Harry Enten's ultimate guide to the 2026 US midterms

Hey there folks, I'm Harry Anon. I look  at hundreds, no thousands of data points. to understand which way the electoral winds are  blowing. And we are just now a few weeks away from. arguably the most consequential midterm of our  lifetimes. And that's why I put together Harry. Anton's ultimate guide to the 2026 midterm  elections so that you can understand every. little nuance there is before the elections. Your  Ipsos, your Marquette University Law School, your. New York Times Sienna College, your Quinnipiac,  your Maris, you say it, you name it. I looked at. it looking for Trump's biggest midterm red flag.  And folks, I think I've actually found it. Now,

let me set the stage for you and how I found  it. Why don't we just talk about Donald Trump's. popularity right now? It has absolutely plummeted  over the course of his second term. Trump's net. approval rating. You go back to the beginning  of his second term. Look at this. He was on the. plus side of ledger. Plus six points. When you  can put it on your hands, you know that it means. something. Plus six points on the positive side of  ledger. But look at how far down he has plummeted. right down into the Hudson River here in New York  City. Look at this. He's 28 points underwater.

That is a shift of over 30 points to the wrong  the red side of the ledger. And the question. of course is why? What has happened? And I had a  few different theories of the case and I want to. take you through them and I dismiss them. What's  the first theory of the case? Well, the Iran war, right? It's been going on for a number of months  right now and you can see that Trump is struggling. on foreign policy. Trump's not approval rating on  foreign policy. You go back to the beginning of.

his term, one two on the positive side of the  ledger. Barely on the positive side. But hey, you'd rather be barely on the positive side than  the negative side of the ledger. But look at. where he's fallen to now. 24 points underwater  in February of 2026, just before the Iran war. started. And look at it now. It's even lower. It's  barely. It's a little bit lower, but it is lower. at 26 points underwater. Nearly a 30point shift  against the president of the United States. So, you might be saying yourself, "Hey, this seems  bad. Isn't this what's driving the negativity.

around Trump dropping him to term two lows in  terms of his overall approval rating?" But then. I went back through the history books, went back  through my mind, and I remembered an election, an election that was 34 nearly 34 years  ago. I can't believe it was that long ago. Remember this. Remember when President Bush,  George HW Bush, for the youngsters out there, there was actually a President Bush before George  W. Bush, George HW Bush's father, he won a war for. goodness sake. They won the first Gulf War against  Iraq. And his foreign policy approval rating,

his net approval rating was on the positive side  of the ledger. Look at this. Going into that 92. election plus 17 points, they beloved him. He  was beloved. He was loved on foreign policy by. the American public. But what happened in that  election? Well, Bill Clinton is what happened. in that election. Bill Clinton beat George HW Bush  by six points despite the fact that George HW Bush. won a war for goodness sake. So, I don't really  think it's foreign policy. It's not the Iran.

war that's truly driving Trump to record lows.  So, then I had another thought process. What's. another big part of his second term? Well, that  is his incredibly hawkish, harsh views and his. detractor's minds on immigration and immigration  has been an area in which used to be again a plus. for him, but now has become a negative. Trump's  not approval rating on immigration. He was plus. seven points. It was one of his best issues back  at the beginning of his second term. But then he's.

red now. But here is the interesting thing. at  the height of that Minneapolis all those agents. going federal agents going into Minneapolis he  fell to a term two low at minus7 points but look. at what's happened despite the fact that his  overall approval rating continues to decline. his immigration approval has actually rebounded a  little bit now at minus4 points so when you look. at this you say okay his overall approval rating  is falling but his immigration approval rating.

is actually climbing a little bit it's probably  not that either. And then I had it. I had the. moment where I go, "Oh, it's so simple. It's so  simple." So Trump's biggest red flag. Look at. this. It was an issue on which he beat Kl Harris  by seven points back in the 2024 election in terms. of who is most trusted. And now, well, wait a  minute. Wait a minute. We minus XX points. Boy,

this is quite the mystery for me. I I I think  I I think I need something to to refresh me. Very nice. Ah, warming me right back up.  What is the biggest red flag? What is it, folks? It's what I thought it was all along. It's  so obvious, so simple. How did I not see it right. from the right from the start? It's inflation.  Of course, it's inflation. It's prices. It's the.

number one issue. Look at this. He went from being  trusted more on the issue by seven points by Kla. Harris. Now he's 51 points underwater. That is  a nearly 60 point switcheroo. It's a mindblowing. switcheroo. The issue that got him elected  and now he's 51 points underwater. This is. the biggest red flag by far for the president of  the United States. And he's losing it even amongst. his own base. And I think his own base, the 2024  Trump voters, they tell the story. Look at this.

Look at this. Okay. Trump's net approval  rating among his own 2024 voters. Look at. this. On the border, he's at plus 76 points in  terms of his net approval rating. Still very, very popular on foreign policy, which we mentioned  earlier on. He's still very, very popular at plus. 50 points. But look at what's happened. This is  his own voters. These are the people who voted. for him back in 2024. He's now, get this, he's  four points on the board. He's on the negative.

side of the ledger on the issue that got him  reelected back in 2024 amongst his own voters, his own voters. This to me is a huge, this is why  I say it's the biggest red flag possible. Now, put in a historic context. Look at this. Look at  this. Okay. President's net approval on inflation. The eight worst polls of all time ever. George W.  Bush, Donald Trump, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton,

Joe Biden, Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter, who  of course his presidency got eaten alive by. inflation. But the eight worst polls ever, they  all they all belong to one man, Donald John Trump, the current occupant of the White House. They  all belong to him and they have all occurred in. the last two months. This this is the reason why  Trump's approval rating has fallen to term two.

lows. This is why it's inflation. It is the  biggest red flag by far. And more than that, more than that, look at this. Look at all  the groups. Now, the font here is really, really small, but take a look at this. Trump's net  approval rating on inflation. Fox tested this. Fox. News tested this. It was negative. That is all the  red in 44 44 out of 45. All but one group that Fox.

actually broke down. It was negative. This is  all the red. Rural minus 43. Independents -71. Age 65 and older minus 35. Trump voters -4. Under  $50,000 income - 58. Suburban -54. Women minus 55, men minus 47. All of these groups are negative.  There is just one group which you might not be.

able to see. It's right here. It's right here.  Look at this in your green. I'm circling it in. green. Very conservative voters. That is the only  group. And I know you can't see it. It's plus 16. points. Even amongst very conservative voters  where he is on the positive side of the ledger, a group that supported him overwhelmingly. This  is the right of the right. He is just at plus 16. points on that issue. But overall m minus negative  negative approval ratings on inflation in 44 out.

of 45 groups tested. Now if you're a Republican  in Congress, you should be running for the hills. given this data. Why is that? Because if I'm  looking at thousands of polls every single day, you know who's looking at millions upon millions  of polls? Democratic operatives. And they're. seeing in the private data what I'm seeing in the  public data. That is the anger against the top of. the top in our government. The president of the  United States is funneling its way down ballot.

to Republicans at large. Take a look here. Trust  which party more in inflation. Now Democrats are. more trusted by eight points. What a switcheroo  from the last midterm cycle in which Republicans. were more trusted by get this 19 points. an over  20 point switch against team red towards team. blue. And independents, get this, an even larger  switcheroo going from trusting Republicans more. by 30 points to now trusting Democrats more by 20  points. My goodness gracious, we're talking about.

a 50 point switcheroo. And this Democratic lead  for an election cycle is historic because again, I'm looking at thousands of polls every single  day. The last time going into an election cycle, Democrats were more trusted than inflation.  You have to go all the way back to 1900. There we go. And 78. My nines look a little  weird, don't they? 1978. Democrats did pretty. good that midterm cycle. But the next cycle  when the wave on inflation went against him,

they lost their majority United States Senate and  Jimmy Carter got swept out of the White House. for. this midterm cycle. Why I say it's such a big  red flag for Donald Trump and the Republican. party is because this is looking a whole heck  of a lot more like the polling from 1978 when. Democrats did well than it's looking like 1980  when Democrats did poorly. And it could sweep. just like it swept Jimmy Carter out of the White  House could sweep that Republican majority out out. of the US House of Representatives and may sweep  them out of the Senate majority as well. Wow,

that was a lot of red flags. But sometimes the  electoral signs aren't so obvious. That's why. you should stay tuned for this next video. We'll  look at the hidden signals to understand which. way the elections this midterm are going to go.  I've determined what the top eight hidden midterm. signals are to know how this midterm is going to  go, whether Democrats are going to take control. or whether Republicans will hold control. And  we're going to look at starting with number eight. What are we talking about? What is our eighth  signal? Published internal polls. You know, every.

day the Democrats and the Republicans, they're  publishing their own polling data. And this year, look at this. 72% of the internal House polls that  have been released have been released by those who. are backing Democratic causes compared to just  28% of the polls that have been released have. been by those who back Republican causes. Now, you  might be saying, why why is this a big deal? Well, it turns out a party will release more polling  data when the polls actually look good for them.

And we see this signal throughout history. I mean,  just look at this. Okay, take a look here. Times. that 70% of the released internal polls were  released by Dems like they were this year. Look at this. 2006, 2018, and the affformentioned  2026. And you know what 2006 and 2018 shared in. common? Well, they were big, huge Democratic  waves. They were huge Democratic waves. Now, that's signal number eight. What about signal  number seven? Signal number seven. Well,

this is one we've seen for the basically the  entire cycle, right? House retirements in 2026. Look at this. Many more Republicans retired  than Democrats. 41 Republicans said bye-bye. See you later. We're done. Peace out. Feel like  somebody in Super Mario Brothers there. Compared. to just 26% of Democrats who decided to call it  quits. Well, you know what happens? You know why. someone calls it quits? You don't tend to call  it quits when you think, "Hey, my side's going.

to win." You tend to call it quits when you  think, "Uhoh, my side's going to lose." And. that's what history tells us because look at these  stats. Okay, midterms when the Dem House seat, this is the Dem House sheet shifts in midterms  since 1930 when retirements were greater than the. Republican party. When there were more Democratic  retirements than Republican retirements, look. at this. Democrats on average lost 27 seats. But  when there were fewer Democratic retirements than.

Republican retirements, there go more Republican  retirements than Democratic retirements. Like this. year on average, look at this. Democrats in fact  gain 15 seats. So again, so far we have two hidden. little metrics that we're looking at, two signals  that I think often get overlooked. And so far, Democrats are two for two. Now, what about moola?  What about money? What about the green stuff? You. know what I'm talking about. I'm talking about  this, baby. Yeah. Yeah. It's raining in here. It's.

raining. It's raining. It's raining. Well, I think  a lot of people earlier this were like, whoa, the Republican party, the National Republican  Committee is vastly outraising the Democratic. National Committee. And in fact, however, this  is what usually happens when there's a Republican. president. Look at the midterm cycle since 1982.  midterms with Republican presidents. Six out of. six times the Republican National Committee  outraised the Democratic National Committee. This is no sort of signal. This is what normally  happens even if the Democrats are being outright.

embarrassed by the Republican National Committee.  I mean, Kim Martin, I know exactly what you're. doing, but bro, it's okay. Maybe, you know, maybe  it's time after this midterm to, I don't know, take a little bit of vacation. But here's what  signal number six actually is. Signal number six, what we really look at is not the parties. We look  at the individual candidates. Are the individual. candidates for one party raising more than the  other party? This is what goes into house models. like those at Vote Hub or Nate Silver or one  that I once made. And what we see here is that.

in fact at the end of the last quarter, Democrats  vastly were outraising Republicans. We're talking. a billion dollars for the Democrats compared  to a little bit more than $800 million for the. Republicans. We're talking uh some quick math  here. What is that? That's about a $200 million. edge for the Democrats. This is a metric that  is very, very good for them. Okay. Democrats so. far three for three. But what about signal number  five? What about signal number five? Okay. Issue.

you say is the top problem? Trust which party  on it? Which party do you trust? Well, in 2022, Republicans held a five-point lead on this  issue. That is the top issue. Of course, most. people said some form of the economy, inflation,  etc. Republicans were more trusted on that issue. Now look at this. Democrats on the issue in which  folks when asked, "Hey, what's your top problem? What's the top problem in the country? And which  party do you trust on it?" You know what they say.

when the pollsters call them up? And there are  still some pollsters who use a phone. They say, "I trust the Democrats more. I trust the Democrats  more on it." And in fact, they're trusting them. by a 10point margin. And you know why this is  important? You know why this is important? Because. look at history. Look at history. Okay, we look  back. We're looking back at all the times when. polls used to be conducted like this or in person  with Gallup. Gallup used to actually conduct its. polls in person. They conducted them in person.  The party trust to more the top problem. One house. in the midterm elections 18 15 of 18 times.  15 of 18 times since 1946. So, of course,

here we go. My buddy Nick, my producer Nick, what  is that issue this year? It's It's inflation, baby. It's inflation. It's moola. It's moola. I  think I've run out of money here. No, I manage. I. always have an extra $2 bill right here. I always  have $2 bills all over the place. So, all right. So far, we've been through five signals, or excuse  me, we've been through four signals. Eight, six,

seven, six, five. And Democrats are four for  four. But what about signal number four? Okay, you know, midterms are about turnout. Yes,  they're about persuasion, but they're also. about actually walking out and going to the  polls or I guess filling out a mail ballot, right? So, number four is party more certain  to vote in the midterm elections. Well, back in September of 2022, Republicans had a  fivepoint advantage on this issue. 1 2 3 four.

fivepoint advantage on this issue. But look at  it now. We flipped the script. We have flipped. the script. If we're reading it, we're reading  it like it's the Iliad or something like that. If it's Odysius, oh my goodness gracious. Nah,  not for me. I'm more of the polling numbers. Now, we have flipped the script. Now, Democrats have a  six-point advantage on the certain to vote metric. This is a Fox News poll, but you could look at  basically any poll and see the same thing. Now, why is this six-point advantage so notable? Well,  go back through history. Woo! We're going to go. back through history. Go back through time,  baby. Yeah. We look at this metric over time.

Dem's current lead in certain vote is right  now the largest. It's the largest Dem lead. It's the largest Dem lead in a midterm election  this entire century. In fact, I'd make a wager. that it's probably the largest lead even going  further back. Democrats are absolutely psyched. up. They are ready to go. They want to take out  the Republicans. And in a midterm in which turnout. is so important, this metric really does tell the  story. Okay, so we're now at lucky number three. I.

think it's lucky seven, but for me, I like lucky  number three. Lucky number three. What is signal. number three going on right here? Well, signal  number three is getting parched. I might need a. soda in a second here. It's party ID. It's party  ID. Are you more likely to identify as a Democrat. or a Republican? Are you more likely to identify  as a Democrat or Republican? And we know that this. is important. Why is that? Because in today's  day and age, about 90% plus of Democrats vote.

for Democrats, 90% plus of Republicans vote for  Republicans. And look at this trend. Look at this. trend in the New York Times. In 2024, just before  Donald Trump won re-election in the White House, Republicans were ahead by two. A year ago, it was  Democrats ahead by one. Now, look at this. It's. Democrats ahead by eight points. Democrats ahead  by eight points. That is a huge lead. That is a. huge lead. And when we look at through history,  right? We look through history, you know what? This is the type of thing that again, Republicans,  call your office. Call your office. These are the.

types of numbers in which majorities are lost  if you're Republicans or majorities are gained. if you're Democrats. Did Dems win the House in  2000 midterms, right? When they led on party ID, the two times that that was true, guess what? They  won the US House of Representatives. When they. didn't lead, when it was tied or Republicans  held an advantage, Republicans won four out. of four times. Democrats won zero zero out of  four times. Okay, so that's signal three. Now,

thank you, Nicholas. A little porch today.  It's diet cream soda. A favorite of mine. Oh, that is good. Thank you, Nick. All right,  I feel the power. Ready to go. All right, we're going to power right through this. Boom.  Signal number two. Okay, this is not so hidden, but it is a it is a it's a secret metric.  It's a secret metric that I really look. at. It's actual votes that are being cast. It's  actual votes that are being cast. Share of the. national primary turnout. Well, in 2022 in the  primaries of the two major parties, Republicans,

they cast the vast majority of the ballots in  Republican primaries. 54% to the Democrats, 46%. But look at it now. It's a completely  different world. It's a different world. I. like that sitcom. I like Lisa Bonet. Very, very  good sitcom. Great theme song as well. Democrats, 55% of the primary votes cast have been cast in  Democratic primaries over Democratic candidates. Compare it to this. Just a 45% for the  Republicans. An eight-point advantage.

for the Republicans closer to a 10-point  advantage for the Democrats now. And again, it turns out that when you look at actual ballots,  that forecast the future that forecast the future, look at this primary turnout, national primary  turnout edge. When a party had an edge in terms of. the national primary turnout, they then went on to  win the US House of Representatives in 2006. True. 2010. True. Republican 2014 Republicans. True.  2018 Democrats. True. 2022 Republicans. True.

They won the US House of Representatives back in  2022. Okay, we've done eight, we've done seven, we've done six, we've done five, we've done four,  we've done three, we've done two, and now we're. coming to number one. Number one hidden metric.  It's just so obvious. It's just so obvious to me. Do you think the country are you satisfied  with the direction of the country or not? And look at this. Number one, satisfied with how  things are going in the US. In February of 2025,

34% of Americans said they were satisfied with  how the country was going. That's not too good. But somehow that number has even gone further  down. It's taken a dive. It is down there with. Jacustoau/ The Little Mermaid combined. It's now  down to just 21%. Just 21%. Even an alien life. form Even an alien life form knows that that 21%  is low. We know it. Oo. Oo, look at that. It pops.

It pops. How funny is that? It pops. Even an alien  life form knows that that is the case. And why. is that important? Nick Catch. There we go. When  the president's a president's party's house shift. in midterm elections, when the average satisfied  is above 40%, which we're not anywhere close to, right? We're at 21%. that President's party  actually gains two seats on average. But when it's. below 40%, the president's party loses an average  of 31 seats looking at midterms since 1982. That.

is not going to cut it for the Republican party.  So we went through 8 76 54 32 and 1. And eight of. the eight metrics really look good for Democrats.  But you know what? We looked at the hidden. signals. We looked at the overlooked signals. You  know what? the signals that are really out there, which are just jumping off the screen. You know  what? They back up. These hidden signals back up. They back up. So, if you stayed with us, we got  bonus slides. We've got those bonus slides. Yeah.

Okay. The not so secret secret signals, the bonus  slides. Well, what's a bonus slide? How about this. one? Just ask people how they're going to vote in  the midterm elections. Just ask them. Demsley in. the generic congressional ballot. Look at this.  Fox, seven points. Ipsos, Reuters, Ipsos, seven. points. The New York Times, Sienna University,  eight points. And how about a very unlucky 13 for. the Republican party according to the Marquette  University Law School. What is that? Five, five,

and three. That's 13-point lead for the Democratic  Party according to Marquette University Law School. poll. Now, this is a lead, an average lead.  When you look at all the polls over the last. month or so, we're talking about 7 8 nine points  depending on how exactly you average the polls. here. Obviously, the average is north of seven  points. And why does that matter? Well, okay, since 1974, since Watergate, since Watergate, when  the Democrats were up by five plus points at this. point on the generic congressional ballot, guess  what? Six of six times in those prior cycles, they.

went on to win the US House of Representatives.  Six of six. I mean, you can't get much better. than six or six. This is people literally telling  you how you're going to vote. But you know what's. driving this? And that is, I guess, not so subtle  bonus slide, the big one, the huge one, the man. that drives all of our politics these days. It  is Donald John Trump. And in midterm elections in.

which you have a president with a minus5 points  or worse net approval like Trump currently has, he's much closer to, let's say, about minus 20  points on average, perhaps even lower in some. polls, 22, 23, 24, whatever, all the way down to  minus 30 points. Did that party lose the House and. the Senate? Well, for Harry S. Truman's Democratic  Party back in 1946, back when I was not yet born, though I do fashion myself as someone that has an  old soul. And the George W. Bush Republican Party.

in 2006, which I think is probably actually the  most analogous to this midterm election in terms. of everything that's going on in this country and  the numbers we're looking at in both both times. Yes, the incumbent party, the White House party  did in fact lose both the United States House and. the Senate. So, those were the hidden signals, but  sometimes it's right in front of you. Less than 1%. of Republican ads are mentioning Donald Trump.  What the heck is going on? Let's dig in and take. a look. Sometimes there's a stat out there so  eyepopping, so staggering, they have to figure.

out what the heck is actually going on out there.  You know, less than 1% of GOP ads mention Trump. in the early part of September, compared to 20% of  all Democratic ads that mention Trump's name. So, is this finally a sign that the Republican base  is abandoning Donald Trump? Look, I'm going to. dig into the data for you. I looked at hundreds,  no, thousands of polls and we're going to actually. find out the real truth as to what Republicans are  thinking when it comes to Donald Trump. You know, when it comes to non-MAGA, this is where we've  absolutely seen Donald Trump's numbers plummet.

into the ocean. Okay, non-MAG on Trump. You know,  in the 2024 election, the non-MAGA Republicans, they favored Trump over Kla Harris by 56 points.  That is wider wider than the Red Sea. But now. his net approval rating in September of 2026,  look at that among non-MAGA Republicans is down. to just plus seven points. That is a shift, my  dear friends, of get this, 49 points away from.

the president of the United States among non-MAGA  Republicans. So his support is definitely not just. ebbing there, but is absolutely crashing  there. And it's more than that because. non-Maga Republicans, look at this, they are not  motivated to turn out and vote in 2026 at all. Okay? Extremely motivated to vote in 2026. Among  Democrats, it's 71%. But look at this. Non-MAG. Republicans just 46 just 46%. That's a difference  of 25 points. That is non-MAGA Republicans are.

25 points less likely to say they're extremely  motivated to turn out and vote. And this is the. type of number that might make you think, "Oh,  Donald Trump is a real turkey along with the. rest of the Republican party when it comes to the  midterm elections." But are they? Well, of course, at this point, if you've been following along  politics, there's a natural question that you. might want to be asking yourself, and that is, but  what about MAGA? What about the Make America Great. Again movement? How are those Republicans feeling  about the president of the United States? And this.

is where we do a little bit of a turn because take  a look at MAGA on Trump. Okay, MAGA GOP on Trump. in the 2024 election versus Kla Harris. He got  99% of the MAGA GOP vote. Perhaps surprisingly, I might have thought it'd be 100% but it was  99%. Compare that to his approval rating now. with the MAGA GOP. It's 98%. That is, there's been  no real decline in MAGA support for the president.

of the United States. He is cool man Jack you  might say when it comes to MAGA GOP. Now you. see this 99 to 98% and more than that these folks  say that they're going to vote for congressional. Republicans come the midterm elections. Again  that's the 99% that Trump got against Kla Harris. Look now in terms of the congressional vote 98%  of them say they're going to be voting for House. Republican candidates. So that support is actually  really holding up strong. It's really really.

strong when it comes to MAGA GOP and Republicans  holding on to that vote. And more than that, more than that, look at this. The certain to  vote say they're certain to vote in 2026. Again, 71% of Democrats say they are certain in fact to  vote in 2026. And look at this. MAGA Republicans. the same. It's sympatico. It's sympatico. So MAGA  Republicans are not just saying that they are. still supporting Trump. MAGA Republicans aren't  just saying they're going to their choice for. Congress is in fact Republicans at basically the  same level they voted for Trump, but they're also.

saying they are going to turn out in very high  numbers, at least comparable to Democrats. Now, this leaves us a bit of a mathematical equation,  right? This leaves us with a bit of a mathematical. equation, but this is a lot of math on the  screen. It's a lot of math on the screen. I I. need a little drink to hydrate myself here. This  leaves us with a bit of a mathematical formula. that is MAGA plus non-MAGA Republicans. What does  that add up to? What does that equal in terms of.

the Republican party? Well, my dear friend Gordon  here is telling me something. Ah yes. Ah yes. And. that is he handed me this note which is about 50  to 60% of the Republican party is in fact made up. of MAGA that is make a make America great again  supporters. Right? So what does this mean? What. does this mean in terms of Donald Trump and the  Republican party? Well, this is a troubling sign.

for Republicans and for Donald Trump heading into  the midterm elections. Trump and the GOP among. Republicans, he got 94% of that vote against Kla  Harris. That is when you had non-Maga Republicans. and MAGA Republicans. Look at his approval rating  now. His approval rating now is 80%. So, in fact, there has been a decline in the support for Trump  among Republicans. It's a decline of 14 points. We've gone from 2024 being the largest GOP margin  in a presidential race in over 50 years to now.

80% support approval for Donald Trump. And what's  so interesting about this, what's so interesting. about this is put in history, right? We're  always, you know, I'm calling back the past. I'm. always calling up the past. You know, I'm using my  landlines here, calling up the past and wondering, okay, okay, where does Trump compare to other  Republicans at this point going into a second. midterm election? Well, it turns out, look at  this GOP president's approval premidterm among. the base September. Trump actually is the worst  of any of the Republicans on your screen. Ronald.

Reagan was at 93%. George W. Bush was at 82%.  Dwight Eisenhower 81%. Donald Trump is no better. than the other two right here. It's within  a margin of error, but technically speaking, he's in the worst shape. He's just at 80%  among Republicans at this point. And Gordon, is that another note that you have for me here? I  think that it is. In fact, right now, if you were. to do the inverse of this or the reverse of this,  GOP disapproval now at 19%, it's actually slightly.

higher than it was post January 6, 2021. Gordon,  always coming in with those notes. Always coming. in with those notes. And you know, Kate is showing  me the times. I always want to make sure I'm not. speeding too much, but I actually feel really good  about this. We got a good chunk of things that we. still got to get through here. And it's going  to teach us a lot of stuff. Now, I would argue. though the biggest problem isn't just the decline  in the overall approval ratings. It's the strongly. approved that is the people whose the Republicans  whose hearts are pounding for the president of the.

United States, right? They're really going fast.  Republicans traditionally have loved Donald Trump. But look at this. GOP strongly approved of Trump.  At the start of 2025, it was 71%. Look at where. it is now. It's just 47%. That is a decline of  24 points. That's a decline of 24 points. That. is Republicans. Like 80% is still a pretty good  number, even if it's significantly down. But the. ones who truly love Donald Trump, the ones who  would go, you know, belly over the hot coals,

right? Belly over the hot coals. Those folks  have started not to be as large a portion. And. now they are a minority of the Republican party.  But the big question is why, right? Why? What is. going on? What is cooking? And you know, one of my  favorite little things always to plop out here is. my wallet. I mean, the wallet is insane. And today  it's just absolutely filled with $5 bills. And I. think that this will give you an idea of what is  going on here. What is going on? These $5 bills.

Well, look at this. GOP Republican the Republican  net approval of Trump on inflation. Putting away. this money here because now we got the inflation  on the screen. You know, a retrospective approval. rating back in 2024. Look at this. Donald Trump's  net approval rating. I just love a tennis ball. Was plus 68 points. Now it's been kicked away,  kicked downward. Now it's just plus three points. That is a decline of 65 points on the net approval  rating for Donald Trump on the issue of inflation.

that got him into the White House in the first  place is now a big reason why the Republicans. are in fact at least some of them abandoning the  president of the United States. And of course, one of the major drivers of this this 65 point  decline. How about this? Look at this. Trump. net approval fuel and gas prices in June of 2025.  Look at this. It was + 51 points. Look at it now. -2 points. -2 points. That is Trump is underwater.  He's swimming. He's swimming with the deep in the.

deep blue sea. And oh, I guess as Kate says,  more money, more problems, right? More money, more problems. Swimming in the deep, or should I  say red sea at minus 12 points. He is underneath. the straight up homoos when it comes to his  approval his net approval rating on fuel and gas. prices. And when you put it all together, right,  the real question is what does this mean for the.

midterm elections? Well, look, the vast majority  of Republicans are still going to vote Republican, but any ebbing of that support, any ebbing of  that base is a big problem for Republicans given. how closely divided our politics are right now.  Right. So, choice for Congress margin by party. Democratic voters, they say that they're going to  support Democrats by a 95 point margin. But now. look at Republican voters. That's an 87 point  margin. These are the types of differences on.

which waves are built. This 8 point difference.  Yes, I can still do math. Eight point difference. is waves are built in which Republican majorities  become Democratic majorities. And look at this. My. dear friend Gordon is telling me that a majority  a major sorry not a majority a little bit more. than 10% a little bit more than 10% depending on  which poll you look at I think the Fox News poll. was 14% I think it was 14% of non-MAGA Republicans  are voting voting for Democratic candidates and.

that's an absolute killer that's an absolute  killer for the Republican party heading into. the midterm election but it's more than just a  choice for Congress right it's more than just. a choice for Congress It's whether they're going  to show up. And this, I think, kind of gives the. game away. Traditionally speaking, Republicans are  the ones who are more likely to vote in midterm. elections. Now, Democrats have are six points more  likely to vote in 2026 than Republicans. You go.

through all the record books, go through all the  polls that you can find, you will see that this. is the largest dem lead in terms of certainty to  vote on record premidterm in the 21st century at. this point in the midterm cycle. This is a huge,  huge shift from what you normally see. So, fewer. Republicans are supporting Republican candidates  and more than that, fewer of them say that they're. going to show up and vote. These are the types of  numbers that if you're a Republican, I would 100%. be calling your office. Or if you prefer a modern  phone, maybe you want something like the Oh,

wait a minute. No, this one might actually be  older. Regardless, but here's the other thing. that I think is going on. What is the other big  reason why Republicans less than 1% of their ads. are featuring Donald Trump compared to about 20%  of Democratic ads? Well, it's time for my favorite. part of this and that is the bonus slides. The  bonus slide section. What else is going on? Well, you got Democrats, you got Republicans, but  what about independents? Right? As Republican.

lawmakers and those who want to become Republican  lawmakers are going out and meeting the voters, they may realize that Republicans are less likely  to support Donald Trump. But more than that, they realize independents are less likely to  support Donald Trump. Look at these numbers. here. You may have seen these before, but they are  just absolutely astounding to me. Pure independent. voters, that is those who don't lean towards  either party. In the 2024 election, Trump won. him by 15 points over Kla Harris. Look at his net  approval rating now. His net approval rating now.

among pure independent voters is minus 71 points.  That's an 86 point difference. That is a huge. difference. And the same thing that is bringing  Trump's approval rating down with Republican. voters is what's impacting him among independent  voters. You can see it here. I mean, it's the. economy. It's the economy. Pure independence.  Trump in the economy. Look at this. In the fall. of 2024, Donald Trump among pure independents was  trusted more to handle the economy than Kla Harris. by a 22 point margin. His net approval rating  now is minus 77 points. It's - 77 points. Okay.

And that's a difference of a very unlucky 99 if  you are Republicans running for the House of the. Senate. No wonder why so few Republicans want  to mention Donald Trump. Because when it comes. to again the wallet, I think I still have some  money here. I do, man. I really have a lot of. fives in here. I don't know what it is. I guess  I really just like Abraham Lincoln or something. like that. No other bills except maybe a lucky  two. I love my $2 bills. 99 points. And what's.

driving that at this point? What's really hurting  Donald Trump? Well, it's the gas prices. It's the. gas prices. Pure independence on gas prices and  Trump. The independent voters. Pure independent. voters. Eight. It's eight. It's just 8%. It's  just 8% 92% 92% that is more than nine in 10 pure. independents disapprove of Trump on gas prices.  You put that together with his negative net.

approval rating on gas prices among Republicans  and it makes a mathematical formula that makes a. whole heck of a lot of uh uh uh sense. It  makes a whole heck of a lot of sense. So, the Republicans aren't mentioning Donald Trump.  Well, there's a pretty gosh darn good reason. for that. Here's why the Democrats are in their  strongest position in decades. I dare say it's a. historic position heading into a midterm election.  And if you stay tuned till the end, we'll talk.

about Donald Trump and how he's in a historic  position as well and how that is fueling Democrats. in the midterm opportunities. But let's start  off with the economy because as Jimmy Carville. is fond of saying, it's the economy stuper. In  the case of you, the audience, it's the economy, smarty pants. And this number really just jumps  off the screen because take a look here. When you. poll Americans on how they feel about the current  and future economy, we get the worst ever consumer. sentiment ever. And this measure has been taken  since the mid 20th century. And of course, we are.

now in the 21st century. It is now, get this, 38%  since the start of Trump's term all the way back. in January of 2025. Just a massive decline. And  this is fueling Democrats. It's fueling Democrats. on the most simple of questions. that is you  identify as a Democrat, Republican, independent, etc. And when we allocate those independents, look  at this to the Democrats, Republicans. Democrats. right now have a 13point lead. A 13-point lead  on Republicans on this most basic of measure. And. when we look back at prior midterm cycles at this  point, this 13-point lead is bigger than any in at.

least 20 years. It even beats 2006 when Democrats  easily took back the US House of Representatives. and gained six Senate seats, which if it happened  this year, Democrats would be, "Yeah, that is. perfect for us. We would take back the Senate as  well." Now, when you look at this party ID lead, this is fueled in part by the simplest of  questions. What's the most important problem. the country is facing in your mind? And who do  you trust to solve it? Well, right now, Democrats,

hello. It's that same 13 points. It's that same  13-point lead that Democrats have over Republicans. on which party they trust more to handle the top  issue. And that, look at this. This really tells. the story. Look at 2022. Republicans were trusted  more by 11 points. More more by 11 points. This. is the inverse of that. This lead, this 13-point  lead. Look at woo this green line. This is very. similar to what we saw all the way back in 2006,  which I said is exactly what Democrats want to.

happen, right? Take back not just the House, but  take back the United States Senate as well. These. figures very similar and this very much unlike  anything else on your screen. But when you put. it all together, the simplest of questions, who  you going to vote for, Democrats or Republicans. in the midterms? Well, what are we dealing with?  Well, at this point in midterm cycles, Democrats. right now have a 7-point advantage. And that is  again the strongest that they have had. You got.

to go all the way back to 2006 when Democrats  held an 11-point lead. But this seven points, look at this. It's more than double more than  double what Democrats had in 2018 when, of course, they were able to take back the US House, gaining  about 40 seats, maybe 41 depending on how you. measure it. But the bottom line is you don't have  to worry yourself with the details. That's my. concern. But Democrats have a clear advantage on  that. Now, I know what you're saying. I know what. you're saying. Hey, Republicans have been doing  all this redistricting, right? Especially in the. South as of recent. Well, this seven-point lead,  well, it overcomes, even with the redistricting,

it overcomes that barrier because take a look at  Democrats in the National House vote margin. Right. now, they're lead seven points. What is needed?  What is needed in order to take back the US House. with redistricting? You need only a three-point  advantage. You need only a three-point advantage. Hold on. And I'm getting a little parched  right here. I'm getting a little parched. Maybe someone could hand me a soda. What? What?  Ah, there it is. You know, last week we we were. going into the colas or cola like I don't know  what Dr. Pepper exactly is. This is anything but.

that. This is an A&W zero sugar cream, which  is honestly one of my favorites. Let's take a. Oh, yeah. That vanilla cream goodness really,  really does stretch out. One more for the road. Fantastic. Anyway, as I was saying, Democrats  right now running well ahead of where they need. to be even controlling for redistricting in terms  of the US House vote. Now, the other key factor,

right, is it's one thing to have a lead,  but if you're not going to show up and vote, what difference does it make? And this tells the  story. Absolutely certain to vote in November. Democrats, hey, 75% of them, when you include  the leaners, say that they are absolutely. certain to turn out and vote in this midterm  election. Republicans, it's just 67%. Now, this is an eight-point advantage, which is  very, very important because essentially. what that means is you can take that house lead  that Democrats have, and if the likely voters,

the actual voters match this, absolutely  certain to vote in November, that means. that lead would be even larger. Would be even  larger. I feel like I'm in the movie Airplane. larger. Anyway, I'm not sure if that's exactly  quite right, but it's how I remember in my head, but this eight-point lead is historic. It's  historic. This is why I keep saying that. Democrats are in a historic position heading  into the midterm elections. And it is because. of this. Take a look here. Okay? Leading and  certain to vote premidterms about this point.

in the cycle. You'll notice a lot of the other  slides had a lot of Democratic numbers on there, right? This one is mostly all red. That is  that's because Republicans have historically. been the ones who are more likely to turn  out and vote. But as that Democratic anger. has risen with what's going on in Washington, as  the coalitions have changed, as the Democratic. coalition has become more tilted towards college  educated voters who are more likely to turn out, this is the first midterm cycle at this point in  the cycle that I could find in which Democrats say.

they are more likely to turn out and vote than  Republicans. So again, that is supercharging. That is supercharging what that Democratic lead  actually is on the generic ballot. That seven. point lead might actually be 8 n 10 points  when we're talking about likely voters. Now, at the beginning of this segment, I teased that  we're going to talk about Donald Trump, right, and how he is supercharging this. Well, one way  in which Donald Trump is absolutely supercharging. this is when you just look at his ratings. Look  at this term two Trump approval rating is low.

All of these within the last two weeks, at least  at the time that we taped this wonderful little. thing. If you're watching it later on, I can't  promise, you know, I can do a lot of things, but I can't actually bend time and gravity  and space, etc. Look at this. Quinnipiac 34%, Ipso's 35%, New York Times 37%. CBS News 37%. Fox  39%. The bottom line is across the board, Donald. Trump is at historic lows for his second term. And  all of them sub 40%. Now, why is this sub 40% so.

important? Because who are the other presidents  who are sub 40% at this point in their second. term? Well, there are only two that I could find.  Only two that I could find. Richard Nixon in 1974, which of course was the height of Watergate. You  had George W. Bush when of course the Iraq war was. absolutely draining on him back in 2006. Both of  these cycles, well, you know what they featured?

You know what they featured? They featured massive  Democratic gains. 2006, we mentioned it before, it keeps popping up in all these. That's a very,  you know, correlation isn't necessarily causation, but in this case, Democrats absolutely love  that correlation. And of course, in 74, Democrats had massive gains in both the Senate and  the US House of Representatives. And of course, then Jimmy Carter was able to take back the White  House two years later. Will a Democrat take back. the White House two years, two and a half years  from now? We're not to the midterms quite yet.

Who's really to say? But at this point, these are  the types of historical comparisons that Democrats. absolutely have to love. So, those are the reasons  why Democrats are in such a good position. But. what happens if they actually do the ultimate and  turn Texas blue? Here are the consequences. What. if James Talerico actually does the impossible  and turns Texas blue? What does it mean for 2026? How does he do it? And what does it mean going  forward? Well, if James Talerico actually wins in.

Texas, get this, he gives Democrats a 78% chance  of winning the United States Senate. Basically, they would be very, very close to doing  so. But why? Why would it be the case that. Democrats would be so close to doing so if James  Telico wins in Texas and turns Texas blue? Well, just take a look here. Okay, the most likely seat  to determine control of the United States Senate, it's Texas. It's Texas because Democrats need to  flip four seats. They need to flip four seats. And guess which seat is number four most likely to  flip? It's Texas. It's Texas. Look at this. James.

Telerico has a 70% chance of winning in the great  state of Texas compared to Ken Paxton who has a. 30% chance of winning in the state of Texas. And  I will note as Telerico's chances have been going. up and they have been going up, Democrats chances  of winning control of the United States Senate, they've also been going up. Going up like  a rocket. But of course, it's always a roll. of the dice when it comes to these Senate races.  So, if James Tallerico does in fact win in Texas.

and Texas turns blue, what does it mean? What  does it mean for money, money, money? You know, if you're looking at all of the different metrics  so far for the United States Senate in the races, what you see is the one big Republican advantage  they have is outside spending. And you see it in. Texas. I mean, look at these numbers. My goodness  gracious. You got to put on some shades to. understand these numbers because they are really  truly eyepopping numbers. Republicans right now,

Texas outside spending from September onward and  ad spending. Look at this. $167 million million. dollar. Compare that to Democrats. The outside  spending, look at this. Only $6.8 million. What. is that a difference of? It's nearly a difference  of 160 million with an M. But here's the thing. Republicans have all that outside spending  in Texas, but it's going right up against. the individual candidate spending. So you see  that $160 million advantage or nearly there.

in. And look at this. The Texas Senate candidate  spending. That is the individual candidates. How. much are they spending? Look at James Terico. He  is absolutely crushing. He is absolutely crushing. Kemp Paxton. I mean, Kemp Paxton should probably  get on the phone with some of those folks and say, "Hello, I need money. Hello. That's why there's  all that outside spending because James Telerico, $31 million compared to Kemp Paxton. What is  this? It's $352,000." No, that is not a misprint.

He's not even in the millions in terms of the ad  spending. He's in the hundreds of thousands. So, James Telerico has a $31 million advantage. And  the question is, if in fact Texas does turn blue, what does that mean? Outside spending versus  candidate spending, it means that candidate. spending overtakes outside spending. And that  means so much for the electoral map because the. trends that we're seeing in Texas, well, they  go nationwide. They go nationwide because look.

at nationwide. Okay, national spending leader  from September onward in candidate spending. Look at this. Democrats have the advantage. $49  million are there and about. But look at the. outside spending. Again, these are just they're  outside. They're outside my eyeballs. I mean, literally jumping off the page. They have  an advantage of $378 million. This is the. key Republican advantage. But if Democrats can  beat it back in Texas, then they're likely to. do so nationwide. Of course, that isn't the only  lesson. if Texas does in fact turn blue. You know,

one of the things that we've been talking about  so much when I talk with my friends, and yes, I have a very nerdy group of friends,  is can we actually trust the polls, right? Because back in 2024, Donald Trump vastly  outperformed his polls, right? At least the polls. that were on from September, right? September  turned to October. And you know what? Right now, what we see is look, if the 2026 Senate map  actually matches the polling, Democrats, hey,

hey, hey, hey, we're doing really well. We're  calling up all of our friends are saying, "Yes, yes, we've done it." Because Democrats would be  in the Catbird seat, 53 seats to Republicans 47. They'd flip Ohio. They'd flip North Carolina.  They'd flip Iowa. They'd flip Alaska. And yes, they would turn Texas blue. So, if Texas  turns blue, if Texas does in fact turn blue, what would that mean about the polling misses?  Well, it would mean that maybe they're not going.

to happen because take a look here. In 2024, GOP  outperformed their se September polls by in the. major statewide races. In Iowa, it was nine. In  Texas, it was seven. It was seven. In Ohio, it. was six. In Michigan, it was 1, two, three, four,  five. Yes, I can count to five, baby. We did it. We did it. And if we in fact do have these same  exact overperformances from Republicans, well,

this 5347, what does that turn into? Well, it  turns into boom 5149 Republicans because Michigan, that would go from blue to red. How about Texas?  That would go from blue to red. Iowa, the same. Ohio, the same. So, what happens in Texas could  very well tell us what is going on nationwide. Because if Texas turns blue, it means that all of  this red right here, well, maybe the polls would.

actually indicate that they would turn blue. But  of course, if Texas turns blue, that's not the. only thing that it would tell us, right? So, it  would tell us a lot about the Republican coalition. because if Texas turns blue, it would indicate  that MAGA can't win without non-white voters, without voters of color. Because one of the key  shifts, one of the key shifts that we saw in 2024, the reason why Donald Trump won a second term  was because of non-white voters. Look at this.

From 2020 to 2024, the presidential margin,  the shift among white voters, look at this. Democrats actually gained a point. They actually  did a point better among white voters. But what. happened among non-white voters? Look at that.  Republicans gained 14 points. This is why. Donald Trump won a second term. It was non-white  voters. It was non-white voters. But guess what's. happening in 2026? Non-white v voters are turning  Donald Trump and the Republican voters upside.

down, inside out in the great state of Texas. You  can see it here. Look at this. Okay. Margin with. non-white voters in Texas in 2024. Kla Harris won  them by 11 points. She won them by 11 points. Look. right now. Look right now in the latest polling  data that we have. James Taler Rico is winning. among voters of color, non-white voters by 39  points. What is that? My mathematics say that.

that is a 28 point shift. Is a 28 point shift. If  in fact James Taler Rico is able to win in Texas, what would this indicate for the rest of the  electoral map? Because when we look at non-white. voters, right? We look at non-white voters, we see  that the Sarah citizens, look at this in Texas, they're 51%. If James Terico wins in Texas,  they're likely to also win in you can kiss. a goodbye. Georgia Senate, see you later. It  is a huge a huge caution sign. wet floor you.

might slip on the way out if you're a Republican  running for the United States Senate in the South. And you can see that other states, look at this.  North Carolina, 34% of the citizen population is. non-white. How about in South Carolina, it's 32%  of the population. Oh, my friend Gordon wants to. pass me a note. We'll take a look at this in a  second. Sh. You're going to have to stay tuned. So, North Carolina, Georgia probably off the board  in addition to Texas. And then I think Democrats. could actually be competitive in South Carolina.  And of course, South Carolina hasn't elected a.

Democrat to United States Senate since 1998 when  Fritz Hollands, who had a fantastic Charleston. accent, won re-election. He always won re-election  in South Carolina. Let's take a look. Ah, yes. My dear friend Gordon wants to point out that of  course in Texas there's a lot more going on than. just non-white voters. How about this? How about  this? Texas evangelical voters. Texas evangelical. voters. If you can't read it, Trump won him by 73  points back in 2024. Greg Abbott, who's running.

for the governorship of Texas, is leading him  by 62 points. How about white evangelicals? Kemp. Paxton, though, only winning him by, get this,  only winning them by 48 points. Only winning. him by 48 points compared to Abbott's 62 points.  In other words, maybe scandals do matter. Maybe, maybe, maybe. It turns out that white evangelicals  do not want candidates who in fact leave their. wives. He's winning, but they don't even like him.  They don't even like him. His favorability rating.

is only plus 14 with white evangelicals. So, it  turns out that scandals may actually matter. And. this is something we've seen in the polling data  going forward. Maybe Republicans aren't going to. be nominating candidates who are scandal plague.  Who are scandal plague going forward. Now, I will. say this. This has definitely taken a little bit  of energy out of me. So, it's time for drink. I. don't know what the heck this is. Let's try it.  H. Interesting. Not sure I necessarily like it, but whatever. It's a bubbly drink. It's fine by  me. It keeps me hydrated. But what else? What.

else matters? If in fact, Texas turns blue. Well,  you know what? We're not just talking about 20. 26. What about going into the future, right? What  about going into the future? We really we really. want to take the peel off of this banana. That's  what we really want to do. If Texas turns blue, the 2028 presidential race, that's pretty good.  What does it mean? What does it mean if Texas. turns blue in 2026? Well, you know what? The  last time Democrats actually won a Texas Senate.

race was back in 1988. The last time they won  a presidential race was 1976. Oh my goodness. gracious. James Earl Carter was the last Democrat  to carry Texas in a presidential race. And you. know what? Get this. GOP presidents who would have  won without Texas in the last 35 years. This is. the easiest counting of all time. It's just one.  It's just one. If you're a Republican, you really.

do need to win in Texas if you want to be elected  president. You really do need to be What was that, Kate? Who is it? Who is it? Was actually Donald  Trump. It was actually Donald Trump. That was who. who did it, but he barely did it. He barely  did it. He barely got over the 270 electoral. mark. But basically, if you're a Republican,  you need to be able to win in Texas if you're. going to win the presidency. And you know what?  That's even more the case going into the future. because take a look here. Texas electoral votes  by decade. In n in 1980s, it was 29. In the 2000s,

look at this, 34. In 2022, that is this decade,  40. The projection for 2032 is 44. Texas is. becoming more important. If all of a sudden if  Texas goes blue, if Texas goes blue in 2026, much better chance then that would probably go  blue in 2028, which would be a downright disaster. A downright disaster for Democrat for Republicans  and California and New York, this is what this is.

notes that I get. California and New York of  course are losing seats. Texas is gaining. So. Texas taking on added importance. Thank you Gordon  for the note. Now, what is reason number five? Oh, it's my favorite. It's the bonus round. Oh, yeah.  We We'll come up with a better theme than that. If. Texas turns blue, what does it mean going forward?  Well, one of the questions, and we tackled this. last week, right? Are Republicans actually turning  against Donald Trump? Well, in our bonus round,

I would say this. If Texas turns blue, and that  means the United States Senate is likely to turn. blue, it means that Republicans had a terrible  midterm election, right? They lost control not. just of the House but of the United States Senate  as well. And you know when Donald Trump hit. basically his low point, his low point in the last  five years when it came to his popularity rating, it was after the GOP's subpar 2022 midterms. This  is just a Quinnipiac poll on your screen. Look. at this. Lowest opinion of Trump among voters in  seven years. In seven years. MAGA. The Republican.

base is all about winning. When all of a sudden  that wonderful clothing that Donald Trump wins. that he struts around in, right? He struts around  and I'm a winner. I'm a winner. When all of a. sudden Republicans lose, the idea, the veneer  that Donald Trump is a winner, it disappears. And you can see in the polling data, and it's  not just Quinnipiac, take a look here. Okay, Trump's favor rating with the GOP post the 2022  midterms. Well, his favorable overall was 66%. Of.

course, he got about 95%. He got about 95 or 94%  of the vote back in 2024 among Republicans. So he. was significantly lower than that. Way way down  there. And his very favorable rating, his very. favorable rating was 39%. Airgo well less than a  majority of Republicans actually viewed him very. favorably after the Republicans had a subpar 2022  midterm. Would the same thing happen after 2026?

Look, I don't know the answer to that question  necessarily, but what I do know is it would be. the best shot so far for those who are hoping  that the GOP actually breaks away for Trump for. it to actually happen. Boy, those were a lot of  ripple effects if Texas turns blue. But of course, I got to ask the question a lot of you are asking.  What if the polls are wrong? Well, let's see the. chances of that actually happening. What if the  polls are wrong? Oh my goodness gracious. Oh, the humanity. So, what if the polls are wrong?  How likely is it? who's likely to benefit and hey,

are the polls actually getting worse over  time? And we're going to count it up from. the least likely side to benefit if the polls are  wrong to in fact the most likely outcome when it. comes to the polls and how accurate they are. And  we're going to start off with the 20% probability. chance that the polls underestimate a side by  greater than two points based upon history. And who is the side that gets at the 20%? It's the  chance that the polls underestimate the Democrats. the Democrats, a 20% possibility based upon  history dating back to 1998. 20%. You say, "Oh,

the polls always overestimate the o overestimate  the Democrats. They always underestimate the. Republicans." Not always. Not always. When we  look through history, look at this. Okay. The. Dems were underestimated by how many points? Well,  in 1998, they were underestimated by four points. That was Bill Clinton's impeachment year, right?  The leadup to the impeachment, etc. Monica Gate. In 2012, Barack Obama had a massive benefit. The  polls underestimated him by three. And what about. in 2025, those gubernatorial races? That was just  last year. The polls underestimated the Dems. Not.

by one, not by two, not by three, not by four,  not by five, but by six points on average. My. goodness gracious. And indeed, you can see it.  Just look at the gubanatorial polls. Take a look. here in New Jersey. The polls underestimated  Mikey Cheryl by eight points. Way down there. just off of Per Per P P P P P P P P P P P P P P  P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P. P Perth Amboy. My goodness gracious. Yes, I got it  out. Perth Amboy. Sometimes difficult to say, but. just off of Perth Amboy, way down into the water,  they underestimated the Democratic candidate for.

governor. Now the governor, Mikey Cheryl by eight  points. How about in Virginia governor? Look at. that. Abigail Spamber, she was underestimated  by five points. And so we saw a six-point. underestimation on average for the Democrats in  2025. in fact was the biggest off-year undershot. of Democratic candidates this century. My goodness  gracious. Maybe that'll happen in 2026. We'll just. have to wait and see. But one of the things that  we saw in 2025 that we see in 2026 is remember.

off years and midterm elections, they're about  turnout. They're about turnout. That certainty. to vote. So why would the polls underestimate  the Democrats? Well, maybe we just have too. many voters in these polls because look at this.  say certain to vote in the 2026 midterm elections. Look at this. 79% of Democrats say they're certain  to vote compared to just 69% of Republicans. This. is the biggest dem edge on this question at this  point in midterm cycle ever. I went back as far as.

you possibly could. And more Democrats say they're  certain to vote at this point in a cycle than. Republicans. That relative difference, the largest  on record. So you say to yourself, hey, maybe the. Republicans simply put aren't going to turn out.  And that would be a big reason why the polls might. in fact underestimate the Democratic candidates.  Now, what would this mean? What would this mean. if the polls in fact were underestimating the  Democratic candidates? Well, why don't we look. at the Senate map? Okay, the 2026 Senate, this  is the result. If the polls underestimate the.

Dems by over two points, well, you see it right  down here in the corner. Look at this. you would. get woo 53 Democratic seats compared to just 47  Republican seats. If you see that underestimation. of Democrats by over two points, keep in mind  relative. I'm not talking like a 15 point. Democratic. We're talking two, three, four points,  right? This would mean a Democratic flip in Maine. Let's see if we can get this. No, we're not  going to get the map going here. Hold on. There.

we go. What about now? There we go. We got that  Democratic flip in Maine. We got that Democratic. flip in Ohio. We got that Democratic flip in North  Carolina. How about Iowa? How about Texas? And how. about all the way down there? Actually, all the  way up there, right? Alaska flips as well. So, that would lead to Democrats getting 53 Senate  seats, Republicans 47 Senate seats. And that would. be a massive blue wave. That's what we're talking  about. We're talking about a wave that goes all. the way to the north from the northeast all the  way to the north, far northwest in Alaska. But.

it's not just on the Senate side where we could  see this underestimation of Democrats leading to. them being I don't know, let's see, number one.  Number one. This would be the Democrats were. number one. That's the We don't want the middle  finger up for being number one. We want that index. finger up for being number one. What about on the  House side? Okay. If polls underestimated Dems by. let's say greater than two points, they would  win, get this, two at least 240 House seats.

That would be a huge huge wave. We're talking  about a Democratic gain likely of north of 25. seats. It would be a massive night form if in fact  the polls underestimated the Democrats like they. did in 2025, for instance. Of course, that's  one side of the out. What's the next highest. probability? Well, perhaps it's not so much of a  surprise. Hello. Chance the polls underestimate by. greater than two points. We already covered  the Dems at 20%, right? How about this 33?

And we're going to make this 33 red here. We're  going to make this 33 red because I want that's. an interesting three 33% chance that the polls  underestimate the Republicans right here. And then. we're still left at that 47% mystery. I wonder  what that might be. Hm. You're just going to. have to wait and see and find out. 33% chance that  they underestimate the Republicans. Why? Why would. the polls underestimate the Republicans? What  might that mean? Well, the GOP was underestimated.

by more than two points in major statewide  races. It's happened a lot. It's happened a. lot recently. Look, in 2002, it was three points.  That was after 9/11. How about, we're going to get. back that green font. How about in 2014 it was  three points. How about in 2016? I think we all. remember that. Donald Trump shocked the world.  The polls underestimated him by three points in. the average uh statewide race. How about in 2020?  That was the biggest underestimation of Donald. Trump. Actually, look at that. It was a five-point  underestimation. And then in 2024, the same thing.

happened. The polls underestimated Donald Trump,  Republican party, and across the Senate races, those statewide races by not one, not two, but  three points. That's a pretty big underestimation, right? And here's a perfect example of it. We  have a pretty big Ohio Senate race this year, right? Here it is in action. Here it is in action  in the Midwest, right? We're going to take a roll. of the dime. And we we rolled it right there.  when we rolled it right into the Midwest. Okay, the final polls in the 2024 Ohio Senate race,  it was Sherid Brown versus Bernie Mareno. Look.

at that. The final polls, they were tied. You  want to hit me back with that die? Boom. I love. that die. The election outcome though was Bernie  Moreno by four points. So, the polls underestimate. nominee for Senate. Now, what exactly is going  on here? Why are the polls underestimating. Republicans? Well, one theory of the case is  if you're going to take a poll, right, you're. probably going to take a poll if you trust most  people. Trust those pollsters to keep your answers.

anonymous. Trust those pollsters to actually pick  up the phone. Social trust. That's what we're. talking about. And look at this. This is a very  interesting thing. Say most people can be trusted. Well, Democrats are more likely to say that than  Republicans. 43% compared to 34% of Republican. voters who say that. Now, this includes leaners, I  point out, but this is a clear that more Democrats. trust are more trustworthy of people than  Republicans are. This has not always been the case. in history, but it has been more recently. Now,  we were speaking about that Midwest, right? Well,

you know what the Midwest has? Has a lot of white  Republicans compared to white Democrats, right? The Midwest tends to be whiter than the nation as  a whole. A lot of whites without college degrees. And this is where you see the big difference. Look  among white adults. Hello. This is where we see. the really big difference in terms of social  trust and perhaps that willingness to pick up. the phone or answer the text or go online, take  that invitation to do that poll. White adults, most people can be trusted. Democrats, white  Democrats, 50% 50% of white Democrats say,

and in fact, most people can be trusted compared  to just 34% of Republicans. This really plays. out in the Midwest in a state like Ohio. As  I mentioned, you know, we saw this polling. error back in 2024. Will it in fact happen again?  Well, let's just say that we do in fact see a. 2026 Senate map at the polls underestimate  Republicans by two to four points. Well,

remember all that blue that was on the map before?  All that blue went bye-bye. See you later. Adios, amigos. Sayanara. Those democratic chances and  those democratic hopes down there into Lake Eerie. Look at this. Now, what we're dealing with, if  in fact the polls underestimate the Republicans, is 53 Republican Senate seats compared to 47  Republican seats. Maine that stays red. How about. a flip in Michigan where Abdul Sied very neck  andneck in the polls with Mike Rogers? Ohio stays.

red. Iowa stays red. Alaska stays red. Now, I  will note I will note that even in this scenario, right, you still get a situation where North  Carolina stays blue and Georgia stays blue, but Texas goes red, see Ken Paxton gets elected  to United States Senate, no James Taller Rico. So, a very clear Republican win in the Senate if the  polls are underestimating the Republicans like. perhaps they did in 2020, like they did in 2016,  so on so forth. And on the House side, what about.

this? On the House side, by the way, getting a  little shvitzy here. I think I'm gonna have to. have a drink in a second. If the polls undersshot  the Republicans by greater than three points, well, that's all you need. That's all you need for  Republicans in order for them to actually probably. hold on to the US House of Representatives. They  would likely win 218 plus House seats. And keep in. mind, this polling error absolutely has happened  before. Therefore, when we talk about the race.

being within the margin of error, the House of  Representatives, even if Democrats are favored, it is still within the margin of error that  Republicans can win if we see polling misses. like we have before. Now, let's just let's just  sort of sum up where we are. And while we're. summing that up, let me have we're kind of running  out of sodas here, so I don't know what the heck. this is. This looks like a fancy Selzer Sam pelro  peach clone. Whatever. Actually, not terrible. Not.

terrible. But chance that the polls underestimate  by greater than two points. We're still missing. this 47% group. Still missing this 47% group. So,  who is it? Who is it? Well, it's no one. It's no. one. The chance, the most likely possibility of  the polls this year is that they don't actually. underestimate one side systematically. No one. No  one is underestimated 47%. So you say to yourself, "Wait a minute. How is that possible? What  what's going on? I always remember the polls.

underestimating one side of the other." Well, it  turns out your mind may be playing a few tricks on. you because normally we don't end up with double  ones, snake eyes, right? What we're really talking. about is over history. Look at this. Years in  which the the polls underestimated no one by. over two points in the average race. 2000, 2004,  2006, 2008, 2010, 2018, and 2022. By the way, you.

might notice something that's similar about these  years, right? What's going on here? What's similar. about these years? Well, they're midterms. They're  midterms. We have a lot of midterms going on here. We have a lot of midterms going on here. Maybe  midterms, the polls don't actually underestimate. one side more than the other than you might  expect because in the first Trump midterm, it didn't happen, right? during Trump's sbatical  from the presidency in 2022. It didn't happen. And.

you know, I'm wondering, are the polls actually  getting worse? We'll get to that in a minute, right? I said I'd save that for the end. You  always got to save a little something for the. end. Anyway, so if this happened, right, if we  had like a 2018 thing going on here, well, what. would happen in the US House? Well, look at this.  In 2018, the National House Race, the final polls. in the popular vote had the Democrats plus nine.  And look what happened. The Democrats won by nine. points. The polls were right, baby. The polls were  exactly on target when it came to the national. polling in the House race. That's why I'm saying  that the most likely possibility is that the.

polls are actually exactly are are pretty close,  right? Maybe one side slightly underestimated, but not really by all that much. But this is  what we're talking about in the House. Now, if that happens, where are we ending up in terms  of the actual outcome? Well, probably somewhere in. this neighborhood. Democrats would win 230 to 235  House seats. That's probably what might happen. Kate, you're writing something off on the side.  I'm very interested to see what she's writing.

What's she writing? A blue trickle. She calls it  a blue trick. I Is this a blue trickle? Guys, do. you think this is a blue trickle? It says a blue  trickle. I don't know. There it is. It's actually. in green font, funny enough. A blue trickle in  green font. I I could consider that, you know, I don't know if it's a wave or maybe it's a small  wave. It's a small wave. Anyway, that would be the. most likely possibility in the House. What happens  in the Senate? The polls are exactly right on. If. if the result is the current polls, well, this  would be a very good night for Democrats. This. is why I think it would actually be considered a  blue wave. Look at this. You get 200, you get 52,

not 252, 52 Democrats in the Senate compared to  48 Republicans. You get that flip in Maine. You. get that flip in Ohio. You get that flip in North  Carolina, the flip in Texas. And yes. Oh, we just. lost it. We've lost the pen. We've lost the pen.  Let's see if we can get it back there. Oh no, it's right there. Look at that. Weird technology.  Weird technology here. How about this? There it. is. And then you'd also get it down here in Alaska  as well. So you get that dem flip of the Senate.

map. Okay, so you think, oh, it's all simple. It's  all done. But here's the thing. You might have. heard a word earlier on. I said systematically  systematically underestimating one side of the. other. Sometimes what you actually end up getting  is that in different races you get these polling. misses. So you know you remember back in 2018 I  mentioned this the House polls were right on the. Senate polls though it actually depended on what  state you were looking at and sometimes one side. was vastly underestimated and then in another race  another side was so who the polls overestimated in.

the 2018 Senate races. Well in Ohio the polls  overestimated Sher Brown who is back on the. ballot again by five points. In Texas, the polls  underestimated the Republican Ted Cruz. Of course, Sher Brown being a Democrat, underestimated  Ted Cruz by three points. So sometimes these. errors trying to average themselves out, right? So  you got a big Democratic error in one state and a. big Republican error in another one. So what  if this happened again? What if the polls in. Ohio underestimated the Republicans, overestimated  the Democrats, and in Texas, it was the same thing.

where the polls overestimated the Republican?  Well, what would happen in the Senate races. in that case? Well, how about this? If you get  the 2026 Senate polls mostly equal the results, except with 2018 like errors in Texas and Ohio,  well, look at this. Then you get as close as you. possibly can get. 51 Democrats, 49 Republicans,  and Ohio doesn't flip. But look what does. Look. what does. Texas, North Carolina, Maine, and you  got Alaska down here, which is where we can fit.

it. And that gets you to 51 Democratic seats. Now,  of course, I still have the one question I need. to answer. Are the polls actually getting less  accurate over time? Can I get a drum roll? Can. someone give me a drum roll? Thank you. There's  a drum roll. It's a beautiful drum roll. And the. answer is no. Actually, the polls are about  as accurate as they've always been, at least.

over the long term. The absolute average state  polling errors, this is presidential polling, but it does the trick here. Look at this. From  1972 to 2000 is 3.5 points. This is in competitive. state. States that which the polling was within  10 points in the final few weeks of the campaign. Compare that to 2004 to 2024. What was it? It's  exactly the same. It was 3.5 points. Indeed, if you think about this, what was the largest  polling error error in modern history in the last.

55 years for major election, a major countrywide  nationwide election? Wasn't actually Donald Trump. It's actually Ronald Reagan back in 1980. The  final polls underestimated him by six points. That was the biggest polling bias in the last  55 years. Turns out what's old is sometimes new. And while history doesn't repeat, it often  times rhymes. So anyway, we're going to see what. happens. Who knows? We'll see if in fact these  percentages hold. And the most likely outcome is.

no one. But we're just going to have to wait  and see and find out. But just know this, the polls aren't getting any worse. Well, folks,  that's the end. I can't believe you watched all. the way through, but I am quite thankful. Turns  out you actually love me more than my Yiddish. mama. Speaking of which, I think I got to give  her a call. Have a good one, folks. See you later.