Did the economy break Trump? Enten unpacks the numbers

New rough numbers on inflation. The biggest  jump in wholesale inflation in four years. It. follows consumer prices yesterday much hotter  than expected and all spells trouble for the. president on the economy where his numbers have  been sagging. With us now CNN chief data analyst. Harry And we talk about this, but it really  is the most important trend in this campaign. What are you seeing? It's backbreaking. It's  backbreaking for Trump and Republicans. I mean, just look at these numbers. Trump's net approval  rating on the economy. You know, you look at a.

retrospective approval rating according to New  York Times back in 2020 2024. Look at this. He. was 34 31 points on the positive. Look at it now.  26 points in the negative. What is that? That's a. 57 point shift away from the president of United  States. You think that's bad? How about let's. go into the Hudson River? No, we're going to the  Harlem River. Look at this. Plus 38 points among. independents. And now minus 38 points. That is  a shift of 76 points away from the president of.

the United States to quote Fran targeted talking  about Jim Marshall. You're going the wrong way. You're going the wrong way. Deep underwater now.  Yeah, this was a huge positive. Now it is a huge. negative for the president. Where does he rank  historically? Is there any comparison that maybe. should make him nervous? Oh, I think he should  be incredibly nervous and the Republican party. should be incredibly nervous because we're  talking about 26, right? Negative 26. Well, let's take a look at term two presidents right  at this point in term number two. Their economic.

net approval ratings. You see Trump here minus  26 points. The only one who's really close at. all is George W. Bush back in 2006. He was 23  points underwater. But Donald Trump takes the. cake in terms of being the least liked when it  comes to the economy. The only one that's close, Bush. And of course, his party lost the House and  the Senate. He is doubly as unpopular as Obama. Way different than Bill Clinton who was plus 50.  And then of course Ronald Reagan's party in ' 86. who lost the Senate. Reagan was on the plus  side of the ledger and now Trump is 26 points. underwater. This forecast very very bad things  for Republicans in the midterm elections. I mean.

voters continue to tell us that the economy  and price is the number one issue. Who do. they think which party do they think would do a  better job? Which party you think will keep you. prosperous? All right, this is the question.  This is the question. Party trust to keep. the US prosperous. Look at this. Democrats with a  14-point lead. I went into the into the Delorean, went into the time machine. Anytime that Democrats  hold a double-digit advantage on this question, the party trusted to keep the US prosperous.  Each time they won not just the US House,

but the US Senate as well in that election. The  Fed's got a big decision over the next few weeks. based on some of these inflation numbers. What are  the prediction markets saying they'll do? Yeah, they're saying hike those interest rates.  Look at this. In December, 78% chance. Now, a month ago, what were we talking about?  Just a 25% chance. And that is something. I know that Donald Trump really doesn't want to  hear. This is December. By the end of the year, there are new questions about whether it will  be done within the next It could be. I mean, we'll see. We'll see. Exactly. Arian, thank you  very much. A lot of news this morning. Wholesale.

inflation has now surged to its highest level in  more than four years. Data on consumer prices also. came in much hotter than expected. Yet, President  Trump has been making several false claims about. inflation as the midterms approach. 1.7 inflation  in the last three months. Think of that. 1.7. He had real inflation. He had real inflation  of 19%. 19%. We inherited the worst inflation.

in history. Think of it. And now the last three  months we have 1.7. We have it down to what? He. had 19% his real numbers. 19%. All right, let's  get right to CNN fact checker and chief Daniel. Dale. Daniel, great to see you. 1.7 inflation.  I haven't seen that in the government reports. that have been coming out. John, the president's  numbers do not make any sense. We have not had.

anywhere close to 1.7 inflation in the last 3  months. We had 3.4% in July, 3.4% in August, up to 3.7% in September. Now, as for where he  got the quote unquote 19% for Biden, I do not. know. He didn't explain. The White House wouldn't  explain when I repeatedly asked, but I do have a. theory. In 2022, uh in a speech, Trump read from  a script when he noted that Biden had uh 9.1% peak. inflation in June of that year, but then he said,  "It's not that. I believe it's double that." So, if you double 9.1, you get pretty close to 19.  Voila. Of course, you can't do that. You can't.

double economic numbers because you feel like it.  So Biden era inflation did peak at 9.1% uh June. 2022, but then it fell sharply over the remaining  two and a half years of Biden's term all the way. down to 3.0% in January 2025, the month Trump  returned to office. Now I again have to emphasize. I can't be certain what Trump was even referring  to with this quote unquote 1.7 this quote unquote. 19. The White House wouldn't give me any answers.  So on CNN.com I wrote an article walking people.

through the other possibilities as well. Like  maybe he was talking about cumulative inflation. Maybe he was talking about core inflation. But the  bottom line is this. No matter what he was talking. about, whether it was those year-over-year rates  we talked about at the top here, core inflation, cumulative inflation, none of it makes sense. All  of it is inaccurate. John, inflation is not at. 1.7%, it was not at 19%. It just wasn't. Neither  of those things are in any way true. And Daniel, one of the things that the president said in that  clip we played, and then often we get Republicans.

who come on this show and say it, is the president  inherited the the worst inflation in history, right? Which is actually inaccurate on a couple  fronts there. But go ahead. You just cited the. number where inflation was when the president took  office. Again, it was 3.0% in the month that Trump. took over. It was 2.9% in President Biden's  last full month. There is no doubt there was. significant inflation under Joe Biden. The 9.1%  rate in June 2022 was the highest in 40 years.

But even that 9.1% 40-year peak was nowhere close  to the all-time high. The all-time high is 23.7%. in 1920. People might say that's too long ago to  even talk about. Well, it was 14.8% in 1980 under. President Jimmy Carter. And sometimes people say,  John, well, maybe he was talking about cumulative. inflation, the total inflation from beginning to  end of Biden's presidency. Even that was nowhere. close to a record. It was less than half of  cumulative inflation under President Jimmy. Carter. So, how however you slice that claim  either simply was not the worst inflation of.

all time that Trump inherited. And look, inflation  was lower when President Trump took office than. it is now. That that's just that's just government  data. It doesn't take much to look at that. You've. also found the president is fudging the numbers  on inflation in other ways, too. Yeah. It's been. a lying spree about inflation all midterms. He's  basically trying to create an alternative reality. that's much rosier than than the actual reality.  So, uh he said things like we've already stopped. the inflation while of course it continues indeed  accelerating. Uh he said that all your prices are.

falling fast. Well, the vast majority of prices  continue to increase. He's even said that prices. are at a lower level than when he took over. Uh  that is not even close to true. Average consumer. prices according to the CPI are 5.4% higher. And  as you said, even the inflation rate is higher. than when he took over. 3.7 3.4 3.4 all higher of  course than three. It hasn't been as low as three. since the Iran war started in March. So none of  these claims that President Trump is telling about. inflation are true. Judging by the polls, John, I  don't think people are buying it. I think people.

can debunk these claims with their own eyes, but  the president keeps telling them nonetheless. People know how they feel about prices right now.  Daniel Dale, thank you so much for being with us. Wholesale inflation soared last month to its  highest level in more than four years. According. to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the producer  price index is up 1.3% from September and more. than 6% from a year ago. Reports of relentlessly  rising prices come less than 3 weeks before the. midterm elections with affordability expected  to be issue number one for American voters.