Trump hit with BAD NEWS ahead of upcoming election

I'm joined now by the head of data. science at VoteHub, Zach Danini. Zach, thanks so much for joining me. I wanted. to talk to you because a, I'm a huge fan. of the work that you and VoteHub do, and. it's especially important right now. because we're seeing a new round of. um of election denialism happening, but. it's happening starting in California, which seems to me to show that Trump. doesn't have a lot of isn't isn't very. discerning about how he deploys his. election denial claims, but from the. perspective of somebody who works in. data science, can you speak about these.

claims of election denialism that are. happening in LA and California more. broadly? >> Yeah, so I think something that, you. know, I want to start by saying is uh. counting is truly very, very slow in. California, right? Even compared to, you. know, other West Coast states that count. their mail-in ballots late, uh we're. talking about only about half the vote. being counted on election night. And. those votes are counted in roughly. chronological order, and different. people hold their ballots and return. them earlier and later. It's different.

populations. And I think, you know, from. my position, I try to, you know, understand that that is like not exactly. intuitive to people who don't. obsessively follow elections like me, um. but it also, you know, is we try to. communicate that because we know what. those shifts are roughly going to look. like to people. >> On that point, you know, there have been. a lot of Republicans who've come forward. and said, "Well, that kind of a system breeds distrust.". My pushback to that is that the system.

doesn't breed distrust. The system is. what it is. We allow a lot of different. avenues for people to vote and for those. votes to be counted. What breeds. distrust is the people who breed. distrust. It's the people who come. forward and say that, you know, when. there is election day votes that are. counted first and then mail-in ballots, which skew overwhelmingly. uh Democratic, when those come in after. and the vote total shifts from a redder. electorate to a bluer electorate, we're. inevitably going to see. um you know, we're going to see. Democrats do better and better as more.

votes are counted. I think that's what. undermines trust in the elections, but. from from your vantage, having looked at. both the California system and the rest. of the country, can you give a sense of what you think. when people say that a system like the. one we have in California breeds. distrust? >> Yeah, so so I I I do think in general it. is you know, it is just tough for. people, you know, in in a lot of states. they wake up and they see someone's. losing by what 1% or something on. Wednesday morning. And maybe they think, oh, this is close, they could come back. You know, in California that can be 10. or 12%. And someone come back. So it the.

system in California is, you know, it is. a bigger number than what we're seeing. everywhere else. But a falsehood that is. just really frustrating I think that. we've had to deal with in the last week. is this idea that these late mail. ballots always favor Democrats. Um, I. you know, recently this week, you know, posted about, you know, an election that. I was in charge of covering in 2022 when. it was a Republican candidate, David. Schweikert in Arizona, who was losing by. double digits with 70% of the vote. counted in Arizona House.

District 1 in 2022, and he came back and. won, right? You know, it goes both ways. and and I think it's important, you. know, for people to try to bring those. facts to light so people aren't getting. a warped picture of what happens. >> In terms of the broader election coming. up now, as we look toward midterms, can. you give me your sense of where we stand. as far as the Senate is concerned? >> Yeah, so the Senate is uh, in an. interesting situation because there are. kind of two different sets of states.

Uh, we have Maine, Michigan, North. Carolina, and Georgia. Uh, these are. states that were were close, uh, maybe. Trump won them by a little, in the case. of Maine, uh, Harris won them. Uh, Democrats kind of need to sweep these. four. And then there are other states, uh, Iowa, Texas, Ohio, and Alaska. All of. these four key all these four states. Trump won by double digits, but. Democrats need to win two about two of. those as well to win control of the. Senate. So, um you know, what this means.

is you know, you have to hold serve in. these races that Democrats should be. winning in a blue environment, and you. have to win a couple races in in states. that will be difficult to win even in a. blue environment with good candidates. >> What does Vote Hub's analysis suggest. would happen, I you know, if the race. were today? >> If the race were today, honestly, we. think Republicans would probably hold. control of the Senate. Right now in our. in our polling average, we have. Democrats ahead of Republicans in. generic ballot polls by 5.4 points. Um.

we actually expect this to shift towards. Democrats considerably the next 6. months. Um our projected uh November. average is D plus 7.2. Um why? Uh. there's just a historic pattern where in. midterm elections, uh you know, the. public sentiment usually shifts towards. the out party in the months leading up. to the election. After even, you know, considering that. shift right now, we give Republicans a. 55% chance to win the Senate. So, so we. I mean, roughly a toss-up, but a very. very narrow, you know, uh you know, uh.

we we have Republicans very narrowly. favored. >> Are there any unforced errors that are. causing um a chance for Republicans to. be more successful than they should be. as far as the Senate map is concerned? >> So, I think um one issue for Democrats. is uh. Maine and Michigan. Uh the you know, candidate quality in these states is is. unclear. I I don't want to say that, oh, the Democrats are going to throw away. these races because of poor candidate.

quality. There's no evidence to to make. you think that will definitely happen, but uh it is important to, you know, consider, you know, Georgia and North. Carolina, you have these battle-tested. candidates Jon Ossoff and Roy Cooper, who we know are very very good at. winning elections and strongly believe. they can do so in such a blue year in. their purple states. Uh Michigan and. Maine, you know, I'm sure Democrats wish. they had a Roy Cooper, wish they had a. Jon Ossoff to run in these states, but. they don't, right? So, there's it's just. more of a question mark. I think 6 years ago people would have.

said Jon Ossoff was, you know, an, you. know, inexperienced candidate without a, you know, track record of winning. elections. Now we view him as real. really strong, you know, we could be. saying the same thing about Graham. Plater in 6 years or we could be saying. in 6 years, well, you know, Graham. Plater lost Maine in a blue mid-term. >> What about the House now? If we go over. to the to the um. to the House as it stands in the. aftermath of redistricting, I believe, if I'm not mistaken, Republicans were. able to net another 12 seats this cycle. as the result of redrawing maps. Does.

that put the Democrats' ability um or. likelihood to retake the House at risk? >> I think it's very important to know that. Democrats are clearly favored to win the. House. If the election was held today, they'd be clearly favored to win the. House. Uh and and again, we expect. things just to shift more towards. Democrats in the next 6 months. Um you. know, I I think I always tell people, you know, American elections are, you. know, surprising things happen a lot, right? You know, an 80% chance of. winning the House, um. you know, means that if you, you know,

flip a coin a couple times and get heads. right now, we think Republicans you. know, could feasibly win the House, but. that something would really have to. change and it would be surprising and. break historical precedent. >> What about in subsequent cycles? Um. what do you foresee as as. the prospect of Democrats redrawing maps. and some of these weapons that haven't. yet been deployed? I'm talking about the. ongoing redraw um in New York, which of. course took a con- will will take a.

constitutional amendment. Um I presume. that we'll see another effort in. Virginia. That one will likely be. successful because the the. technicalities that precluded it from. working in 2026 likely won't present. themselves in 2028. Um there is of. course the ability for California to. redraw again, you know, uh it it. There are I believe seven seats that. that Republicans will still hold in in. this state. So, um the map may very well. look different, especially in the. aftermath of Democrats seeing the extent.

to which Republicans were willing to. engage in this process in Texas, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi. I mean, like uh North Carolina, possibly South. Carolina the next election cycle. So, um. what what can that look like? And is. there And I guess the broader question. is like, is there a world where. Democrats can actually come out on top. if they're willing to fight fire with. fire and be aggressive here, as. aggressive as Republicans have been? >> Yeah. So, first of all, I think um we.

have seen that Democrats are willing to. fight fire with fire. In the uh 2022. redistricting cycle, I like to remind. people in 2022 and 2024, the House had a. pro-Democratic bias, right? You know, Democrats uh were the House had a. pro-Republican bias throughout the. 2010s. The Democrats, you know, and in. Illinois, Oregon, Nevada, New Mexico, uh. they basically said, you know, we're. done with this, and they actually kind. of out redistricted Republicans in 2022. and 2024. 2026 cycle, as you know, I'm.

sure everyone listening to this knows. was a big win for Republicans. Um. probably about seven to eight seats in a. neutral environment. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Um but now Republicans are now kind of. tapped out in a lot of their states. Uh. another one I'll throw out there you. didn't mention is Colorado. That's a 4-4. map right now. It's very easy to draw a. new 8-0 map for Democrats in Colorado. Um so so Republicans are are now like. kind of, you know, maximally. uh gerrymandered in a lot of their.

states. They of course always, you know, have a few more districts they can knock. off in, you know, South Carolina, even. go back to Alabama, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska. Uh but Democrats now have a. lot more outstanding in Illinois, New. York, Washington, Colorado. Um so, uh. we'll we'll see how that develops. Um. it's it's uh. made it so that Democrats do need quite. a blue environment to win the US House. in 2026, but the data right now points. to that blue environment happening.

>> Do you I mean I mean I know this isn't. really within your jurisdiction as a. data scientist, but do you presume based. on what you know about these Democrats. that they There's a difference between. being able to do it, having the. opportunity to do it, and them actually. doing it. And the latter part of that is. is I think what Democrats as. as institutionalists have had more. trouble bringing themselves to do. I. mean, we even heard from J. B. Pritzker. who says, you know, he's told me um in. our interviews about this very topic. He. goes, "I'm on team fight." But then.

decided to hinge. any action in Illinois on on whatever. Indiana did. So, not really as. aggressive as as I think um as I think. he had suggested previously. So, just. judging from what you know about the. Democrats who are in charge here, do you. think that they'd actually be willing to. deploy these tools even though they have. the opportunity to use them? >> Yeah, I will note that Illinois already. has, you know, what I would consider a. pretty heinous gerrymander, right? Both. by test when you look at the map. Um my. home district is a noodle that stretches.

from Champaign to St. Louis. Um and then. it would be, you know, turning it into a. like completely maximal super ugly bacon. mander. Um it would probably actually be. the lowest compactness gerrymander if. Illinois went there, worse even than. anything Republicans have drawn yet. Um. that being said, you of course have. states like uh New York and Colorado who. that are that are blue states that if. anything maybe even have slightly. Republican leaning maps right now. Um.

I I I think I I think odds are. definitely in the favor of Democrats. redrawing in 2028. I think the. Democratic outrage surrounding Voting. Rights Act being gutted by by SCOTUS. this spring was was pretty big and you. know, when when we're talking about ugly maps, right? I think like what happened in. Tennessee really went past a line. honestly that had been held for the most. part by by both sides with the with the. Memphis draw out is is really really. really you know, extreme.

So. >> Last question here. This is a little bit. farther out into the future, but. the prospect of a reallocation of. electoral votes and the impact that that. that's going to have post 2030. As it. stands right now, even Democrats winning. like the blue wall states. in in the Midwest wouldn't be enough to. get them over the finish line. So how do. you foresee that shaking out. given the fact that California will.

likely lose electoral votes. A lot of. these blue states in in the northeast. for example. and and and on the west coast and those. are going to be reallocated towards. states in in the southeast and the. Sunbelt. >> So yeah, something I really try to. communicate with people is there is a. lot of uncertainty surrounding. reallocation. So what this means is you. know, midway through the decade we have. these estimates about how we think. people are moving across the country. from something called the American. Community Survey the ACS. But.

the US Census the full US Census is only. once every 10 years. Based on these. mid-decade estimates, it looks like. reallocation is going to be quite bad. for Democrats. But there's uncertainty around that, right? If this is quite bad, it could be. anywhere from like neutral for Democrats. to like a total disaster where winning. all three blue wall states maybe and. Arizona isn't even enough. So we don't. quite know where it will end up. Um but.

directionally, you know, a best-case. scenario for Democrats at this point is. basically no change. A worst-case. scenario is having to win, you know, two. or two or maybe even three more states. if you think about, you know, Nevada. being pretty small uh in 2032. >> Yeah, I mean, although there is a world. where. I mean, like this is this is like me. doing the thing that I think Democrats. have been doing for the last 20 years. where it's like, maybe Texas is is. poised to flip, but we've been saying. maybe Texas is poised to flip forever,

but but we'll see. I mean, I I, you. know, uh we have a strong candidate in. James Talarico, and perhaps. um if he's able to win, um and there's. such disgust over what the MAGA agenda. has turned into in Texas, and. uh voters there get a sense of like, okay, we stuck our necks out and voted. for this Democrat for the first time, and he's performing well in the Senate, maybe that'll allow them to be more open. to other Democrats in the future. So, look, time will time will tell on that. stuff. Zachary, for those who are.

watching and listening right now, where. can they see and hear more from you? >> Uh you can follow Vote Hub or my name, Zachary Dininni, on X. You can go to our. website at votehub.com. We do a lot of. coverage on election nights. We have a. uh midterms forecast we worked very hard. on. Uh we do a lot of uh scraping of. precinct data so you can see the most. detailed maps as they update in real. time on election night. >> Awesome. Well, I appreciate the work. that you do and uh you taking the time. today. >> Thank you very much for having me on.