Will immigration offset Japan's shrinking population? - Asia Specific podcast, BBC World Service

Immigration is one of ways many countries keep their populations. growing, but not in North East Asia. Countries like Japan, China and South Korea, they have some of the world's lowest birth rates, and yet they have largely avoided bringing people in. to offset their shrinking populations. And Kurumi, Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. she wants to tighten rules on immigration. That's right, Mariko. Prime Minister Takaichi is tightening rules to crack down. and address issues like visa, overstayers and unpaid pensions.

And this all comes as some communities in Japan wrestle with a largely new idea. that more foreigners are needed to fill the labor gap today and in the future. Yeah, it is a relatively new concept in Japan, isn't it, immigration. So we're asking, as debates rage in the West about immigration numbers, will more foreigners be part of North East Asia's future? I'm Mariko in Singapore and this is Asia Specific from the BBC World Service. Twice a week we bring you Asia Pacific stories.

unpacked by those who know them best. I have the BBC's Tokyo correspondent Kurumi Mori. Welcome back to Asia Specific, Kurumi. Thanks for having me. I also have the BBC's Global China Unit's Shawn Yuan. Thank you so much for coming back on the pod, Shawn. Thanks for having me back. Loving the pink hair, by the way. Thank you. Hope I'm rocking it. Kurumi and I are competing with our bright coloured dresses.

And before we dive in to this immigration debate, Sean, let me ask you. We often hear how shrinking population is a bad thing, but can you maybe explain to our viewers and listeners why it's actually bad? Because one could argue it's probably better for the environment. Yeah, it's very accurate what you're saying in terms of environment. If we're saying that if a lower population is generally true, that we have lower consumption without lower emissions as well. But when we're talking about modern economies, that's not exactly what we're thinking about.

For China, specifically speaking, we have 1.4 billion people. So to have a shrinking population means that there is lower. and fewer people in the workforce. But more importantly, it's not just about a shrinking workforce. It's also about the aging population. We're saying that we have fewer people being born, more people dying in comparison. And what that means is that the state is going. through major pressure when it comes to the pension system.

A lot of people who are working right now are sort of paying for the aging population. And that's not something the Chinese government, so far, is ready. and equipped to handle yet. And I guess way. before China's population started shrinking, Kurumi, Japan's population was fast shrinking and aging. And it's often said that Japan doesn't accept a lot. of migrants or asylum seekers. But I was reading how the number of foreigners has actually gone up quite significantly in Japan.

So can you maybe crunch some numbers and whether. or not you've noticed the difference? Yeah, absolutely. So Japan has historically had a much smaller foreign population. than many other Western countries. But that has been changing quite rapidly. Like we're just talking about with Sean, it's maybe not so much for the environment, but the impact, it's really about the economy. The number of foreign residents, when we look at the numbers, it's more than doubled since 2012 in Japan. So it's reached about 4.13 million at the end of 2025.

And that's still around 3.3% of Japan's total population. And although that number does sound quite small, compared to other parts of the world, here in Japan. that has been a huge jump, right? That is a big difference. I mean, I know that when I was visiting Japan in the summers. growing up 20 years ago or so, I wouldn't see many foreign workers. at the convenience stores behind the counters. And now in Tokyo, especially when you hardly see Japanese workers,

maybe there's a manager trying to train the other foreign workers. But it is such a stark difference. I think if you've known Japan and have lived here for decades, you definitely feel the difference today. Yeah, absolutely. I've personally noticed it as well. But Shawn, you talked about how China's population is now shrinking. and is immigration ever part of the discussion to. offset that shrinking population? What kind of percentage.

of foreign population are we talking about in China? It's funny, when Kurumi was saying that, compared to Western countries, the the foreign population in Japan is quite minimal. But if you compare Japan to China, China is even more laughable. because we have 1.4 billion people. And the last time we had a census, when it comes to foreign populations. about 2020, and we had about at that time, 800,000 foreign workers in in the entire country. That's less than 0.1% of the entire population. And that kind of tells you a picture.

of the kind of impression that China's government has towards immigration. There's public sentiment towards immigration as well. So, as you said, for a lot of economies, the sort of possible and the most natural way of tackling. an aging population, a shrinking population is to welcome immigration. But for the Chinese government, that has never really been a big push. Of course, back in the days in 2020, for example, the government did introduce, at least, proposed the idea.

of introducing the so-called green card, which is permanent residency, and that faced major backlash and the government soon shelved it. And then, of course, last year, we see the introduction of T visa, which is to welcome foreigners who have high skills, for example, talk about AI or automation, but it has never really been part of a discussion to work. on large scale immigration into China. So you're saying the percentage of foreigners is really, really low,

but are there any, I guess, significant communities, foreigner communities in China? They are, but most of them are sort of concentrated by the border areas, for example, in the north eastern part. You have Russians and Koreans, and in the southwestern part you have Burmese, Thai and Laotians. I think those people are just kind of a lot of. either regular or irregular migration. And those those populations are sort of handled, "separately and discretely".

But I think there have been a few instances. where there are major concentrations of foreign communities, the first one being Africans in Guangzhou, that's in the southern manufacturing hub in China, and it peaked around mid 2010s, reaching over a 100,000 people, and then it slowly decreased, especially during the pandemic, during the pandemic period. And now it's bounced back. And at the same time, in in cities like Yiwu, which is. a manufacturing hub in eastern China, you have a lot of Arab businessmen.

And both those communities are very trade driven. Kurumi, maybe you can explain what kind of visa arrangements. the rising number of foreigners in Japan are on and whether. or not, would they stay or do they get permanent residency? You know, immigration is such an interesting topic in Japan. because the Japanese government actually doesn't use the word immigration. I mean, they have different policies, and it really depends very much on the person. But the word immigration is almost something that they try not to use,

even though we definitely do have immigration. But that said, Japan doesn't have one single immigration route. There are several. There's also a pathway to permanent residence, but it's not meant to be something that they offer to everybody. The permanency of these visas is, is questionable. The general rule is about ten years of continuous residence here, including about five years working or some sort.

of appropriate residence status, although there are exceptions. But that is kind of the route to permanent residency. The requirements for those are now changing slightly. Also the fees for these are changing. They're increasing. But again, it's really a question. about where naturalisation, what that really means. In terms of becoming Japanese, it's a question that we're all. kind of trying to sort out right now.

Can you elaborate on that? Because the Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, she has proposed to tighten or change those rules on various visas. and also who can get residency in the country, hasn't she? Yeah. So the broader political argument is that Japan still needs. foreign workers because we have these big labor shortages, but the government wants to make sure that immigration is controlled, that it is orderly and it's compliant with the rules, rather. than allowing loopholes to develop, which maybe they have in the past.

So the Takaichi administration has taken a quite a more strict stance. than previous prime ministers. One of the major examples is the business manager status, until October of last year, an applicant could generally qualify. with ¥5 million, a capital of about ¥5 million or so under the old rules, and employ two full-time workers. But that threshold has now been raised six times to ¥30 million, with even more strict requirements,

including full time employees and just greater scrutiny. of the applicant's qualifications and their business plans. So we are seeing a changes to some of these requirements when it comes. to becoming a Japanese resident. I have to say, though, I guess the original rules that were in place, like in comparison to a country like Singapore, which does welcome a lot of migrants, but also has very strict rules about who can actually get residency. Japan's rules were quite relaxed in the past,

and I guess that's what the Prime Minister is trying to tighten. And Shawn, can you explain. to our audience about how the situation is different in China? Because even though the population is shrinking, it's not really facing. the labor shortage issue that Kurumi was talking about? No, exactly. Because as I said, the population, even though it's shrinking, there's still a major workforce present in China. And the problem right now with the Chinese economy is not it's not because there's not enough workers.

Actually, the youth unemployment rate is very high right now, but it's sitting around 15 to 19%. That is a high percentage. A lot of people in China are not able to find jobs. But at the same time, you have the kind of shortage. for higher skilled labor, for example, as I said earlier, when it comes to AI, when it comes to automation, when it comes to certain areas that China is really trying to compete. with the rest of the world, particularly the US. So there's a discrepancy when it comes to that. So the Chinese government did realize that there is a gap between.

what the labor force is able to offer. and what the market is ready to absorb. And that's the reason behind the T visa. But also, again, that's also the reason. why the Chinese government has been so restrained when it comes. to what kind of people are allowed to come to China. And because there really is a strong public sentiment. that the economy is not doing really well domestically, why are we inviting more foreigners to come.

and compete for jobs with us? Well, on China's youth unemployment issue, we did a whole episode on it. So click here if you want to watch that. A shameless plug there. But Kurumi, I want to talk about, I guess, people's attitudes towards foreigners in Japan, because online you obviously get the two extreme views, don't you? You know, those who think that Japan should accept more asylum seekers. to the other opposite of, people who have been saying racist stuff.

and accusing foreigners of committing more crimes and so on. And I thought last year during the election, when the ultra right conservative Party, Japanese first, I guess, party called Sanseitō did quite well. I thought maybe that's a bit of an indication. of how people feel towards foreigners, but what's your assessment on that? Yeah, you know, I think the debate isn't really. just about the number of foreigners. It's increasingly about whether the same rules are being properly enforced.

and whether the systems are designed for tourists, for students, workers, residents, whether they're being actually used. for the purposes they were originally intended for. There's been controversy over foreign drivers licenses, access. to health care services, unpaid taxes, social insurance. and overstaying visas, things like that. All of these alleged misuse of Japanese resources.

But it's really important not to present all of these, allegations as established facts. There may be small cases, cases of these. that have maybe prompted the administration. to kind of revisit some of these genuine policy concerns. I mean, we've talked about it that they changed the rules recently, that a foreigner can't just come in and get a driver's license. They used to be able to do that. Using the hotel address, weren't they? Yeah. Exactly. So I think the government is responding.

to sort of these loose, very loose policies. and trying to place greater emphasis on what it sees. as more of an orderly, harmonious coexistence. between Japanese citizens and foreign residents today. Shawn, what about attitudes in China? Because again, online you get extreme views, but we noticed some AI generated videos of a Chinese hero. beating up a foreigner who's been misbehaving in China.

Is that like a niche trend, or. does that actually represent a wider attitude towards foreigners in China? Of course it's very niche, but I think it does. at the same time represent a wider trend as well. in terms of Chinese sentiment, public sentiment towards foreigners. I think it's very important to kind of I keep think going back. to what Kurumi was saying earlier in terms of. becoming Japanese. And that really is not a thing in China. It's never about becoming Chinese. Either you're born Chinese or you're not.

And that kind of idea. that there's almost no way for any foreigner to become Chinese. That in and of itself is such a strong sentiment. So over the past few years, for example, not just a few years, I would say over the past ten years, during this rapid rise of of Chinese nationalism, a lot of people kind of conjured up this idea. that the Chinese nation is becoming much, much stronger. We're reverting back to our old glorious days. And the that kind of sentiment is being amplified by state media as well,

saying, we're no longer the the sick man of East Asia anymore. And that kind of sentiment has really been propped up. So you're seeing this kind of, for example, the AI videos where you just mentioned Mariko, strong Chinese men beaten up foreigners for misbehaving and that. And then the idea is to kind of convey the message. that Chinese nation is really rising up again. And if you want to come, the foreigners want to come to China. Yes, we're welcome. But at the same time, you got to behave. Otherwise we are a strong nation.

And it's a stark contrast to what we had 15, 20 years ago. when China was first joining WTO, for example, China was opening up to the world and. there was a much stronger sentiment of please welcome us into the world. And we want you guys to come to China and see how much we've developed. But over the past decade. that friendliness has somehow turned into hostility. Yeah, that attitude has definitely changed, hasn't it? Kurumi, I was watching your recent report.

about the growing number of Muslim population in Japan as well, because I guess traditionally the largest foreign or non-Japanese. community has always been Chinese, followed by, I thought it was Korean, but now it has been overtaken by the Vietnamese. because of the trainee visa that you talked about. But in terms of the the number of Muslim population. and, you know, you were reporting about some backlash.

about building a mosque in certain cities. Can you tell us more about what their concerns are? Yeah. So I went to Fujisawa City. That's about a couple hours drive south of Tokyo towards the beach area. It's generally known for having Enoshima and this beachy area that people go to. It's quite a laid back seaside town. But when there were plans for a mosque and it's currently.

under construction, there are reports that there are protests, of locals saying they don't want a mosque built there. They had conflicting reports about how many people were protesting. against the mosque versus what the local reports said. And so I was looking at the video footage, trying to figure out. how many people really were out on the streets to protest the mosque. I mean, it's quite difficult to see. It could be dozens. It could be hundreds. Not clear about that because I wasn't there during the protests.

But when I did go back to do the reports, I tried to speak to a number of people, and the general consensus I got was that the locals feared. that the foreigners would disrupt public safety. I mean, there were a host of other reasons. I challenged some of their answers. Just try to get to the to the heart. of what was really causing some of the anxiety. It just seemed like it was the fear of the unknown. There are a lot of public opinion surveys conducted by. different universities and institutions.

But one I found, and most of the ones I found were. about 70% of Japanese people saying that they feel anxious or concerned. that the increase in the number of foreigners will disrupt order in Japan. So, I don't know if it's so much specifically. about the Islamic faith or the Muslim community. I think it's more the fact that, it is new for Japan. I mean, it's still a small number percentage wise, but a mosque, for example, compared to a Japanese Tokyo skyline.

You know, it does stand out. It looks visibly different. We have Tokyo Camii, which is the largest mosque in Japan here in Tokyo. But that was one. And now we're seeing more pop up and it raises questions about, halal food, lunches for kids. It raises questions about the prayer times. The way that they maybe, practice different traditions and services. And I think that Japanese people locally don't really understand it.

because it's so different, right? It is different from what they're used to. And the unfamiliar seems to be what's causing a lot of the anxiety. So could it maybe have more to do with, we need Japanese people to be more open minded. We need the foreign residents, people moving in here. to kind of assimilate and be more open as well. We have this idea of "Kyozon" of just respecting the differences.

And I think, one of the locals I talked to mentioned this, that we all should be practicing "Kyozon", that we should be trying to understand each other. And maybe that is the way forward, because there is no way. that Japan will exist the way it is. We need labourers. We need that to support the economy and to keep the country running. We will need foreign people. And Kurumi, can you maybe tell our audience about, you know, when there's a debate in the West about immigration, assimilation,

when there's a crime committed by a migrant worker in the West? I personally notice quite a lot of "See? Japan was right not to accept more immigrants" kind of attitude. And what do you notice in terms of Japan's reaction. to this ongoing debate in the West? Yeah, it's funny you mentioned that because when I was. on the ground talking to everyday people here, the Japanese people, they did point out the European experience.

And unfortunately, I think a lot of what we see in North East Asia. when it comes to what's going on in Europe with, you know, rapid immigration and reports of social unrest associated with that. is largely negative. And I think in Japan, they use it as some sort of warning. about what Japan wouldn't want here. Shawn, what about in China when this migrant crisis in the West, what's the discussion, especially online in China? Oh, it's very similar to what Kurumi is saying,

regarding what the Japanese environment is talking about as well, has oftentimes been portrayed as a crisis, recently in Ceuta, for example, in Spain. And, over the past years, the migrant crisis by the Mexico-US border. as well, all of those things have been served by the state media. as evidence that, the system, the immigration system in the West does not work. And that gets again picked up by the public. saying that this is the reason why our system is much better, and there's a reason why we're not allowing that many immigrants in,

because look at what is going on in the West. And that sort of sentiment is so widespread in China, not necessarily a bottom up approach, but the state media sort of chose that narrative. and it gets filtered out into the public. I think, given what, you know, Shawn just said, and you know what I had said also previously. about the kind of the sentiment towards the immigration crises worldwide, I think it's important to point out that at least here in Japan,

the people I talked to, some really do value the foreign workers. I mean, I think a lot of businesses in particular feel this. The ramen shop I went to, the manager kept telling me, you know, we are so lucky that these guys from Nepal are able to come. to Japan and work for us, because he thought. that they're more hardworking than the young Japanese people today. He was like the Japanese youth today don't want to work at my ramen shop. because it's too hot and the hours are long and you have to stand all day. So, he did point out that he felt a great relief.

that we're able to have foreign workers in Japan. So the sentiment, yes, there is some negativity associated with it, absolutely. But we I think we have to look at the bigger picture, that there are businesses and other parts of society. that are very much welcoming of the foreign population. It's always so nice to have you both Kurumi and Shawn. Thank you so much for joining me. Thank you so much for having us. Thanks. You've been watching Asia Specific from the BBC World Service.

with me, Mariko Oi in Singapore. If you have any questions or thoughts on what we covered in this episode. or any other stories from the region, please leave us a comment below. You can also get in touch with us on email asiaspecific@bbc.co.uk. and click like and subscribe so you never miss an episode. See you next time.