UH OH: Trump hangs JD Vance OUT TO DRY

We now have some new J.D. Vance news. that may signal some trouble for the. Trump administration. I'm joined now by. the chief national correspondent at Puck. News, Peter Hamby. Peter, I'm going to. throw right here on the screen a. headline from MS Now. And and then we'll. talk about it in a moment. So, this. headline is after months of privately. weighing his vice president against. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the. president has begun openly rooting for. J.D. Vance. Five people familiar with. his commentary said. So, we've got the. White House that is kind of putting its. finger on the scale, throwing its weight.

behind J.D. Vance, but there is also. some news that signals a rough, rocky. road ahead for Vance. So, can you talk. about that? >> Yeah, no. Um I I have I have questions. about this story, by the way. We should. I want to dig into whether Trump and. Vance actually like each other, but um I. think Vance has been in some trouble. with Republicans nationally for some. time. We There's an Emerson College. poll, national poll of Republicans that. came out. That's the story you're. referencing. Vance has fallen Let's. actually I'll pull this up here. From. just a few months ago, in August of.

2025, shoot, almost last year, he was at. 50% in the Republican horse race for. 2028, J.D. Vance. Today he's at 36. So, he's tumbled like almost 20 points. And. then Marco Rubio, who you just. mentioned, is up at 35. So, basically, the headline from this Emerson poll is. that J.D. Vance is now tied with Marco. Rubio in national polling for 2028, which is a really big shift. And I've. gone back and watched this trend since. March, really. It it goes back to the. war in Iran. I mean, that has made Trump.

unpopular. J.D. Vance has bear-hugged. Donald Trump. He put himself out there. as the front man for the memorandum of. understanding that has clearly fallen. apart over and over and over again. Whereas Rubio has more smoothly kind of. managed the Iran war. He's obviously. been a Trump side. He's obviously part. of the administration. Um but he hasn't really been out front. in the way J.D. Vance has. Vance can't. help himself, Brian. I mean, Vance says. yes to every camera. He loves to fight. with everybody. He's like our first. podcaster take uh.

>> Yeah. >> vice president and would wants to be our. first podcaster president. He just can't. shut up. Um. the one thing I will say though is that. his numbers are still really strong. among MAGA Republicans, whereas Rubio's. numbers are stronger among more. traditionally identifying Republicans to. the extent they still exist. So, that's. an interesting trend worth unpacking. >> Well, you know you know um it's not like. Vance didn't see this coming because all. this time, even from the very beginning, Vance has been planting stories or his. team has been planting stories in. Politico, for example. Uh there was.

another article, if I'm not mistaken, in. The Wall Street Journal where Vance. keeps positioning himself as the lone. skeptic in the room that he's he's out. there trying to trying to dissuade the. president from engaging in. interventionism. Uh and and of course, you know, when it does happen, that's. that's uh that's not thanks to his. efforts. That's in spite of his best. efforts to get Trump to back off. So, I. think the fact that we're that we saw. all of this groundwork laid. in the very beginning, like right off. the bat, goes to show that Vance knew.

that this one was going to be a problem. for him uh politically and I think. that's bearing itself out right now. >> Yeah, look, just stepping back, being. vice president is very hard for anyone's. political ambitions in either party. And. we saw this with Kamala Harris earlier. in the Biden years when she was. given the portfolio of dealing with uh. southern border migration. You know, and. she went to Central America and said, "Do not come.". And she said she hadn't been to the. border, whatever. Different time. But,

you know, you always have to answer for. the president's policies. And Donald. Trump's policies are unpopular across. the board. He's underwater on trade. He's underwater on immigration. He's. underwater on foreign policy. He's. underwater on the Iran war. He's. underwater, most importantly, on. inflation, the cost of living, and the. economy. And so, no matter how many. inside baseball stories you plant. in Politico or the Wall Street Journal. or the Washington Post. The American. public at large is not sort of parsing. those stories apart. They see a.

spokesman for an unpopular. administration, full stop. And look, again, I. I've always questioned J.D. Vance's. political instincts. Like, I just think. Marco Rubio has grown to have better. political instincts on a national and. international stage, whereas J.D. Vance. has just shown himself to, you know, genuflect to Donald Trump at every turn. Um, another angle to this I think is. interesting, you know, with that MS now. story, you know, I can see Trump, by the way, rooting for a, you know, boxing match in.

2028 in the Republican primary between. his two guys. And even though he's going. to leave the White House, if he leaves. the White House, he's going to want to. sort of weigh in and play them against. each other. He loves being the. ringmaster. We know that about Trump. So, there's that. And that the second thing is that. Donald Trump, you know, kind of I think. uses J.D. Vance as a bit of a heat. shield. I I'm not sure everyone on. Trump's team, you know, in the Oval. Office thinks that J.D. Vance is the.

most adept political player, that he's. not, you know, a a great political. athlete. And they like having him out. there as the face of an unpopular war. You know, he will go on Rogan and he. will go on any network and he will go on. any podcast and he will travel around. the world and give speeches defending. Donald Trump. The And the the flip side. of that is. that's J.D. Vance's political bet, and. it's not a dumb one, actually. If you. are just competing for the Republican. nomination in 2028,

it's a very simple bet. You know, you. can either, like, try to play all these. play be really cute and try to gesture. toward mainstream Republicans and. independents and then be Maga over here, or you can just go all in on Donald. Trump. And that's just the bet that J.D. Vance has been making since he ran for. Senate in Ohio, you know, six years ago. And it's not a dumb bet in that sense. It's not popular with the most. Americans, but with Republicans who are. going to be voting in the in the. nomination process in 2028, it's not a. stupid play.

>> Totally. I mean, look, he's the sitting. Vice President of the United States. right now. There there is also, and this. is kind of a the really cynical. perception of this, there is also a. world in which something like this gets. leaked, this idea that the. administration is throwing its full. weight behind JD Vance, which only. further emboldens JD Vance to keep being. the front guy for this administration, for to keep being a heat shield for all. of the unpopular policies it sets out, giving him this idea that if he does it, he's got, you know, the um.

he's got the the seal of approval from. from Trump himself. And they don't have. to abide by that. Like a story in MS now. where somebody in the administration. leaked that JD Vance is their guy, and. so just keep doing what you're doing, kid. It's going to It's going to work. out in the end. Like that's not binding. And so there's a world in which this. could be just the administration um. giving Vance the fuel he needs to. continue, uh uh you know, landing in. this for Trump. >> Yeah, and I think you're exactly right.

This administration, a lot of. administrations are like this. They care. about winning new cycles. Donald Trump. in particular only cares about the last. good headline or the last bad headline. or the last person to talk to him in the. room or the last poll number he just. saw. And you know, before the memorandum of. understanding was signed with Iran, uh or negotiated rather, you know, remember like a couple weeks ago every. single day Donald Trump would wake up, call a reporter, and say, uh we're going. to fix the war by tonight, you know, and. the markets would go up, and the price.

of oil would go down, and you know, then. we would bomb Iran again after the. markets closed. And then we'd do it all. over again the next day. And so, yeah, look, these people. politicians, not everyone, but a lot of. them, they are just addicted to the. game. And if Donald Trump just keeps. feeding uh you know, J.D. Vance little. breadcrumbs every single day, in Trump's. mind, you know, Trump's like, "Okay, send him out there. We're going to war. every single day. We got to win new.

cycles." And then if you're J.D. Vance, you're like, "Thank you, sir. May I have. another?" Because you're just an addict. and you want to be the next president of. the United States. You'll do whatever he. says. >> Yeah. I think that's exactly right. Um to that. end, on this idea of being the next. president of the United States, let's. talk about the other side of the aisle. Democrats are engaged in um choosing. early primary states right now at the. DNC. Give give us a lay of the land of. where that lies and what the. implications are of the states that have. been chosen.

>> So, yeah, for people watching and. listening, this this sounds like inside. baseball. But for years, the first two states in both the. Republican side and the Democratic side. were Iowa and New Hampshire. And they. were flawed for many reasons and and New. Hampshire is still in the mix and I'll. tell you who who the first four states. are going to be in a moment, but you. know, for Democrats, the problem there. was, one, Iowa, and we saw this in 2020, was a caucus, and so you only had the. most highly engaged people showing up. and it was easy to kind of game the.

room. I mean, Brian, like you've been. out there, you go in a caucus room and. you'd like in a high school gym or a. church basement and you sort of haggle. with people to come to your corner. It's. just like a very weird process. And in. 2020, it was mismanaged and no one knew. for days who won. And you what you need. in these early states is momentum. You. need to show a win. Barack Obama in Iowa. in 2008, great example. Um the states. are also very white. And look, Democrats. do need to win back white. voters in flyover country, rural voters, non-college white voters. But inside the.

Democratic Party, you know, black. voters, uh Latinos are extremely important. And. so, the DNC right now is reorganizing. the early state calendar and granting. windows to certain states to go first. And New Hampshire is still there, but. they're not going to be the first in the. nation primary anymore. Even though they. have a law on the books in New Hampshire. that says they have to go first. They. have this very precious little law that. they abide by, and it pisses off. everyone else in the DNC every year.

They're like, "No, no, no, we get to go. first." And everyone hates New. Hampshire. >> [laughter]. >> But, they do have that little small. retail aspect of the state, which is. which is pretty valuable. You can. hand-to-hand combat retail politics, town halls, tough questions. There's. value there. And importantly, it's cheap to run in New Hampshire. You. don't have to have a bajillion dollars. to spend on TV ads like you would in a. big state. So, anyway, the DNC, uh, on Thursday and Friday began. ratifying a new calendar. Um, the first. four states are going to be either. Nevada and South Carolina going first,

and then New Hampshire and Michigan. They're also talking about adding two. more states for a total of six. And it. sounds like, as of now, when we're. recording this on Friday, uh, New Mexico. and Virginia will be added to that first. window, which is interesting. Um, New. Mexico, obviously, border state, Latinos. But, the real competition, um, at least heading into the weekend. was which one, Nevada or South Carolina. I think South Carolina is going to end. up being first. Biden, after he won, uh,

asked Jaime Harrison, the chairman of. the DNC, to put South Carolina first. instead of Iowa, partly because South. Carolina ratified Biden's victory in. 2020. The majority of primary voters in. that state are black. And, uh, it's in. the wake of the Cale ruling, which. really, you know, gutted the Voting. Rights Act. All these southern states. are trying to redistrict and and, uh, eliminate black political participation. It's a really hard look for the DNC to. take away, uh, the first state, uh, being a black.

majority voting state, take it away from. South Carolina, but Nevada, uh, also in. the mix. >> All right. So, I I I this go this. question goes against. everything I stand for because people. will ask me, "What do you think about. 2028?" And and the answer that I give. and the answer that I believe is like we. don't have the luxury of being able to. pretend that this is politics as usual. You know, we have an election that Trump. and Republicans are trying to undermine. right now. We've seen the extent to. which they're trying to. >> a theme This is a big theme for you.

You're very consistent. >> Yeah, and like and I believe it. And. like I I know that they're going to try. to interfere in the election. There's no. empirical evidence that would suggest. that Donald Trump does not want to. interfere in this election, but I have. to ask because we're talking about the. primaries, uh, and we've got you. And. so, what do you think the implications. are for specific candidates? Who does. this benefit the most and who does this. hurt the most ahead of 2028? >> Um, this came up a lot in my reporting. this week for Puck. I was calling around. to members of the DNC who were involved. in the voting process.

The final fight for the first slot, you know, was between Nevada and South. Carolina, which was sort of, you know, imagined as a fight between. black political power in South Carolina. and Latino voting power in Nevada. Now, that's pretty simplistic in a couple. ways. Um, you know, Nevada is also a. huge labor state. I think like 10% of. the electorate is black in Nevada. They. have a uh, you know, black party chair. Um, likely their next governor will be. black. So, it's not like purely, you.

know, black, brown. Um, but. because of labor uh, and because of its, uh, you know, large Latino population, a. lot of DNC members thought that it, you. know, if AOC runs, Nevada would be a. very good state for her. Now, that's. spooked the more sort of moderate. traditional old heads on the DNC who. never liked Bernie, don't like DNC or. sorry, DSA style progressives, and so. their thinking is South Carolina should.

go first because as we know, uh you. know, black political power in the South. is where the sort of Bernie movement, the Bernie style of politics ran into a. wall twice because, you know, it's had a. it's had a hard time expanding into um. uh black communities or Bernie Bernie. never caught on with them. And so that's. sort of the thinking. And then again, with New Hampshire, you know, Mayor Pete. um who's good at the small town town. hall, he's been polling very well in New. Hampshire. But so was AOC, by the way.

And so I think this gets to your point, Brian. It's so hard to game out right. now. >> Yeah. If there's like a purely like just. pick two people, um. You know. >> Let's let's. >> Josh Shapiro and AOC, like like you. could game this out, but you can't you. can't. And another one more wild card. that I think is important is that. Michigan is replacing Iowa in the. Midwest cuz everyone's done with Iowa. and all their. screw-ups. Michigan. >> Mhm. >> I think is a good state because you've. got uh black voters in Detroit. You've.

also got the sort of Reagan Democrats. outside in and around Detroit that. Democrats need to win back, right? From. the from the Trump era. You've got rural. voters. Um you can drive across the. state. It's a it's it's it's a good. state, but you've also got. this Gaza-Israel debate, which obviously. is a huge issue in the Democratic Party. And the DNC members that I talked to, um you know, including Debbie Dingell, were like, "Democrats need to not run. away from these debate. They need to. learn how to talk to these voters, find consensus and figure out how to win.

there." And so, um you know, if you are. if you're Josh Shapiro, by the way, or. Rahm Emanuel, you know, you're more more. slightly more pro-Israel than other. Democrats, like that could be a Michigan. could be tough for them with the huge. Arab and Muslim population in and around. Detroit. And remember, like I think 10. 11% of the vote went to uncommitted. against Biden. uh back in 2024 uh you know, as Gaza was. flaring. So, but again, I think rather. than hide from it, Democrats need to. just. go into those communities and have tough.

conversations. And that's why I think. the DNC put Michigan up up there, too. >> Last question here, Hamby, and that is. that is talk to us about you getting the. scoop of the scoop of the year over at. Puck [laughter] because we have some new. news on the on the NBA scene. Talk about. that for a sec. >> Yeah, speaking of Josh Shapiro, I. reported. gosh, what have been like 10 days ago. that Shapiro bumped into LeBron James at. a at a dinner in New York. And I heard. by the way, I'm proud of this scoop cuz. it came from more of an NBA person than.

a political person. But LeBron James, free agent as you know, signed with the Sixers on Friday. And I. reported several days ago that Josh. Shapiro like privately was like wooing. LeBron to come to Philly. And we know. Shapiro is a huge sports fan. He goes on. Philly talk radio to talk about the. Eagles. Like he gets sports. He's a he's. a real junkie for this stuff. So, LeBron signs with Philly, signs with the. Sixers on Friday. And. Shapiro is not really taking a victory. victory lap, but he did declare.

LeBron James Day in Philadelphia. And. everyone everyone. >> [laughter]. >> everyone on Twitter and X is like, oh my. god, he's he's up for re-election this. year. He's going to win by 60 points. Like people are hyped. Like it's a big. He's not again, he's not taking credit. for it. But he can wink at people who. are giving him credit. And you know, it's it's a it's a it's a W. >> He's attached himself to this pretty. pretty loudly, I think. Well, look, I think for for anybody who. wants to to get these kind of scoops, not just in the basketball world, but. also the political analysis which is.

second to none, please make sure to. subscribe. to Puck. I'm going to put the link to. I'm going to put the link to Puck itself. in the post description of this video. Or if you're listening on the podcast in. the show notes. But I'm also going to. put a link to uh YouTube show right here. on the screen and in the post. description as well. So, if you're not. yet subscribed, please go ahead and. subscribe. Peter, appreciate your time, man. >> Thanks, buddy. I really appreciate it. Yeah, everyone subscribe to The Powers. That Be podcast on YouTube. I appreciate. your help. Thanks, Brian.

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