas turns blue, it would indicate that. MAGA can't win without non-white voters, without  voters of color. Because one of the key shifts, one of the key shifts that we saw in 2024, the  reason why Donald Trump won a second term was.

because of non-white voters. Look at this. From  2020 to 2024, the presidential margin, the shift. among white voters. Look at this. Democrats  actually gained a point. They actually did a. point better among white voters. But what happened  among non-white voters? Look at that. Republicans. gained 14 points. This is why Donald Trump won  a second term. It was non-white voters. It was. non-white voters. But guess what's happening in  2026? Non-white v voters are turning Donald Trump.

and the Republican voters upside down, inside  out in the great state of Texas. You can see it. here. Look at this. Okay. Margin with non-white  voters in Texas. In 2024, Kla Harris won them by. 11 points. She won them by 11 points. Look right  now. Look right now in the latest polling data. that we have. James Taler Rico is winning among  voters of color, non-white voters by 39 points. What is that? My mathematics say that that is a  28 point shift. Is a 28 point shift. If in fact.

James Terico is able to win in Texas, what would  this indicate for the rest of the electoral map? Because when we look at non-white voters, right,  we look at non-white voters, we see that the Sarah. citizens, look at this, in Texas, they're 51%.  If James Terico wins in Texas, they're likely to. also win in you can kiss a goodbye. Georgia  Senate, see you later. It is a huge a huge. caution sign. Wet floor you might slip on the way  out if you're a Republican running for the United.

States Senate in the South. And you can see that  other states. Look at this. North Carolina, 34%. of the citizen population is non-white. How about  in South Carolina, it's 32% of the population. Oh, my friend Gordon wants to pass me a note. We'll  take a look at this in a second. Sh. You're going. to have to stay tuned. So, North Carolina,  Georgia probably off the board in addition to. Texas. And then I think Democrats could actually  be competitive in South Carolina. And of course,

South Carolina hasn't elected a Democrat to  the United States Senate since 1998 when Fritz. Hollands, who had a fantastic Charleston accent,  won re-election. He always won re-election in. South Carolina. Let's take a look. Ah, yes. My  dear friend Gordon wants to point out that, of. course, in Texas, there's a lot more going on than  just non-white voters. How about this? How about. this? Texas evangelical voters. Texas evangelical  voters. If you can't read it, Trump won him by 73. points back in 2024. Greg Abbott, who's running  for the governorship of Texas, is leading him by.

62 points. How about white evangelicals? Kemp  Paxton, though, only winning him by, get this, only winning them by 48 points. Only winning  him by 48 points compared to Abbott's 62 points. In other words, maybe scandals do matter. Maybe,  maybe, maybe. It turns out that white evangelicals. do not want candidates who in fact leave their  wives. He's winning, but they don't even like him.

They don't even like him. His favorability rating  is only plus 14 with white evangelicals. So, it turns out that scandals may actually matter.  And this is something we've seen in the polling. data going forward. Maybe Republicans aren't  going to be nominating candidates who are scandal. plague. Who are scandal plague going forward.  Now, I will say this. This has definitely taken a. little bit of energy out of me. So, it's time for  drink. I don't know what the heck this is. Let's. try it. H interesting. Not sure I necessarily like  it, but whatever. It's a bubbly drink. It's fine.

by me. It keeps me hydrated. But what else? What  else matters? If in fact, Texas turns blue. Well, you know what? We're not just talking about  20 26. What about going into the future, right? What about going into the future? We  really we really want to take the peel off of. this banana. That's what we really want to do.  If Texas turns blue, the 2028 presidential race, that's pretty good. What does it mean? What  does it mean if Texas turns blue in 2026? Well, you know what? The last time Democrats actually  won a Texas Senate race was back in 1988. The.

last time they won a presidential race was 1976.  Oh my goodness gracious. James Earl Carter was. the last Democrat to carry Texas in a presidential  race. And you know what? Get this. GOP presidents. who would have won without Texas in the last  35 years. This is the easiest counting of all. time. It's just one. It's just one. If you're a  Republican, you really do need to win in Texas.

if you want to be elected president. You really  do need to be What was that, Kate? Who is it? Who is it? It was actually Donald Trump. It was  actually Donald Trump. That was who who did it, but he barely did it. He barely did it. He barely  got over the 270 electoral mark. But basically, if you're a Republican, you need to be able to win  in Texas if you're going to win the presidency. And you know what? That's even more the case  going into the future because take a look here. Texas electoral votes by decade. In n in 1980s, it  was 29. In the 2000s, look at this, 34. In 2022,

that is this decade, 40. The projection for 2032  is 44. Texas is becoming more important. If all of. a sudden if Texas goes blue, if Texas goes blue in  2026, much better chance then that would probably. go blue in 2028, which would be a downright  disaster. A downright disaster for Democrat for. Republicans and California and New York, this is  what this is notes that I get. California and New.

York of course are losing seats. Texas is gaining.  So Texas taking on added importance. Thank you. Gordon for the note. Now, what is reason number  five? Oh, it's my favorite. It's the bonus round. Oh, yeah. We We'll come up with a better theme  than that. If Texas turns blue, what does it mean. going forward? Well, one of the questions, and  we tackled this last week, right? Are Republicans. actually turning against Donald Trump? Well, in  our bonus round, I would say this. If Texas turns.

blue, and that means the United States Senate is  likely to turn blue, it means that Republicans. had a terrible midterm election, right? They  lost control not just of the House but of the. United States Senate as well. And you know when  Donald Trump hit basically his low point his low. point in the last five years when it came to his  popularity rating. It was after the GOP's subpar. 2022 midterms. This is just a Quinnipiac poll  on your screen. Look at this. Lowest opinion of. Trump among voters in seven years. In seven years.  MAGA. The Republican base is all about winning.

When all of a sudden that wonderful clothing that  Donald Trump wins that he struts around in, right? He struts around and I'm a winner. I'm a winner.  When all of a sudden Republicans lose, the idea, the veneer that Donald Trump is a winner, it  disappears. And you can see in the polling data, and it's not just Quinnipiac, take a look here.  Okay, Trump's favor rating with the GOP post the. 2022 midterms. Well, his favorable overall was  66%. Of course, he got about 95%. He got about 95.

or 94% of the vote back in 2024 among Republicans.  So he was significantly lower than that. Way way. down there. And his very favorable rating, his  very favorable rating was 39%. Airgo well less. than a majority of Republicans actually viewed  him very favorably after the Republicans had a. subpar 2022 midterm. Would the same thing  happen after 2026? Look, I don't know the.

answer to that question necessarily, but what  I do know is it would be the best shot so far. for those who are hoping that the GOP actually  breaks away for Trump for it to actually happen.