Enten unpacks MS race: 'The biggest Senate upset' in the last 20 years

Anton is here to drill down on this. just a bit more. Let's talk about. So we're over a week from Election Day. Unbelievable. Yes. What did talk about the course. of how this has evolved. and developed since that day. Yeah. All right. So we'll go into Mississippi, which is the name of the game. at this particular hour. And I will note that Scott Callum's lead. has been widening. It has been widening. You can see it right here. pretty clearly right. where, you know, you come in on Election Day, you see Sidney Heights at the head, and then you see Scott.

Clem taking the lead. And although it's small, you can see. the lead. has been widening over the course. as more and more ballots have in fact, been counted. And I will note that right now. you can see. right up here this lead of 2990, that is a little bit. less than 3000 votes. That is, I'm. from all the research I have done, the biggest lead. that Scott column has had. So Cindy Hyde-Smith is of this opinion. Oh, more ballots will help me. No no no no no. Scott column is right. The additional ballots.

that have been added, his lead has been going up. And I will note that. this margin right here, which although it doesn't seem that big, what is that? That's about 0.3 percentage points. Traditionally speaking, recounts. do not overturn these types of leads. You really want the lead to be. in the let's say, three digit. or even two digit margin, not, say, 3000 votes, which may seem small, but in the land of politics and recount. it is as wide as the Atlantic Ocean. Two factoids. that are fascinating in this.

At one point, when we were together. overnight watching this play out, wasn't he ahead by 28 votes? Something like it was like. it was so wild. It was 28. And then it went up. to, let's say 40. something or something like that. And then it started jumping ahead. And also Harris. talking about recounts Mississippi. I remember. sitting there like three in the morning. I'm flipping through. all of our research books. to find Mississippi's recount law there. They don't have a recount law. Just as a reminder, it's. just one of these. fascinating elements to it.

because recount laws are decided. state by state. Now, anywhere. in Hinds County take us to Hinds County. and tell us what we need to know. about this. It's heavily, heavily, heavily Democratic. I mean, look at this. Look at the margin. that Scott column has this, of course, Jackson, Mississippi. That's within hindsight. Look at this margin. It's an over 60 point margin. It's a 61 point margin. And so you look at this and you go. as the more ballots have been counted. Scott Cologne's lead. has been climbing ever higher. And then you go to a county.

which is in fact. heavily, heavily, heavily Democratic. One of most heavily. Democratic counties in the state. And you just have to ask yourself. if affidavit ballots. have traditionally leaned Democratic. and you're in the most Democratic county. at all of basically of all of them. And in Mississippi, right, one of the most Democratic. How the heck does this work out. for Cindy Hyde-Smith? Well, wait and see. Do we have this county in 24? Just, just I'm just curious. I hadn't actually looked back.

I do have this county in 24, and you could see Kamala Harris won here. by, what, 46 points? And of course, what's so important to note here. is that. Scott has taken a 46 point. margin and has expanded it out. significantly to a little bit. less than 61 percentage points. So you just put it all together. You just see how he is outperforming. across the state. You can see it right here. Let's sort of. we'll we'll drill it down. and we'll show you that. essentially look at this. Look at this. And basically every single county, the one exception being this one county.

in the red counties. and the blue counties. Scott column. has been putting forward an effort. that will, in fact, get the vote goes. the way that I think it's going to go. Of course, we'll have to wait and see. He will be the first Democratic senator. elected from Mississippi since 1982. And another little fact for you kick. Baldwin is I've been looking back. I looked at the very limited data. that we had beforehand, looked at the Cook Political Report. that Scott Gillum has gone after. And this, in my opinion, is probably the biggest Senate upset. based upon the preconceived notions. going in the election.

and at least the last 20 years, fascinates dating. So this morning is going to be it's. critical no matter what. Yes. Whether we get a final call, stand by to stand by. But this is the backdrop. of which we're talking. That's exactly right, a historic candidacy. and looks on the precipice. of a historic upset. Fascinating stuff here. Thank you so much. Thank you. Okay, now, just a little over an hour away. some day. from a trove of votes. being counted in Mississippi. This, of course, is a Senate matchup. that has been watched so closely. since the polls closed on Tuesday.

The nail biter. between the incumbent. Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith. and Democrat Scott Cologne. Right now, there are just under 3000 votes. separating the two candidates, with 98% of the vote counted there. The remaining 2% is really going. to make the difference here. And that could come today in Hinds County. in the next hour. County commissioners are meeting. to make the final call. on those all important. provisional ballots. Once that decision is made, the eligible ballots will be counted. So Hinds County is Democratic stronghold,

so much. so that Scott. Koloane says he thinks his lead over. Hyde-Smith will be, quote, insurmountable. once those results are in. CNN's Annie Grayer is live for us. this morning in Jackson. in Hinds County, as we're waiting for. those election results. So, Annie, talk to us. a little bit more about the timeline. and what will actually be learning. just an hour from now. So, Kate, this is a huge moment. in this Senate race. that we have been following. very, very closely in the building.

behind me in about an hour. County commissioners are going to gather. where first they are going to present. the affidavit ballots, known as provisional ballots, that they have gone. through over the last week. They're going to present, which they are accepting, in which they are going to be rejecting. And this is an opportunity. where we could see. some challenges, though. Democrat Scott. Collum told me last night. he's not expecting any major challenges. to come up. And then from there. we will actually see the counting. where. the county commissioners. are going to be counting. those affidavit ballots.

And they're also going to be counting. the remainder absentee ballots. because folks had until yesterday. to return their absentee ballots. as long as they were postmarked. on Election Day. And this is what we have. been waiting for. Now, the system had been overwhelmed. with affidavit ballots. over the last week. Commissioners were working. around the clock. trying to finish these ballots, and it was really an. unprecedented situation. I talked to a number of folks. who, when they went to vote, they either. weren't listed as an inactive voter. They weren't in the poll book.

There were issues with their ID, and so that that required a lot of people. to have to fill out affidavit ballots. Now, there's questions about actions. from the Missouri. secretary of State of why. there was such an unprecedented number. The secretary of state says that, you know, he defends his action over the last year. to clean up the poll books. and that voter rolls. and then. says that the affidavit ballots are. there is sort of a safety net. to catch anybody. who maybe had some issues. But Democrat. Scott Collum says that. he is confident. that as more ballots come. in, his lead is only going to increase.

Take a listen to what. he told me last night. I think. some of these people that are right, these races need to look at the data. And I think, you know, we're in a position. where it's going to be very clear. that it's time to call it a time. to allow Mississippi to move on, to have representation is going to fight. for the things that matter. And the longer that we delay that, the, you know, the more it impacts their ability. to have a successful transition. So I think we're getting really close. Are you expecting. any challenges tomorrow? I know that the review board meets. and that's when challenges can be made. Are you expecting any of that?

No. I mean, they've come up. with no evidence of anything wrong. They haven't been able. to point to any ballots or any strategy. to how they're going to win. Now, Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, who's been relatively quiet. since Election Day, she's back in D.C., where she's told our team. that she wants to see. every ballot counted. And she is confident. that that that her chances. are still there to win. But she has lawyers. spread out across the state, as does. column in case of any legal challenges.

And we'll be watching very, very closely. It's finally counting. day here in Mississippi. and we will bring you all those updates. All right. And a good. that we still have. you there on the ground. because we need you. That is for sure. Thank you. Joining me now, CNN. senior political analyst and Bloomberg. opinion columnist Ron Brownstein. Ron, good to see you this morning. Harry just said. the biggest upset in 20 years. When you look at this. race in Mississippi, I'm also curious, do you think Scott column was largely. ignored. to make this such a big upset.

on a more national level? Did people miss the signs? Well, first of all, I think. Scott Brown. winning the special election to replace. Ted Kennedy would be comparable. And, in a surprise back in, 2009, 2010. But yes, I mean, you know, part of part. of what happens in these states, much like, the Biden strategy in Georgia. in 2020. is it's staying off the radar. sometimes does help, because it. it prevents the other side. from really pouring in resources.

and activating their voters. But, you know, what happened in. Mississippi is really indicative. of the larger pattern that we saw, in this election. You know, the story of 2026. was not only the depth. but the breadth of Trump's decline. And that's what really drove. these results. You know, not only was his national disapproval. rating at 63%, which was significantly worse. than it was an 18 or Obama in ten Bush, you know, six Clinton, 94. It was he had fallen below 50,

even in red states, in a way that simply was not true. In 2018 and 2018, he was still about 50%. in most of the red states. I went through. You know, the. the voter poll that CNN does covers. a lot more terrain. than the old exit polls. There were 45 states that were polled. He was above 50%, only in five of them. Even in Mississippi, he was a 55% disapproval, and 87% of those disapprove was voted. for column. And that's what we saw. in every competitive state. where Democrats flipped. a Republican health.

Senate seat, a majority of voters. disapproved of Trump, and roughly 85%. or more of them voted for the Democrat. And that was just an undertow. that was too much for Republicans. to survive. almost everywhere where. there was a competitive race.