Dems' road to 2028, truly blue TX, Trump's redistrict recoil & more | Enten roundup

The talk is how much of a mandate is this? Give us a sense numerically. Yeah. You know, remember back in 2024. Remember there was this idea. Trump has a mandate. and then some Democrats said, no, you know, his popular vote. win wasn't that big. This is a mandate folks. This is a mandate. This is a huge mandate. It is both wide and it is deep. Shift from 2024 to 2026. House states. that shifted to the Democrats. All 50. All 50 shifted to the Democrats.

And in your average state, look at that. Democrats up. like a rocket, up. 14 points compared to the 2024 baseline. It is wide and it is deep. This is a man who got some sleep. for the first time in like four days. right now. I will say that in terms of how much. the Democrats won the House lead overall, if you aggregate all the House. vote, yeah. Let's put it into. a historical perspective, because it is why it is deep. And you can go long, you can go long. And the historical perspective,

look at this. The current U.S. House vote national. lead for Democrats. in the popular House vote. Right now it is 12 points. It is 12 points. I bet it's going to go north of there. Up, up and away. We are talking about. what could be the largest Democrat. or Republican lead or win in the U.S. House of Representatives. nationwide for the popular vote in 50. years since 1976. Bicentennial time baby. Yeah. This is a. this is the generic ballot.

here, in a way. And this is just as big. as we saw in. any of the polling. going any bigger than that right now. Okay. So people are thinking, well, what might this mean. for the presidential election. Yeah. Okay. Another way to put this into. some perspective, right, is look at the electoral map. Look at the electoral map. And let's just say, okay, lead the House. vote in states containing look at this. Democrats 399 electoral votes. The GOP leads in only states. containing 139 electoral votes.

When it comes to the House. Well, we haven't seen numbers like this. since the 1900 and 80s. This was huge, and Democrats. absolutely have to be loving this as, of course, now we put the 2026. election in the rearview mirror. and we head into 2020. I mean, if there were any way. for Democrats to harness this, this, oh my gosh, a blowout for them in 2028. So what are the prediction markets. saying about their chances. Yeah, they can harness that. It's like nuclear fusion right there. After that they want it. And we look ahead to 2028.

And look at this JB off on the side. just left. We're a little loony here. after the long wait. chance that Democrats. win the presidency in 2028. According to the cash prediction markets. Look at that. It was 60% on Monday. Now it's two and 366% chance. Look, it's two years away. But Democrats really have to. like what they saw on Tuesday. I've spent more time with you. the last four days. than anyone else on earth, including all my family members combined. So thank you very much, Harriet. And now we come even closer together. This is a nice, reckless.

Let's just start with. what we've called so far. Right? 253 for the Democrats. Only 156. Are the Republicans. already a net gain pickup of 40 seats. for the Democrats? Now, you spoke about the fact. that we called some races today. Let's talk about those races. that we call today. And look at this. Look at this. You can come in on here and call races. in North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Arizona. I want to go into North Carolina. here for a split second, because this was a state. that Republicans redistrict to pick up.

seats from the Democrats. Yeah. Did not work. I mean, my goodness gracious, look at this. Look at this. I didn't even know who these Democrat. were from, for goodness sake. Look at this. Here's a district they redistricted. The Democrat wins there. Let's go here. How about right down here? Addison McDowell, an incumbent loses in this district. We can go here. How about this one? Tim Moore? I guess I never even heard. of these Democrats before this election. Before all of a sudden. election night, we were looking at them.

Now, more than that, let's sort of zone out on the map here. and let's just sort of. get an understanding. of what we are really dealing with. in this election. Okay. So we're going to go in. terms of the flip so far. And this to me really just does. tell the story. There are a few Republican districts. that flip, but the Democratic districts that flip. just a geographic diversity. of we're talking from the northeast, New York, Pennsylvania. down to the southeast, right, Virginia, North Carolina. You go to the Midwest, it's Michigan. It's Iowa, it's Texas, it's Colorado,

it's Nevada, it's California, it's Montana, for goodness sake. And you, of course, mentioned, Erin, that so far. Obviously, we have only called. 253 states. It can go even bigger than that. It can go even bigger than that. Because I want you to look at the ahead. column here. Look at this. Democrats currently. leading in 261 districts. I think they're going to probably end up. right around the 260 mark, which, of course. would be a tremendous net gain. well into the 40s at this point, which would mark the biggest gain.

since Watergate, as you were pointing out. And more than that, what I want to note. is I'm going to bring out the pen here. right now. in the national popular. vote for the US House. Democrats lead by get this 12 points, 12 points. At this point, I think that number. is going to go higher, probably closer to let's say 14 points. And that would mark. the biggest popular vote. win for Democrats since the bicentennial. 50 years ago. This is 1876, 1976. I mean, it is incredible.

because I'm just thinking back. to the eve of the election. when the most optimistic forecasters. were saying somewhere. between 230 and 240, and if Democrats get a miracle, 240 yeah. And you're. now saying that somewhere around. 260 is within reach. This is absolutely within reach. This was a wave. because it was wide across the map, and it was deep in terms of the trend. in which we see Republican. people who voted for Republicans. just two years ago. flipping across the map, voting for Democrats. Absolutely.

We still have more votes to count. in the House of Representatives. But even at this hour, I can tell you. that the most House. votes ever in a midterm. now belong to the Democrats. They're going to get at least 62 million. At least 62 million. people voted for Democrats. nationwide in the House, the most ever. And what was that. supercharged by Caitlin? It was by people. who got off the sidelines. who normally don't vote. in midterm elections. Take a look at this one. Okay. First time. midterm voters your House vote.

Look at this. Democrats basically. doubling up on the Republicans. a 2 to 1 margin 65 to 33%. And I will note, Caitlin, what a difference from a midterm ago. when Republicans actually won. first time midterm voters. Okay. So I mean, looking at that. and something a stat. that the white House touted. that Republicans touted before. on Texas itself, Democrats. didn't just win the Senate race. They didn't just win the governor's race. They want everything.

I mean, Ted. Cruz said, you know, it's hard to say, but he is the only. Republican elected statewide in Texas. who who would have ever thought. you'd see the day in the 21st century? You know, your producers asked me. if I could potentially do this. And the truth is, I wanted to fit all of them on a screen. and I couldn't actually do it. So what we literally did was. I said it was too big to fit. And you can see it on your screen. A U.S. Senate race, governor, lieutenant. governor, attorney general, Comptroller,

control of the state House, four seats. on the Texas Supreme Court, three seats on the Court. of Criminal Appeals, three. I mean, look at this. Three seats on the Court of Appeals, the Agriculture Commissioner, the railroad Commissioner, the control of the Tarrant. County Commissioners Court, Fort Bend County judge, Williamson County judge. They won everywhere statewide. and in local county offices as well. Caitlin, I mean, the big question has been. well won. We'll see what Texas looks like for us. in the next presidential election. But in general, for Democrats in 2028,

it has supercharged a conversation. that was already pretty much up there. Yeah, I mean, look at this. I mean, Democrats won back the Senate. and the chance. that they're going to hold it. according to the prediction. market come 2028. Look at this 88%. Well obviously. see what happens come 2028. But this could be a Democratic majority. that they won on Tuesday. That could be here for some time to come. Caitlin. Democrats have either one or lead in. enough races to get a net gain. Flip nine seats 999.

And I went back through the record books. That would be. if it doesn't fact up being nine. the most. the highest number of seats. that Democrats. flipped on the Senate side, net gain. since 1958 68. years ago, the biggest win in 68 years. And if you ask the president in German. if he was happy about this, what was the answer behind nine nine? All right. Exactly. So put this in perspective in terms.

of how the Democrats. have done this century. Yeah, okay. I mean, look at this. is or would be the first time. Senate wins in the 21st century. Kansas. It's the first time since 1932. South Carolina, the first time. since Fritz Hollings in 1998. How about Texas? The first time. since Lloyd Bentsen back in 1988, and Mississippi, which obviously is too close to call. as of right now. It'd be the first time. since 1982 and Johnson is for seats, potentially, that Democrats could win. in the United States Senate,

that they simply haven't. won this entire century. It's historic. Been a long, long, long time. And you found one combination. even rarer, never having never happened before. How about this. first time ever, in the same year. that Democrats win both Kansas. and Maine, Kansas. and Maine. So we're talking about flips. that simply haven't happened. this century, and we're talking about. winning combinations.

that haven't happened ever before. Why would you go with Kansas. or Kane. if you were trying to combine the two? I think that my name could be man Kane. Okay. Very good. What? So talk to us. about how the prediction markets here. had seen all this. Yeah, I think this is so interesting. as we sort of. understand why at this point, in my mind, Chuck Schumer. is such a heavy favorite. to remain the Democratic Senate leader. And that is a lot of the complaining came. when most people really didn't. give Democrats much of a shot.

to win the United States Senate chance. that Dems win the Senate in 2026. Look at this. A year ago it was just 30%. It was just 30%. Now obviously it's 100%. They've done it. They've done it. Thus what are some chances. and then what are thus. what are Schumer's chances. to remain Senate leader? Look at this. It was 53% two months ago. It's now up to 90%. According to the House prediction market. And turns out that. if you're a Senate leader. and you put up. a historic result of your party. sees it, your chance of staying in charge. pretty gosh darn good. I'm going to go to CNN's Harry Enten.

at the Magic Wall. So what are the closest races. you're keeping an eye on? Yeah. You know, the Senate obviously is Alaska. It's Mississippi. But let's take a look. at the House of Representatives, because at this point, as you mentioned, Democrats, well, they shellacked the Republicans, but it could get even bigger. So right now we're talking about 253. 156 of the Republicans, we're talking about a net. pick up of 40 seats. That being said, as I said, I believe it will get bigger. Why do I say that? Because take a look at the seats.

in which Democrats are currently leading. They could get up to 260 in the Senate, up to 260. We're talking about a potential net gain, perhaps of 45 seats. My goodness gracious. How do they get there? How do they get there? Well, why don't we take a look. at the uncalled seats at this point, the Democrats currently lead. And I'm going to take you. across the political map. because it goes across the political map. This is a wave. that was quite wide and quite deep. Well, let's go to Colorado. and let's talk about Lauren Boebert. Lauren Boebert, who I think is known. to most people nationally. Right. Obviously a firebrand.

She is trailing. She is trailing at this hour. by a point. with 97% of the estimated vote. And she's probably going down. to defeat in Colorado. Let's widen out the picture here. Let's come back to the East Coast. Let's go to South Carolina. We're going to go to South Carolina, and we're going to go to. the Charleston area. This is the Nancy Mace district. What are we looking at here? Well, we are looking in that Nancy. Mesa district. may in fact go blue in this election. You can see Nancy LaCour, the Democratic candidate, up.

by about a point. with 99% of the estimated vote in. this was a heavily Republican district. back in 2024. Donald Trump won it by 13 points. Why don't we go? We'll stay in the southeast. and we're going to go to Tennessee. because Tennessee had redistricting. Well, sometimes you can be too smart by half. and sometimes you don't. draw the lines necessarily. the way you want to. We're going to go here. We're going to go. southeast of Nashville, Tennessee. This is a district that went Republican. in the presidential election. last time around by more than 20 points.

But look at this. Look at this. The Democrat is leading here. knocking off potentially. the incumbent here. by a point right now. at 99% of the estimated vote in. And as I said, this is really just. why the whole thing is so wide. that Democrats are doing at this point. Let's go to Minnesota. We're going to go to Tim. Walz's old district. in the southern part of Minnesota. Look at this. Jake Johnson, the Democrat, barely holding on a 321 vote lead. But in a district that Donald Trump. carried by 12 points. As I said, Anderson,

it is all over the political map. Southwest, southeast, Midwest. What did we learn in. the voter used to be exit polls. about young voters, historic shift going on, historic shift. You know, Donald Trump. put up a historically strong performance. among voters. under the age of 30 back in 2024, only losing him by low double digits. Look at where we are right now. Hello. Voters under the age of 30. That, my dear. friends, is a 47 point margin. That's not low double digits. That is not low double digits.

That's a 30 point shift. towards the Democratic Party. I will note Barack Obama won voters. under the age of 30 back in 2000, and obviously. a different group of voters. under the age of 30 by only 34 points. So again, this is better. than Obama was doing within that group. What about young men, young men? I mean, this is another story. of this election. If you look at young men, okay, Donald Trump won. this group, I believe, by a point. Look at this shift. He won. He won that group. He won young men. tonight in the House vote nationally.

Look at that. We are talking about Democrats. winning that vote. by 33 points a tremendous shift. an over 30 point shift. And then finally young Latino men. in 2024, Donald Trump easily. carried this. He won that. He won that group easily won that group. He won that group. And what we see right here is. look at this. Oh my goodness gracious. That is a well over 40 point win. for the Democrats running for the House.

This is the story. Young voters young men young Latino men. racing away from Donald Trump. and the Republican Party. Just seismic shifts. That's exactly right. In the words of Nancy Reagan. They just said, now. I'm here with Harry Enten. to go through the numbers. and to tell us something we don't know. So, you know, Columbus has had. Smith has no path to victory, is he correct? I don't know if. Yeah, if she has no path, but if she has any paths, they are very, very narrow.

Scott Callum. is the clear favorite at this point. I fully expect him to be the next senator. from the great state of Mississippi. And why do I say that? Well, first off, as Aaron was pointing out, the lead has been widening. But it is more than that. It is where Cindy Hyde-Smith. is going to make up the deficit. that she currently faces. I mean, you know, we can just go to the map here. and we can say, okay, where are the counties? Let's just say where we have less. than we have showing 94% reporting. or less. Well, there's a lot more blue on this map. than there is red.

There are still votes to be counted. from the Jackson area, Hinds County, right. There are still votes to be counted. from these counties. that are blue, that are heavily, heavily Democratic. I mean, look at this 86 to 13. My goodness gracious. Right. And that's not the only one. I mean you can go here. What do we have here 75 to 2024? I mean these are heavily. Democratic counties. And the only really one. red left is around Tupelo. And you can see it right here. Cindy Hyde-Smith. Yeah, she's ahead, but only by 17.

In my opinion, if anything, based on the map, math and everything. that we've seen so far in this race, I actually expect columns. lead to widen as more votes are counted, not shrink. Okay. You know, I'm looking at this, tie. Pynchon's? Yes. Tie Pynchon's. He's at 2% here. And we're. and we. and we of it's about 2% overall as well. Right. So that's been consistent. But you know obviously. when you're looking at a margin of. what did I say 2574 votes. Yeah. And tie Pynchon's has 20,000 votes. If Tie Pynchon's were not in this race.

we would maybe know. who the winner is. and we might be looking. at something different. I mean, what's happening here? Yeah. I mean, this to me is very interesting. because there were a lot of complaints. or a lot of noise that I heard. that Pynchon's was taking. votes away from Scott Colome. No. If anything, the math shows he's. actually taking votes. away from Cindy Hyde-Smith. Take a look at this voter. for the independent. and the Mississippi Senate race. Look at this. 3% of Republican or independent. leaning Republicans said, in fact, that they had voted for tie pickets. Compare. that to the percentage of Democrats.

who said 000. So I think based upon the polling. that I am looking at, he was basically this escape valve. for a lot of non MAGA Republicans to say, I can't go all the way to Democrats, but I can't vote for Cindy Hyde-Smith, who is backed Trump. so much, which, by the way, is making the point. that if Ty Pinkins were not in the race, that does not mean Cindy. Hyde-Smith would get those votes. No. So that seeing that GOP. voting is not the same thing is exactly. which is which is important. Ari, tell me something else I don't know. All right. That tells you something else. You don't know Erin Burnett, and that is, you know, Democrats.

had a really good night on Tuesday night, but I think that. they have a pretty good chance. of holding onto these House. and Senate majorities. in the next election as well. Take a look at the cash. prediction market chance. that Democrats win in 2028. The House 81%. The Senate. now up to 88% chance, which of course. makes a whole heck of a lot of sense, because if you're winning in states. like Mississippi. and you get up, let's say you win, Alaska's well, you get the 56. seats in the United States Senate. Awfully difficult. given the map in 2028. that Democrats will lose. that Senate majority.

for more and other closely watched races, want to bring in. CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten. So what are the races. are you looking at right now? Yeah. You know, obviously you mentioned. that South Carolina. call earlier today, and that takes us from 253. for the Democrats. upwards to 254 as they climb the stairway. to electoral heaven. You know, we're speaking about South Carolina. Let's go right there. We'll go to the Charleston. area, Anderson. And, you know, tight race. But you know what, Nancy? Look for wins it. Nancy, look for wins it. This is yet. another flip for the Democrats.

as they climb. As I said, that ladder. getting closer and closer to 260. Now, one thing I do want to note. is we focus so much on the Senate. and on the House. But for me, what's so interesting. is the United States. governorships, the governorships, which have not gotten. nearly as much attention. And why do I point that out? Because right now, Democrats. are leading Anderson in. and enough races. that they could get 30 governorships. by the end of this election cycle,

which, in fact, would put them in their best position. in governorships since the early 1990s. One race. in which they are leading. that is uncalled at. this hour is in Kansas. Look at this. The Democrat ahead by a little bit. less than a percentage point. And then the other one I will note. is in Alaska, the last time that a Democrat was elected. governor of Alaska, Anderson was all the way back in 1998. It hasn't happened. this century that. gentleman was Tony Knowles. We've been talking about the.

massive gains Democrats mean nationally. What does it look like. among young male voters. that helped propel. the president back to the white House? Yeah, I this to me. is one of the great switch eras. that we have seen. Anderson. You know, when we're talking. about the Senate races, right. And we're talking about. how how well Democrats did. young men. helped propel them in both the House. and in the Senate. So what are we talking about? Well, let's take a look at the vote. margin in the House. I mean, my goodness gracious, look at this shift. Look at this shift. Donald Trump carried young men,

those under the age of 30. by 14 points back in 2024. Look at how much Dems. won in the House vote among young men. They won by 25. They won by 25. That is a 39 point switcheroo. That's one of the biggest shifts. that we saw in the entire electorate. Turns out that the young men. said, you know what? We don't exactly. like what Donald Trump. is doing in office now. Beyond that, what about specific races? Well, let's talk about Texas.

Let's talk about Texas. Sanders look at this in Texas. You want to know. one of the reasons James Talarico won. is because of young men in Texas. Look at this. Donald Trump carried young men, those under the age of 30 by 24 points. James Talarico won them by 34 points. Wow is exactly right, a 58 point shift. that helped propel him. to be the first Democratic senator. elected from Texas since 1988. Anderson.