Paxton's poll problem, Vance's 2028 chance & more | Enten roundup

How do you know Ken Paxton needs help right now? You know what I would say? But, you know, in this little mini phone battle between Trump. and Ken Paxton, the Texans you know what they say. They both think. They both think. And Ken Paxton especially thinks he is the worst of the worst. I mean, just look at this key GOP Senate nominee's net popularity. Look who's at the bottom of this list. It's Ken Paxton. He's at -16 points. The worst of the worst. None of these other key Republican Senate nominees are positive. But yet, can Paxton beat some? All in the negative direction?

-16 points worse than in Ohio. -11, minus eight and Michigan minus seven and Maine minus two. In Iowa, Ken Paxton is by far the least popular Republican Senate nominee in a key state. When you look at all the polling Texans, simply put, they hate him. And Harry, I understand you have a record to report this morning. that Ken Paxton has said, I do have a record. You know, this is one of those ones. Congratulations to Ken Paxton. You have done it. You are the least popular Texas GOP Senate nominee this century.

You've managed to do it. And when I was looking at the data, no one else was even in the negative. And you're at -16 points at this point. This is record breaking for Texas. Texas is normally a Republican state. Almost always, the Republican Senate nominee is in positive territory. But Ken Paxton just isn't in negative territory. He is deep in negative territory, deep under the Gulf of Mexico. Or again, in Trump's language, the Gulf of America. So when you said if it's Paxton v Trump, they're both not doing well right now.

Talk about the president in Texas. Yeah. Okay. So you say you know okay. Camp Paxton is in the negative. You know maybe he would want Donald Trump campaigning for him. I mean, maybe to shore up the Republican base. But when it comes to the overall electoral, I mean, just look at this. GOP net approval GOP precedent set up around this time in a midterm election. Look at this. Who's the only negative on the list? It's Donald John Trump at -12 points. That beats the old record. That was Donald John Trump back in 2018 a plus one. It beats that which George W Bush was at plus three way lower than George W Bush.

Of course, the former governor of Texas was around. this point in the 2002 midterm cycle at around plus 40 points. The bottom line is this when you look at the numbers, there is nowhere for Ken Paxton to hide, right? Because if you hug hug Donald Trump, you say, you know, I love you, Donald Trump. Please come campaign with me. Yeah, you'd win over some Republicans, but you would push away independents. who Donald Trump is deeply underwater with. And then you go campaign on your own. And it turns out that a guy who was once the impeached by the Texas State House,

you ain't too popular either. You are, in fact, the least popular GOP Senate. nominee in Texas this century at -16 points, the only GOP Senate nominee ever in Texas this century who is actually underwater. And you are deep underwater, -16 and -12. that that is a duo that leads to perhaps the first Democratic. senator in Texas since 1988, at least in terms of being elected. I will say the president has posted some of your segments before.

I'm curious to see if you'll post this one here. I'm going to say probably not say Vice President J.D. Vance wants to be president. How's it looking right now? Yeah, I want to win the Republican nomination. I do have to say at this point, he appears to be the heir apparent, or at least the closest to it. You could see it right here. Just take a look at the national polling top choices to be the 2028 GOP nominee. Vance is doubling up on the field. JD Vance at 44%, Marco Rubio, who's in second at 21%, and then John Junior down here at 8%.

But he is doubling up on where Marco Rubio is. Yeah, there was some polling earlier in the year. suggesting that Rubio was coming up. But that momentum seems to have slowed significantly. And JD Vance, you know, the other way you can sort of notice. is that Kamala Harris, who obviously was the Democratic nominee. last time around, potentially running again, he's more than doubling up on what. she's getting in the Democratic primary despite the universal name recognition. So this isn't just name recognition. This is actual support ahead of 2020. And this number right here 44%. That's a pretty big number.

It has some significance. This is a very big number. It's very similar where Donald Trump was polling at this point during the 2024. primary cycle. Right. And it's more than that. Just take a look at this okay Paul, that 35%. or more in the early primary polls, in competitive races since 1972, 77% of those went on to win the nomination. So when you're polling north of 35% and JD Vance is absolutely polling north of 35%. among the national GOP primary electorate, it usually converts to success.

And we're talking about a three and four chance based upon the early polling. The early polling does in fact foretell usually success, at least to win a presidential nominee. A pretty good chance. Pretty good position to be in, right? Good. How is the vice president doing with the president's base? Yeah. Okay. So you see these numbers. We see these numbers right here JD Vance with MAGA GOP. Take a look here. The approval rating right here 95% 95%. You can't really do better than 95%. I guess 100% would be better than that.

But the bottom line is this JD Vance has clear support among Republicans at large, and the Republican MAGA base as well, who of course, at this particular point. are the base of the Republican Party, the base of Donald Trump support. And JD Vance gets two thumbs up. A-plus from the MAGA GOP base. He is, I said at the beginning, seems to me to be the heir apparent, to take over that base. and take over the Republican Party, at least at this point, 95% is pretty high. Although the president loves to note that some polls do. show the president with higher than 95% among MAGA voters. Yes, yes.

All right. So what are the prediction markets saying right now. Yeah. Okay. So you know this we've been talking about the primary right. But of course we've been talking about Vance's chances, not just chance to be. the Republican primary, to win the Republican primary, but the chance to be the next president. And take a look at the cash prediction market here. Okay, top choices to beat Trump chances. to be the next president, according to a cash prediction market. Look who's number one on your list. It's JD Vance right up 20% chance. Look it's early days yet. You got to win a primary. You got to win a general election. But that is nearly double Jon Ossoff is a 12% chance and more than double AOC. is in a 9% chance.

So at this point, JD Vance isn't only the most likely. to win the Republican nomination, but also the most likely. to be the next president in that it's a pretty interesting mix, though. It's a very it's a very interesting mix. I think that 2020 8th May be a very interesting cycle. I feel like Donald. Trump is the modern incarnation of Britney Spears because, oops, he did it again. Just take a look at this. A new record low on inflation. The worst net approval rating on inflation or the cost of living. An AP poll yesterday. Look at this 65 points underwater way under there under the Titanic.

Jacques Cousteau could never get to these levels. It's a record low for Trump or any president ever. He's done it again. Ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever. And indeed Johnny B, look at this. You think this -65. Well, just just look at this president's net approval rating on inflation. The 20 worst polls ever on inflation of the cost of living. They're all Donald John Trump since April. He's not only the first president to ever be 60 points underwater on inflation,

the cost of living. He's the first president ever to be 50 points or lower on the cost of living. He is lower than Joe Biden, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, any president you can think of, all of them. He is the lowest ever. And not only is the lowest ever, John, he holds the 20 worst polls ever. No one is even close. If you were to rank them, it'd be like Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump. It would literally be you would do a Trump, then you would just go woo! And then you'd have to go, woo woo woo woo woo.

All right. That's until you hit a Biden. That's a lot of woo. How about with independents. How about with independents. This is the name of the game. Just look at this okay. Trump's not rating on the cost of living among independents in the Ap-Norc poll. You know back in 2024 they asked a retrospective question. Did back Trump in your first term. help or hurt your cost of living among independents? Hurt slightly, outran helped by two points. But look at this. Now look at his net approval rating on the cost of living among independents.

It's -74 points. -74 points. That is a drop way down there. We're talking about a drop of 72 points in the wrong direction among independents. They are what is driving it. But the truth is Donald Trump is underwater. When you look at these polls among Democrats, independents. and Republicans as well, because the cost of living. we're talking about the cost of living. Gas prices are such a big part of that. What are the prediction markets now saying about that? Yeah. Okay. So, you know, I was watching earlier on Stephen Moore, the economist, was on.

saying you know, the, you know, gas prices really hurting President Trump. And obviously Steve Moore ain't a Democrat. And you can just look at this, take a look at their chance at the gas. prices on election Day are above $4 a gallon. Look at this. A month ago, according to the cash prediction market it was a 32% chance. Look at it now. It's well more than doubled. We're talking about a 79% chance this is what's going to be on voters minds. when they're casting ballots. We've seen this in poll after poll after poll the cost of living inflation. Number one issue gas prices saying helping.

And this is the types of numbers. If in fact gas prices are above $4 a gallon, that pretty much guarantee a House majority for Democrats. and may very well lead to a Senate majority as well, with Democrats. winning and a lot of states that Trump won by double digits back in 2020. Right, Harry, thank you very much. So what do polls actually say about Trump winning an election? Now, to be clear, yeah, I think it's the 22nd amendment that says he absolutely cannot do it. He cannot do it. But if he ran again, the idea that he can win by 25% or 25 points.

Yeah, maybe on planet Krypton people. But in the reality world in which we live in here on planet. Earth, President Trump, it's just it's just not real. It's just not real. Look at this. Okay. Choice for president in the 2024 election. You know, he beat Kamala Harris by a point. But we actually have hold the redo of this. We've we've asked folks if you had a chance to vote again how would you vote. And look at this. We got two polls here. All right. We got the University of Massachusetts Amherst, Kamala Harris, this was Paul. at the end of August, wins by six points over Donald Trump.

What about NBC? They asked her earlier in the year. Look at that. An eight point margin. So when you look at these numbers you just go no president Trump would not. win by 25 points. In fact, he wouldn't win at all. And I will note that the underlying numbers of these said that these folks. back in 2024 did, in fact, said that they would have voted for Trump. And at that point they voted for him by a point or two. And now in the redo, you see six and you see eight. Therefore I say maybe on planet Krypton, but not here on planet Earth,

that Trump would win by 20. I mean, this looks like regret here. Yes. Look, this is they voters. They have a regret or two. And we've seen this in poll after poll after Paul. The regret has grown since the beginning of Trump's presidency. What is pushing this, this major shift from 2024? Yeah. What who are the voters who are most regretful of their vote? It's independence. Independents are the name of the game. Independents have dragged President Trump's approval rating down, and they are the ones who are saying, if I get another chance, I am not going to vote for president Trump again. Just take a look here. Choice for the 2024 election among independents back in.

October of 2020 for independents, they supported Trump by two points. Look at this in the University. of Massachusetts Amherst 2026 redo of the 2024 election. If they were asked that, they could do it again. Look at that. Independents supporting Kamala Harris by 18 points. Trump's numbers have gone down. Kamala Harris's numbers have gone up. Among independents specifically, this is a shift of 20 points towards. Kamala Harris away from Donald Trump in this 2024 redo. Independents, they definitely have regrets.

Give us some sense of how long President Trump has been underwater in. in approval ratings. Yeah okay. So you see this 2 to 18 right. You see this one point to six and eight points. The reason why folks are having such regrets. is they really don't like the job that President Trump. is doing in the white House. And look at this. Hello. Okay. Trump's negative net approval rating. This is all the polls and every single poll since March 29th, 2025, he has had a negative net approval rating.

that is 553 days in a row. I remember when this was less than a year, and now we are approaching nearly two years in time, and there is no sign. whatsoever that President Trump's numbers are going in the positive direction. they're actually going further and further into the deep Red sea. And we should be clear, this is not about him running again. No, it's the Constitution says he can't, but it could give you an idea about how people might be feeling. about those who are supporting them. The Republicans.

Exactly right. And President Trump in poll after poll. His endorsement is a net negative for those Republicans. No wonder that Trump is spending his time in red states, and not actually in the swing states of the 2024 election cycle.