A midterm 'polling earthquake', blue TX enthusiasm, key margins & more | Enten election roundup
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2.1M viewsWe had the equivalent of a polling earthquake. A polling earthquake. And to keep up with the. weather metaphors or the meteorological metaphors, it tends to point to a blue wave. Tends to point. to a blue wave. That's at least according to seven new polls from the New York Times. What am I. talking about here? Well, why don't we look across the polling map, the the Senate polling map, because my goodness gracious, what do we see here? While in these key races in Michigan, Abdul Elsad up by 11 points over Mike Rogers in the great state of Michigan. How about Texas?
James Talerico aiming to be the first Democratic senator elected since all the way back in 198. He's up seven points. How about in Maine, Troy Jackson? Troy Jackson leading the longtime. incumbent Susan Collins by six points. How about in Ohio? Sher Brown trying to get his old job. back, although this is a different Senate seat. Up by six points in Ohio. How about in Kansas? Adam Hamilton aiming to be the first Democratic center elected since 1932. That's so long ago.
That is when Babe Ruth called his shot back in the 1932 World Series at Wrigleyfield. He's up by five. points in Kansas. Now, I should note that there were two other polls, two other states that were. pled back in by the New York Times. And these ones have no clear leader in these two races. Take a. look here. In Alaska, we're talking about no clear leader. The Democrats nominally ahead by one, Mary. Poll. How about in Iowa? Again, no clear leader, well within the margin of error. The Democratic. candidate there, Josh Turk, up nomally by one point, but again, way too close to call. So,
what does this mean for the Senate map? Well, right now, what we're looking at is Democrats. with 47 seats with all these yellow toss-ups on your screen. But if the New York Times is right, this yellow could very well be blue. So, what does that do? Well, Maine will turn blue. Ohio. will turn blue. Michigan becomes blue. Iowa, again, very close, but will turn that blue. How about Kansas? Blue there. Texas blue. And again, Alaska really close, but we'll turn. that blue. And that gets you from 47 seats for the Democrats heading into the cycle to now 54. That's.
a net gain of seven seats. My goodness gracious. Now, I should point out, Jessica, that of course. the polling in the past has tended, at least in the Trump one states, to underestimate Republicans. during the Trump era by an order of 4.1 points in the close Senate races. So, Republicans are still. very much in the game because the New York Times polls tend to be on the higher end, the really. good nights for Democrats. So, what might that do to the Senate map? Well, why don't we take.
Alaska? We'll turn that back red. Okay, we'll turn Iowa back red. Okay, then, you know, te Texas, very hard for Democrats to win there. We'll turn that red. And of course, Kansas, I mentioned 1932, will turn that red. And then all of a sudden, Republicans get to 50 Senate seats. And of course, you get the vice president breaking the tie in that situation. And that's not even counting Ohio. right there. And that gets you to 51 Republican Senate seats. So, Republicans still very much in. the game. That being said, I'm not necessarily sure Republicans can count on a polling miss.
benefiting them. Why do I say that? Well, if we look at the last few midterm elections, what do we. see? Dems were actually Democrats were more likely to beat their final Senate polling averages in 57%. of rate close races in 2018 and 100% of the close races in 2022. So maybe what we're looking at is. we should actually turn a few of these seats back blue. What are we talking about? Well, maybe it's. Texas. Maybe it's Ohio. Maybe it's Kansas. And that gets you a Democratic Senate clearly with.
52 seats. Bottom line is this, Jessica. We're now what? a little over a day away. Democrats probably. in the capidate seat, but Republicans still in the game. Literally within the last hour, as I look at. my fake watch, the New York Times just came out with a poll, and it's the equivalent of a polling. bombshell. What am I talking about here? Well, why don't we take a look at this? The new New York. Times pile has James Talerico up by seven points in the Lonear State. And Anderson, I looked back.
in all the spreadsheets and all the numbers that I could find. This is the best poll for a Democratic. candidate for Senate in Texas since 1988 when of course Lloyd Benson won re-election. He was also. running for VP at the time. This is the best poll this late in the campaign. Better was trailing. at this point back in 2018. But to be honest with you, Anderson, I'm not all that surprised because. there's just been so much enthusiasm behind and behind James Terico's campaign. I mean,
look at this. He is the biggest Senate fundraiser this year at $146 million according to USA Facts. And beyond that, if you look historically speaking at this point in the campaign, this $146 million. makes him the biggest Senate fundraiser ever, according to the FEC. And and what are voters. saying about Ter or about Ken Paxton? Well, they they they like they like James Celerico. They don't very much like Ken Paxton. And that I think is the other part of this equation that.
we're looking at right here. I mean, you know, we had our CNN poll that came out earlier this. month and you know who the least popular Texas GOP Senate nominee this century is. It's Ken Paxton. It's Ken Paxton at minus 29 points. So on the one hand, you get this historically popular candidate. on the Democratic side and James Telico. And on the other end, you get this historically unpopular. candidate on the Republican side and Ken Paxton. And you put it all together and then the cherry on.
top of the Sunday for Democrats at this point and why I think they have a real chance come Tuesday. is this. Take a look at Republican president's net approval ratings in Texas at this point in a term. Donald Trump is the lowest on this graph. And by far, look at this. He was 18 points underwater. in our CNN poll. And you know, you compare this to these other uh Republican presidents, including Donald Trump back in 2018. None of them were anywhere close to as unpopular as Trump is. Look at this. In 2018, Trump was at plus three. George W. Bush just before the 2006 midterm,
where of course Republicans not didn't just lose the House, they lost the Senate as well. He was. one point underwater. And he's not even close to where George W. Bush was after 9/11, those. 2002 midterms when Bush was 40 points above water. So, you put it all together here, a historically. unpopular Republican president. You put it with a historically unpopular GOP Senate nominee and. a historically popular Democratic nominee, and it may make the makings for something that hasn't. happened in Texas since 1988, and that is electing a Democrat to the United States Senate. Anderson,
you know, one of the great strengths that Donald Trump had back in 2024 was putting up historic. numbers for a Republican in Texas when it comes to the presidential vote. And you can just see. that all of those gains that Donald Trump made have been washed away in the polling. Now, this to me is key. I'm not looking and comparing to the exit polls. I'm comparing to the final New. York Times poll. So, this is an apple to apples comparison here. And take a look here. You know, back in 2024 in Texas, the final New York Times poll had Kla Harris up by six among.
Hispanic voters, Latino voters. Look at where James Talerico is now. Hello. Up 38 points. That is a 32point swing in James Terico's direction up like a rocket. And this to me if. James Terico is able to pull it off, it is because he will finally put together the magic formula of. winning white well-educated voters in the suburbs of Houston, Dallas, Austin, etc. Combine it with. good strength among Latino voters and that's a winning formula for Democrats in Texas. And he will need this. I know it looks like a lot there, but this is a number he will need. Correct.
uh if he wants to win this for the first time for Democrats in almost, you know, since 1988. When. you talk about excitement, you talk about turnout. Maybe that's part of the recipe for James Terrio, turning out voters who don't normally show up. A very high turnout. That's what excitement means. What are the prediction markets saying? Yeah, I think this is so key. You know, take a look at. the couch prediction market. Chance that turnout in the Texas Senate election is above 10 million, 96%. I should talk should mention that the midterm record for turnout in the Texas Senate race is 8.4.
million. This is way way way above what we have normally experienced if in fact the prediction. markets are right. And so a lot of enthusiasm, really good polling and a lot of money raised. and Latinos shifting back to left. Again, we'll see what happens tomorrow. We'll see what happens. tomorrow. But this to me is the recipe for success if you're a Democrat in Texas. If we're talking. about what Democrats need in order to win back the United States Senate, right, let's just start.
with the baseline. They need to win in states that Donald John Trump didn't just win two years ago, but won by double digits. And why would that potentially be difficult? Because I want you. to take a look at here. We're going to look at all the nonspecial elections and take a look at Senate. Senate flips in states that the party lost by 10 or more points in the last presidential election. The number is 000 since 2011 and Republican and Democrats need to flip at least two two states.
in which Donald Trump won by double digits just two years ago. It simply put has not happened. in 15 years. It hasn't happened and they need it to happen. Exactly right. Which is why it. should scare Democrats. And how has the polling been in these Trump states? Yeah. Okay. So, it simply put hasn't happened. And there have been times in which the polls actually suggested, hey, Republicans might actually lose in some of these Trump won states. And then it didn't happen. And. we've seen it happen time in and time out. Okay. GOP has beat the final Senate poll average by.
4.1 points in states Trump won in the prior presidential election. And we're looking at. the close states. We're looking at the close states. And this is one thing to keep in mind, which is we look at states like Ohio. We look at states like Texas. We look at states like Alaska. We look at states like Kansas. And if you took a polling average in all of them, well, they're. all within this range. They're all within this range. So, you look at this and you look at this.
and you say there have been zero of these flips and you go, "Ooh, are the polls potentially wrong. again?" And that's the type of thing that gives a little silence to Republicans. And it's, I think, a spooky spooky spooky for Democrats. Okay. So just as an academic exercise, put this number. over the polling averages we've seen in these key states. Yeah. And this is exactly it. So okay, 2026 Senate if the polls underestimate make the GOP by four plus points in these Trump one states. Look at this. Michigan is red. We got Ohio being red. We have Iowa being red. We have Kansas being.
red. We have Texas being red. We have Alaska being red. And that math is Republicans hold. on to the United States Senate 52 to 48. And that even keeps Maine blue where Susan Collins has had. her own ability to outperform the polling data as it comes in at the end as we saw back in 2020. So. if the past polling errors hold in these Trump won states, then all of a sudden Republicans are able. to hold on the United States Senate and with ease. So temper expectations maybe for Democrats there.
What are the prediction markets saying about all this? Yeah. And this is the thing. Look, the prediction markets, take a look at the cash prediction market. Yes. The Democrats. are favored 69% Republicans with the 31% chance to win the United States Senate. But look, 31% things. happen all of the time. You know, Johnny Bay and I were talking about this before we came on. You. think about the NBA finals last year, the Knicks came back against the Spurs, and let me tell you, in a lot of those games, their chance of winning those games was significantly less than 31%. So,
what are we seeing in the polling right now in terms of the difference between people that the. pollsters are calling registered voters and likely voters? Yeah. Okay. So registered voters are all. those people who are registered to vote. Likely voters are the ones who are likely to show up and. vote in the election, right? And those are the ones that we often pay attention to. And what's. so interesting here is we see this massive split between what we see in the national polls for the. national house ballot and what we see in the key Senate races. So what do we see? The average gain.
going from all the likely voters. Republicans are gaining just a point. Just a point in the national. house ballot, but look at this. In the key Senate races, they are averaging a fourpoint gain, significantly higher than we see in the national polls. Now, I should note that this is among. pollsters who released both registered voter and likely voter results. That's what we're. looking at here. But what we're seeing is amongst that group, Republicans are gaining significantly. more in the Senate races than they are in the House races. So, when you look at likely voters,
four points higher for Republicans in these key races. Correct. when we look at past elections, right? Has that been the case? Yeah, I don't buy this four number. I just don't. I just don't. I I. I I I think it's significantly too high. Why do I say that? Well, why don't we look here? The gain in party ID in midterms with Republican presidents like we have this year. Okay. And we're. talking about going from all to validated voters. Look at this. In the party ID from 1982 to 2018.
nationally, look at this. Republicans gained one point on average. How about in 2018? Again, it was. one point on average. That looks a whole heck of a lot more like what we're seeing in the national. polling than what we are seeing in that key Senate race polling where right now it's a four-point. That is very much not in line with what we've seen historically when we look at the national. party ID. And what about the key races again? Yeah. Okay. So, you say, "Oh, but you know that. that's the national. What about the key races?" Well, why don't we just look back at 2018? Okay.
going from all the validated voters. Look, in the key 2018 Senate races, Republicans gained, but again, it was just two points. Not anywhere close, not anywhere close to that four points. And if you look in the key 2026 Senate races back in 2018, Republicans gained just a point in those. races. Again, much more like what we're seeing in that national numbers than we're seeing in those. Senate key Senate race numbers. And so, to me, I look at those numbers and I go, I don't buy it. I think Democrats are actually probably going to do better on election day than those likely voter.
numbers are in at least some of those states. Yeah. And by the way, good on the pollsters who. release both and let you see a little bit of the methodology. This is not a critique necessarily. the pollsters. I'm just saying what historically has held. So take a look at you as a consumer. Take a look at both of them and consider it for yourselves there. In general right now, what are the prediction markets saying about all this? Yeah. And and this is the other thing, you know, the prediction markets which are trying to take all this into account. The chance that. Democrats win the Senate in 2026, according to the couch prediction market, look at this. It's a 64%. chance that Democrats do in fact win back control of the Senate. That's up significantly from where.
we were just a few months ago. All right, Harrian, I appreciate this discussion. I hope the audience. appreciates it. It's a little bit of nerdom, but you know, we're two nerds, so we figured why not. join the nerd party. It is an interesting discussion that is out there right now. Go. to social media. You can find some very angry data people right now. Oh, yeah. Harri, thank you very. much. It is Halloween and I will say looking at the data, it's starting to get spooky for. Republicans out there, at least when it comes to the United States House of Representatives.
Because what are we looking at? Well, we are looking at a Congress that is historically. disliked. Dislike going into an election, whether it be a midterm or presidential year. Take a look. here. Approve of Congress. Just 14% Just 14% of Americans approve of the job that Congress. is doing. That is the lowest ever going into an election on record. The lowest ever. You know, Congress is pretty much always disliked, but never this dislike going into an election. We're talking. about 81% 81% of Americans who disapprove of the job that Congress is doing. Now, I know what some.
of you might be thinking, including you, Jessica. Look, Congress is always disliked, but people. still like their own representative. Not so much the case anymore. Not so much the case. Because if. you thought that first number was spooky if you're a Republican or those first two numbers were. spooky. This one these these are even scarier. Take a look at this. Say their own Congress member. deserves re-election or does not deserve it. Look at this. Just 43% just 43% of Americans say that.
their own Congress member deserves re-election. For the first time ever going into an election, we. are talking about the plurality. 45% who say that their own Congress member does not in fact deserve. re-election. So you have overall Americans record dislike for Congress going into an election, whether it be a midterm or presidential, and you combine it with the first time ever in which the. plurality say that their own member of Congress does not deserve re-election. And this, of course,
creates a perfect storm, a storm that Democrats may very well like come Tuesday, but Republicans. may very well hate. And you can see it right here on the national congressional ballot. Look at. these numbers. Look at this trend. It is a trend that makes Democrats very happy and should make. Republicans very sad. Here it is. The national congressional ballot Democratically. Look, a year ago it was Democrats by five. During the summer of this year, it was Democrats by six. See,
I can add five and then one more to make it six. Now we're talking about a Democratic advantage. on the national congressional ballot of nine points. Yes, I I feel like the count here. Feel. like the count. Nine points. Now, why is that nine-point lead so important? Because remember, we have had those battles over redistricting. Republicans redistricted Texas. Democrats. redistricted California. They went monoemano back and forth. And Republicans at the end of the day.
won the redistricting battles. But here's the thing. This nine-point advantage, this nine-point. advantage easily overcomes easily overcomes the GOP redistricting edge. Republicans really were. hoping that this number would be closer to, let's say, four points or three points because nine. points easily overcomes it. So, at the end of the day, I think the question is, you know, what are. the odds that Democrats will do well on Tuesday? What are the odds? Well, according to the couch. prediction market, take a look here. chance that Democrats win the House of Representatives. A year.
ago, Jessica, it was 58%. Those chances have come rocketing up. We're now talking a 94% chance that. Democrats take back the House of Representatives. Now, I will note 94%. It ain't 100%. Republicans. still have a chance, but you would much rather be a Democrat going into Tuesday than a Republican, at least when it comes to the US House of Representatives. Let's go over to the magic wall. Harry Anton is out front there. So Harry, when Trump is going back to Kansas and Iowa, last night.
we were together and he was not going because they did not need him because they were winning by so. much. Oh yeah, of course. And now they are they are he is going. Wow. So I guess um let's start. on on Kansas. Yeah. Why is this now the right decision to go? Oh, I would have been going all. the way if you want if you believe that you can actually help out because I could tell you Roger. Marshall, the Republican candidate, needs all the help he can get. And why do I say that is because. if you look at the polling coming out of Kansas right now, what you see is Adam Hamilton literally.
is the best polling Democratic Senate nominee this entire century. Remember, of course, Kansas. has not elected a Democratic center since 1932 when Babe Roof of course called his shot in that. exact same year. Again, a World Series at Wrigley Field against the Chicago Cubs. In fact, I say in. the 21st century, I couldn't find one going back into the mid '9s. And that's when my polling data. set runs out. So that's why he's going back out there. Now, here's the thing to so keep in mind, right? Is if let's say we give Kansas over to the Democrats, right? We make that bloom. We're going.
to create a Midwestern path right here. And then we give Iowa as well to the Democrats. Josh Turk, the Democrat there, running strong. Hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 2008. And Tom Harkin. And then let's say we give them Ohio, right? You saw that Polar polls had uh the Democrat Sherid. Brown up by five points. You get to 50. And then if you give them Michigan, where we just had a. poll out yesterday that had Abdul A, the Democrat, up by seven points, that alone gets you to 51.
Senate seats without touching Texas, Alaska, or Maine. Right. Right. Which is a which is a. map Democrats would want because Alaska obviously it's it's it's unpredictable. It's slow to count. It's we had all the news from this. He has all the news. So So they would they would they would like. a path that doesn't include that. Correct. But if the Democrats lose Kansas and lose Iowa, right? If Trump is right that indeed those candidates are up and this is not what it you know what. what polls indicate it might be, then what's the path? Okay, then what's the path? Well, you know,
we I mentioned Texas, right? Well, here's the thing to keep in mind about Texas. Who's the least. popular Texas GOP Senate nominee this century in the great state of Texas? It's Ken Paxton. 29 points underwater. My goodness gracious, he stinks. The voters there do not like him at all. So if then all of a sudden we say, you know, we're keeping Kansas and Iowa, we're not giving, but we can give them we can give them Texas. That gets you to 50. And then of course if you go up to. Maine and you win there, and of course Kla Harris carried the state of Maine. Susan Collins has held. on before. You found another way without Alaska. We found another way without Alaska. And this is.
why, in my opinion, the Democrats are favored at this point to take back the Senate is because they. have so many different pathways. You could take a Midwest path and you don't have to carry Texas. You carry Texas, you carry M. And you don't have to carry Kansas and Iowa. And in none of these do. you have to carry Alaska. Democrats just have a lot of playing. And you're not even putting like. a Hail Mary like South Carolina. No. Just making clear like that's not even this this map based. upon the polling. It's just that Democrats have a lot of pass without having to go into the deep.
south in the states that haven't elected Democrats in South Carolina since like 1998 or Mississippi. or Louisiana either. When it comes to voter fraud, switching votes, uh committing a federal crime, right? um voting when you're illegally in the country, all the things that Trump says happens. How much of a focus has this been for Trump? Trump is so obsessed with this. Oh my god, he's like a high schooler, you know, wondering about who they're going to date next. You know, we talk about the second term for President Trump. He has mentioned it on 71% of the Dave second.
term. He has tried to cast doubts on elections in this country. He is just flat out absolutely. obsessed with this despite there being no proof whatsoever. Well, it's I I always think it's kind. of a weird situation because when you end up saying without you have to say, "Well, someone. claims the sky is purple without evidence." Well, then all of a sudden there's like, "Well, will there be evidence?" No. No. Actually, the sky is just not purple. Correct. And that's part of. the problem here. Uh is is the way that it injects doubt? Yeah. And that leads me to the question, which is is it having 71% of the days of saying something that's happening is happening that isn't.
happening that affecting voters? Not not really. You know, if you take a look at the percentage of. voters who think that the votes will be cast and counted accurately, you compare where we are this. year to where we were before the 2020 election, it's about the same level. We're talking about. three and five who have confidence right now in the system. And more than that, when you break. it down by party, you see that majorities of both parties actually have confidence in the system. Yes, it is true that Democrats have slightly more confidence than Republicans do, but the.
majority of both parties do in fact believe that the votes will be cast and counted accurately, which is really important. And I'm think, you know, in a moment we're going to be joined by, you know, people who ran these elections and run these elections. One of them, Gabe Sterling. from Georgia, you know, can go through that they did recount after recount after recount. Okay, I know it happens to be literally sitting right in the other side. Okay, so but right all these. recounts, all these things to investigate if there is fraud. Okay, how good are the safeguards? The.
safeguards to me are quite good because according to USA facts, what you see is all 50 states have. postelection audit laws in effect, statutes in effect. So if there was something nefarious going. on, we would catch it. we would catch it despite whatever President Trump is trying to throw out. there into the public sphere. The bottom line is the safeguards are in place and there's been. no proof whatsoever that there's been any sort of widespread fraud. And by the way, it's prosecuted. when they find fraud. Correct. And people can go to jail for a long time. Exactly. The right.