Enten & experts unpack new CNN polls in key Senate race

Brand new CNN polling this morning out of Ohio  that could have major implications for the balance. of power in the Senate. The Democrat running  there, Sherid Brown, the latest CNN poll shows, has a six-point lead in that Senate race.  This would be a flip. If Sherid Brown wins, this would be a flip for the Democrats and a key  step on their path to take the four seats in the. Senate they need to regain control. With us now,  CNN chief data analyst, Harry. So, Brown up six.

in the latest CNN poll. What are the prediction  markets saying about his chances right now? Yeah, I think this is the key thing. If you want to  focus in on one state to know who is going to. control the United States Senate after the 2026  elections, it is Ohio. So goes Ohio. So goes the. Senate. So goes the nation. And you can really  see this quite well in the cash prediction odds. because just take a look at the chance that the  Democrats win. Take a look here on February 27, just before the Iran war started, Sheriff Brown  was just out of a 50% chance. Now he's up to a. 64% chance. How about for the Senate as a whole,  41% up like a rocket, up to 63%. Look at this.

6463. As Ohio goes, so goes the nation. You want  to focus on one state, it is Ohio, which of course. brings us back to those days of your right when  Ohio was so key in presidential elections and. now it's key in the Senate elections. Democrats  chances go up in Ohio, they went up nationwide. All right. So, the CNN poll has him up six. Is  this unusual for Sherid Brown lately? Yeah. Okay. So, why why is Sherid Brown's chances going up  significantly? How about this? How about this?

Sheriff Brown's last poll deficit. You got to  go all the way back to June. You got to go all. the way back to June. And that was well within  the margin of error, that particular poll. So, our CNN poll is no outlier. It is part of a string  of polls in which Sherid Brown is doing very, very well in a state that Donald Trump won by 11  points. He is gaining ground, not just according. to CNN, but across all the polling data that we  look at. All right. So, in our poll, Sherah Brown. is up six points. Six points seems like a lot. Or  is it? Yeah. Or or is it? Or is it? You know, you.

see this big chunk. June, that was the last time  Sher Brown was trailing in a poll. But take a look. here. Look at historically speaking. Okay. The GOP  outperformed the Ohio Senate poll average. This is. the average from early October in points. In two  2016, they outperformed in the final results in. the Ohio Senate race by seven points. How about  2018? Eight points. How about 2022? Seven points. How about 2024? Six points. And I'll note, of  course, that Sher Brown was running both in 2024.

and in 2018. So, there is a history in Ohio of  Republicans doing considerably better on election. day than what the polls suggest at this point. And  you talk about that CNN poll having Sherid Brown. up by six points. Well, that was the same exact  sort of difference, right, in which we saw where. Sher Brown had a lead at this point back in the  2024 campaign and ended up losing by a few points. If this type of shift happens again, well, it's  a very tight ball game in Ohio. You can't take. anything for granted if you're a Democrat running  there. And there's some hope for Republicans given.

historic overperformance from the polls were there  at this point to election day. Yeah. History shows. it could still be very, very close. How's the  president doing in Ohio? Yeah. Okay. So, you know, why do we see this? Why do we see that the last  time Sher Brown in fact was trailing a poll was. June? Why do we see that the Democrats chances  are going up in Ohio and therefore the nation? It's because of this. I I I mean, just look, Ohio  voters on Trump. He carried the state by 11 points. and he has been dragged down in the Ohio River or  Lake Erie, whatever body award you want to do. His.

net approval rating now down to negative 21 points  in an average of polls. That's a shift away from. president of 32 points. If Sherid Brown ends up  winning Ohio and the Democrats win the United. Senate, United States Senate, it will be because  of one man in particular more than any other man, and that is Donald John Trump dragging Republicans  down with him as his poll numbers continue to hit. record lows. About 75% of voters in Ohio told us  that they think that Donald Trump's policies have. increased their cost of living over the last  This is the same exact picture in state after.

state after state. Inflation brought Donald Trump  into office and it may sweep Republicans in the. Senate and certainly the House out of it. Harian,  thank you very much. Thank you, my friend. Ohio, a state the president carried by 11 points in the  24 election, now just 36% of likely voters are. approving of the job that he is doing. Democrat  Sherid Brown, who previously hold held a Senate. seat uh there in 20 2024, leads Republican John  Houston now by six points. This would be a flip.

clearly. With us now, Leanne Caldwell, a chief  Washington correspondent for Puck and Will Sten, co-author of the Politico playbook. And you know  guys, it's not just the Senate races in these two. states that are seeing this issue for Republicans  here. This is the Ohio Senate race with Sherid. Brad ahead of John Houston. But the governor's  race in Ohio right now. The Democrat Amy Actton. is leading Vive Ramaswami in the new CNN poll. And  in Iowa, again, where we have no clear leader in. the Senate race, the Democrat in the governor's  race, Rob Sand, has opened up a sizable lead.

there. What trends, Lean, let me just start with  you. Are you seeing like this around the country? Well, you just mentioned that it's not just  the Senate race, it's the governor's race in. those two states as well. And then there's also  congressional races that are further down the. ballot that are also in trouble for Republicans.  Um, I was talking to one key Republican strategist. last week who admitted that Iowa is perhaps their  most difficult state. That's because it's a state.

that is so red, something that they did not  think was going to be on the map this cycle. and something that they are having to defend  vigorously and they might lose up to three. congressional races, the governor's race and the  Senate race. We'll see how it plays out. But this. is a pattern that is happening around the country.  Um we're seeing it in poll after poll in these. purple and even red states um where Republicans  are really struggling despite the fact in many.

of these states Republicans are outspending the  Democrats and it's a big question on if money is. going to be able to make any sort of difference  and turn the tide of the mood of the electorate. John, money is making a difference. It's just  money in people's pockets. maybe not money. uh being paid to ad makers right now because  will when you ask voters in these two states. what the most important issues are right now and  this is really interesting economy and the cost of. living 49% in Ohio 48% in Iowa basically more than  every other issue combined and when you talk about.

um how the president's doing on the economy  some staggering figures Trump's policies have. increased cost 76% in Ohio 74% in Iowa. These are  both states he won by a lot two years ago with. threearters of the people will saying that he's  made their financial situation more difficult.

Yeah. And if you remember about how that his  campaign in 2024, so much of it was focused. on affordability and groceries. I remember that  one press conference he did towards the end of. the campaign in 24 where he had all the food  behind him and it was a little gross because. some of the food was like rotting. But the point  was made that he was going through the groceries. and talking about how much it was to, you know,  buy groceries under President uh Biden. And that. connected with a lot of voters who were saying,  "Yeah, my groceries are high." He gets into office. and groceries are even higher. And so, of course,  you know, they're holding him accountable. And I.

think, you know, to to the point of like the  governor's races, I look at someone like Vive. Ramaswami who is is is trailing in this poll in a  state that the president won by double digits. And. to me it speaks to how tied he is to President  Trump. This you know Vive Maswami's political. career is essentially um uh because of uh his his  ties to President Trump and he's not doing kind of. what we're seeing other races like Mike Rogers in  Michigan distancing himself. It would probably be.

even harder for someone like the vague Ramaswami.  Clearly, you know, they're not only are they are. voters in these states, you know, um you know,  tying the cost of living to pre the president, they're also tying it to their allies  who are running like the Vic Ram Swami.