Trump gets news he FEARED from his OWN voters

I'm joined now by the founding partner. at Puck News and the host of Good Luck. America at Snap, Peter Hamby. Peter, thanks for joining me. >> Good to see you, buddy. How's the rain. treating you in LA? >> Oh, you know, it's uh I [laughter] I. actually love the the uh the LA rain and. we all say the same thing as soon as it. rains, which is uh you know, the uh the. requisite we needed it. So, uh so I'm. going to jump on that train. Peter, you. wrote a great piece in Puck that I think. signals a lot of concern for not only. Trump but the right more broadly and. that is uh the the movement of Gen Z. men. So can you talk first and foremost.

about your findings from this cohort? >> Yeah, absolutely. I mean this is a sort. of beat that I've been covering going. back to last year. Um you know Brian, you and I are both white millennial. dudes. We have seen uh how the. Democratic Party just overall became. less cool [laughter]. >> uh I hate to say it among you know not. just young men uh but a lot of young. people. Part of that by the way is is. the Bernie left who you know when Bernie. ran for president 2016 um on a real.

populist message got a lot of currency. with young people and also exposed I. think a lot of the distrust with both. parties among young people. So, there's. that. And then more recently, obviously, we've seen Trump make a lot of cultural. appeals to young men. This was happening. when I was visiting college campuses. last year uh for my Snapchat show, Good. Luck America, just interviewing uh. voters under 30, college students about. the election, and it was clear that. there was going to be some shift from. Biden to Trump last year. Um, and it.

happened. Trump narrowly won young men. in exipoles and the pew validated voter. study after the election sort of proved. this out. That hadn't happened. I don't. remember the last time it would have. happened. Maybe George W. Bush at some. point, but uh a huge swing from. Democrats to Donald Trump last year. Now. in the uh offy-ear elections last week, two weeks ago now, Brian, Virginia, New. Jersey, New York, here in California, um. young men switch back, at least. according to exit polls, which you know. need to be revised and analyzed a little.

bit. But I'll read you the uh exit poll. numbers. So in Virginia, Abigail. Spanberger won men under 30 by 14. points. Mikey Cheryl in New Jersey won. them by 10 points. Zoron Mdani obviously. in New York when Gen Z men by 40 point. margin. And out here in California where. Gavin Newsome was running the Prop 50. campaign, uh [laughter] young men voted. yes on 50 by a 52 point margin. So those. are big numbers. But the the reason I. wrote this piece that you referenced, I'm glad you wanted me on to talk about.

it is that when things like this happen, these shifts among young people, I call. up John Devulpe, who I've known from the. Kennedy School at Harvard for a very. long time. He has a great Substack that. everyone should read called JDV on Gen. Z. Just Google that. But he runs a. tracking poll of young men specifically. with breakouts by race and gender, etc., and issue sets. Here's what's most. important that he's found since Trump uh. came into office. And I'll read these. two so hopefully it doesn't sound too. boring. But in February after Trump was.

inaugurated and sworn in, uh independent. young men, so young men who identify as. independents, gave Trump a 50% approval. rating. That's good. 34% disapprove. But. that support has just been totally. erased. Now 8 months later, Social. Sphere John's poll found that only 31%. of independent young men approve of. Trump. That's a 36 point net shift. But. here's what's really interesting about. all of this, and this goes back to last. year. The number one issue among young.

men. Yes, there's some cultural aspects. to this. Yes, Trump goes to UFC fights. Yes, he talked about like Zen on the. campaign trail and crypto. People like. Trump, but it's really the economy. It's. prices. It's cost of living. It's access. to the economy. This is true for all. young people. Housing, gas, grocery. prices, just the fundamentals. And so, if you look at this poll, Trump's. support has really collapsed, too. On. this one question, Brian, do you expect. Donald Trump's presidency to make a.

positive or negative difference in your. life? So, in January, 55% of young men, a healthy majority, said yes, Trump was. going to make a positive impact on our. lives. By October, just a few weeks ago, only 24% of young men said the same. thing. And so, this isn't new, by the. way. These I can talk more in a second. about how when this started to shift, and I think it was kind of around the. tariffs uh back in March and April, but. it's just very clear that young men.

trusted Trump last year, probably more. than Biden, definitely more than Biden. and Kla Harris. Gave him the benefit of. the doubt, but that went away very. quickly. very quickly and the results of. that were borne out in the elections. Again, not totally emblematic of the. rest of the country in these states and. cities last week or two weeks ago, but. still a huge and meaningful shift just. proving that young men are a swing vote. kind of like Latinos. doesn't mean. Democrats have them back, which is what. I'd like to hear your take on, Brian, but it it's not like a a proof point.

that they're back in the Democratic. fold, but it does show that Democrats. have some opportunity to make a pitch to. young men again and be like, we can. actually make a meaningfully positive. difference in your lives, unlike Trump. and and his MAGA crew. >> No, I think that's exactly right. And I. think when when you look at how these. kids came up, which is really in in Joe. Biden's economy in the aftermath of CO. or or or in the middle of CO during. Trump's presidency, the real the reality. is the economy has never worked for any. of these Gen Z men. Never worked for Gen.

Z, never worked for for any any young. people. And so it doesn't surprise me. that when they heard Trump be the first. president to make a truly populist pitch. in an era where prices were so high and. America was so unaffordable, of course. they glombmed on to it. Of course, they. believed him. What they didn't know, because maybe they were too young to. remember his first term, where he also. ran as a populist, promising a middle. class tax cut that never materialized, an infrastructure law that never. materialized, uh a jobs boom that never.

materialized, a manufacturing. renaissance that never materialized, is. that this is what Trump does. He. promises the world and then when he gets. into office, he delivers a tax cut for. millionaires and billionaires. But but. the reality is that that, you know, they. they saw Trump make that appeal. They. saw that the Democrats were in power and. and it doesn't surprise me at all that. they wouldn't believe the Democrats and. that they would shift over to Trump. Now, Democrats have the opportunity to e. exploit the fact that that they. recognize that Trump was not telling the. truth. That he promised lower costs and. and cheaper housing and rent and.

groceries and eggs and all he did was. launch a trade war that sent the cost of. everything skyrocketing. all the while. surrounding himself with gold leafing in. the Oval Office, buying himself a couple. of Gulfream jets, retrofitting a guitar. jet to the tune of a billion dollars, building a $350 million ballroom, hosting Great Gatsby party. So, the. optics are really bad. But the question. I have for you here is that this is all. very much a referendum on Trump, as we. would expect in, you know, in in a. midterm cycle where where uh you have a.

Republican president in power. that's. that's who those the the subsequent. elections are going to be a referendum. on. What kind of an impact do you think. that this is going to have among yes. Jenzy men, but but everybody more. broadly in terms of Republicans and not. just Donald Trump because Trump's a lame. duck president uh or at least you know. he should be a lame duck president who. knows what he's going to try and do. But. what kind of lasting impact do you think. this is going to have on the GOP's. brand? Or do you think they're going to. get a pass and any eye that's aimed at.

Republicans right now is just going to. fall in the lap of Trump? >> The big picture here, and you inflicted. this a little bit, Brian, is that any. sitting president facing an economy that. doesn't feel uh, you know, affordable. enough for everyday people is is going. to have huge problems. I mean, it's it's. always this goes back to Bill Clinton, you know, uh it's the economy, stupid, but there was a recession when he run. won in 1992. It really hurt George uh HW.

Bush at the time. When George W. Bush. left office, yes, there was a rock. Yes, there was Katrina, but there was a. worldwide financial collapse. And with. Biden last year, like we saw just how. much the cost of living Yeah. drove down. his his his numbers and inflation, too. It's very easy. You know the cliche is. you campaign in poetry and you govern in. pros. In other words, it's easy to say. things on the campaign trail. It's easy. to pull people by the heartstrings once. you get in office. Much harder to. govern. Just much more latitude in.

government. It's clunky. Um and so Trump. is just being very quite obviously to me. punished for promising easy solutions to. things that are very complicated. And by. the way, speaking of young men, ending. the wars was a big thing too with that. demo. Um, the wars are still going on. I. know there's a ceasefire. [laughter]. >> Going on. >> Releasing the Epstein files is another. another. >> that's another one. And look, I think. there's a lot to talk about when it. comes to Republicans as you asked. Um,

and I think the larger question is can. they carry like forward without like it. or not Trump's charisma, his sense of. humor, his personality, like you know, you might not like it, but people think. he's funny and interesting. He's a. superstar. The rest of the people that, you know, are on these 2028 Republican. polls, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, you know, you name them. Ted Cruz today, like I. guess was telling Axio he's thinking. about running for president again. Just.

look at the poll numbers. This isn't me. being a yappy pundit. They're just less. popular than he is among Republicans, but more importantly less popular among. independent voters, less popular in. swing states. They're just not cool. I'm. sorry. I'm not. And that's not to say. Democrats are cool and cool isn't the. only thing that matters. I don't think. anyone's walking around saying that. Abigail Spanberger is [laughter]. like lighting the world on fire with her. charisma. Um, but I I just think it's. going to be very difficult if Trump.

can't, you know, make things. meaningfully cheaper for any other. Republican to follow him and then win. because Trump could always pivot can. always pivot to the showmanship. And. going back to last year and why he won, this is a this is a a piece of of the. puzzle. it's that he used, you know, obviously there's been lots of talk. about the bro podcasters, uh, comedians, um, you know, the Neelkboy types. Uh, he. used sort of these cultural figures and.

cultural nodes, you know, Zen, Upper. Deckis, whatever. Yeah. As an access. point to then say, >> Joe Biden and Kla Harris have failed. you. You know, they've made life more. expensive. I'm the guy at McDonald's. I'm the guy hanging out with the cool. podcasters. I'm the guy who knows. football players and hangs out with Tom. Brady or whatever. And that allowed him. access to talk about those things. Here's something else I will say though, Brian, about the electorate that I.

wanted to point out that you mentioned. and we can move on from it quickly. You. said at the very beginning of of your. last comment that when these kids were. coming up, and I think that's really. important for people watching this who. might be, you know, millennial or older, a lot of people who voted in last year's. election for the first time probably. would have been in elementary or middle. school when Donald Trump came down the. escalator. And so for me, my formative. political years were George W. Bush into. Obama. I remember that. I have a longer.

memory. They don't. And so the only. Democrats they remember running for. president are probably Bernie, Hillary, Biden. Of those three, and they remember. Obama probably, but of those three. choices, you know, Bernie was probably. the most compelling to them. Uh the rest. are sort of old, you know, establishment. Democrats. And Trump, you know, again, I'm channeling young men here. I'm not. channeling young women. Certainly, they're much more liberal. But Trump was. cool to them. And Trump was different.

and Trump has been the only person. they've ever known. But as you point. out, they might not even remember the. first term. Right. Right. Like 2016, 2017, 2018, it's it's about to be a. decade ago. And a lot of these. first-time voters might have been 8 n 10. 11 12 years old. And so coming into last. year's election when the choice was old. guy Biden who seems like he's made. things more expensive or Kla Harris who. I don't really know that well um it it. it made sense that the business guy was. the one who made the most compelling. appeal to that voting group. You know,

the interesting part is I think in. previous election cycles, it felt like. the elasticity of the electorate was was. close to zero. Like there was this tiny. sliver every everybody like both sides. had become so calcified in their. polarization uh in their positions in. their political affiliation and it felt. like everybody was going after an. increasingly small uh really trunch of. the electorate in a few states. I mean, there were like we were looking at like. tens of thousands of people and in a few.

elections that's all that folks had. relied on to win these elections is is. that that small tranch of people in. Georgia, in Arizona, in in Michigan, Pennsylvania, whatever it may be, um do. you feel that based on based on this new. generation and the way that they've. swung so wildly, whether it's Gen Z men, whether it's Latinos or minorities, whatever it may be, that the electorate. right now is way swinging year way more. elastic than what we'd seen in the past.

>> I So like look at the act of polls. again. There were I think 7% of Trump. voters in Virginia in 2024 actually. voted for Abigail Spamberger in Virginia. and Virginia's my home state. >> in 25 in 2025. >> So in 25 right and so you also saw and. this this caused a lot of tweets and a. lot of headlines um I think it was 8 n. 10% of Trump voters in New York City. Yeah, >> in 2024 it went to Zoron in 2025. Uh you.

saw some shift there in in New Jersey as. well. Um Virginia and New Jersey, I'll. speak for Virginia, that's my home. state. Like I grew up there in Richmond. There are more sort of swingy voters. Uh. it looks of all the of all the states. and places that voted last week, Virginia looks the most like the. national electorate. And so they do. exist. I want people watching this to. know like swing voters do exist. And. there's two kinds of voters that really. helped Trump win last year. There were. these swing voters. And in my mind, this.

is just me, but I see a a mom and dad in. suburban Philadelphia, you know, who uh. you know, maybe they pay think they paid. too much taxes or whatever. You know, the typical person that would have been. a Republican before Trump. Those people. feel swingy. Those are the kind of. people in Virginia four years ago who. like the suburban moms and dads who have. college degrees who flipped and went for. Glenn Ynan in Virginia and helped him. win in 2021. The other voter is the drop.

off voter. The people that don't really. pay close attention to politics who, you. know, are tend to be minority voters, um, black and Latino in whatever states, and they, uh, either didn't show up for. Biden, uh, last time or they came off. the couch, as we said during that race. and voted for Donald Trump. And this. gets to a larger point about last week's. elections and the limitations of what we. can say and why and why Democrats.

shouldn't be just taking victory laps. So the elections in Virginia, New. Jersey, New York, and California last. week, these are off-year elections in. the Trump era, the people that tend to. show up for off-year elections and. special elections, you know, for like a. state house seat in Florida or whatever, they tend to be Democrats. They tend to. be highly engaged voters with college. degrees. And that's what the electorates. look like last week. So I pulled this up. before getting on here. Last year in the. presidential race, 43% of voters in the.

country had a college degree and 57% did. not. That's pretty reflective of the. national electorate. In swing states. like Michigan and Pennsylvania, like 36%. of people have a college degree. People. who went to college in this country are. a minority. People who didn't make up a. majority of the people who vote. But. last week in New Jersey, 55% of people. had a college degree. 52% of people in. Virginia had a college degree last week. So the highly engaged voters who showed. up last week and we saw turnout pop on.

college campuses, Virginia Tech, William. and Mary, UVA, and Virginia Tech. I. reported this in my puck piece. Um, and. like turnout outpaced 2024 turnout for. Kamla. Like young people were showing. up. The question is the people showing. up were tend to be the people who vote. Democratic. And so that's why we can't. extrapolate too much from last week's. exit polls. It's because it was a. different kind of electorate than the. one that shows up in a presidential. year, which includes, you know, a lot.

more voters without degrees, more uh, you know, voters of color. And that's a. just a different looking electorate. And. that's the electorate that Trump was. able to tap into. the people who are. just paying attention because it's a. presidential race. It feels really high. stakes. Um there I I quoted a funny. tweet in my article like a lot of the. voters who voted last year in 2024 had. no idea there was even an election. [laughter]. >> last week or two weeks ago in these. states. So that's just something to keep.

in mind that the voters who showed up in. 2025. t tended to have a college degree tended. to care more and of course they were. reacting to Donald Trump and that's also. very important and also why it might be. there might be some limitations to us. being able to slice and dice the. electorate between Latinos and young men. and young women and older voters because. it felt like a wave election uh this. year like like it was just Trump just. got swamped, Republicans got swamped and. so you know yes young men tipped in that.

direction but so did everybody else. It's still meaningful but like I think. we should you know pump the brakes in. terms of you know drawing any huge. conclusions from these four. >> about about what 2028 might look like. for example although I would I would. note that. >> no 2028 I mean I think it's good by the. way I want to say good trajectory for. Democrats like they are sailing into the. midterms winning on the the generic. ballot in a way they weren't even a few. months ago. I think this all bodess well. for 2028. I was getting ahead of myself, Brian, thinking about the [laughter].

next presidential race, maybe because. you mentioned I mentioned. >> I think on that point too, it's. important to note that the very people. who turned out expressly because Trump. was on the ballot because he has a. certain appeal that certainly no other. Republicans have. I mean, Trump will be. able in invariably to turn out people. that Ted Cruz will not be able to turn. out just because, you know, of the of. his charisma and charm. And granted, this is, you know, for folks watching. who say he's not charismatic or. charming, not to you, not to me, but. certainly to a huge portion of the.

electorate. That's why he he's been so. successful. But I I think by virtue of. him not being on the ballot in 2028, there might also be a depressive effect. that that the the otherwise, you know, the the same Republican electorate that. we've seen come out and vote for the. last decade uh won't be as activated to. turn out because when Trump's not on the. ballot, that's the only thing driving a. lot of these people to the polls as. well. And so when you add that to the. fact that Democrats are overperforming, have the opportunity to redefine. themselves and frankly what I hope to.

see is run a lot of people who are going. to take out, you know, the the the folks. who've been there for 20, 30, 40 years. who are right now in their 70s and 80s. You know, when we talk about the. Democratic brand, the brand isn't going. to be fixed when you have an 80year-old. suddenly sit down and do a podcast. The. brand is is reflective of the people who. are in these positions of power. the. brand gets fixed when all of a sudden. some of these older establishment. Democrats, centrist Democrats who've. been there forever, uh, leave office and.

are replaced by people who are who who. can better relate to the to the. electorate that they're there to serve. >> Actually, Brian, let me let me interview. you real quick because I know you've you. we interview Democratic officials, elected officials all the time. Yeah. And it's really I talked to you after. the election last year and I know that. it's really ramped up and also ramped up. for a lot of other progressive creators. I think you know people on the Hill and. governors are finally understanding like. yeah you can't win an election just by. doing a podcast. You have to have.

something to say when you go on those. podcasts but at least they're trying. And I know you've like met privately. with you know some senators and. congressmen. Like is it your sense that. the older cohort there like the the. geriatric set on Capitol Hill like are. they capable of doing this in a in a way. that moves the needle? Like have you. been impressed by some old person who's. like you know other than Bernie? Yeah. >> Who's uh you know embraced new media or. is it just time to get people in there.

who grew up with smartphones in their. pockets once and for all? My goal in. having gone up to Capitol Hill and. talked to elected officials in the. immediate aftermath of the election was. to get the Democratic party more broadly. um to to get them to understand the. importance of independent media. Uh this. is this is a a caucus of people um for. whom CNN and MSNBC was the only you know. and New York Times, Washington Post, like these these these old school legacy. outlets were the only people only. anchors only reporters worth talking to.

And my gripe with them, you know, for. for years prior to that was that you. have to start you have to start focusing. on independent media. You have to start. focusing on digital creators. This is. not only where voters are, but this is. where persuadable voters are. I mean, the notion that you're going to go on. MSNBC and change any hearts and minds is. just completely backwards. You know, obviously love love the MSNBC uh. audience, but like they're 99%. Democrats. And so what's your job here? Is it is it going on TV and getting.

getting you know pats on the head or is. it actually going to talk to voters uh. who may be persuadable uh you know who. who don't have any political affiliation. and so that that was really my my goal. in going up there in terms of you know. answering your question I mean look. there is you can you can. take an up like you can make an uphill. climb and try and teach some of these. these you know older members of Congress. or senators how to use social media and.

there I think there is a ceiling to how. well they're going to be able to break. through like it's just when you have. somebody like Zoran Mani 34 years old. grew up you know is a millennial grew up. in the digital age the the ceiling is is. >> astronomically higher when you compare. uh Zoron to to any 70 or 80year-old uh. um uh senator or lawmaker. I mean, there's just there's just no question. that that somebody who's grown up in. this era will be will be will have like.

a more dynamic approach is going to be. able to understand the kind of language. that works better online. So, like you. know, you know what's you know what's an. interesting point like something I. thought about the last couple weeks both. with Zoron's campaign but also I'm. seeing it more and more from younger. politicians. Um, AFAB Puraval, the mayor. of Cincinnati, did this before the. election, uh, is the man on the street. format where you just go up to people. with a microphone. And in AFAB's case, he went up to, uh, Cincinnati Bearcats. tailgate. My dad went to Cincinnati. Go.

Bearcats. Um, and was just like asking. people about the city, what they like. that he's done. And then Zoron obviously. for almost a year. Yeah. was just. talking to people and not just for him. personally picking up texture about what. voters care about. Um, showing the. viewer that, oh, this person's out there. talking with regular people. And by the. way, don't underestimate the one person. that he interviewed in the street. You. know, going out and asking for. somebody's vote is very important. Like. that's a kind of format Yeah.

>> that younger people can do. Uh, you. mentioned the word dynamic. That feels. like like a dynamic kind of format that. we're going to see more of. um you don't. it's it's harder for Elizabeth Warren to. do that kind of thing. And I get that. they're senators. I get that they have. security. Um so, you know, props to them. for being able to do the selfie video. now, but it's it's just harder for. people of that generation to experiment. I think that's important. >> Yeah, you you're you're going to be. swimming against the tide for sure. And. I mean, again, like there there is a.

there is a ceiling and and look, there's. also a thirst for for folks in the. Democratic. I I think that we have seen. Ruth Bader Ginsburgg die on the Supreme. Court, Jerry Connelly die in office, Joe. Biden, you know, obviously get too old. to be able to effectively prosecute the. case against Trump. And so this issue. has been bubbling beneath the surface. for a long time. You know, I remember. like 10 years ago when I was watching. politics and the Democrats were were. much cooler than they are now. All of. those people are still there. Like. [laughter] they they stay they they're.

not going to get younger. Like they are. only going to continue to age. And so if. they're not replaced by younger people, the party is just going to get older and. older and older. And it has. And there's. also all the incentive structure for for. senior Democrats to stay in off office. because that's how they get their. chairmanships on committees. And so all. of the incentives I think are backwards. And when we had a great opportunity to. have AOC at the top of oversight and. instead Jerry Connelly, who would die. just a few months later of throat. cancer, ran against her and the party. rallied behind Jerry Connelly. Uh I you.

know I think that that's a testament to. to exactly that. And uh and and you know. have they learned their lesson? I I. don't know. But probably not. Um and I. think that the only way they're going to. learn their lesson is is by virtue of. being primared by people who understand. this media environment who are able to. more closely relate to the constituents. that they seek to to serve and who are. younger. Um, so, so you know, a lot a. lot to be seen in terms of what happens. in the upcoming uh, 2026 midterm cycle.

But, you know, if I had to guess, I. would see that we're gonna I would think. that we're going to see something akin. to a Democratic Tea Party uh, moving. forward. So, with that said, Peter, thank you so much for the time. Where. can folks who are watching right now. hear more from you? >> Oh, thanks for the shout out. Uh, yeah, check me out on Snapchat on Good Luck. America. It's I It's our political show. on Snap. Uh, it's really fun. Check it. out there. I also host the Powers That. Be podcast over at Puck and I write. about politics and media and these.

topics specifically uh at our. newsletter, the best and the brightest. So check that out at puck.news. Brian, good to see you, buddy. >> You too. Thanks so much. [music].