'A very unusual pattern': Enten & experts unpack Texas election polling

This Wednesday, a special CNN town hall with Texas  Democratic Senate candidate James Telerico. And. Telerico is trying to pull off what Democrats have  wished to do for ages, but have not been able to. pull off to turn a long-held red Republican seat  blue by beating Republican opponent Ken Paxton. CNN's Harry Anton is running the numbers on  this one and running into the running into. the picture. I was really far away. I was in New  Jersey. Further than usual. Um, so Harry, when it. comes there's a lot. I mean, Texas has been a big  focus. Telerico and Paxton have been a big focus.

Is it Telerico alone that you're seeing that  polling is showing unusual strength for Democrats? Are you seeing something more? Yeah, I I'm seeing  something more Kate Bow and also know I love that. music as it plays. It really gets you in the mood.  It's midterm time. It's election time. But no, it is not. It's not just Telerico in which we are  seeing a very unusual pattern occurring in the. great state of Texas. Let's talk about lower down  the ballot. Let's talk about the House elections.

Okay, Democrats versus Republicans. US House  elections in Texas. You know, you go back to. 2024. The 2024 result, the statewide popular vote  for the US House was Republicans plus 18. Oo, let's get some pen here. There we go. We got some  pen. Plus 18 for Republicans. Look at it now. Look. at it now. No clear leader in the statewide  polls on the generic congressional ballot, but Democrats actually are polling slightly  better than Republicans at plus two. That is. a 20point movement. That is a 20point movement to  the left. And I was looking up through the history.

books. This would in fact, if this were the final  result, would be the best Democratic showing this. century in the state of Texas. You have to go  all the way back to 1992 to find the last time. that Texas Democrats won the statewide vote when  it came to the US House of Representatives. The. So this is truly historic polling. It is not just  at the top, but we're seeing it in the US House. of Representatives polling as well. Unusual  Democratic strength. Where are you seeing in.

terms of the biggest shift here? What's driving  this? What is driving this? What is driving. this 18-2 this 20 point shift going on? It's  Hispanic voters. It's Hispanic voters. Okay, Hispanic voters in the great state of Texas. You  know, you go back to the 2024 election. Look at. this. Donald Trump won Hispanic voters by 10  points. Look at where the US House polling is. right now. It's Democrats leading among Hispanic  voters in the great state of Texas by 31 points. That Republican brand, that Donald Trump brand is  in the garbage with Hispanic voters in the great.

state of Texas. And this is, what is this, Kate?  This is a 41 point shift to the left. Democrats. doing historically well with Hispanic voters,  at least compared to where they were two years. ago in the great state of Texas. And of course,  I will note in all of this, Texas is the fastest. growing state per USA facts. So we're essentially  seeing right here is Democrats picking up strength. among the number one group that is growing the  fastest in Texas. This is a very ugly picture. for Republicans, not just now, but long term as  well. Texas is also was also kind of the first.

big major driver when it came to came to the mid  decade redistricting efforts that Republicans led, especially in Texas, to try to gain more advantage  and gain more seats. What does this mean for them? Yeah. Okay. So, one of the reasons why Texas  Republicans thought they could pick up a lot of. seats with that mid-deing was the idea that Donald  Trump put up historic strength among Hispanic.

voters, right? But now all of a sudden you see  this, you go, "Wait a minute. Wait a minute. Wait. a minute. Maybe it's more of a dummy mander than  a gerrymander to actually pick up seats. Airgo. It might not work out so well for them." Well,  take a look at this. Okay, the redistricting. seat gains. Remember the Texas redistricting GOP  house seat gain. Their initial hopes were that. they could pick up up to five seats. Up to five  seats. But now the most likely outcome as I look. at sort of an aggregate of different measures is  they may pick up zero zero zero seats. and upwards.

of two. But the bottom line is this. If Texas  was this idea, Kate, that they could pick up a. ton of seats and sort of hold back hold back that  you know almost a dam against a Democratic wave. What Texas is showing is that dam is breaking. The  water is seeping through and it is actually even. going over the wall. And so Texas Republicans,  this may turn out to be not anything what they. imagine. It may be more of a waterloop than a  victory parade. That'll be an interesting thing to. see how this one turns out. For sure. This will be  very, very interesting. But as we said, just after. all the money that was spent on this, I mean, just  it yeah, all of this money and it may end up being.

zero zero zero. As I said, it's not just at the  top of the ballot you're seeing that Democratic. strength in Texas. It's also lower on the ballot  as well. Hear from the Democratic candidate, James Terico, and then his Republican opponent  Ken Paxton about these the fact that he was. gone from the campaign trail for for two weeks,  two weeks plus. He says he had the flu. Again, he is type 1 diabetes. So, it's not just like a  person who doesn't have that um that pre-existing.

condition getting the flu, but he's going back at  Ken Paxton and um trying to make the most of what. is coming at him. I've heard credible reports that  um Ken Paxton has a serious medical condition that. causes clinical levels of cowardice. Uh it's  why I I haven't heard from him after 85 days. uh when I first challenged him to a debate, he has  asked for uh proof of life from me. Um I'm asking.

for proof of spine from him. We've been working  on that for months with him. And of course, we can never quite work out the details because  he always wants something we can't do. Jeff, uh his response to that on Twitter was, "Here are  the details anytime, any place, any network." So. Terico is certainly pushing back against You say  it here, it comes out there. I've read it ahead. of the show, Diana. Uh so he was ready for that  and and I mean I think the question there is does.

Paxton want to debate and the answer seems to be  no. Um and that's because so far Taler Rico has. run a campaign that certainly Texas did not expect  to be as successful as it has been for a Democrat. Um as far as sickness and health go. Oh, I mean,  I've had the flu that's laid me down for that long. before and I don't have a pre-existing conditions,  but there that's my investigative reporting on. on the flu, but but certainly the ill the issue  of illness and how much you disclose about that. and what takes you away from the campaign trail  has hurt other other candidates before. I mean,

I remember going back to the Hillary Clinton  campaign against Donald Trump in 2016 when she. was out for a while. That also became an issue and  she didn't disclose it right away. So that's it's. not uncommon in political campaigns for illnesses  like that to come up and and for that to become. an issue. But certainly um the the prospect of a  debate it's pretty believable what Telerico was. saying. Well it is kind of again take a step back  the fact that this is such a marquee critically.

important race and there isn't a debate on the  schedule unusual but not unusual for Ken Paxton in. the history of his campaigns. He's not uh somebody  as a candidate that has Yeah. But he's never run. for Senate before. No. No. Yes. That has been  eager to uh debate. Um but yes, and and by the. way, we're seeing it in some other places, too,  where just candidates are a little uh reluctant. to to debate in this modern media environment,  which by the way, this modern media environment.

or modern information environment is also what has  allowed for a vacuum to be filled about theories. about where Taler Rico is. What I find so curious  is why is that the message that Paxton wants to. lean into in these closing days? Some that that  is obviously answered by Terico now being back on. the campaign trail. So So why is that? Where do  they think they're going to get mileage of that. with voters um rather than sort of addressing what  voters are saying are the most important issues to. them? And I it I it's just an intriguing decision  in the Republican ecosystem around Ken Paxton.

uh that that they're leaning into this and  have been doing so for the last two weeks in.