Enten & panel unpack how this Kansas Senate race is unprecedented

This morning, Toto and Republican certainty,  I have a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore. Brand new CNN out of Kansas shows no clear  leader in the race there, but you can see the. numbers for yourselves there. Adam Handlesman,  the Democrat at 49%, Roger Marshall at 45%, the incumbent Republican. With us now, CNN chief  data analyst, Harry. Harry, let me just put this. simply. Have we ever seen a poll like this out  of Kansas? Uh, not not in my memory. I I mean, look at this. I I I mean this is the best Kansas  Senate poll for Democrats in at least 30 years.

At least 30 years at this point in the campaign.  Yes, there is no clear leader, but 49 is higher. than 45. It is within the margin of error. But  Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the United. States Senate since Babe Ruth literally called  his shot in 1932. That is how long it has been. It has been 94 years and right now Democrats are  in their best polling position that they have been.

in a Senate poll this late in the campaign in at  least 30 years. I I mean it's the ground beneath. me seems to be giving way. That is where we are.  These polls are nuts. All right, you may know. the question I'm going to ask. Why? Why? Because  this is what we've been talking about. Why? Well, part of it is definitely this. I mean, the least  popular Kansas GOP Senate nominee at this point of. campaign this century. It's Roger Marshall. It's  Roger Marshall. 17 points underwater. No wonder.

you get a candidate Adam Hamilton who is uniquely  popular in the state of Kansas. You combine that. with a uniquely unpopular candidate on the  Republican side, the Senator Roger Marshall, and all of a sudden you get a recipe that could  in fact rise up and you get a Democrat potentially. elected from Kansas to the United States  Senate for the first time since 32. Again, the race is close, but the ingredients, they're on  the table. Well, okay, let's talk more about this.

recipe. What if you add a dash of President Trump?  Add a dash of President Trump. Well, that can make. that Democratic dough rise because take a look  here. Okay, GOP presidents net approval ratings. in Kansas around this point in a term. Look who is  the least popular guy in your screen right here. It's Donald John Trump. 15 points underwater in  a state he won by what? 16 points, Johnny B. 15. points underwater. That's a 31 point switcheroo  going in the wrong direction. and it is by far the.

least popular Republican president in Kansas at  this point in a term this century. He's the only. one underwater. He's 15 points less popular than  George W. Bush was at this point in 2006. And of. course, Democrats won not just back the United  States House that year, but the United States. Senate as well. Just to reiterate what you said,  the the election's a few days away. We'll see how. people vote when they show up to the polls. But  what we are seeing now is unlike anything we have. seen in a Kansas election we've covered in our  lifetime. This is exactly right. This is what we.

are seeing across map. You're seeing it in Texas.  You're seeing it in in Kansas as well, which is. historically unusual polling for this century  where the Democrats are doing much better in the. polling than they really have in 30 plus years.  Okay, these are the polls. What do the prediction. markets say? Okay, so you take a look at the  prediction markets. Look, it's a really tight. race. Chance that Hamilton, the Democrat, wins  the Kansas Senate race. You know, a day ago it was. 41%. That number is rising. That number is rising.  It is now 47%. So the real takeaway here is that.

you know what, forget the polls for a second. Look  at the prediction markets as well. You combine the. two of them, Democrats legitimately have their  first chance to win a United States Senate race. in the great state of Kansas in either of our  lifetimes. Harry, thank you very much. Thank you, my friend. President Trump, we've learned,  cancelled his trip to Kansas this weekend to. campaign for Senator Roger Marshall. Apparently,  there was a scheduling issue. He's doing some. teller rallies instead. What does the polling  show there? Yeah. Well, the polling shows a no.

clear leader race. Uh we have Adam Hamilton at  49%, Roger Marshall, the Republican incumbent, 45%. That's within the margin of error. That's  why there's no clear leader, but we do see uh some. similar signs in some of these other states. Look  at how Hamilton is performing with independence. He's winning 60% of independence uh on this ballot  test. He's also winning 12% of Republicans. Again, deep red Kansas. The only way a Democrat could  have a chance is if they're winning a swath of.

Republicans as as Hamilton is doing here in  this poll. Also outrunning the brand of the. Democratic party. 34% favorability for the Dem  Party in Kansas. That would make sense. It's a. deep red state. But Hamilton's favorability is at  41%. So, he's separating himself from the brand. of the party. And maybe I don't know if Donald  Trump's looking at these numbers and thinking, "Hey, I don't know that I want to attach  myself to a potential loss for Marshall. Maybe he's just exhausted from working himself  to the bone on the campaign trail." But yes,

they did say he's going to do a bunch of those  teller rallies. 24 I think 25 stops now in this. in this midterm run so far on the uh Kansas  race. Let's listen to a little bit of what the. incumbent Republican Roger Marshall is saying  on the number one issue, which is the economy. This is one of the best economies I've ever seen  in my lifetime. The yes, gas prices are too high, but the economy itself, there are great jobs,  manufacturing jobs growing all over the state in.

many reasons because of President Trump's policies  as well. Taking a note from the Trump playbook. there, right? I mean, we've seen that messaging  from the White House when it comes to the economy. this idea of essentially saying you're wrong like  voter for feeling this kind of economic anxiety. The economy is actually great. Um that we've seen  other administrations do that too. It it doesn't. work right to tell people that what they're  feeling and what they're seeing in the sense of.

going to fill up the tank or going to the grocery  store that that actually doesn't line up right. Um. uh here you see you see Roger Marshall taking  that sort of path rather than trying to meet. people where they're at. This race is fascinating  too when you talk about yes the economic you know. frustration hang over the race but also the  issues that are so specific to the candidate. here. We're coming off a year where Trump's bill  cut the social safety net. And then you have a. candidate that also has faced accusations of of  of suing uh different people that were behind on.

their health care payments at time going to court  to try and get severe punishment his own as well. Like coming at a time where people are worried  about their own health insurance payments as. well. I mean that that is going to fment to  a really tough situation for the incumbent. And I think to sum it up, it's it's this is these  polls show us how much candidates matter. Yes. Um. on on both sides of the aisle and it's, you know,  got some lot of pros and a lot of cons. However,

David, you like to point this out a lot and  our new poll gives us some numbers to to back. up the warnings that these are all very close  races and they are in for the most part very. Republican territory. For example, the question  of persuadable voters. Where are they? Who are. they? Um, Kansas, the persuadable voters, 60%  are Republicans or lean Republican. In Texas,

67% of persuadable voters are Republican or lean  Republican, which David tells us that if they are. um persuaded enough to go with their DNA, Yeah.  then these will not break for the Democrats. you'll see it snap to a completely different uh  which is an important thing to keep in mind. It. is and and I would just note so I'm so glad you  showed the partisan breakdown of that persuadable. universe. It's also not an insignificant chunk of  the of the overall population. In Texas and Kansas.

in our polls, it's like 13 or 14% still say they  can change up change their mind. That's not an. insignificant chunk. Yes, they are mainly because  they are also red states Republican leaning voters. who we've watched elections for could easily  in this time of polarization put on their rep. I'm not suggesting this is a fatal complement  but could put on the Republican jersey and if. they do you know that really where all the money  is being spent one of the dynamics this election.

year is that Democrats are competing in deep  red states hoping to flip several Republican. held seats and many of the candidates trying to  do so are men and Women of the Cloth connecting. with voters on faith. They marched. The least  we can do is walk. These candidates are going. from the pulpit to politics. I pastor a church of  24,000 members. I was a parish pastor. It's a 2026. trend for Democrats. You may know me as a state  representative, but I'm also a chaplain. At least.

eight Democratic Senate and House candidates  around the country are ordained ministers or. seminarians like Texas Senate candidate James  Telerico. When I take on the politicians who are. serving themselves and not the people, I am doing  it on biblical grounds. The raw volume I haven't. seen in my career. Jack Jenkins is a reporter  for Religion News Service and says the number.

of clergy running as Democrats is astounding.  What is your sense of the why? There does seem to. be something that resonates when a candidate is a  vocal person of faith. It's notable where the most. uh hotly contested versions of these races are.  Right. We're seeing Reverend Adam Hamilton run. in Kansas. I mean, they haven't had a Democratic  senator um since the 1930s. I looked at what was. happening in Washington. I thought, "This is not  what I've been preaching for the last 38 years. There is an indecency in Washington." Hello  there. How are you? Adam Hamilton is the most.

high-profile pastor running on the Democratic  ticket. His United Methodist Church of the. Resurrection has more than 20,000 congregants  and nine locations. They are making it harder. for Republicans to cast Democrats as anti-religion  or anti-Christian. James Terico in Texas. We are. going to shock the nation, shock the world when  we beat the billionaires and take back Texas.

Democrats are hoping James Talerico can deliver  the first Senate victory in the Lonear State. since 1988. Terico is in the process of becoming  an ordained pastor. His stump speech often sounds. sermon. In a world obsessed with power and  wealth and status, Jesus is saying that real. greatness is serving others. His faith is creating  a permission structure for crossover voters. David. French writes about politics and religion for his  column in the New York Times. He recently traveled.

to Texas to see if Terico, leaning into his faith,  is connecting with voters who wouldn't normally. consider a Democrat. He's got to give people a  reason to vote for him. And person after person. I talked to use some variation of the frame of  the phrase permission structure. In other words, by very intentionally reaching out to people  of faith, by very intentionally highlighting. his faith, and by very intentionally leading  with a decency in contrast to the corruption.

of the Paxton and the name calling of the Paxton  campaign, he's trying to create a contrast that. says, look, if you like Christian values, like  kindness and humility, this is the campaign for. you. To be sure, many Democratic candidates  who are clergy say they are running because. of their faith. Ordained minister Chris Jones is  a Democratic congressional candidate in Arkansas. He told me his faith played into his decision  to run. But humanity is hurting because of all.

the division. And so those of us that are of the  cloth, those of us that are ordained ministers are. saying this is another way that we can step  up. But particularly among black ministers, it has long been a tradition that black ministers  have stepped up in leadership roles, also in. politics. Democrats with religious credentials  is not a new phenomenon. Missouri Representative. Emanuel Clever, a minister, has served in Congress  for 20 years. Georgia Senator Raphael Waro,

pastor at the famous Ebenezer Baptist Church in  Atlanta, was elected in 2021. Nobody knows the. trouble I've seen. We've seen the Democratic  Party. It's a learning organism. Sometimes a. slowly learning organism, but it is learned that  it has to lean into the people and the figures in. the party who are people of faith. And I think  one of the per first people to show that way. or to blaze that trail was Raphael Waro. 82% of  evangelicals voted for Donald Trump. Kla Harris.

won everybody else 58 to 40. So that will tell  you how much the evangelical vote matters. So the. Democrats chipping away at that 8217 margin should  be a priority. Even if Democrats are not going. to win the majority of evangelical voters, they  still see an opportunity to try and reach other. Christian voters like mainline Protestants who  make up at least 11% of adults in the US. They've.

often kind of been a swing vote in past elections.  Um, we've seen uh instances where white mainliners. in particular have kind of waffled one direction  or another in terms of who's in the pews. It is. not enough in this highly polarized time to just  be upset at your own side. As we know, there's got. to be a reason for you to cross the divide. And  that's what many of these Democrats are trying. to create is a reason to cross the divide.  America is still a really religious country.