Enten unpacks TX Senate polls as Paxton loses Bush dynasty's support

Democrats have high hopes. James Telerico will  become the first Democratic senator elected in. the state of Texas since 1988. Republicans are  on track to spend more than $380 million on ads. over the primary and the general election to  defe defend that seat. It's a staggering amount. of money for a state where Republicans have  dominated, as you know, for decades. CNN chief. data analyst Harry Anton was over there doing I  don't know what, but now he's here. I was thinking. about you said 1988. It's 1988 in Harry. We're  not doing that, Harry. You're not making us seem.

older than we are. I mean, you're definitely Sarah  was born only 20 years ago. I'm like 110 at this. point. Look, is there any sign that this enormous  amount of money I mean this is huge. $380 million. Is there any sign that this is starting to move  people towards Republicans? Yeah. Okay. So, hundreds of millions of dollars being spent in  Texas. My goodness gracious. You know, if you.

just gave me like 1/100th that I you would never  see me again. But no, I doubt that. No. Yeah. I I. can't stay away. I'm Liza. I like it too much.  Take a look here. Texas Senate polling. Talico. versus Pax. I mean, just look at this. Look at  this consistent average of the polls that we are. seeing in July at the end of July. Look at that.  It was Taller Rico plus three. August talico plus. three. September. Taler Rico plus three. October.  Terico plus three. I mean, maybe you want to make. the arguments like 3.2 2 versus like 2.7 or 2.8.  But all of this money that is being spent, it is.

basically three yards and a cloud of dust right  now in the great state of Texas where Talerico. holds this within the margin of error. But still  slight advantage that simply puts Sarah Seid. really doesn't seem to be moving at all despite  all of that money that is being spent. Um but we. should mention it's still within the margin. We're  going to trust me, you're going to like the last. slide of error. Stay tuned. Um, but I do love it  when you go back in history and you sort of give.

people an idea of where campaigns were for example  at this point for the Senate years ago. Yeah. If. you just take a look, you know, I think a lot of  people feel like Texas is a little bit of Lucy in. the football, right? And you that last minute, oh,  we're going to win. Texas is going to turn blue. and then the football gets taken out. But this  just looks different. This just looks different. Okay, who is ahead in Texas Senate races? I mean,  just take a look. This is mid-occtober polling in. points. You know, right now what you got is Taller  Rico three points. You go back two years ago, it. was the GOP by four. You go back four, six years  ago, wow, I can't believe 2020 was six years ago.

Is the GOP by seven. And then I think the best  historical comparison was Trump's first midterm, right? Better there was this all this energy  that Democrats thought that they had. But at this. point, Bor was trailing Ted Cruz by about eight  points and that margin was with about three points. at the end of the day. So that was actually an  example in which the Democrats actually outperform. their mid-occtober polls in a state like Texas. So  it's not always the case that the polls actually. underestimate Republicans. Sometimes they  underestimate Democrats. And at this point.

what we're seeing in Texas is extremely unusual.  James Terico is the first Democratic candidate. for Senate to be up this late in the campaign  since, as Sarah said at the beginning, 1988. I. said 1988. Oh, I'm sorry. I I I just said what  I wanted to hear. That's a common problem. Men, it touche. It sure is. Look, how often when you  look back do candidates who are up by something. like three points within the margin of error, how  often do they win? Yeah, how often do they win?

This is what I do think is important. Candidates  who are up by three win more often than not. Okay. But but it's 67% of the time. So that means about  one in three times the candidate who is trailing. at this point by about the margin that Ken Paxton  is go on and win. And if you're a fan of baseball, you know that one in three events happen  very frequently. So at this point, you know, slight slight slight slight little pressure on  the scale in favor of James Terico, but Ken Paxton.

very much in the ball game. Yeah. I mean, look,  Texas has a lot more Republicans Democrats, and. so it'll be turnout, turnout, turnout most likely  that makes a difference here. I I think we'll know. in a few weeks in 12 days. Oh my god. Yeah, that's  happening. Harry Anton, thank you. Appreciate it. Thank you, Sarah. Okay. Does Ken Paxton have a  Bush problem in Texas? I didn't write that. As. he looks to secure every vote he can in a tight  race, he seems to have lost the Bush dynasty. along the way. The brother of President George W.  Bush early voted in Texas this week for Democrat.

James Tel Rico. And then he wrote about it on  social media. Quote, "My vote was motivated by. two things. deep concern about Ken Paxton's record  and genuine admir admiration for the character and. principles I see in James Telico. Now, George W.  Bush's daughter, Barbara, donated $2,500 to a pro. Telerico super PAC. According to campaign finance  records, meantime, the former president seems. to be helping out about every other Republican  running for Senate. He hosted a fundraiser for.

uh GOP Senate candidates with John Cornin last  month and uh Ken Paxton wasn't invited. So, we're bringing in a pro to the group chat. Mark  McKinnon, former adviser to George W. Bush. We've. talked in the past about what the Bush folks are  doing in Texas. But here's the thing. I kind of. thought you all were pushed out of the Republican  party. Like, is there a Republican voter left in. Trump's MAGA party that cares how shrubs are  voting? Not not MAGA voters, but there's a lot.

of other Republicans in Texas. I'm sure there  are. I mean, MAG is a 30%, but there's 60% of. Republic of people who identify as Republicans in  Texas. So, there's 30% of Republicans still there. who consider themselves Bush Republicans. But  are they up for grabs or were they really just. still going to vote? 100% they are, particularly  in this election. Ken Paxton doesn't just have a. Bush problem. He has an everyone problem. Okay,  this I've seen banned candidates and I've seen. corrupt candidates. I've never seen a bad corrupt  candidate like this in my life. And I'll tell you,

I talked to there's not a single Bush Republican  in Texas that I've talked to that's going to vote. for Ken Paxton. Some of them will stay home,  but a lot of them will vote for Ken Paxton. Here's another thing I'll say. The Bush family  is very discreet about this kind of thing. Well, not so discreet. We've known about it every step  of the way this time around. Well, that's what. I'm saying. And that's that's that's a big tell  because I guarantee you that George Bush's brother. and George Bush's daughter would not have done  this without running it by the president first. So the president could have said go ahead but keep  quiet about it because when it goes public Yeah.

So Tel Rico actually in So there's a wink there's  a wink and a nod here. He was able to post a list. of Republicans endorsing him. 20 plus people will  I mean it's a it's a lot of state Republican names. but um he was actually you can go out and uh  campaign on that. Well there's a story today. that said the former executive director of the  party in Texas just came out against Paxton as. well. Okay. Wow, that's a big I mean they're  starting to pile up. You know, the interesting.

thing is if he manages to win this, Texas is  going to have some of the most unlikable senators, US senators in the history. I mean, you know,  you've already got one in Ted Cruz, which is. known to be unlikable. They will show you. Corbin,  you're not adding to this conversation. Meanwhile, Carl Ro has literally come out the for the,  you know, the guy uh running for railroad. commissioner. Like, is there a Republican that  era Republicans like right now? What is going on? Well, let's talk about Governor Greg Abbott. Oh,  interesting. Say more. Yeah. Well, is he doing any.

better? Honestly, I thought that race was close as  well. That race is close. And I think part of part. of the reason that that's close for for Abbott is  you've got all of this money that's pouring into. Texas. Now, here's the here's the other side of  this whole conversation. If Republicans do pull. out a victory in uh the Senate and the governor's  race and hundreds of millions of dollars have been. spent by Democrats trying to push this across  the finish line and they don't win in Texas, any of these races, I think I think again where  Democrat dollars go to die, um you you're going.

to see a lot more of these candidates in other  ruby red states. Go ahead and remember Elon Musk. just poured a bunch of money into the state  as well. Elon Musk is a Texas resident now. That's Here's the problem, Mike. Republicans  have spent $150 million on TV for Kempack. So, they shouldn't had to spend a dime. John Cornin  would have walked into that. Yes. When I did. the when I did the media for the whole country for  President Bush, I when we had got to $100 million,

I went to Carl Ro and said, "Carl, I can't spend  all of this for the whole country. Now they're. spending 150 million." It's a different time.  It's a different time. It was a different time. We're now in the era of a billion dollar. Point  Audi is that they shouldn't have had to spend a. dime in Texas. John Corner would have walked into  that Senate seat. So, it's a cell phone. Trump's. having to go. Oh, he's going to Trump's going his  schedule is showing us how scary. Well, there's. a code that you all use sometimes when you're  talking with me where you say candidate quality, which and I think it comes into play here. The  same way right now Democrats are wrestling with.

was it an overreach to have a candidate like Abdul  Elsad. I think there are some MAGA Republicans. that were like was this an overreach? Was  this the guy at all cost? And that's the. point about that Texas Senate race. James Tyler  Rico is an exceptional candidate. Paxton is one. of the worst candidates ever. And the parallel  is the 2018 race with Ted Cruz and Betto AOR. Cruz was not nearly as bad as Terico, I mean, as  as Paxton. and and Tal Rico's better than Beta.