1 month to midterms, key voter signals & more | Enten roundup
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903.4K views4 weeks exactly until the midterm elections. President Trump just a short time ago said that. the results will be a midterm surprise. What kind of surprise? CNN chief data analyst Harry. Eton is here. So where does the president stand with four weeks to go compared to his immediate. predecessor? Yeah, I think this is one of the big questions, right? We know that Joe Biden had a low. approval rating, right? His net approval rating was significantly low, but they held on to the.
Senate back in 2022. Here's the problem right now. Here's the problem. Donald Trump is even. less popular than Joe Biden was. You know, take a look here in the key Senate states that that fall, right? Those were the races that ultimately determined control. Bo Joe Biden's net approval. rating was 13 points underwater. Look at where Donald Trump's. He's 21 points underwater in. an average of the key Senate races for this fall. So, Donald Trump is in considerably worse position. than Joe Biden was. So, Republicans hoping that there's a midterm surprise, have to deal with.
this factor right here, which is dragging them down even more so than Joe Biden was dragging. Democrats down back in 2020. Okay. Democrats were able to hold on to the Senate with a number that. looks like this. This number is different than this. What does this number look more. like? This looks a whole heck of a lot. Not like a midterm surprise, but like a midterm nightmare for. Republicans because just take a look here. Okay. key Senate states that fall. The president's net. approval rate. How about 2014? Look where Barack Obama was. He was 20 points underwater. You know.
what happened to that Democratic majority in the Senate? Adios amigos. Goodbye. See you later. How. about in 2006? Jo W. Bush's net approval rating in the key Senate states that fall. Look at that. His average net approval was 20 points underwater. That looks a whole heck of a lot like we're going. on right here. And you know what happened? As I said, in terms of the Senate majority, it flipped from the president's party in this year and this year as well. This is an equation. that looks a whole heck of a lot like this one. And this one, these ones led to a result I don't.
think that Donald Trump would like. He called this a thumping. He called it a shellacking sort of. caption contest here maybe on November 4th. Okay. How about the key swing group here? Independence. Yeah. What is What is What is going on here? What is cooking? Why is Donald Trump so low? Well, how about this independence on Donald Trump and the key 20 20 26 Senate states. You know, back in 2024, independents in these states. Look at this. Donald Trump won by an average. of 15 points. Look at him now. Look at this. Now, this is just not even in the same universe. This.
is like planet Krypton. I mean, look at this. 42 points underwater. That is a significant drop well. into the deep blue sea. What is that, Johnny B? That is a shift away from the president of United. States of 57 points. a 57 point swing which I said could very much lead to a midterm nightmare for. Republicans which is doing what to the prediction market what's doing you know this is the trend. line just look at this okay chance Democrats win the Senate you go back a few months ago two months. ago Democrats were slightly south to 50% but as Donald Trump and his negative net approval rating.
has been dragging down Republicans we've seen the polls shift and as the polls have shifted the. prediction markets the cashier prediction markets now a two-3 shot that Democrats win control of the. Senate look it's not 100% still four weeks to But these are the types of numbers I think Democrats. would say, "Hey, at the beginning of the year, we like our chances." A lot of the polls show things. moving away from the Republicans. But there are some big picture macro trends which could have. Republicans smiling. What am I talking about? With us now, CNN chief data analyst, Harry. So,
if you're taking the big picture, like backing I'm backing way up out of frame here. What looks good. for Republicans? Yeah, it's voter registration. the long-term long-term health of the Republican. party versus the Democratic party in terms of how are you registered to vote, Democrat, independent or non-affiliated or Republican. You can see in the key swing states that we normally. look at in presidential elections that look the Republicans are gaining versus where they. were 8 years ago during Trump's first midterm election. Take a look here. GOP gains in party.
registration margin versus election day 2018. In Arizona, the Republican margin versus a Democrat, Republicans are up four points. How about Nevada? Republicans up five points. How about North. Carolina? Republicans up eight points. How about the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania? Republicans up. seven points. So when you take a look at how people are actually registering, this is not. polling data. Compared to where we were 8 years ago, Republicans are doing considerably better in. what are the swing states at least normally in presidential elections. Okay. So someone.
could look at this and say, Harry, this is 2018. What about in the last two years? Because trends, the polling at least has been moving in Democrats favor. Yeah. Okay. You see the polling over the. last two years really moving in the Democrats favor, but are they actually gaining in terms. of registration at least compared to where we were two years ago? Well, I think this makes it pretty. simple, right? Pretty simple. In Pennsylvania, no. North Carolina, no. Nevada, no. Arizona, no. There may be some tiny lake gains that are going on right now, right? That I think over the last. month maybe Democrats are getting. But when you take the longer term view versus the 2024 election.
in which Republicans won all of these states, Democrats are in fact not actually gaining ground. I'm glad you put in that disclaimer because over the last couple months, I think people have seen. some ticks up for Democrats, but not over two years. Correct. There's been some ticks up, but they no way blows away the Republican gains. Okay. So, put this in historical perspective. How. good is this these bigger trends for Republicans? Yeah. So, you see these trends in these key swing. states? How about this one? Okay, take a look here. The GOP's best party registration position.
relative to the Democrats in a midterm in at least 20 years. Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona. The bottom line is this. Republicans right now are in a much stronger position. than they have been, not just compared to 8 years ago, but over the long term as well. The relative. health of the Republican party, at least in terms of party registration, is pretty gosh darn good. relative to today. And if you're talking about registration over the last 10, 15, 20 years, one state where we've seen some really big shifts is Florida. What are the prediction markets saying.
about what might happen there in a few weeks? Yeah, I remember when Florida was a swing state. I remember when Florida was a swing state. But look at this. Okay, the chance that the GOP wins. the key races in Florida. How about that Senate race? Ashley Moody, look at that. A 91% chance. Byron Donald's in the gubanatorial race. That one's a little bit tighter. But even there, Byron. Donald's is the favorite. A 76% chance according to the cash prediction markets. The bottom line is. that Florida has had major gains for Republicans and party registration and it's reflected in the. races in which people are running. We've talked often about the big gains that the president.
made in 24. Yeah. What's changed? Yeah. What what has changed K? You know, this was one of the big. surprises coming out of 2024, right? That is that Donald Trump made major gains among naturalized. citizens. That is immigrant voters despite what a lot of Democrats thought were harsh rhetoric from. him. But all of those gains, they are basically collapsing. It turns out that actions do in fact. have consequences. Take a look here. Trump's net approval rating among immigrant voters, you know,
in late 2024. Look at this. His net approval rating was doing okay. Minus two points. Not. too bad. Not too great either, but pretty gosh darn good for a Republican president. Look at this. now. Minus 46 points. Falling through the floor. My goodness gracious. That's a shift of 44 points. away from the president of the United States amongst a group that he did historically well. with for a Republican presidential candidate. But all of those gains, at least for President Trump, seem for not immigrant voters are waiting. Adios, amigos. Goodbye to the president of the United.
States there. And there could be a lot that drives that. How much is the president's immigration. policy are you seeing motivating that? Yeah, you know, look, there are a lot of reasons for this. drop. You know, the economy, cost of living is one of them. But when I say actions have consequences, I'm also talking about immigration because one of the key things that immigrant voters did was they. like President Trump or them former President Trump on immigration. You know, back in 2024, he was more trusted on immigration policy by four points over Kla Harris. But look now,
look in 2026. Now 60% of immigrant voters say that Trump has gone too far on deportations. I. think immigrant voters just like other Americans were they thought they were. signing up for one thing and what they got was something very very different and they did not. want what they see as the harshness of the Trump deportation policies and I think that. is playing a major role in them shifting away from the president of the United States and him. falling back to levels that he might have been used to seeing during term number one instead.
of what he saw on the re-election pathway for him at least back in 2024. So you add. this all up and what could it then mean for the midterms? Yeah. Okay. So this would be one thing, Kate, if we were just talking about President Trump, right? You know, look, President Trump, as much as he wishes, is not on the ballot in a month. Who is on the ballot is Republicans running. for Congress. And you can see it here. I mean, just take a look here. Voters who are immigrants, you know, back in 2024, Donald Trump put up a historically strong performance among immigrant. voters. He only lost them by four to Kla Harris. But look at this Democratic advantage. Absolutely.
expanding. Now Democrats ahead by 22 points on the generic congressional ballot. That is a shift of. 18 points away from the Republican party. And that of course is what? That's five times more. than five times the lead. This is going to be a big part of the story because they make up about. 10% of voters. That is a significant chunk. And if Republicans can't hold on to them, it's just yet another group that they haven't been able to hold on to that Donald Trump made. big gains with back in 2024. Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the United States Senate since 1932.
That's 94 years ago. For those who don't want to do the mental math this early in the morning, what is going on? And that is President Trump is historically unpopular for repres for a Republican. president in the great state of Kansas. Take a look here. Okay, what are we looking at here? Republican president's net approval ratings in Kansas. I absolutely buy the idea that this race. is close because just take a look at these. Okay, GOP net approvals in Kansas about at this point. in a term. Look at this. George W. Bush coming off a 9/11 was at about plus 45 points. Even in 2006,
he was still in the positive territory at about plus one. In his first term, look at this. Donald. Trump at plus five points. Look at how much less popular Donald Trump is than he was in term number. one. At this point, he's way down in the basement. 15 points underwater. That's a 20 point shift away. from the president of the United States. That is 16 points less popular than any other Republican. president at this point in term this century. And in fact, while we don't have the polling data, if you look at the national polling data, I would say that Donald Trump is probably at this point in.
the term the least popular Republican president probably since, well, Herbert Hoover. Huh. So, you're looking at this and it's the president's unpopularity in Kansas that might be driving part. of this. But Kansas, if it were talking, would say, you know, it's not just you, it's me. Yeah. It's not just you, it's me. You know, you take a look at this polling, you know, hm, I'm not necessarily sure I quite trust it. But Kansas has actually been shifting away from the. right the last couple of presidential election cycles. Take a look here. Okay. States more. Republican than Kansas. This is a two presidential election average. You know, there were only seven.
states that were more Republican than Kansas in ' 0408. 08012. Look at that. Nine states were more. Republican than Kansas. Then 2012, 2016, 12 states. Then 2016, 2020, 15 states. Now there. are 17 states more Republican than Kansas. If you take a look at the average of the last two. presidential elections, what this essentially means is versus the national average, Kansas. has actually been moving to the left. It has been shifting away from the right. And in fact, in terms of the state rankings, this is the lowest ranking in terms of Republicanness of Kansas in.
over a century. Kansas, one way to measure it, is less Republican right now than it has been in over. a century versus the national average. This is a really interesting way to look at it, and this. had not occurred to me, and this is something I think we're all learning right now. Kansas. maybe not as ruby red as it once was. Exactly right. It is still leading Republican but not. anywhere near as Republican as it once was. So if Kansas could talk, it would say it's not just you, President Trump. It's not just me, the state of Kansas, but it might also be a little bit of him,
the Democratic candidate. That's right. Adam Hamilton, who is doing very well in part because. Adam Hamilton is popular. Take a look at this. Okay, key Senate races. highest net favor rating. of any of the candidates that the New York Times tested is Adam Hamilton in Kansas, the Democratic. nominee. His net favor rating is plus 12 points. The average candidate that the Times tested was. actually a point underwater. And more than that, as Johnny B and I were talking about backstage, his unknown is actually pretty high. And the people who do know him, they actually like him.
more than the average Democrat. And so I wouldn't be be surprised if as those people who are unknown. that he gets even higher net favor ratings at this point, he has room to grow and he's already more. popular than the average candidate. In fact, the most popular candidate in a key Senate race in the. entire nation at this point, at least according to the New York Times. This is why Senate Republicans. are dumping $14 million into this race to try to drive this number down. That's exactly right. This.
to me is potentially a mathematical perfect storm. a historically unpopular Republican in. Kansas and Donald Trump and a historically popular Democratic Senate candidate and. Anna Hamilton. That may be the equation that gets Kansas its first Democratic center in 94.