BREAKING: Trump LOSES major case in DEVASTATING blow for midterms

This is Democracy Watch. Mark, we just. got a bombshell court ruling. It does. not get better than this. Can you. explain what just happened in court? Yeah, Republicans went to Lynchburg, Virginia, home of Liberty University, presumably to judge shop and figure. maybe they'd be able to block the new. ballot measure that's going forward in. Virginia that will create a new map if. it's approved by the voters, and. Democrats stand to gain four seats. Well, Republicans lost. You know, they. thought we we got the right place, but.

they lost a that Lynchburg judge shut. them down and said that the referendum. process will go forward. And Brian, as. someone who lives in the Commonwealth of. Virginia, I'm going to be among the. first online to early vote on Friday of. this week. So, you'd mentioned that they. went all the way to Lynchburg, Virginia, home of Liberty University. I'm sure. people can glean a little bit of what. the the partisan affiliation is out. there. What does it mean that Republicans lost.

even in a in a place where they clearly. cherry-picked a judge who they thought. would be more more receptive to their. argument? Look, this is what Republicans. do, right? Like remember the first cases. in Virginia were filed in Tazewell. County, which for those even in. Virginia, they probably don't know where. Tazewell County is. It is a very small. rural county, essentially in the southwestern part of. the state, very Republican county, and. they went there. And now they've gone to. to to this county. There's another.

lawsuit by another individual in. Washington County, which is also a rural. red county. Look, Republicans are going. to pull out all the stops. But Brian, we. saw this in California. So, Democrats. need to just sort of brace themselves. for an onslaught of litigation, like we. saw in California where, you know, Republicans there went so far as to file. lawsuits in Texas to try to stop. California from going forward. I mean, you want to talk about judge shopping. Right, you're judge shopping when you. are trying to block a map in the state. of California and you have gone to Texas.

and hope that Judge Kasmaryk, who is, you know, a famous federal conservative. federal court judge in Texas, hope that. he'll block the case and he didn't even. go for it. Yeah, well, that's the that. those are those states' rights that. Republicans always beat their chest. about. So, Mark, in terms of the ability. for Republicans to actually stop this. thing now, is that all but gone? Is. there a way that they can appeal this. even further? I mean, you had mentioned. that voting starts on Friday, so I'm. assuming that unless we get some. temporary restraining order over the.

next, you know, 74 72 hours, that this. thing is going forward. Look, there are. a number of cases still going on here. There's a case in Richmond brought by. Republican congressman. There are two. cases that we've talked about before in. Tazewell County. You know, at least one. of them and probably both of them, you. know, we're waiting to hear further from. the State Supreme Court on probably. early next week. You know, there is this. new case that I mentioned filed by an. individual voter in Washington County, another rural county. And I don't think.

we've seen the last of this, Brian. You. know, Brian, we're going to see. Republicans in a year. in which their electoral fortunes are in. decline, right? It's not just these. Virginia ballot measures, not just the. California ballot measure. It's not the. main just the main ballot measure that. happened the same day as California. where Republicans lost, but it's also. we're seeing it in these special. elections, right? Republicans are in. real trouble with the voters. The voters. of the United States are really unhappy. with Donald Trump. His popularity has.

soured. They're really unhappy with. Republicans in Congress. And so, Democrats have their wind at their. backs. And so, the only thing. Republicans can do is to file these Hail. Mary lawsuits and try to judge shop and. cherry-pick and hope that they strike. gold. But, here's the thing, it's all. going to fail. It's going to be a messy. process. It's going to be a lot of. twists and turns, but in the end, this. ballot measure is going to go forward, this referendum is going to go forward. in. Virginia in the same way it did in. California, and Republicans are going to.

spend a ton of money to try to defeat. it, just like they did in California. And Brian, what was the result in. California? It wasn't even close. Yeah. Well, I want to talk about the other. places in which the Republicans' broader. effort to to engineer themselves a. permanent majority in the house. backfired in the courts, uh most of. which is happening at the hands of your. law firm. But before you answer that. question, I just want to note for people. that Mark is fighting these battles on. the front lines where it matters most. And so, a small step that everybody. watching can take to support him and his.

team is to sign up for Democracy Docket. That's the news outlet Mark founded to. focus on everything voting elections. It's a resource that I use on a daily. basis. So again, if you want to elevate. his voice, which could not be more. important than it is right now, and also. support his work in the courts where. he's fighting for fair maps across the. country, best way to do that, easiest. way to do that, is to subscribe to. Democracy Docket. I'm going to put that. link right here on the screen, and also. in the post description of this video. So, Mark, talk about the other ongoing. litigation uh that's going to impact. 2026. Look, I think we got to start with.

Utah. Now, that's probably not really. ongoing anymore, but it's a good example. of where Republicans again overplayed. their hands. You know, Republicans could. have drawn a Utah map that included a. Salt Lake City-based district, and had a. real shot of winning, right? They could. have won every They're going to win. every other seat in the state of Utah. And had they drawn a district that kept. Salt Lake City basically uh whole, they. would have had a real shot. Instead, because they are so unpopular, because.

Donald Trump is such a drag, they carved. up Salt Lake City into like four. different pieces. And that offended even. the state courts of Utah were not going. to go for that, right? Because like, they don't want their big city carved up. into all of these pieces. So, they sued. and they lost and then they sued again. and they lost and then they went to. federal court and sued and they lost. And so, like Utah in some respects, even. though it's only one seat and it's, you. know, our very red state, I think it is.

illustrative of what we are seeing. throughout the country. Obviously, there. is ongoing litigation in the US Supreme. Court involving the Cale case and this. is the big case that we all keep waiting. to see whether we're going to get a. decision. We haven't gotten it yet. There are some people who think, well, maybe it'll come this week in the. Supreme Court or next week. At this. point, I have to imagine that the. justices have just made a decision that. they're going to wait until June or late. June to decide Cale because they don't.

want it to be a factor in the 2026. election. And I suspect that that is. probably a coalition of not just the. liberal justices, but even people who. are hostile to the Voting Rights Act. like the Chief Justice who has been very. hostile to the Voting Rights Act, doesn't see the benefit to the court in. throwing itself into the middle of. changing this monumental law in a way. that will look like they are helping the. Republicans. So, I I think that as we. head towards the 2026 midterm elections,

redistricting will wind up being a draw. You know, Republicans won't have gained. an advantage. I don't think, you know, when we see the primary results in. Texas, we'll get a little bit of sense. of what turnout is there and it may turn. out that even that gerrymander that they. thought would gain them five seats, Brian, is not going to gain them five. seats. So, so look, the fights are not. over. We're still waiting to see what uh. what Republicans in Florida do, but. would I rather be us or them right now? I'd rather be us. In terms of the Cale case that you had.

just mentioned, are we at the point now. in your estimation where. where it feels safe enough that it's not. going to be some mass redraw, even if it. was handed down tomorrow, for example, it feels like it's not some mass. redrawing uh of maps. That this isn't, you know, the the big rain cloud hanging. over the 2026 midterms in the way that. it would have been if this decision was. handed down second week of January, for. example, when the Supreme Court first. started issuing their rulings. Absolutely. Look, I I've always said.

about Colleagues, there are two big. time periods to watch. The first was, as. you said, in early January. Because had. the Supreme Court decided this case in. early January, there would a lot of. pressure on these Republican-controlled. legislatures to redraw their maps in. time for 2026. There's basically no. There's no That's early enough that no. states have primaries that early, and so. you could look You could see, you know, South Carolina and Georgia and Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Florida. All of these states could have just. drawn out any black majority districts.

and still had plenty of time left over. as we head to a 2026. Correct. And there also would have been. And this is the other part of it. There. would have been a lot of political. pressure on them to do that. So, even in. some of these states where the. Republican legislatures like, you know. what, we actually don't want to have. black voters in these neighboring. districts cuz maybe it makes them a. little swingier. I mean, don't get me. wrong. The Republicans wouldn't be. objecting cuz of decency, but they would. worry that that that taking a very very.

heavily black or minority district and. putting putting, you know, dispersing. those voters into surrounding districts. could create competitive districts. There would have been a lot of political. pressure from the White House and others. to say, "Don't worry about that. Go do. that." Well, now, as Donald Trump's. popularity has has plummeted, and as. they have watched other Republican. states like New Hampshire, where it's. Republican-controlled, and Indiana, where it's Republican-controlled, refuse. to do so, I just think there's just a. lot less political will on the part of.

Republicans to do it. So, you have both. the fact that since January, the the. time frame has changed, right? The the. the logistics of it, as you point out, have become nearly impossible in a lot. of states cuz cuz we're so close to the. primaries. But also, I mean, my sense. is, but you know, you weigh in here. I. think the politics of this has changed. I think I think if you asked the. Republicans in Texas today, would they. have drawn the map that they drew if.

they knew what the politics of the. states look like today? I think they'd. say no. I don't think they would have. taken that five five-seat gamble. I. think maybe they would have redrawn for. two seats or three seats. I don't think. they would have gone for five. And I. think that that political shift will. also impact Republican willingness to. sort of wing it here in the last few. days if they get a chance. But again, I. don't think they'll get that chance. I. don't think the Supreme Court's going to. rule in this case till June, when it's. really too late everywhere. And by the. way, I I think you're exactly right on.

that point. You know, the the. Republicans redrew their maps with this. idea that the demographic shifts that we. saw in 2024 were a permanent realignment. of their coalition. And what we're. learning now is that those demographic. swings to the right were not permanent. They were very much temporary, and. they're swinging back in a big way. That's why we're seeing, you know, 12, 14, 16, 20, 30, 35-point swings to the. left right now. And so, if you if you. drew a district where you said, "Okay, you know what? We're going to we're.

going to gerrymander these districts and. give ourselves, you know, a 10-point buffer." And Democrats are. averaging like 16-point swings to the. left, that district is in peril now. If. you drew a district that that's composed. mostly of of Latino voters, and you saw. based on this latest midterm off-year. election cycle that certain. jurisdictions have Latino voters. swinging 50 points to the left, what. happens to those districts that you've. drawn thinking that that those numbers. in 2024 are a permanent a a part of your.

coalition? And so, yeah, to your exact. point, I think that these Republicans. absolutely made a mistake and and got. too cocky, allowed their hubris to take. over in terms of redrawing their maps, not recognizing A, how Trump's. popularity would weigh them down, and B, the kind of swings that we're seeing as. the Republican Party more broadly has. failed to to really live up to its own. campaign promises and people revolting. from exactly that. Yeah, and I think. that what this means going forward is.

that Donald Trump's got to go to plan B, C, and D, right? I mean, like the. redistricting thing hasn't panned out. and in fact may have backfired. So, now. what you're seeing is as he is launching. a war in Iran, he is also posting on. social media that Iran interfered in the. 2020 and 2024 election. As redistricting. seems to not be an option, you see the. Department of Justice, you know, not just seeking the voter. files from 25 states. They've now. increased that to 30 states, uh,

including four Republican-controlled. states. So, you're seeing the escalation. of the second and third-order tactics. that the White House and the Republican. Party have to rely on because. redistricting didn't pan out. And that's. the reason why everyone, you got to. subscribe to Brian's channel because. this is a very much a fluid situation, right? Like one week you are hearing. that the big threats to democracy is. this, and then you find out that it that. that it builds to something even worse. And the best place to stay informed is.

on this channel. So, do me a favor right. now and hit the subscribe button. And if. you've already done that, hit the bell. because what that does is that means. you'll get alerted when there is new. content. So, when Brian and I have. breaking news like we do about here. about this Virginia, you'll get it and. you it won't get lost in the clutter of. algorithms and all of other. that, you know, is being thrown at. you by by, you know, by YouTube. Well, I'm going to put that link right here on. the screen. And I'm also again going to. put Democracy Docket right here on the. screen. You got to support Mark's work.

both in the courts and in the media. space. There is no person whose voice is. more deserving of being elevated than. his and his team. So, again, both of. those links are right here on the. screen. I'm Brian Tyler Cohen. I'm Mark. Elias. This is Democracy Watch. >> [music].