WHOA: Republican scheme UPENDS midterm election

I'm joined now by Kyle Kondik, managing. editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the. University of Virginia Center for. Politics. Kyle, thanks so much for. taking the time. I want to talk to you. about this new map that was released by. Florida Republicans. This is obviously a. gerrymander to counteract what Democrats. were just able to pass out of Virginia, that 10-1 map. So, I got to ask first. and foremost, can we talk about the legality of this. move? Because there is a a. constitutional amendment in place in. Florida that would ban partisan.

gerrymandering. That seems to be exactly. what this new map would would require in. order to pass it. And so, would this. pass legal muster? It's a great question. I mean, I think. you could look at the map and say, "Hey, this obviously is a is a Republican. gerrymander." You know, the previous. map, I think you could argue that too, although I think it's a clearer argument. here. But, whether the Florida Supreme. Court would actually enforce that is a. completely open question. Governor. DeSantis has made, I think, six of the. seven appointments to the to the Florida. Supreme Court. It's a conservative. court. It seemed like they might rule.

against at least portions of the. pro-Republican map that passed in 2022. They declined to do so. And in some. ways, what's going on here is that the. DeSantis administration has kind of. taking this fair districts amendment. that voters approved about 15 years ago. kind of head-on saying that basically. there are portions of the what's called. the fair districts amendment that don't. stand stand up to constitutional. scrutiny, and that there were. protections in it for basically for. majority-minority districts that again. don't pass legal muster. And so, they.

say the whole thing is obsolete. Again, I'm no lawyer. I don't know what, you. know, what this court is ultimately. going to decide. There are legal hurdles. to to jump here though for Republicans. I kind of feel like Governor DeSantis is. is sort of taking them head-on in this. in this proposal. Well, I mean, this. feels like a more egregious gerrymander. than even the one that DeSantis himself. pushed forward. against the wishes of the Republican. legislature. Like, the the existing map. is the gerrymander that that that really. was just Ron DeSantis' pet project. Like.

the Republican legislature had a less. egregious gerrymander. DeSantis, you. know, as part of his whole political. platform wanted to be more aggressive. They got that passed. This takes that to. even a new level. And so I'm just I'm. just wondering here, is it possible for. the opponents of this map to come in and. say even if the. you know, Republican. state Supreme Court in Florida wasn't. willing to take a look at or block the. existing Republican map, this one is.

even more egregious than that one. Yeah, look, I think you certainly could. make that argument. Certainly it would. It seems like it would it would produce. an even more lopsided Republican House. delegation. It's 20 to 8 Republican. right now. If this map performs as. intended, it would go up to 24 to 4. Now, I think there are reasons why it. might not perform as intended in in in. the context of 2026, which should be a. much. bluer or at least less redder in Florida. than than 2022 and and certainly 2024. were. But again, you and I can can talk.

about that and and think that it's an. obvious argument, but it may not be an. obvious argument to the to the to the. Florida Supreme Court. Another thing. here is what does the US Supreme Court. do with this Callais decision on on. Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act and. basically whether majority-minority. districts are essentially protected, you know, and and this the letter from. Ron DeSantis' legal counsel that. accompanied this proposal today kind of. suggested that that you know, Republicans are going to get their way.

on Callais. The decision hasn't come out. yet. I think DeSantis was hoping that. the decision would come out would have. come out come out by now. That's part of. the reason why he pushed this back all. the way till late April. We don't have. that decision. We don't know what it's. going to say. It may be that Sam Alito. is writing that decision. It may be that Sam Alito gives. Republicans everything they want. But if. he if Callais isn't decided in favor of. Republicans, it may also be the case. that this map doesn't stand up to. federal scrutiny on racial redistricting. lines either. So again, lots of open.

questions legally about this map. Okay, so you alluded to the political. implications here. Is there a world. where this proposed gerrymander could. actually turn into a dummy mander. because the lines are are you know, the. districts are drawn too thin where the. the margins are you know, if you if you. bring a you know, an R plus 15 district. down to an R plus five in a in a an. election year where Democrats are over. performing by you know, 10, 12, 14. points. Do you think there's a world in which we.

could see this backfire? I think in order for it to be a. quote-unquote dummy mander, Republicans would have to come out of. 2026 with fewer than 20 seats, which is. what they have now and they're 20 fairly. durable seats and I'd also say that you. know, there are a few districts on the. current map and also the proposed map, Maria Salazar is in Florida 27, Cory. Mills in Florida 7, who's got a lot of a. lot of scandals and problems of his own. You know, it's possible that they might. have lost under the old map. The new map.

didn't really change their districts all. that much. So if they lose, you can't. really blame the the map for for the. reason why that would happen. It would. be as part of kind of a a mega. Democratic wave. So I this reminds me a. lot of what happened in Texas in that in. in in Texas, Republicans wanted to gain. up to five new seats based on their new. map. They may or may not be able to do. that, but I don't think they're going to. come out of this election with fewer. districts than they had before they drew. the map. It's just a question of how. well does this map perform for. Republicans. That's true in Texas, I.

think it's true here in Florida, too. You know, there was a lot of reporting. that even Florida Republicans, folks who. are you know, the the the elected. officials who would be impacted by these. maps were pushing back against the idea. of engaging in the special legislative. session to be able to pass these new. maps. Can you just speak on that idea and. whether uh whether you think that that. was taken into account here? I don't know if it was taken into. account and in fact this process was so. secretive that even the state. legislature, which is ostensibly in in. charge of this process, I mean they.

basically just outsource things to the. governor. The governor's office seemed. to you know produce this map. It showed. up on Monday. It looks like the legislature is is. going to rubber stamp it over the next. couple days. Maybe they won't. I guess. it's possible that they could they could. push back on it, but this has really. been driven by by the governor's office. and presumably the White House has been. you know probably knows something about. it, but again there's there's not really. been anything publicly. said about it. You know you think of. redistricting as being sort of a. publicly deliberative process. It really.

wasn't in the sense of that. Now look. when the you know when the Virginia. Democratic gerrymander emerged a few. months ago, that was also something that. that you know I think was sort of. dictated by the state legislature. It is. fair to so to say though that. the the map came out of it and the. public voted on it. So there there was a. sort of a public public deliberation in. that regard. There really hasn't been. in in Florida. And you know the members. themselves, you know most members will. never want to see their district change. unless they are getting you know a. better district for for themselves.

But the members I mean look the state. legislature doesn't seem to have much. power here let alone the members who. don't really have a formal say even. though you know they're the ones who. represent Florida in the US House of. Representatives. Yeah, I mean look I. think it's also worth noting that in. both Democratic weapons here in this. redistricting war, both California and Virginia, both of. those went to the voters. In every. instance where the Republicans pushed. this through, whether we're talking. Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, Florida, those are going to be done by. fiat by by folks in charge where the.

voters never have a say in the matter. So I think that's just like something. that's pretty telling in in this entire. process. I did see some polling today. that if they did put this to the voters. that it wouldn't pass in Florida, which. is why I I presume it's being done in. the way that it is. Well, part of you. know, part of the reason why California. and Virginia went to the voters is. because they basically had to in order. to get around the. redistricting commissions that were. written into the Constitution. Now, if. Florida actually did want to do away. with the Fair Districts Amendment and go.

to the voters in order to amend the. Constitution in Florida, it actually. takes 60% of the vote. Um which is what. this you know, which is what the. amendment got. I think it was back in in. 2010. Um now, what the the DeSantis. administration seems to be arguing is is. that um even though the voters approved. this back in 2010, that it's not. operative anymore because of uh you. know, basically of a Florida Supreme. Court decision recently that kind of. pushed back on on some aspects of it. having to do with racial racial. redistricting thing.

>> Well, look, on that point, like you. if you're Ron DeSantis and you have a. Supreme Court that doesn't really care. what the Florida Constitution says, if. you have um it you know, these instances. where um where judges or state officials. don't even want to take into account. what the law is supposed to be, then. like you don't have to worry about. thresholds. You don't have to worry. about anything because you've got these. people in in in Ron DeSantis's pocket. who are just going to rule by fiat. anyway. Well, look, I mean, part of the story since Ron DeSantis ran.

for president was that you know, he was. such a powerful governor of Florida, particularly in his first term. I mean, his his ability to get the you know, the. first map done in in 2022, I think it. was an example of his power. I think. there's been some thought that maybe his. power is waning. He's a you know, he's a. lame duck governor. He's going to be out. of office starting next year. But, this. is another real power play for DeSantis. because he's trying to essentially not. only dictate this map to the state. legislature controlled by Republicans, but also suggesting to the Florida. Supreme Court that they should.

essentially go along with the map and. also maybe even decide that the Fair. Districts Amendment isn't you know, isn't isn't operative anymore or at. least isn't doesn't have any teeth. So, it is a real power play. Again, we'll. see if it actually if actually works or. not. Can you talk about if Florida. Republicans are successful in pushing. this through, what the net sum of these. redistricting wars is going to look. like? So, there's a way of looking at it. So, we we've got eight states now who are. have redistricted or attempting to.

redistrict. And you sort of look at them. in groups. So, it's California versus. Texas last year. Texas is trying to add. five new Republican seats. California's. trying to add five new Democratic seats. California also shored up a few current. Democratic seats, which I think you have. to kind of keep in mind when you're. doing the arithmetic here. So, I think California was a little bit. better for Democrats than than Texas was. for Republicans, but they're kind of. similar. Virginia trying to add four new. Democratic seats. Florida trying to add. four new Republican seats. In some ways, maybe they cancel themselves out.

Although, you know, there are legal. questions about both. And you know, we. got to see how they perform in the. elections. Ohio was not really a. Republican gerrymander, although it was. a certainly it's a it's a it's a. pro-Republican map than what you'd. expect to be a neutral map to be. Maybe. Republicans get a seat or two out of. Ohio, although I don't think anything is. really guaranteed there. Utah. court-drawn map uh plus one Democratic. Maybe you could say Ohio and you know, and Utah maybe cancel themselves out. And then you've got Missouri and North. Carolina, you know, an additional.

Republican seat a piece. The Missouri. map might get thrown out by the courts. if because of a you know, or maybe. basically put on pause by a referendum. I think if all of these maps come. through, it's kind of a wash. And and. again, it'll sort of depend on what the. results are. Now, if you know, Virginia. succeeds and Florida fails or Florida. fails and Virginia or if Florida. succeeds and Virginia fails, then maybe. one you know, the. the one side gets a clear advantage over. the other. But I think the bottom line. here is that things have not changed.

enough to you know, to change to to. change the idea that that Democrats are. favored to take the house. I think. they've been favored basically the whole. time this cycle. I think they continue. to be and you know, we'll just see where. how redistricting ultimately ends up. resolving here. Well, you had mentioned. before the Cale case and we don't only. have the Cale case that's coming down. the pike. We also have you know, the. 2030 census which is going to take a. bunch of electoral seats away from. historically blue states and put them. put them in in historically red states.

and so with that you know, on the horizon here. and with a bunch of Democratic weapons. still. which still remain to be gerrymandered. like New Jersey, New York, Colorado, Washington. and I'm sure there are other Republican. states where you've got you know, partisan officials who are willing to. you know, do their part in this whole. you know, race to the bottom basically. Where do you think that one side might. have an advantage over the other when. all is said and done?

Well, look I mean I think that it is. indeed the case that Republican states. should gain house seats and electoral. votes from blue states in the 2030. census. Now, we'll see what what that. what actually happens and that's also. several election cycles away. I do think. these redistricting wars are going to. continue into 2028. Maybe you get the. Cale decision in I mean it could come in. any time but maybe comes in June. Maybe. it is a pro-Republican ruling. You know, maybe those protections for majority. minority districts are eliminated. That'll have ripple effects throughout.

the south. It might also have ripple. effects in in blue states too because. maybe they won't have to you know, feel. like they have to protect certain. districts. You know, you could have. states like Colorado and New York go to. the voters and and try to roll back some. of the redistricting. you know, commissions or restrictions in. those states much the way that. California and Virginia did. Maybe a red. state like Indiana that elected not to. gerrymander or re-gerrymander in 2026. Maybe they do it in 2028. So, you could. sort of go on and on and on with lots of.

possibilities. I I will say that without. some sort of national solution on. redistricting. um in which you have some sort of. agreement between the parties as to how. to do it. I mean, that seems totally. like a pie in the sky kind of thing. Um. you're just going to you're just going. to keep going here and I think the race. to the bottom is probably going to. continue. Um one thing that's I think. maybe a little bit dangerous for. Democrats in the context of 2028 and. 2030 is that the some of these maps. might perform well for Democrats in 2026. or maybe they won't lose as many seats.

as they expect in like a Texas or a. Florida because of the environment, but. maybe those maps will perform for. Republicans in 2028 and 2030. So, you. kind of got to you know, you got to take. it election by election. Um and so, maybe what looks like a wash. in 2026 actually is a Republican. advantage in 2028 because of the change. in the political environment. Kyle, for. folks who are watching and listening, what can they see and hear more from. you? centerforpolitics.org/krystleball. Uh we just put up an analysis on Monday. of the uh new Florida map, which I'm.

sort of referencing uh uh here today. You know, best guess is that I I think. it might be a challenge for Republicans. actually to achieve that net gain of of. four in Florida uh even if uh the map is. instituted for this year. So, uh that's. something we're watching going forward. here. Kyle, real quick, is there any big. surprise that you're anticipating come. uh election day in midterms? Uh I mean, look. I mean, I think it. would still be a surprise if Democrats. flip the Senate, but uh and I think. Republicans are still favored, but like. you're you're starting to see kind of.

more of the path emerging here over the. past uh the past few months. But, and. you know, the other thing is that um I'd. say the bigger surprise than you know, Democrats flipping the Senate would be. Republicans holding the House cuz I do. think Democrats are in pretty good. position in the House. Um and again, this redistricting thing has sort of. added some uncertainty there, but that's. generally been the case and I think that. that continues to be the case. You know, I feel like for as long as I've been in. politics, we have looked at a few states. as like, you know, just impossible. to get back into the blue column and.

that includes Florida, that includes, you know, Texas. I I I don't even. remember a time when Texas was there, but you know, that has been the. perpetual prize. A place like Ohio has. gotten redder and redder. Do you Do you. have any feelings about the prospects. that Democrats have in this election. cycle as it relates to these to these. states that have been for so long out of. reach, but would really upend the. political map as we know it if suddenly. Democrats are able to win in Ohio or or. Texas or Florida? Well, look, in order to actually flip.

the Senate, you know, Democrats are. going to need at least two of those. seats from a you know, and from a. double-digit Trump Trump state and that. that assumes that they win North. Carolina and Maine. It assumes that they. hold all their current seats. You know, those may or may not be safe. assumptions, but but yeah, I mean, you. know, Democrats are now locked out of, you know, the. of the states that voted for Trump three. times he was on the ballot, which is 25. states. That's 50 Senate seats. You. know, they have to claw back some of. those some in some of those places to. win. North Carolina is a natural place.

for that in the Senate. Then you look at. like Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, maybe Florida, maybe Texas. So, whether Democrats are. going to can make inroads in those. states, it's probably not going to. decide the house, but it very well may. decide this the Senate. All right. Well, I'm going to put the link to your. website right here on the screen and. also in the post description for those. who are listening on the podcast. I'm. going to throw it into the show notes. Kyle, as always, thanks for the. analysis. Thanks for the work you do. Thanks for having me.