🚨 Trump voters ABANDON him in droves in SHOCK update

I'm joined now by datadriven journalist, writer of the strengthen numbers. newsletter, Elliot Morris. Elliot, thanks for joining me. >> Hey, thanks, Brian. >> So, we have some major news here with. regard to Donald Trump's approval. rating. Can you speak about the new. update we've just gotten? >> Sure. Well, so last week the big survey. came out as the new Pew Research Center. survey. Now, um the Pew Research. Centers, they're a nonprofit public. polling firm based out of Washington DC. Their job is to come to the best. possible measurements of public opinion. in America on timely topics. though, uh, it's a neutral source. That's, uh, the.

big takeaway here on on how Pew works. Their new survey last week, they find. Donald Trump slumping to a 38% approval. rating overall. Um, that's among all. American adults, so it includes voters. and non- voters. That's down from 47% at. the beginning of Donald Trump's term. Um, so it's an all-time low for them. And then in our average of polls, so Pew. and other polls, you don't have to take. Pew at their word. Um, Trump is also at. an all-time low for his second term.

>> What about with young people? Because I. know that was an like a particular focus. of this poll where the results weren't. uh exactly in line with the rest of the. results. >> Yeah. So, young people, they were a big. story of the 2024 election. You remember. young people, those are voters under 30. They supported Joe Biden by nearly 30. points in the 2020 election. Uh by 2024, they had moved about 20 points towards. Republicans. They barely supported Kla. Harris in that election. Um so this is a. group that you want to look at because. they're important. They're big and.

they're moving to the right. Um so among. the young people who supported Donald. Trump, Pew finds uh that just 69% of. them support of uh of the job that Trump. is doing as president today. So you. might say Trump has lost 30% of the. young voters that voted for him, these. are Trump supporting young people only. uh you know a little less than 3/4 of. them still are on his side. So, does it. seem like these folks who moved these. cohorts, these demographic groups that. moved toward Donald Trump in 2024, it.

would suggest then that these are not. necessarily triedand-true Republicans. that it's that their their support for. him may seemingly have just been. temporary and that and that they're not. necessarily Republican voters who are. going to vote for Republicans in the. future. Certainly not if they disapprove. of the job that that he and his party. are doing. >> Yeah. Yeah. So, a lot of the Trump. voters, I might say, that were young. people in 2024, but were Biden voters in. 2020, they're not Republicans. They. might vote for Republicans, but they. don't identify as strong Republicans. They might not be firmly in that camp in.

the next election. Uh we think that for. a couple of reasons. First, on policy. preferences, they're not conservative. Um they favor a lot of wealth. distribution in particular. They favor. high taxes on wealthy people. Um and. they are also oppo opposed to a lot of. the action um in the Middle East, especially in Israel and Gaza. So um. that's not necessarily a conservative. policy package. It's not the policy. package of Donald Trump. Um on some of. the particular issues of Trump's. presidency as well in Pew's survey, uh.

overall Trump is underwater and he's. even more underwater with young people. So for example, 61% opposed of the. tariffs that he's putting into place and. the one big beautiful bill act that's. the Republican budget that passed last. month. That's underwater by 14 points. and it's underwater with young people, too. So, um, they're not Republicans. They're not, you know, they're not. Trumpers. I I think that they voted for. Donald Trump in 2024 because inflation. was bad and economic mobility was was. really poor. That means that, hey, if.

inflation goes back up for Trump, they'll swing back the other direction. >> Well, the latest polling that I had seen. on inflation was that Trump's numbers on. inflation are virtually tied with Joe. Biden's lowest point on inflation when. he was president. numbers that were so. bad that it pushed virtually the entire. country, including those young people. that you're talking about, over to. Trump. >> Yeah, that's right. And we did an. analysis of this on the newsletter. Um, strengthened numbers. So, in peak. inflation in Joe Biden's term, that's. late 2022 to early 2023. Joe Biden had a.

minus 28 toUS 22, there's some noise, approval rating, uh, among all adults. So, like, you know, 60% of people are. saying they disapprove of how he's doing. and 30% are saying they approve. That's. pretty terrible and it makes sense why. he was eventually forced out um of. running for running for re-election. So. minus 22 to - 28 and Trump is at minus. 27 today. So his approval rating on the. economy on inflation and jobs is as bad. as Joe Biden's was during peak. inflation. And that's just to say like.

this is still an anchor around the. president's neck even though we've. switched parties in control of the White. House. How are you thinking about the. broader economic numbers in terms of in. in terms of our sprint toward 2026 here? >> Yeah, well, you know, look, it looks. like inflation is resurging. There was. the new uh producer price index numbers. that came out last week. Um there will. be new CPI numbers out soon and uh they. showed a resurgence in inflation ticking. up to, you know, nearly 3% at an. annualized rate. For context, the the.

Fed, the Federal Reserve likes to keep. that around 2%. And we were getting. close to 2% and now it's going back up. So, um, that makes sense. Like tariffs. are a tax on consumers. Businesses get. charged money by the government. They. have to make up that money somehow so. that the business doesn't lose money. We're the ones that pay for that. So, um, you know, it is an inflationary. policy. It looks like inflation will. start heading up as uh more companies. have have to price in those tariffs and. pass the costs along to consumers or. they would go out of business. And hey,

for the record, like Donald Trump keeps. increasing the tariff rate. He's not. turning around here in the face of. rising inflation. Um and a softening job. market. We saw, you know, uh. 45,000 jobs were gained between May and. and July, which is uh near all-time low. for a 3-month period. >> Uh America lost 37,000 manufacturing. jobs since April. The exact industry. that Trump says he's trying to shore up. So, uh weakening job market, increasing.

inflation. I imagine that's going to be. a pretty big draw on, uh on Trump's. approval rating. Well, I'm curious how. this presents itself with Americans. because in the leadup to the 2024. election, you saw a very aligned, coordinated right-wing media ecosystem, exploit the the every time went up by. one single penny. Like, they are very. good at at being coordinated, echoing. their messages, and making sure that. they're promoting all of this stuff. because it would help their political. agenda. Uh, the left does not have um a.

a a coordinated media ecosystem. The. left is not putting hundreds of millions. of dollars behind telling you that that. eggs have gone up too two pennies or. that rent is too high, housing is too. high, groceries are too high, which was. the case in the 2024 election. And so. they were getting hit over the head with. a lot of this political advertising in. the leadup to the 2024 election. And. we're not seeing the same thing. Partially because we don't have, you. know, that kind of an ecosystem and. partially because there's so much other. going on. We've got troops.

deployed. We've got the Epstein stuff. we've got we've got uh uh the the the. maps being gerrymandered and so there's. so much to talk about that that you know. cost going up um and this 3.3% inflation. rate kind of feels like the fifth. biggest or eighth biggest or 10th. biggest story in America right now but. I'm curious whether that is still. presenting itself if Americans are still. feeling the effects of that inflation. even if they're not being hit over the. head with it by political advertising in. very much the same way that Republicans. were able uh to do in the leadup to the.

previous election. >> Yeah. So, the political scientist in me, I guess, wants to say that like voters. feel the prices regardless of the. signals that they get from the media. ecosystem. But as you and I think your. analysis of the media ecosystem is spot. on, as you raised, like there is an. asymmetric. environment in terms of passing along. information about inflation to lots of. voters. And there's lots of voters who. aren't particularly cost pressured, right? like they have more than enough. money to pay an extra 20 cents per eggs,

but they really really hate inflation. because they get that signal from uh. their partisan news networks. So, um I I. think that does play a role here. And I. imagine that Joe Biden and Kla Harris. would have fared a little better if they. didn't have that uh partisan news. ecosystem that's asymmetric and stacked. against them. But look, like 10%. inflation rate is still going to doom. the incumbent party. So, I wouldn't have. imagined necessarily the outcome to. change today. What that means, right, what that means is that it's going to. take a little bit longer for there to be.

a backlash against Trump than there was. against Biden, even if you have the same. inflation rate. Maybe that's how it. should be. And Joe Biden was unfairly. punished and Trump's getting a fair. shake. I don't think so. I think it's. more like there's a whole media. ecosystem that's covering for the. president of the United States because. they have an interest in him staying in. power. So, um, look, we'll see. Like, I. don't think we're going to get a 10%. inflation rate. It might be more like. 5%. But people already hate inflation. So, even if it goes up to 5%. There. could be some pretty severe electoral.

consequences for that. This might be. getting a little wonky, but I I presume. that the reason that the Fed is not. lowering the interest rates is because. we already have hot inflation, and so. lowering the interest rates would make. that even higher, would send that even. higher. Um, do you presume that that's. what we would see if and when Trump's. when either the Fed under Jerome Powell. or Trump's replacement, if we get to. that point, uh, decides to lower the. interest rates that we'll see inflation.

rates surge even higher? And wouldn't. that be if that is what happens? Wouldn't that be completely antithetical. to what what the incumbent party would. want given what we just saw happen in. November of 2024? Yeah, this is the. tricky part about being Jerome Pal. This. is the hard thing about being the Fed is. you have a dual mandate. You want to. keep inflation down, but you also want. to keep the job market healthy. So, um. if we get to the point where interest. rates are making it hard for companies. to hire, they need to take on debt to. hire new people in a lot of in a lot of. cases. Um or there's not enough movie.

money moving around in the economy. So, these companies are having a hard time. paying new employees, then they got to. decrease the interest rate to get that. money moving again. Um and that means. inflation might go up a little bit. and. uh they're constantly making that. recalculation. It looks like there will. be interest rate cuts later this year. They just haven't happened yet. The. market is definitely pricing in um I. think like 50 bips basis points, 0.5% of. an incest rate cut this year. So, I do. expect we'll see it. It's not going to. be enough for Donald Trump. He's still.

going to want that interest rate to be. 2% instead of, you know, four and a half. or 5%. But, um I guess that's a job for. a drone pal, not for me. If you're a. Democratic operative looking at the. polling right now, what numbers spark. your interest and what do you look to. exploit as we head toward this next. election cycle? Because I know that I. know that there's a market difference. between okay, let's talk about, you. know, let's talk about something because. it's in the news and it's a juicy story, but it may not move people at all. versus, you know, this is this may not.

get a lot of attention. Maybe the. economic stuff, but clearly we've seen. we've just gone through an entire. election where the economic numbers and. inflation have a massive impact even if. they're the fifth or sixth or seventh. biggest story in the country. >> Yeah. The biggest story to voters is. still jobs and inflation. Um, that's the. thing that Democrats want to exploit. It's a very easy narrative. The. president has been out there saying he's. going to uh he's he's going to pass all. these new tariffs. It's going to. increase prices, but he said that this.

will be short-term pain necessary for. America's national security. He said the. word short the phrase short-term pain to. people. I think that's very exploitable. by the Democrats to say like. >> uh it's not producing the desired goal. which is right to onshore manufacturing. here in the United States. we're losing. manufacturing jobs and prices are going. up. This is a pretty obvious L in terms. of policy for the president. So I I. would probably be exploiting that. especially again because it's the number. one issue to voters. The other thing is.

we're seeing a resurgence in civil. rights and civil liberties um as they. are important to people in America. That. makes sense, I think, given um. everything that's that's happening with. uh you mentioned troops being deployed. to cities. That's that's one aspect of. it. I think um the immigration. enforcement, especially deportations, has gone too far uh for the average. American. So, they see that as a civil. rights infraction, too. And there's some. ground for Democrats to persuade on that. issue. But I would expect the bulk of. their messaging is going to be on. inflation and jobs.

>> And the flip side of that question, if. you're a Republican operative and you're. looking at the numbers right now, what. gives you some hope? What are what are. what are Trump and Republicans going to. be leaning on based on the polling. moving forward? So the strongest issue. for Republicans is still immigration. Uh. they're underwater, but that is their. strongest issue. You want to fight on. your strongest issue. So, you know, if. you ask people, do you approve of how. the president is handling deportations. or immigration in general? About 45% say. yes. 52% uh say no, they don't approve. If you ask them uh for example, do you.

support how the president's handling. border security or tackling crime? Then. people start to be more forgiving of the. incumbent party. They'll say they. approve at slightly higher rates than. they say they disapprove. So, I imagine. we'll get a lot of focus on border. security. I live in Washington DC, so I. see the Border Patrol agents walking. around here filming Tik Toks. Weird. I. imagine we're going to see a heck of a. lot more of that as the election kicks. up, too. Just weird that national law. enforcement is doing like social media. videos. This is strange. >> Yeah. Well, this is the dystopian.

hellscape that we enjoy now. Um Elliot, as always, thank you so much for for. your time. highly recommend for anybody. who's watching right now. Um, if you are. interested in this kind of uh data. analysis, please subscribe to Strength. and Numbers. I'm going to put the link. right here on the screen and also in the. post description of this video. It is a. great resource that I use every single. week. Um, and it's a great way to. support independent media as well. So. again, links on the screen and also in. the post description. Elliot, thanks for. your time. >> Thanks for having me here, Brian.