Kansas could see first Dem Senator in 94 years: Enten & analysts unpack

All right, political tongues wagging this  morning with the latest New York Times. Sienna poll from Kansas. All tied up between  the incumbent Republican Roger Marshall and. the Democrat Adam Hamilton. Kansas has not sent  a Democrat to Washington in nearly 100 years, which is a long time. CNN chief data analyst  Harry is some good math. So why why is this. going on? What are some of the reasons behind  this tight race? Yeah. Okay. So Kansas has not. sent a Democrat to the United States Senate since  1932. That's 94 years ago for those who don't want.

to do the mental math this early in the morning.  What is going on? And that is President Trump is. historically unpopular for repres for a Republican  president in the great state of Kansas. Take a. look here. Okay, what are we looking at here?  Republican president's net approval ratings in. Kansas. I absolutely buy the idea that this race  is close because just take a look at these. Okay, GOP net approvals in Kansas about at this point in  a term. Look at this. George W. Bush coming off of.

9/11 was at about plus 45 points. Even in 2006,  he was still in the positive territory at about. plus one. In his first term, look at this. Donald  Trump at plus five points. Look at how much less. popular Donald Trump is than he was in term number  one. At this point, he's way down in the basement, 15 points underwater. That's a 20 point shift away  from the president of the United States. that is. 16 points less popular than any other Republican  president at this point in a term this century. And in fact, while we don't have the polling data,  if you look at the national polling data, I would. say that Donald Trump is probably at this point  in a term the least popular Republican president.

probably since, well, Herbert Hoover. Huh. So,  you're looking at this and it's the president's. unpopularity in Kansas that might be driving  part of this, but Kansas, if it were talking, would say, you know, it's not just you, it's  me. Yeah. It's not just you, it's me. You know, you take a look at this polling deck. You know,  hm, I'm not necessarily sure I quite trust it. But Kansas has actually been shifting away from  the right the last couple of presidential election. cycles. Take a look here. Okay. States more  Republican than Kansas. This is a two presidential.

election average. You know, there were only  seven states that were more Republican than. Kansas in ' 0408. 08012. Look at that. Nine states  were more Republican than Kansas. Then 2012, 2016, 12 states. Then 2016, 2020, 15 states. Now there  are 17 states more Republican than Kansas. If. you take a look at the average of the last two  presidential elections, what this essentially. means is versus the national average, Kansas  has actually been moving to the left. It has. been shifting away from the right and in fact in  terms of the state rankings, this is the lowest.

ranking in terms of Republicanness of Kansas in  over a century. Kansas, one way to measure it, is less Republican right now than it has been in  over a century versus the national average. This. is a really interesting way to look at it. And  this had not occurred to me, and this is something. I think we're all learning right now. Kansas  may be not as ruby red as it once was. Exactly. right. It is still leading Republican, but not  anywhere near as Republican as it once was. So, if Kansas could talk, it would say, "It's not  just you, President Trump. It's not just me, the state of Kansas, but it might also be a  little bit of him, the Democratic candidate.".

That's right. Adam Hamilton, who is doing very  well in part because Adam Hamilton is popular. Take a look at this. Okay. key Senate races.  The highest net favor rating of any of the. candidates that the New York Times tested is Adam  Hamilton in Kansas, the Democratic nominee. His. net favor rating is plus 12 points. The average  candidate that the Times tested was actually a. point underwater. And more than that, is Johnny B.  And I were talking about backstage. His unknown is.

actually pretty high. And the people who do know  him, they actually like him more than the average. Democrat. And so I wouldn't be be surprised if  as those people who are unknown that he gets. even higher net favor ratings at this point, he  has room to grow and he's already more popular. than the average candidate. In fact, the most  popular candidate in a key Senate race in the. entire nation at this point, at least according to  the New York Times. This is why Senate Republicans. are dumping $14 million into this race to try to  drive this number down. That's exactly right. This.

to me is potentially a mathematical perfect  storm. a historically unpopular Republican in. Kansas and Donald Trump and a historically popular  Democratic Senate candidate in Ann Hamilton. That. may be the equation that gets Kansas its first  Democratic senator in 94 years. Context. We. call this important context. Harry, thank you  very much. Thank you, my friend. The decision. by the leading Senate GOP super PAC to pull  money out of North Carolina and into deep red. Kansas tells you a lot about how Republicans  are seeing this midterm environment. So,

how are they spending that money in Kansas where  the GOP incumbent Roger Marshall is struggling to. fend off his Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton?  Well, we have a look at the brand new ad from the. Senate Leadership Fund. Adam Hamilton isn't a  moderate. He's a two-faced extremist. Hamilton. backs amnesty for illegals. Just like Kamla and  Hillary, Adam Hamilton marched in the streets with. BLM radicals. All right, my panel of insiders is  back. Carrie, what do you think of that message?

very traditional Republican message trying to tie  him to the progressives in his party, Kla Harris, and all the things that try to make him look out  of step with people in Kansas. Well, I think the. reason that Adam Hamilton has put this into a  category, this race we now rate rated as lean. Republican. That is not a place that Republicans  would have used to be safe Republican. Yes. That's. not a place that Republicans thought that they  were going to have to spend money, particularly. pulling money out of a what they thought was a  very competitive state to put in Kansas. But Adam. Hamilton has been a good communicator on trying to  distance himself from the Democratic party. He has.

um sort of set the ground early on in his campaign  talking about how I'm a a megaurch pastor. He does. not have the profile of sort of this woke liberal,  but he also can talk very fluently about faith, which is something that Democrats I mean  Democratic candidates love now or Democratic. consultants now love candidates who can talk about  faith like a normal person in a state like Kansas, which by the way does have some DNA of electing  Democrats statewide. not at the Senate level for. a hundred years, but at the gubernatorial level.  There are Democrats in the state and there are.

there are voters who are receptive to the message  of somebody who's like maybe I have a D next to. my name, but I'm not really a Democrat like that.  That's what Republicans are spending money trying. to define Adam Hamilton as. The question is,  is it too late? And you look at the polls here. about the New York Times poll that came out just  yesterday in Kansas and why is it so competitive? In addition to the candidate quality issue, it is  about the issues themselves. Gas prices, whether. that President Trump has strong disapproval among  likely voters. 56% have a strong disapproval of.

Trump's handling of gas prices. Cost of living  a majority of voters. War in Iran, a majority. of voters. Tariffs all nearly a majority, but  far more than the disapproval rating way higher. than Republicans would like at this moment. So,  it shows you it's the economic conditions that. are giving Democrats a real chance in Kansas.  Absolutely. In Kansas, a major uh farm state, and we haven't seen Roger Marshall split with  the president on the war as sharply as some other.

uh Senate candidates, but we did see him  send a letter to the Trump administration, I think it was a couple weeks ago, asking  to see if there's anything they can do. to provide temporary relief for high diesel  prices, which are probably disproportionately. impacting a state like his. And so you're  seeing him take actions that are, I think, responding to the political reality on the ground  in a state like Kansas. Joining me now, CNN, senior political analyst Ron Brownstein. Uh you  you've got this new piece for CNN that makes the. case that this election is suddenly being fought  on Republican terrain. And of course in your piece. you mentioned Kansas, you also mentioned Nebraska,  uh rural Wisconsin, even Mississippi. I mean,

what does that tell you about the potential  size of this potential Democratic wave? Yeah, I mean look, the key to this election is  uh not only the depth but the uh the breadth. of President Trump's declining approval,  right? So we focus on the depth that is, you know, his approval now is somewhere in  the 30s. It's 10 or more points below his. vote. It's lower than his approval in 2018,  lower than Biden in 22, Obama 10, Bush 06,

Clinton 94. But equally important, Sarah, is the  breadth of the decline. Um it's not only that the. groups that move toward him in 24 are moving  back away. Latinos, young voters, uh, non-ol. non-white voters. It's that groups that have been  pillars of the coalition are wavering. I mean, you look at that New York Times polling yesterday  in those five red states is approval among. non-ol whites generally is only around 50/50.  That's what it is in in in national polls. Um, uh, in 20 even back in 2018, 61% of non-ol whites  approved of his job performance in the in the.

exit polls. You're seeing the rural decline with  diesel prices um and and tariffs disrupting export. markets. And you're seeing decline among non-maga  Republicans. Important in a place like Texas. And. all of this is allowing Democrats to compete on a  on a battlefield that is defined mostly by places. that Donald Trump won. Don't forget there are  only eight House Republicans in districts that. voted for Kla Harris even after redistricting.  And in the Senate, Susan Collins is the only.

Republican that Democrats are targeting in the  state to vote for Kla Harris. So over, you know, overwhelmingly this election is being fought  out on Republican terrain, but the cracks in. Trump's approval, even among the the core of the  Republican coalition is allowing Democrats to get. a foothold there. Look, the Democrats before  they begin to celebrate, what what you have a. warning in there um because of some of the things  you've learned in some of these places for some. of the obstacles that they still face. And if you  look at some of these races, they are so close. It isn't as if there's like a blowout towards  Democrats either. No. Right. That, by the way,

that's what's really interesting, right? I mean,  one thing that's interesting about where we are in. this election is the Democrats feel that they  are expanding the map deeper into Republican. territory. The Democratic Congressional Campaign  Committee today, for example, announced six more. seats that Trump won by astronomical marches that  they're competing in. But while that's happening, it's not like they are pulling away in the places  that have been competitive all along. I mean, again, these are overwhelmingly districts of  districts and states that voted for Trump in.

24. They still have a lot of Republican tilt  in their DNA. I was in Alaska uh earlier this. uh last month, and you know, the best asset that  Dan Sullivan has in that race is the reluctance of. many voters still to give Democrats control of the  Senate. So, Democrats can't um you know, uh put. these red races to bed by any means, particularly  in these red states. But the reality is is that. during Trump's first term in 2018 and 2020, Susan  Collins in 2020 was the only Republican Senate.

incumbent or challenger who won in a state where  his job approval was net negative. And in those. New York Times Senate polls, like other polls, he  was at 41% or below in every one of those states. where he won 55% or more of the vote. That's an  historic uh erosion, if not collapse. And it, you know, it's going to keep Democrats in the  game even in places that seem to have been. drifting away from them. It is all fascinating.  Thank you for your reporting, Rob Brownstein.