Can Vance rescue the GOPs chances? Enten runs the numbers

Vice President Vance out on the campaign  trail a lot the last few weeks in the face. of the headwinds that come from the high price  of oil and the high price at the pump. Who does. he blame for that? Not the war in Iran. No, he  blames Joe Biden. That's actually the biggest. reason why gas prices are so high is because  when Joe Biden was president, we had about. 20% of American refining capacity that went  offline. We're slowly bringing that online, but it does take a little bit of time. It's  almost been two years. At a certain point,

it becomes your economy, not Joe Biden's economy.  Also, back in March, right here in Michigan, you said it was just a temporary blip in gas  prices. How long is temporary? Well, look, um I I don't think that when when this conflict  is over, we are going to see gas prices come down. Also, it was the Iran war that was the beginning  of the rising gas prices there. Just pure and. simple. With us now, CNN chief data analyst Harry.  But let's talk about the vice president who is.

putting his own political capital on the line in  these midterm elections. How's he doing? Yeah, I would just say ain't nobody's buying that line  of reasoning. Americans think there's a lack of. reasoning in that argument. I I mean, you could  just see it right here. I mean, just take a look. at J. D. Vance's net favorability ring. You go  back to the beginning of his vice presidency, you. could see it right here. He was three points above  water. Hey, three points. You're on the positive. side of ledger. But down he goes in a lake Erie  to use a nice body of water in his home state to.

minus 15 points. That's a switcheroo Johnny B of  18 points in the wrong directions. And of course, I know Johnny B likes my little nuggets at the  bottom of the screen. His net favorability among. independents has gone from about zero, which  ain't too great, but ain't too awful, to now. about minus30 points with independents going  the wrong way. The vice president of the United. States is just leave the bottom of the screen.  That's all I have to say about that. Let's talk. about where this fits in historical perspective.  Where does this fit in historical perspective? So,

you see this minus 15 points. All right, let's  put an historical perspective. Look at other vice. presidents at this point in their vice presidency.  And you could see it here. The lowest number on. your screen among Republican vice presidents is  J. D. Vances minus 15 points here. Mike Pence. was actually above water plus one. Dick Cheney  obviously the Iraq war and obviously before that. 9/11 plus 41 points. We were thinking about going  to Iraq then. Dan Quail who formally formerly held. the lowest point. When you think about GOP vice  presidents that the American people don't like,

you think of Dan Quail, but the minus 15 points.  JD Vance even beats Dan Quill. And then of course. George Herbert Walker Bush at plus 10 points. Very  different from the JD Vance at minus 15 points. So. JD Vance by far the least popular Republican vice  president at this point in a vice presidency. One. of these things is not like the other in terms  of the polling. But surely he's doing well in. his home state of Ohio. You know what? Maybe  you could say, "Yeah, exactly right. Surely you. could send him to Ohio." But no, he's not really  helpful in Ohio. Look at this. Look at JD Vance's.

net favorability in Ohio. He's now even underwater  there. Seven points underwater in his home state. of Ohio. He's deep under the Ohio River. Look  at this. Back when he was, of course, elected. vice president, he was at plus five. This is a  switcheroo of 12 points in the wrong direction. And again, my little nugget at the bottom of your  screen, minus 38 points with pure independence. He. simply put is not helpful nationally and he's not  even helpful in his own home state. So, there's. no question he's out there to elect Republicans  in 2026. But there's also really no question that. he's got his eye when they're open on 2028.  Yeah, we got sad Vance. We got sad. What are.

the prediction market saying about his chances?  Yeah. What about his chances in 20? Okay. Chance. that Vance wins the 2028 presidential election.  You know, a year ago he was at 33% according to. the cash prediction market. That's people putting  their money where their mouths are. You could see. it right here. 22% chance. So JD Vance as he's  become less popular nationwide. His chances of. becoming the next president have also fallen as  well. JD Vance and the president um crisscrossing. the country. This is the final push. Of course,  the latest polar polls uh I've just suggesting uh.

that President Trump's approval rating among the  American public uh stands at something like 34%. We have to ask at this point how much of a  liability the president has become for Republicans. on this campaign trail and how difficult it is for  them to separate themselves from the president's. record. Well, midterm elections uh which are for  the whole of the House and a third of the Senate.

uh in the United States always turn into a  referendum of the president who was elected. uh two years before uh especially in times of  economic uh difficulty as we're seeing now with. Americans really still hurting from high prices  which really haven't come down from the pandemic. and they've been exacerbated by the war in Iran.  So Trump's popularity is a massive undertoe for a. lot of Republican candidates, especially because  the Democrats still aren't particularly popular.

themselves, but they're apparently benefiting from  Trump's uh deep unpopularity. I think one reason. uh why this is difficult for Republicans is when  people go to the grocery stores or they gas up. their car, uh there is a tangible uh focus for  their anger. Uh the Iran war has demonstrously. made prices much higher and that is something that  is clearly all down to President Trump's decision.

to go to war. A war he said would end very quickly  and one which is now in its eighth month. So. uh normally these elections are difficult  because of the particular circumstances. of this year. Uh they're even more  difficult for the president's party. Yeah. It's fascinating, isn't it?  At that Michigan town hall, uh, Vance faced some pretty pointed questions,  um, about immigration, about the Iran war, and on the economy. I just want  our viewers to hear this exchange.

There's a big difference between what you're  saying right now and what President Trump says. when he's out on the trail. He says it's an A+  economy. You say it's going to take time. You. say you're frustrated at times. Which is  it? Well, I think that what the president. is saying is that we are seeing all of these  massive new investments come into our country, but he would be the first person to tell  you that you got to build the factories. first before you can employ the workers  working in those factories. But to her point,

you see that it's it's not an A+ economy if you  hear stories like this. Well, I think what we're. doing is we're turning the ship around, Sandy.  That's what I would say. And by the way, Sandy, there are things that we we look, we need  to do more and we can certainly do better. Where do you believe he struggled and will  continue to struggle most, Stephen, to defend the. administration's policies? Yeah, that town hall  on Saturday night was very interesting because.

Vance was in a position which Trump doesn't put  himself in uh very often. Uh Trump is going around. doing rallies in deeply Republican states, uh  hanging out with all of his supporters. In the. White House, uh he's in a real gilded bubble of  millionaires and billionaires and people who were. appointed simply because they flatter him and tell  him good news. So Vance is getting a taste of what. the country wants. I think the issue here is that  when you have an electorate that wants change,

it's ground down by years of higher prices. uh and  the president is ignoring them, telling people, "Well, this is going to get better in a little  while. Uh gas prices will come down when the war. ends, and that will be soon." People have  heard all this over and over again. So, when a politician is telling people facts or uh  propositions that do not tally with the evidence. of their everyday lives, that's when they tend  to get in trouble, especially uh on economic.

conditions. uh every administration when there  is a time of economic duress has to tell voters, look, we're working on it and it's going to get  better. Voters have heard that so many times in. the last 25 years. They're not in the mood for  it. And I think that is one reason why in the. United States we keep seeing these elections  every two years in which the incumbent party. uh takes a heavy blow because people are are  kind of despairing a little bit uh that the.

system will be able to alleviate their problem. I  think this is not just something that's happening. in the United States. If you look at almost all of  the westernized democracies, uh politicians come. in promising change and then struggle to quickly  enact it and they get into deep political trouble.