“Complete panic!” Republicans lose control in DEEP RED STATE

This is Democracy Watch. Mark, there is. a huge feud brewing between Democrats. and Republicans in the state of Utah. So, not exactly the state we would think. here, but a court handed down a ruling. that says that there has to be a. district that Democrats would win in the. congressional map. Republicans are. trying to fight that in court. We now. have a few major updates here. Can you. explain what happened in court? Yeah, so. to tell you how badly things are going. for the Republicans about redistricting, we're talking about Utah and Democrats. gaining a seat. Well, they overplayed. their hands in the drawing of their map.

They violated the state constitution. They got sued. They lost. They thought. they would, you know, get this reversed. in their state Supreme Court and they. didn't. So, since then they've been in. complete panic. So, number one, there's. an effort by Republicans to try to. expand the size of the Utah Supreme. Court. That's a never a sign that things. are going well for you. Second, they. filed a new lawsuit in federal court to. try to get the map thrown out on federal. grounds. Like, that's not going to. happen. So, that's that's like the Hail. Mary that is definitely dropping in the.

end zone, Brian, without anyone catching. it. And then the last thing, and and this is. perhaps the most explosive, is they've. been trying to block this. by bringing a ballot initiative and. gathering signatures to essentially. repeal it all. And lo and behold, Brian, I know this is. going to shock you, but it turns out. that this effort, which apparently is. you know, has all kinds of Trump fingerprints all. all over it, is mired in fraud. Yeah,

yeah, yeah, I know that's hard for you. to believe, Brian, that anything that. the Republicans would be doing or that. Don Jr. or one of the Trumps might be. involved in might not be entirely on the. up and up, but they're mired in a big. fraud problem in the state of. Utah, where even Republican. county officials are like, "What are. these signatures you're turning in to. us?" Yeah, If if um I read is correct, upwards of 90% of the signatures that.

they're reviewing right now are. fraudulent. And so, this whole effort to. kind of um use a ballot measure to undo. what the judge has done, which is. basically to say that there needs to be. one of these district that districts. that's contiguous that that uh Democrats. will win in I believe Salt Lake City. area, that their effort to undo that by. collecting enough signatures, that won't. even go because they can't not commit. fraud even while engaging in that part. Yeah, and you know, I I mentioned the. three things because it is illustrative.

of just how desperate Republicans are. I mean, they are at the end of their. rope. They got led down a path by Donald. Trump that they thought was going to. lead them to the House majority. They. just thought they would redistrict Texas. and gain five seats and then they'd roll. through North Carolina and Missouri and. New Hampshire uh and Indiana and. Florida. Well, first of all, a handful. of those states said, "No, we're not. doing it." Right? So, New Hampshire and. Indiana said, "No.". Texas, they redistricted, but now that.

map is looking more and more dicey. I. mean, if you ask me, would I rather be. the Democrats who gained five seats in. California or the Republicans who think. they gained five seats in Texas? I think. I don't think anyone would rather be the. Republicans right now based on what. these special elections are. But then, on top of that, there you know, my law. firm sued and won a a a victory in New. York. Right? That was a seat that that. Donald Trump and the Republicans had in. plan. And then, in Utah, as you point. out, the a group of of plaintiffs. basically saying, "You can't divvy up.

Salt Lake City and divide it into a lot. of different pieces. It deserves a a. district." They won in the state courts. And so, Republicans, they're literally. trying to redo the composition of the. state's supreme court. They're suing in. federal court under Remember, Brian, the. old independent state legislature. theory? Yep, it's back. That's what. they're trying there. And then, you've. got this petition gathering thing, which. looks like it has devolved into just, you know, a a an absolute mess both. legally, potentially criminally if there.

was knowing and willful gathering of. false signatures, and certainly. politically, you know, this is the kind. of mess that will not only fail to. overturn the results, but you know, Brian, this is not an overwhelmingly. Democratic district they drew, right? This is This is you can imagine in a. parallel world Republicans would have. embraced the idea that there would be a. competitive district, probably leans. Democratic in Salt Lake City, but that, you know, they would compete for it. Instead, they have totally vilified the. people of Salt Lake City. They've.

vilified the judiciary, and now they've. got this. They are virtually. guaranteeing now a Democrat holds that. seat come next November. And And that's. the part I wanted you to dig into a. little bit here, but before we before we. do, um just a quick note that you have. been covering this relentlessly uh both. in the media space and by litigating. these very redistricting cases. So, a. small step that everybody watching right. now could take to support the invaluable. work of Mark and his team, if you're not. yet signed up for Democracy Docket, which is the news outlet Mark founded to. focus on everything voting and.

elections, now would be a great time to. do exactly that. Again, that shows some. support for the work they're doing and. not just in the media space where we. need to elevate Mark's voice, but also. in the courts where he's litigating 80. cases right now. Yeah, and can I just. tell you Yeah. you know, you're. absolutely right. We're litigating 80. cases, but you know, there are 49. redistricting cases around this country. Now, we're not litigating all of them, we're litigating a lot of them, maybe, you know, almost half of them, but. there's just a ton of redistricting. going on right now in court, and it's. part of why you and I do this series,

it's part of why I always tell people to. subscribe to your channel and make sure. to hit the bell because Brian and I, you. know, are bringing you videos. We're. talking Utah today. I mean, that's That. is a sense of like how broad the. redistricting map is right now. We're. also waiting for a critical decision to. come out of the US Supreme Court from. Louisiana that could have wide-ranging. consequences. So democracy not a good. grade resource and I appreciate that and. hope everyone subscribes. But also don't. forget to to be subscribed to this. channel because there is a ton of.

redistricting news coming out almost. every day. And I'm going to put that. subscribe link right here on the screen. as well and in the post description. So. if you're not yet signed up, please go. ahead and sign up. So Mark, as I was. mentioning before, is there anything. that the Republicans can do right now as. this process plays out that worries you. in terms of, you know, their potential. success at undoing this Democratic. district at least before 2026? Yeah, so. I think they're probably out of luck for. 2026 just because the clock keeps. ticking every single day towards the. 2026 elections. And as you know, there.

is a doctrine that says basically courts. shouldn't overturn the status quo too. close to an election and that's been. held to apply to redistricting. Now I do. want to say though that it is worth. following this case filed in federal. court in Utah where they are looking to. essentially invoke the independent state. legislature theory. This is a doctrine. that you and I did a lot of videos about. a few years ago because it is a. right-wing fringe theory that basically. says state courts cannot apply or.

interpret state election laws including. redistricting laws. So it essentially. say to the federal court, "Hey, tell. this state judge and state Supreme Court. that the map they insisted on that they. have no role in the process and and and. therefore goes back to legislative map.". This basically eliminates eliminates. checks and balances. It it would. >> It eliminates checks and balances. It's. something it's been on the Republican. wish list for years. That case went to. the US Supreme Court out of new out of. North Carolina a few years ago. My law. firm and I were proud to represent.

Becky Harper who was the the lead. plaintiff in the case below, lead. respondent and and we won. And so we all. thought that doctrine was dead and. buried. I think it is for purposes of. 2026 still buried, but you know, Republicans are are nothing if not. persistent. So, they're going to take. their shot with that. So, expect that. they will almost certainly lose in the. trial court, and then they'll file an. emergency petition in the US Supreme. Court, and I can promise everyone when. they do, you'll know about it on this. channel because Brian and I will do a.

video on it, and you'll know about it on. Democracy Docket. So, make sure you're. subscribed to both. Is this a world. where the Republicans could look at. what's happening right now where they. try to scientifically engineer. themselves a majority in the in the. house, and how that effort is kind of. backfiring, and look at that as. instructive in terms of invoking the. independent state legislature theory? Because, look, there are a lot of. Republican states, of course, with. Republican legislatures, but they've. already gerrymandered their maps to a. large degree. There are also Democratic. states, many of which are are are kind.

of held back because they've put forward. independent redistricting commissions, and so those Democratic states can serve. as major weapons. Uh we have New York. that has an independent independent uh. uh redistricting commission. We have. California, even though that was. suspended, there are still other states. in California. If we wanted to defer. solely to the legislatures in these. states, which are very blue, very. Democratic, couldn't that be a major. problem for Republicans if this actually. does pass? Yeah, I actually thought. about that. You know, as we're preparing. for this video, I'm not sure which way.

the math would work for them right now. You know, it used to be they thought the. math worked entirely in their favor, but. but you're exactly right. I mean, let's. just start with the following. Like, if. New York, California, uh. uh and New Jersey, just those three, could redraw maps without any regard for. their independent uh commission or. [clears throat] for claims of partisan. gerrymandering in state court, I mean, those three states are a lot of seats. right there that that are still sitting. in Republican hands that, you know, if. you if you did away with would flip. And.

Virginia, you know, has has proven that, right? Virginia is is because of its. independent redistricting process is a. 6-5 map, six Democrats, five. Republicans. It is now trying to do a. ballot initiative very similar to. California where it would be a 10-1 map. But it would only be a 10-1 map for the. rest of this this cycle. If you did away. if the independent state legislature. theory was adopted, I mean Virginia. could just go 10-1, period. Like the. legislature could just pass the map and. there'd be no challenge. So So I I think.

it's a mixed bag, but but the fact is I. don't think that the Supreme Court is. going to reconsider the independent. state legislature theory in the middle. of a redistricting cycle, in the middle. of an election year, on these facts, you. know, like I think the Supreme Court has. had enough of this doctrine for some. time. Uh it doesn't mean that we're out of the. woods or that it won't come back, but. but I don't think this is going to be. the case they take. Well, it's it's also. fundamentally. anti-democratic. I mean it like like we. were saying before, I mean it eliminates.

oversight of the courts to serve as a. check on the legislative branch. I. cannot think of anything less democratic. except for maybe some of the provisions. that that this Supreme Court has has. green-lit, so maybe I should just check. myself in terms of what I'm saying here. Like how they said that a a president. can can commit criminal acts with. impunity as long as he says that they're. official acts, which of course Trump is. going to say everything is an official. act. And so I guess the question. becomes, is there some concern that even. though it's egregiously anti-democratic. that this Supreme Court has shown a.

proclivity to green-lighting that kind. of stuff as long as it helps. Republicans? Yeah, look, I I I mean I. never take these things lightly and I. always, you know, say we're going to. fight hard and we're going to fight hard. on every case. We're not going to assume. any wins. And so, you know, that has to. be the case here. And and and and I. think that's like a critical message for. everyone. We can't assume victories and. we can't assume defeats, right? Like we. just have to we have to fight hard. and we have to run through the tape. And. I think when that happens, we're going. to wind up in control of the House and. maybe even the Senate. But you know,

Brian, to your broader point, I mean, there's nothing that defines Trumpism. more. than contempt for any restraints. Yeah. Right? So, like in some sense, even if. it's counterproductive in some states at. the at the state level, um you know, Donald Trump has nothing. but contempt for Congress and. Republicans in Congress I guess have. nothing but contempt for themselves. Uh and he doesn't want to be limited by. he doesn't want to be limited by the. courts. And so, in some ways, the whole. independent state legislature theory, I. think you can't divorce it from.

Trumpism, which is a fundamental. disregard for the role of courts and. there'll be no constraints on executive. power. Now, in this case, it's it's. legislative power, but Republicans. control more legislatures. So, I think. it's actually in that sort of meta way. com- completely consistent. But but. finally, Brian, you know, I I'd be. remiss if I didn't raise the fact that. the reason why we're talking about Utah. in February of 2026 is because Donald. Trump is so damn unpopular. Yeah. And.

because, like, you know, normally one. seat in Utah would not a majority make. or break. Yeah. But you can see the. desperation in this White House. I mean, look at what they're saying every day. about elections and, you know, canceling. them or or or having Republicans take. over them. I mean, this is a group that. knows they are losing. You know, I get asked this, I'm sure you. do, do the Republican do is you know, is. Trump delusional? No, they know they. know they're losing. And that's why. they're becoming more dangerous. Right. Right. Well, look, nobody uh pushes back.

against the overreach and the danger of. this administration better than you and. your team. So, one more time I'm going. to ask if you're not yet subscribed to. democracy docket, I'm going to put that. link right here on the screen and also. in the post description of this video. This is our opportunity to elevate the. voices that we need to elevate in this. ecosystem and elevate the voices who are. actually fighting these battles on the. front lines in the courts where it. matters. So, that link to democracy. docket is right here on the screen and. also in the post description. And of. course, to see more episodes of. democracy watch, that link is on the. screen as well. I'm Brian Tyler Cohen. I'm Mark Elias. This is Democracy Watch.