Midterm margins, key voter base flips & more | Enten roundup

news about those of us in our 30s. Where is this  crucial age group leaning? What are millennials. saying? I would just say that Donald Trump's  numbers are dropping with millennials faster. than the odds that the New York Yankees actually  make the World Series. This is what we're talking. about. I mean, just take a look right here.  Okay, age 30 to 44. That's your millennial age. group. We're aging, folks. We're aging. Trump's  not a pro. You know, back in the fall of 2024, he was on the plus side of ledger. He was on the  plus side. Look at this. At plus five points. Look at where he is today. He's 36 points on the  water. He's more on the water than the New York.

Yankees favorability in the Bronx right now. Look  at this. This is a 41 point drop for President. Trump amongst the groups that he did historically  well with for a Republican candidate running for. president. Now he is deeply deeply underwater  with a group that he was once on the plus side. of the ledger with. That is just a huge swing.  And I think I'm going to get the same answer. we've been getting for months now. But why? Why?  Why? Why? Why? Well, it's the economy, my fellow. millennial. It's the economy because you can see  it right here. I mean, wow. It's like a mirror.

image. It's a mirror image. It's a mirror image.  He was 36 points above water when asked about. his retrospective approval rating during the 2024  campaign when it comes to the economy. Look at it. now. 37 points underwater. 37 points underwater.  That, my dear friend, what is that? That's a 40 a. 73 point swing away. I think that's about right.  That seems about right. a 73 point swing away. from the president of the United States on the key  issue. The reason he did so well with millennials.

back in 2024 was because they looked back at  the economy during the Trump years and gave it. two thumbs up. But now the Cisco and Eert is two  thumbs down. Two thumbs down moving away from the. president of the United States on the key issue of  the day, the economy. And he is getting absolutely. crushed on it according to millennials. Okay,  that's about him, the president. How about if you. ask millennials about their hopes for Congress?  Yeah. Okay, so I think this is the key question, right? Because Donald Trump, as much as he wishes  that he was on the ballot, is not on the ballot. I.

think a lot of Republicans are happy he's not, but  those Republicans are on the ballot. Take a look. here. Choice for election among age 30 to 44. Look  at this. It was a tie back in 2024. Essentially, it was basically a tie. Pew had him slightly  ahead. The CNN exit polls had him slightly behind, but it was basically a tie. Look at it now. Look  at it now. Look at the polling. Democrats are. ahead by 22 points. That's a 22point shift away.  So this idea that millennials are moving into the. Republican camp, they may have been back in 2024,  but if you look at it right now in 2026, they are.

returning to the Democratic fold. This looks a lot  more like an exit poll among millennials from 2012. than it does look like one from 2024. Democrats  across the border coming in and going into the. Trump den like a lion and taking a bite out of the  support from Trump supporters among Republicans. Take a look here. the median margin in the key  2026 Senate races. Look at this. Among 2024 Harris. voters, Democrats pretty much are holding on to  the Harris supporters. Look at this. Up by 92. points among them, right? Harris won these voters  by 100. But look at this. Look at this. Among 2024.

Trump voters. They are only supporting Republican  candidates by 79 points. So that's a 13point. difference here. And more than that, of course,  remember these 2024 Trump voters, they went for. Donald Trump by 100. So, we're talking about a  21 point decline. These are the types of numbers. that allow Democrats to go into these red states.  Remember, the key Senate states are overwhelmingly. Republican and this is allowing them to actually  win in these states or at least lead in these.

states right now because they are getting such a  large chunk of the Trump base. It's a one for one. shift here when you're leaving from a Trump base  from a Republican and going to a Democrat. You. can see what the problem is there. That's the key  Senate races. What about in the House? Yeah. Okay, Johnny B. So these are the Senate races, right?  Same situations going on nationally, although to a. little bit lesser of an extent. Take a look here.  Okay, the margin of the National House polling. among the 20 2024 Harris voters. Look at that.  Democrats ahead by 91 points. They're basically. all the people who voted for Harris are basically  saying they are going to vote for a Democratic.

nominee for the House. Take a look here among the  Trump voters. It's the same phenomenon. They're. simply put not holding on to the Trump base at  this point. Remember again, Trump won these voters. by 100 points. Now we're seeing a 16point decline  here and a sevenpoint difference here. These are. the types of numbers on which Democratic waves  are built. These are the types of numbers that. lead to blood baths. That's why I said it's like  a lion going into the Trump den and taking a real. bite out of it because these are the types of  numbers that allow Democrats to do so well after.

Republicans did well in 2024. Again, we're talking  about Trump voters, 100% of which voted for Donald. Trump in 2024. What are they saying about one  of the big issues in this election? Yeah, that's. exactly right. Remember, these are 100% Trump's.  They voted for Trump by 100 and now they're only. voting by 84. That's a big decline. And what is  driving it? What is driving this decline? Well, Ken Paxton kind of had it right. You know, look  at look at these numbers. Okay, this is on gas. prices. This is among 2024 Trump voters. Remember,  100% of these folks voted for Donald Trump. But.

in the key Senate state average, look at this. The  net approval rating for Trump, the best you can do. is one point. That is just one point more of Trump  voters approved than disapprove on a gas prices. 100% of these voters went for Donald Trump. And  nationwide, look at this. Among the Trump voters, he's actually underwater. He's underwater. The  lion is dragging the Trump voters underwater and. taking them away from the Republican party. No  president I've ever seen is in a worse position. before a midterm election than President Trump. I  I mean, just look at this. Just look at this. 38.

points underwater. 30 point 38 points underwater.  You go all the way back. You go back to Harry. S. Truman FDR. At this point before a midterm,  ever, ever, ever, at this point before a midterm. election, you're talking about your September,  October polling, the worst I've ever seen is. Donald John Trump. 38 points underwater. I mean,  it's it's, as I said, the worst I've ever seen. It's laughable. I mean, it these numbers are worse  than the Ferris Beer television show was. Okay,

that that show is terrible, by stuns me, stuns  me into silence all the time. Um, back to the. polling. Put it into context. What else? How  does this fit with what everything else you're. saying? Right. So, you see this negative 38 points  underwater. I mean, he's further. I mean, he's way. under the Hudson River at this point, but it's not  the only one, right? I I mean, just take a look. Trump's not approval rating worse than negative  30 points. You have Ipsos, the Reuters Ipsos poll, 33 points underwater. Now, there was another one  last month. He was 34 points underwater. CNM poll. 34 points underwater. The AP North pole 38 points  underwater. the Pew Pole 38 points underwater.

No other president before a midterm election was  even at minus 31. And now we're seeing one, two, three, four, I guess five if you count that  other Ipsos poll as well. And so we're just. seeing across the map and all the polling data  that we are looking at history in the making. here for the unpopularity of President Trump for a  president before a midterm election. And if you're. a Republican who is running for reelection this  term or Republican who wants to join Congress,

this is the headwinds that you have to face. It's  historic headwinds in which you essentially going, "Oh my god, how am I supposed to win with numbers  from a president this bad?" Uh, our wonderful. viewers will likely know the answer to what is  driving this because it has been the same things. driving the numbers for a long time, the economy.  But when it comes to the Pew Pole, take us inside. What is driving why it is so bad? You know, if  you've been watching, we have been drilling in. this message day after day, week after week, month  after month, because it's staring us right in the.

face. And we want to make sure that you understand  what's going on here. And look at this. I mean, independence, the name of the game, the reason  why the last election was so close, but one that. President Trump won over Kla Harris was, take a  look at independence. According to the Pew poll, the Pew Validated Research, look at that. It  was tied. It was tied. Look at my independence. Now look how they feel about President Trump. 57  points underwater. 57 points underwater. You just. never see numbers. I I I I struggle to come  up with the adjectives because you run out of.

them because what we are seeing here is history.  And then you're trying to understand how this is. going to impact Republicans in the midterm. And  at this point, the only say I was going to say. not good. And which is why people question the  president's messaging here when he is the one. saying vote like I'm on the ballot. vote. If you  want to vote, let me let me tell you, Democrats, please pretty pretty please with a cherry on top.  They are saying yes, vote as if President Trump is.

on the ballot because if he is on the ballot, you  can pretty much guarantee that Democrats will take. back the United States House. And you you can also  pretty much say this is why the Democratic odds in. the United States Senate have been going up and  up and up. And that is because this president, as unpopular as he is, is dragging Republicans  underwater. And it is history literally in the. making. We'll see if history become or history in  the making comes on election day for Democrats as. well. They're certainly hoping. But hey, there's  still a few weeks until the election. There is.

still time though people are already they are they  are you know what I remember when there was no. early voting and now there is. It's unbelievable.  Things change in your life so much. When you're. all of 14 years old as Harry Anton is. Uh my  my beard feels like I'm 55. You make me feel. like I'm a thousand. Sarah, if you want to focus  in on one state to know who is going to control. the United States Senate after the 2026 elections,  it is Ohio. So goes Ohio, so goes the Senate. So. goes the nation. And you can really see this quite  well in the cash prediction on because just take.

a look at the chance that the Democrats win. Take  a look here on February 27, just before the Iran. war started, Sheriff Brown was just out of a 50%  chance. Now he's up to a 64% chance. How about for. the Senate as a whole, 41% up like a rocket,  up to 63%. Look at this. 6463. As Ohio goes, so goes the nation. You want to focus on one  state. It is Ohio. Which of course brings us. back to those days of your right when Ohio was so  key in presidential elections and now it's key in.

the Senate elections. Democrats chances go up in  Ohio. They went up nationwide. All right. So the. CNN poll has him up six. Is this unusual for  Sherid Brown lately? Yeah. Okay. So why why is. Sherid Brown's chances going up significantly? How  about this? How about this? Sheriff Brown's last. poll deficit. You got to go all the way back to  June. You got to go all the way back to June. And. that was well within the margin of error, that  particular poll. So our CNN poll is no outlier. It is part of a string of polls in which Sherid  Brown is doing very, very well in a state that.

Donald Trump won by 11 points. He is gaining  ground not just according to CNN, but across. all the polling data that we look at. All right.  So in our poll, Sherah Brown is up six points. Six points seems like a lot. Or is it? Yeah.  Or or is it? Or is it? You know, you see this. big chunk June, that was the last time Sherid  Brown was trailing in a poll. But take a look. here. Look at historically speaking, okay? The GOP  outperformed the Ohio Senate poll average. This is. the average from early October in points. In two  2016, they outperformed in the final results in.

the Ohio Senate race by seven points. How about  2018? Eight points. How about 2022? Seven points. How about 2024? six points. And I'll note, of  course, that sheriff Brown was running both in. 2024 and in 2018. So there is a history in Ohio of  Republicans doing considerably better on election. day than what the polls suggest at this point. And  you talk about that CNN poll having Sherid Brown. up by six points. Well, that was the same exact  sort of difference, right, in which we saw where.

Sher Brown had a lead at this point back in the  2024 campaign and ended up losing by a few points. If this type of shift happens again, well, it's  a very tight ball game in Ohio. You can't take. anything for granted if you're a Democrat running  there. And there's some hope for Republicans given. historic overperformance from the polls were there  at this point to election day. Yeah. History shows. it could still be very, very close. How's the  president doing in Ohio? Yeah. Okay. So, you know, why do we see this? Why do we see that the last  time Sher Brown in fact was trailing a poll was. June? Why do we see that the Democrats chances  are going up in Ohio and therefore the nation?

It's because of this. I I I mean, just look, Ohio  voters on Trump. He carried the state by 11 points. and he has been dragged down in the Ohio River  or Lake Erie, whatever body award he want to do. His net approval rating now down to negative 21  points in an average poll. That's a shift away. from president of 32 points. If Sherid Brown ends  up winning Ohio and the Democrats win the United. Senate, United States Senate, it will be because  of one man in particular more than any other man. and that is Donald John Trump dragging Republicans  down with him as his poll numbers continue to hit.

record lows. About 75% of voters in Ohio told us  that they think that Donald Trump's policies have. increased their cost of living over the last  This is the same exact picture in state after. state after state. Inflation brought Donald Trump  into office and it may sweep Republicans in the. Senate and certainly the House out of it. Kansas  has not sent a Democrat to United States Senate. since 1932. That's 94 years ago. For those who  don't want to do the mental math this early in the.

morning, what is going on? and that is President  Trump is historically unpopular for repres for a. Republican president in the great state of Kansas.  Take a look here. Okay, what are we looking at. here? Republican president's net approval  ratings in Kansas. I absolutely buy the idea. that this race is close because just take a look  at these. Okay, GOP net approvals in Kansas about. at this point in a term. Look at this. George  W. Bush coming off of 911 was at about plus 45. points. Even in 2006, he was still in the positive  territory at about plus one. In his first term, look at this. Donald Trump at plus five points.  Look at how much less popular Donald Trump is.

than he was in term number one at this point. He's  way down in the basement, 15 points underwater. That's a 20 point shift away from the president of  the United States. That is 16 points less popular. than any other Republican president at this point  in term this century. And in fact, while we don't. have the polling data, if you look at the national  polling data, I would say that Donald Trump is. probably at this point in the term the least  popular Republican president probably since, well, Herbert Hoover. Huh. So, you're looking  at this and it's the president's unpopularity.

in Kansas that might be driving part of this. But  Kansas, if it were talking, would say, you know, it's not just you, it's me. Yeah. It's not just  you, it's me. You know, you take a look at this. polling day. You know, hm, I'm not necessarily  sure I quite trust it. But Kansas has actually. been shifting away from the right the last couple  of presidential election cycles. Take a look here. Okay, states more Republican than Kansas. This  is a two presidential election average. You know, there were only seven states that were more  Republican than Kansas in ' 0408. 08212. Look.

at that. Nine states were more Republican than  Kansas. Then 2012, 2016, 12 states. Then 2016, 2020, 15 states. Now there are 17 states more  Republican than Kansas. If you take a look at the. average of the last two presidential elections,  what this essentially means is versus the national. average, Kansas has actually been moving to the  left. It has been shifting away from the right. And in fact, in terms of the state rankings, this  is the lowest ranking in terms of Republicanness. of Kansas in over a century. Kansas, one way to  measure it, is less Republican right now than it.

has been in over a century versus the national  average. This is a really interesting way to. look at it, and this had not occurred to me, and  this is something I think we're all learning right. now. Kansas may be not as ruby red as it once was.  Exactly right. It is still leading Republican but. not anywhere near as Republican as it once was. So  if Kansas could talk, it would say it's not just. you, President Trump. It's not just me, the state  of Kansas, but it might also be a little bit of. him, the Democratic candidate. That's right. Adam  Hamilton, who is doing very well in part because.

Adam Hamilton is popular. Take a look at this.  Okay, key Senate races. highest net favor rating. of any of the candidates that the New York Times  tested is Adam Hamilton in Kansas, the Democratic. nominee. His net favor rating is plus 12 points.  The average candidate that the Times tested was. actually a point underwater. And more than that,  as Johnny B and I were talking about backstage, his unknown is actually pretty high. And the  people who do know him, they actually like him. more than the average Democrat. And so I wouldn't  be be surprised if as those people who are unknown.

that he gets even higher net favor ratings at this  point, he has room to grow and he's already more. popular than the average candidate. In fact, the  most popular candidate in a key Senate race in the. entire nation at this point, at least according to  the New York Times. This is why Senate Republicans. are dumping $14 million into this race to try to  drive this number down. That's exactly right. This. to me is potentially a mathematical perfect  storm. a historically unpopular Republican. in Kansas and Donald Trump and a historically  popular Democratic Senate candidate and Anna.

Hamilton. That may be the equation that gets  Kansas its first Democratic senator in 94.