Enten on Talarico's 'historically good' TX lead 1 day before midterms

With us now is CNN chief data analyst Harry.  How good is seven points for a Democrat running. for Senate in Texas? It's historically good. It's  historically good. My goodness gracious. You know, there's all this talk all this time. People say  to me, "Oh, people have been talking about Texas. going blue for years and it didn't happen."  Well, we've never had polling like this. And. that's why I think if the Democrats can't do it  this year, I'm not sure they're going to do it. anytime in the near future. This seven-point lead  for James Telerico that you mentioned, John EP, that is the best Democratic Senate poll this  late in a campaign since 1988 when of course.

Lloyd Benson won re-election and also of course  there's running for VP though that wasn't nearly. as successful. Not just the polling though for  Terico and Texas, is it? No, it is not just the. seven-point lead. This just seems to be part of  a complete picture in which James Terico has some. has ability a potential to do something historic.  I mean, just look at the fundraising. Look at the. fundraising. The biggest Senate fundraiser ever  through this point of campaign. James Howard,

look at this. 146 million. I feel like  breaking out in my Dr. Evil impression. here. He is just raising a ton of money. There is  a ton of energy behind him and when I say ever, it's obviously this year and then any year. I  I mean it's just mindboggling. It's eyepopping. the types of numbers that James Telerico is  putting up. That's what ever means. It means. always always. You know, this I should point  out, of course, is I wasn't the best English.

student. I was more of a polyai history.  Okay. When we talk about key voter groups, another reason that James Tal Rico might feel good  this morning is what? Yeah. What is it? You know, one of the great strengths that Donald Trump had  back in 2024 was putting up historic numbers for. a Republican in Texas when it comes to the  presidential vote. And you can just see that. all of those gains that Donald Trump made  have been washed away in the polling. Now,

this to me is key. I'm not looking and comparing  to the exit poll. I'm comparing to the final New. York Times poll. So, this is an apple to apples  comparison here. And take a look here. You know, back in 2024 in Texas, the final New York Times  poll had Kla Harris up by six among Hispanic. voters, Latino voters. Look at where James  Talerico is now. Hello. Up 38 points. That is. a 32 point swing in James Torico's direction. Up  like a rocket. And this to me, if James Terico is. able to pull it off, it is because he will finally  put together the magic formula of winning white,

well-educated voters in the suburbs of  Houston, Dallas, Austin, etc. combine it. with good strength among Latino voters and that's  a winning formula for Democrats in Texas. Yeah, he will need this. I know it looks like a lot  there, but this is a number he will need. Correct. If he wants to win this for the first time for  Democrats in almost, you know, since 1988. When. you talk about excitement, you talk about turnout.  Maybe that's part of the recipe for James Terrio, turning out voters who don't normally show up. A  very high turnout. That's what excitement means.

What are the prediction markets saying? Yeah, I  think this is so key. You know, take a look at. the couch prediction market. chance that turnout  in the Texas Senate election is above 10 million, 96%. I should talk should mention that the midterm  record for turnout in the Texas Senate race is 8.4. million. This is way way way above what we have  normally experienced if in fact the prediction. markets are right. And so a lot of enthusiasm,  really good polling, and a lot of money raised. and Latinos shifting back to the left again.  We'll see what happens tomorrow. We'll see what.

happens tomorrow. But this to me is the recipe for  success if you're a Democrat in Texas. There are. 7.7 million votes that have already been cast  during the early voting period here in Texas. And you can rest assured that there will be a  lot of people watching very closely as soon as. those polls close around 900 p. p.m. Eastern time  uh tomorrow morning here in this state. Uh that. they will be watching very closely to see uh what  is going to what to make of it because you have.

uh Republican Senator Ted Cruz warning that if  it was just based on the early voting uh total. that Republicans all statewide across the state  would lose their elections. And that's why you're. seeing Republicans really anxious about what kind  of Republican voter turnout is going to show up. tomorrow here uh in in the state. We've been going  to a number of campaign events over the last few. days uh James Terico and Ken Paxton to kind of  get a sense from voters about what they think.

of these candidates. Here's a little sampling of  what we've heard so far. I don't understand why. Paxton is running. I I think his his record shows  speaks for itself. Um if it was any one of us, we would probably be in jail a long time ago.  And I just think at this particular point, um it's just crazy to even have him on the ballot.  The controversy, the kind of the scandals that. have kind of plagued him. Has that ever turned you  off on him? Uh you know, yeah, it gives me pause,

but you know, we're, you know, that's his personal  life. He fights for Texas, and that's what we. want. We want Texas to stay red. We want Texas  to be safe. We want our kids to be safe. So, that's mainly what I'm uh voting for. And you can  look past the rest. I can look past the rest. Yes, I can. So, John, you know, the candidates  campaigning intensely here on the last day. You have uh Ken Paxton who will be in Houston  in the Dallas area, ending up back here uh in.

his home county in the Dallas suburbs, and James  Talerico will end up today uh back in Austin where. both candidates prepare for election day tomorrow.  This has been an astronomically expensive race. The the Republican side on the Paxton side has  spent around $270 million and adds much of that. uh funded by Elon Musk. And then James Tarico has  spent about 135 million or so. So uh definitely. one of the most expensive races this cycle uh in  in the country. John, and people will be watching. this so closely tomorrow night as these returns  come in. Ed Landera in Dallas. Thanks so much,

Jeeoff. It just looks fantastic there. Um, this is  going to be the place where all eyes are. What are. you hearing from your sources there on the ground  about how people are feeling just before the polls. effectively open and close tomorrow? Well, Danny,  you talked about those 50 million Americans who. have voted early here in Texas. 7.8 million uh  Texans have voted as of early voting on Friday. That is over now. So, it's all now about election  day uh turnout. And talking to strategists in both.

sides, they believe um no more than three million  people will vote on election day. It may be less. than that, but it's the election day turnout  that is so central to this. Republicans know. that they have to get their voters to the polls  tomorrow, but that is what Republicans often. do. They vote on election day, but Democrats I  talked to are also a bit concerned. Do we have. enough voters we can still find to get to come to  the polls tomorrow? But I'm told that there are. about 300,000 or so according to modeling voters,  Democrats who voted in this primary in this Senate.

primary that have not yet voted. So look, there's  enough uh for both sides. But when you hear the. the closing messages here between Democrat James  Talerico and Republican Ken Paxton, it basically. can be boiled down to this. Ken Paxton is saying  that Terico is too liberal for Texas. Terico, he says Paxton is too corrupt and it's costing you  and the economy. Let's listen to a sample. Texas. has never been this close to slipping away. We've  never been this close to losing everything that we.

hold dear. Our jobs, our livelihoods, our way of  life. If Texas falls, we don't have another Texas. to move to. This election is a battle between the  powers that be and the powers that ought to be. The powers that be have chosen their candidate.  They have already bought and paid for Ken Paxton.

So clearly the final uh closing arguments there,  those were in dueling rallies last evening in San. Antonio. But look uh there is enthusiasm like we  have never seen on the Democratic side here in. Texas. More so than back in 2018, the last time  that Beto Aorica tried to run against Ted Cruz. and was very close in that. But even Ted Cruz,  the Republican senator, uh sounding the alarm, he said that it's exceedingly close, too close.  and Republicans need to pay closer attention to. this. So, that is the name of the game tomorrow on  election day. Do Republicans get enough of their.

voters to the polls? Uh, we shall see. But this  is at the red-hot center of the midterm election, a fight for the control of the Senate  right here in Texas, Dann. All right, Jeff, thank you so much. Appreciate it. And I'm joined  by a terrific group of reporters here. And David. Challion, it always makes me laugh when you're  saying something before the show or, you know, separately privately that we hear from Jeff Zelony  on TV because that happens a lot. And what he said. was, "Are there enough Democrats?" Yeah. I mean,  Jeff and I were talking about this last night,

so it's not totally fair. Where's my bubble?  I'm so sorry, but it's But it's true. It's. a good question. Yeah. But let's just talk big  picture. Here we are. Um, you know, in 12 hours, the official election day will start. um what's  your sense of how things are going and how. things really feel behind the scenes despite the  public polling? Yeah, I mean I think the biggest. question, you know, when we get to this point  in the election, Dana, I I tend to just try to.

remind us all or at least in my head like what is  this election fundamentally about? And so to me, you know, that really hasn't changed for much  of this year. So despite all the ups and downs. and all the individual races or all the different  polls, fundamentally this is a midterm election. that is going to be a referendum on Donald  Trump. We know he's at his most unpopular he's. ever been. And we know that issue number one far  and away from everything else is the economy and. the economic anxiety people are feeling in their  lives. All of that is a potentially toxic brew. for Republicans. Which is why the question that  hangs over the election is are we about to see a.

blue wave come ashore here? The thing that still  remains out there is the battlefield is on such. deep Republican turf. Is that just the political  DNA of the map sufficient enough to withstand what. could be a blue wave? And that is the question  that'll be answered tomorrow night when we see the. votes come in. And Casey, just on the point of the  president's approval or disapproval, right? I just. want to show that part of this New York Times poll  that came out last night. Ohio 57% disapproval.

Kansas 56% disapproval, Alaska 55%, Iowa 55%,  Texas 55%. These are all states that two years. ago the president won by double digits and in some  cases like Kansas, healthy double digits. Well, and this shows you how the president's policies  have impacted specifically the American heartland, right? Those states are places that have just  been uniquely affected in many ways by the.

tariffs and by the implications of the war with  Iran that has driven fuel prices so high. I mean, it has hurt farmers in rural America in places  that were absolutely proTrump for the longest. time. And you know, you've seen when Jeff  has gone out and talked to those people, for example, or John King for us, you  hear that directly from them. And I do. think this is the big question. Uh David is of  course, you're always our grown-up in the room, right? telling telling the rest of us, you  know, keep in mind the following things. Uh,

but there does seem to be this big question about  how big this wave is going to be. And Democrats, of course, badly burned in recent election  cycles. Let's remember that Hillary Clinton. was going to be president in 2016, right? The  original kind of start of all of this. And so, I find that when I'm talking to my sources, they  are very reluctant to predict that. But I think. it's worth noting that if it does materialize  because of the nature of the map, you could see. a real generational shift in some of these places.  I mean, if we get Democratic governors in Iowa,

Ohio, and Georgia, which is all possible, right?  You're going to create a bench for the Democratic. party in states that has that that have not  recently voted for Democrats at a time when we. are heading into potentially redistricting and of  course the presidential race. That is not nothing.