Senate showdowns, blue waves, Trump corruption & more | Enten roundup

control of the US Senate at one point seemed out  of reach for Democrats. What about now? I think. that people who have not been paying attention  would be quite surprised to find that Democrats. are actually the favorite now to take back the  United States Senate. And why do I say that? Just. take a look here. 2026 Senate. This is a result  if the results in fact match the polls. Now, of course, I'll note it's September and the  polls aren't perfect, but if the polls are. exactly right and they hold, look at this.  Democrats get 53 seats after all said and. done. Republicans 47 seats. Why? They flip Maine.  They flip Ohio. They flip Iowa. They flip Texas.

They flip North Carolina. And they flip Alaska,  which is very much been in the news. And they. hold all the states that they are at this point  potentially in danger of losing. The bottom line. is this. This has been a great month. If you're  a Democrat or you're rooting for the Democrats, in terms of the polling, pretty much all of  the polls that have come in have been really, really good. Dare I say, the polling suggests  a blue wave is absolutely building. Three quick.

caveats. Number one, you talk about Maine here,  you're talking about the average of the polls. in Maine because people are going to go, "Oh, what  the New York Times poll that shows Susan's calling. heads?" It does. It does, but the average right  now, the average, there were two other polls that. showed her behind. Also, it's September and polls  aren't perfect. We've stipulated that. What are. the prediction markets saying about this? Yeah.  Okay. So, you say, okay, you know, but the polls, they've been under estimating Republicans in  the past. We can look at the prediction markets, right? We can look at the prediction markets.  They say the same story. Basically, champs win the. Senate at this point. Now, Democrats have a 61%  chance to win the United States Senate. At this.

point in the 2024 cycle, it was just a 25% chance,  right? Republicans were favored back in the 2025. cycle. And you go back to the 2018 cycle, you see  the prediction market saying that Republicans were. favored then as well. And of course they gain  seats in that cycle. So as I steal the words out. of Johnny Bee's mouth, the bottom line is this.  The prediction markets are agreeing with the. polls. Prediction markets have been good in the  past in this. And right now the couch prediction. market has Democrats favored to win back the  United States Senate with a 61% chance. You talked.

about 2018 because what what some Republicans say  is, "Hey, look, Republicans lost the House then, but we actually gained seats in the Senate."  They say that's what could happen this time. No, this is a completely different picture. It all has  to do with President Trump. Look at this. Okay, Trump's average net approval in the key Senate  states that year back in 2018, right? Look at. that. Trump was above water. Trump was actually  a positive in the key Senate races that year, right? The map was really red. States  like Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota,

right? But look now, minus 19 points. President  Trump is 23 points less popular in the key Senate. races this year than they were in the 2018  cycle. And you can even look at the states. in play. You can look at the states in play. Look  at this. Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Texas. Look. at this. President Trump's net approval rating  minus 10 or worse in all of them. And of course, he won all these states except for Maine, which  of course he is the furthest underwater. President. Trump is a drag on the Republican party. That  is a key difference from 2018. Now, Democrats.

are absolutely favored to take back the Senate.  Of course, it's still September. One of course. Donald Trump's big nicknames was crooked Hillary.  We are a long way from crooked Hillary. Look at. this. Okay, voters on Trump and corruption versus  Hillary Clinton. He was more trusted on corruption. back in November of 2016. It was a big reason why  he got to the White House in the first place. He. was more trusted by 10 points. But look at his net  approval rating right now on corruption. It's now. minus 33 points among independents. It's minus 47  points. Corruption, which was a big reason why the.

issue of corruption, a big reason why Donald Trump  gone to the White House in the first place, is now. a weakness for him. This is a shift Johnny B of  43 points away from the president of the United. States on really the key issue that again got him  elected in the first place. And is it contagious? We've been asking about contagion. Is it go beyond  Donald Trump to Republicans? To me, it is very. much contagious and very much goes to Republicans  and reminds me of an election that Democrats will. very much like the comparison to. That is 2006. Of  course, corruption played a key role in the 2006.

election. help get Democrats elected. Help them  win in a number of red areas. Trust which party. more on corruption. Back in 2006, Democrats were  more trusted on the issue of corruption by nine. points. Look at this. If anything, their lead is  a little bit wider right now. They're more trusted. on the issue of corruption by 11 points. That's  a two-point shift from an election that Democrats. did very well. And they didn't just win the United  States House of Representatives, they won the. United States Senate as well. This is an analogy  that I think Democrats would really, really like.

you know, 94 there were when Republicans took over  their issues of corruption as well. It often does. seep into wave elections. I don't know if this is  going to be a wave or not, but it does sometimes. correlate. What are voters saying about corruption  being one of their top issues? And this is the. other reason why, right? Why is this 11point lead  so important? Just ask, okay, top problems facing. the country can list up to two issues. This is  a recent NBC news poll. Look at this. 44% said. inflation, but look at what was number two.  Government corruption comes in at 36%. This. is an issue that can drive voters from one party  to another. And in this point, when you're seeing.

that the Democrats have an 11-point lead and  you're seeing that corruption is the number two. issue along with inflation, that's a very very big  deal. Very quickly, there's a a candidate on the. ballot in Texas for Senate who has been impeached,  right? Yes, that's exactly right. That was Ken Pax. and James Telerico making a big deal of it.  Chance to win the Texas Senate race according. to cash prediction market. James Telerico 43% two  months ago. Look where it is now. Up like a rocket. up to 56%. He has really been going after Kim Pax  on this. It seems to be working for him. We have. spoken about how historically awful President  Trump's ratings are on inflation. The worst.

ever. If Republicans think that they can escape  it, well, the polling data suggests something. entirely different. You can see it right here.  Okay. Party trusted more inflation. This is a. Fox News poll that came out this month. Democrats  trusted more by 15 points. I went back through. all the spreadsheets that I could possibly find.  This is a historically large lead for Democrat. It appears to be me through the data. That is  the largest lead in over 50 years. You have to.

go all the way back to the mid 1970s to find  a bigger lead than this 15point advantage that. Democrats have right now in inflation. So what's  h happening up at the White House is definitely. funneling its way down to these congressional  races. Republicans in a whole lot of trouble. Inflation hasn't been a Democratic issue in the  past. Now it very much is. Correct. Okay. And it's. happened really quickly. It has happened extremely  quickly. Just look. Okay, this is Fox News pond. But it's not just the Fox News pond. Look at the  Marquette University Law School, Paul. Okay, look.

at this. Trust which party more inflation back  in January. Look at that. Republicans actually. had a onepoint advantage. But since the Iran war  started, since gas prices went through the roof, look at this. The Republicans advantage went down  into the ocean. Now we have Democrats ahead by. 12 points. So that Republican lead from one a big  switch to Democrats ahead by 12 points. There was. another poll that I saw that had Democrats  ahead by 14 points, 12 points, 14 points, 15 points. These are the types of lead on which  Democrats can get on top of and they can ride that.

wave to not just a house but a Senate majority  as well. If these numbers do in fact hold, this is a this year thing, a now thing. These are  changes that we've seen over a relatively short. period of time. What about gas prices? Yeah. Okay.  We spoke about gas prices. We spoke about we're. speaking about gas prices. We spoke about how  inflation that lead changed in a New York minute. What's driving it? It is in my opinion those gas  prices because look at the party trust on gas. prices. Trust which party more on gas prices.  You know, you go back to last midterm election.

back when Joe Biden was president. Look at that. A  Republican 17point lead. That is now a Democratic. 13-point lead. That is a 30point switcheroo in the  Democrat's direction. gas prices leading to higher. inflation in the minds of the American public  leading potentially to a big Democratic night. come election night 2026. What might be one of  the reasons some of these candidates are saying, you know what, a little distance might be good.  You know, we have been talking about how President. Trump has historic unpopity going into a midterm  election, but I'm not quite sure that goes far.

enough when looking at the data because when we  break it down the approval ratings by how strongly. people feel, President Trump has the highest  strongly disapproved rating going into a midterm. election on record. Look at this. 50% of Americans  now say that they strongly strongly disapprove of. the job that President Trump is doing. that is,  they don't just dislike him. There's record hatred. for the president of the United States going into  a midterm. The previous record holder was Trump.

going into the 2018 midterm, but then he was only  at 45%. Before that, it was George W. Bush going. into the '06 midterm at 41%. So, right now, what  we're seeing is President Trump with record hatred. towards him going into this midterm election.  No wonder Republicans, at least some of them, are running away from him. Okay. Is there a  converse of this? Are we seeing any changes. among those who say they really really approve  of him politically? You know, President Trump. has been historically polarizing, right? Yes,  there are those people who really don't like him, dare I say hate him, but there have also been  those people who really love him, right? And those.

two counteracting forces have sometimes worked to  the president's benefit. But not anymore. Why is. that? Because take a look here. Okay, the strongly  approve rating here. Strongly approve of the. president of the United States. We're apparently  some something doesn't want me to say share this. Anyway, strongly approve of the president of the  United States. Someone is clicking through here. Here we go. Strongly approve whoever whoever in  the CN system is playing with Harry's wall. Play. with me. Please stop. If you are playing with his  wall right now on the internal computer, stop. You.

can do it after we're done with. Thank you very  much. Okay. Strongly approve of the president at. this point in a midterm election. What you see  here is Trump. Look at this. Just 18% strongly. approve of the job that President Trump is doing.  That's actually less than the average president. going into a midterm at 27%. It's less than Trump  had going into the 2018 midterm at 27%. So Trump. actually has fewer people loving him than what we  see with the average president. So what's going on. here is normally Trump is able to counteract  that strong hatred with strong love, but not.

anymore as that strongly approved number has  actually dipped below what we normally see for a. president going into a midterm election. A number  so provocative it can hardly stand. That's exactly. apparently the number just wanted to jump off the  screen. All right. What about the key swing group. independents? Yeah. Okay. So, you see this 18%  right and you see the strongly approved and you. see the strongly disapprove at 50%. What about  the independents? Look at these numbers. Look at. this independents on Trump with strong feelings.  56% 56% of independents strongly disapprove of.

Trump compared to just 9% who strongly approve  among the group that determines elections in. this country country you see the hatred for the  president of the United States this is what the. voters are saying now north of north of 50% it's  a majority of them and that is a difference what. Johnny be of 47 points in the negative direction  in terms of the strong feelings on Trump from. independence sending a strong signal to be sure  sending a Strong signal and we got through it.