Why much of Asia treats Trump like ‘an emperor’ - Asia Specific podcast, BBC World Service

US influence, particularly when it comes to to Hollywood, to fashion, to consumer habits. That's going to last a lot longer. US political influence, diplomatic influence, strategic influence that is definitely going to be challenged. And quite quickly. From gold crowns to golden golf clubs, Asia knows how to put on a show for Donald Trump. I'm telling you, these countries are calling us up, kissing my ***. They are. They are dying to make a deal. Please. Please, sir. Make a deal. I'll do anything. I'll do anything, sir.

But at a time when American influence is waning here, the US leader is turning the region's diplomacy upside down. Why is much of this region still rolling out the red carpet. for leaders so determined to hurt their exports? And will Asia ever be the same after Trump's America? I'm Mariko Oi in Singapore, and this is Asia Specific. Twice a week we'll bring you Asia Pacific stories unpacked by those who know them best.

And today I'm joined by two correspondents I've known for. a very long time, Jonathan Head in Bangkok and Laura Bicker in Beijing. They're the BBC's Southeast Asia and China correspondents. I call them walking encyclopedias on the region. Thank you both for joining us on this podcast. So exciting to have you both. Both of you have covered many state leaders, including Donald Trump. So I'm going to start off by asking you for your favorite Trump moment. that you have encountered that only journalists can.

Laura. Well, actually, you and I were together. So this is at the DMZ. Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un met. Everything is usually very coordinated when it comes to North Korea, except this historic moment where the first sitting US president crosses the border over into North Korea. We are not inside the bubble. You have to be very special to get. inside this kind of United States white House press corps.

So we're always that little bit removed from it. But we were live on air watching it as they're coming through, and you could see the pandemonium because you actually had to, The White House press secretary had to push North Korean security. out of the way. I mean, it's TV gold in many respects. when it comes to these kind of these kind of made-for-TV moments. And yeah, in the recent tour, I was in South Korea when Donald Trump was,

was there meeting President Lee. And we didn't know, we'd heard there's going to be this crown awarded to him. And we weren't quite sure exactly what it was going to look like. And then as they walked in and you could see this replica and it's huge. I mean, the South Koreans gifted him this massive gold crown. There's absolutely no way that you could even balance it on your head. So, yeah, I think there have been a few really gold moments.

I do remember that DMZ summit, because I think we dropped all the other stories. We were rolling just with this story. And when Kim Jong UN and Donald Trump disappeared. into this meeting room, we didn't know how long it was going to be. So I think it took them like an hour to come out. And it was like, so for audiences, viewers joining us just now, you know, let's remind you about why this is historic and so on. So, yeah, very kind of unpredictable. presidency, that was the first presidency. What about you, Jonathan? What's your Trump moment?

Your favorite one? Oh, well, there've been a few. I mean, I remember the 2017 Apex Summit. That was his first tour to Asia. And he was very new to Asia then. And at the time, the US had terrible relations with Cambodia. Cambodia just banned its main opposition leader. It was throwing out U.S. agencies, jailing journalists working for US news organizations. So Hun Sen, the Cambodian strongman, was kind of persona non grata. But at the great get together, it was actually.

it was actually Asean because he'd moved on from APEC to Asean. It's all in this region, very similar to this time round. They all had to wear the local dress. It's the Filipino barong Tagalog. So everyone was dressed. in this sort of Filipino shirt and President Trump was moving around. And I don't think he knew many people. And Hun Sen sidled up to him and got tons of selfies with him, which he then posted all over social media of Donald Trump and Hun Sen. You know, the thumbs up. I mean, that's what Trump's like.

I mean, whether you like him or don't, he's always unpredictable and entertaining. And when he arrived in Malaysia and came off, they had these traditional Malaysian dancers lined up. And, you know, Asian leaders are quite formal. You know, they walk down the red carpet. There's a sort of nod here and handshakes. Donald Trump went up and started boogieing away and the Malaysians. We're dancing as well on screen. I know you probably can't see each other. And Anwar Ibrahim, the host, had to kind of join in. He's been criticized now by people saying that wasn't very Islamic,

but that's Trump. You know, they've given it a title. It's called the Joget, which means the fist bump dance, and it's gone viral everywhere. Those, those, at least they make. these summit meetings, which can be pretty dry at times. They do liven them up. Yeah. I mean, both of you and myself included, covered his first presidency. I mean, Laura, you were in the US, weren't you, when he was first elected? I mean, I remember thinking, you know, President Obama had that pivot to Asia. And at the start, President Trump didn't really seem to care too much.

about Asia until, you know, he realized how well he gets treated in Asia. You know, he gets treated like an emperor or king. however you want to describe it. This time around, the reaction is quite different from China. Why do you think that is? Is that because Beijing is probably more confident, kind of seeing itself as more equal to the United States? I think when it comes to what China feels, China has stared down. the barrel of this trade war. They have prepared for it.

They saw it coming first time round after Donald Trump's first term. They've seen the danger and what they've done is put in place. Certainly they've diversified trade. So now they trade with far more countries. They don't just export to the United States. But secondly, they were waiting. And the thing that they did this time. is something that they've never done before. They used their economy in parts of their economy as a weapon. And specifically they saw where they had the advantage.

And that's with these rare earths, these metals that we all need for everything. For instance, what you're watching this podcast on wind turbines. and crucially for the United States weapons. So they used that leverage for the first time. And that is what has brought United States to the table. And that is what Beijing will feel has given it real strength. So while everybody else is flattering Donald Trump,

sitting down trying to do the best trade deal, you know, right from the start, Beijing crossed its arms and said, no, we will fight until the bitter end. And now we have a little bit of a truce. After that meeting between the two leaders, we'll just have to see how long that lasts. Jonathan, you mentioned Hun Sen in Cambodia is not. exactly a key ally for the United States. Why did he want to take all those selfies? Why did he want to, you know, build a closer relationship with Donald Trump,

do you think? I mean, this is fascinating, Mariko. There's such a kind of complicated love hate relationship. Cambodia is a small country with a terrible history, a very authoritarian system. Now it's a one-party system. And in the last ten, 20 years, it's basically become almost completely dependent. on Chinese support, Chinese investment, Chinese tourism. Many people describe it as almost a Chinese client state. And yet Cambodia, for all of its huge dependence on Chinese diplomatic.

and investment support, 40% of its exports still go to the United States. And when those tariffs first hit back in April, Cambodia had some of the highest in the world, 49%, that was existential. That's come right down now to 19%. So they've got real reasons why they need to get along with the US. And this is broadly true of the rest of Southeast Asia. They've all got different traditional relationships with the US, some much more distant, some very, very close.

But they all need that US market. And that's the difference with China. They don't have that leverage. You know, ever since Donald Trump's first term, Asean exports to the US have gone up by well over two times. A lot of that is manufacturers moving from China. to Asean countries to get around Donald Trump's tariffs on China. So suddenly Asean is even more dependent on that US market. than it was maybe five, ten years ago.

And so when Trump comes making demands, they've almost got to give in. They've got to get those tariff numbers down. That applies to Cambodia. It applies to all of them. I want to know how ordinary people in both China. and Southeast Asia feel about Mr. Trump. What's your sense? What do you think people think of Mr. Trump and America as a whole? When he was first elected, I went to the park. to kind of try to speak to as many people as possible. I think the first thing you get is a kind of grin and they'll go, Trump!

And they don't particularly know why Americans are voting. for this kind of, you know, bombastic style of politician. Because obviously, when it comes to politics here, everything is very staged, everything is very choreographed, and they're unable to ,kind of, take it all in. There was also a lot of kind of. internet viral videos going around of Trump's dance. They really love a little bit of Y.M.C.A. Some of them will be like, oh, well, you know, China's much stronger.

They'll they'll try to force through some nationalism, you know, try to say, right, okay, hang on a second. Here we are. We're going to be patriotic here and tell this foreign journalist. that the reason, China can fight Trump is x-x-x. So I think there's all of that. But behind it all, I think. it's worth saying that there are a lot of families. in China that are struggling at the moment. There are real economic challenges. House prices have fallen.

One in five young people are struggling to find a job. You have spending. People are not spending as much money as the government would like. They're not fueling the economy. There are real, genuine fears about the economy. And when you get someone like Donald Trump who's talking about a trade war. and tariffs, it kind of ignites a little bit of fear. So as well as poking fun, they've also got that little bit of. fear about what Donald Trump presidency might mean.

I don't think anyone in China likes it. when US-China tensions are high despite the rhetoric that will come. And I mean, I've been in factories right through the likes. of Guangdong, Foshan, real industrial areas where they'll tell you, no, no, we will fight to the bitter end. But at the same time, they're worried. about how their workers are going to feed their families. And are they going to have to shut down? Where are they going to sell to if they can't sell to the United States? So there are these long term fears.

And I think that when it comes to when you speak to people, that comes through. So, yeah, a figure of fun, but also a figure of fear. Jonathan, what about Southeast Asia? I mean, you know, several decades ago when I was growing up, you know, a lot of parents in Asia, especially Southeast Asia, they would consider sending their children to universities. in America, the U.K. and so on. Do you think they still see America in that light, or are they starting to feel differently about America.

because of what's been happening with all the all the things. that we've been talking about, like tariffs and so on? I think it is shifting. I mean, it's fascinating. It does vary a bit from country to country. You know, obviously in places like for example, Muslim Malaysia and Indonesia, there's been more skepticism of the U.S. in the past, in particular its support for Israel. Thailand has always, where I'm living, has always been incredibly pro-American. They love everything. They love big American cars. They love American food. Not that much. They prefer Thai food,

but they they love this country and Western music. Cowboy themes. But. it's not a Trump thing in particular. In fact, I think in Southeast Asia, there's quite a strong admiration for Trump, partly because he's a celebrity, because he's entertaining, but also because he's a strong man. And I think a lot of people relate to that. But the US in general, there has been a shift in attitudes. It is seen as a less dependable partner. There is an awareness that America is disengaging.

In Thailand, there's quite a lot of anger actually, over the US, over various things like lecturing over human rights. I mean, there they're in Vietnam. That's a fascinating country because they had, of course, a very long and bitter war against the United States. And yet until recently, there were very, very pro-American, but partly because Vietnam has a historical mistrust of China, and they see the US as standing up to China as a potential partner. Trump's tariffs have been a profound shock in Vietnam. Vietnam's entire economic model and its projections for the next 20 years.

were hung on the idea of expanding trade with the US. So I think all of this, the sort of sheer transactional nature of Trump. and his sort of fickle engagement. with the region, I think, is making people wake up. I think we will see a steady shift away from us. Soft power. What we won't get, I think, is a shift automatically to China. China is actually not particularly good at soft power.

Nobody in this part of the world really sees China politically as a model. It's a unique model. China. So, you know, we're in a kind of limbo where attitudes are shifting. And I think that makes it a very confusing time for this region. A very worrying time, too. They know the old order that they have thrived under for decades is going, but they're really not sure what's going to replace it. I just thought that point of students, I mean, obviously. a number of Chinese students also went to the United States. And I met, you know, a couple of them who were back here on holiday.

and at the time when Washington had turned around and said, you know what? We might not be letting Chinese students in. There was absolute fear, absolute panic. They were all heading. to the US embassy wondering what's happening with their student visas. And that's done lasting damage because many of them are thinking, despite the fact that Donald Trump said in the last couple of weeks, you know, we're going to allow 600,000 Chinese students in. Many are thinking, well, really, is that going to last? So that kind of exchange that you used to have between China.

and the United States, those links are beginning to sever. And I think that's worrying many analysts because it means. that that kind of almost way of meeting different cultures. is also beginning to disintegrate. And I think it means that each side doesn't really understand the other in the same way that it did before. Would you say America is still revered, respected. in Southeast Asia and in China? Jonathan? Not revered. Respected, yes.

I mean, it's still an enormous influence. No one can quite replace that sort of presence of America. in so many aspects of daily life quickly. But I think, you know, there's deep, deep unease about where the. United States is going and where it's going to leave these countries here. They've been so dependent on the US, they just assumed, I think, that the US worldview, which was essentially benign and. and in favor of the freest trade possible, they assumed that would go on.

And Trump has just thrown a spanner in the works for that. I think US influence, particularly when it comes to to Hollywood, to fashion, to consumer habits. That's going to last a lot longer. US political influence, diplomatic influence, strategic influence. that is definitely going to be challenged and quite quickly. Jonathan, do you think this is going to be the new norm, as in, you know, after the first presidency of Donald Trump, Joe Biden came in and tried to kind of, you know,

repair the relationship, some of the relationship and so on. Or do you think this kind of Trump's America, is it going to be here to stay? Look, I think nothing's going to go back to what it was. You know, even Joe Biden's genuine, very sincere efforts to reconstruct that kind of American-led order. after the first Trump term really didn't get a lot of traction. I think people had lost a lot of trust, and a lot of it was quite ill-thought out. I mean, he had his alliance of democracies, and yet he had to include crucial allies like Vietnam, which is about one.

of the most undemocratic countries you can find anywhere. It didn't really feel like Biden had a clear sort. of program for reestablishing that order. Look, the US has been an erratic partner in this region for quite a long time. Remember, under the administrations of George Bush junior, they were totally focused on the war on terror on the Middle East. They almost abandoned Asia.

The policy on North Korea went backwards and forwards at that time. I mean, I think there is an awareness. There's been an awareness for a long time that the US is fickle. It's subject to electoral cycles. The sheer brazenness. of Trump's program and its sort of brutal sort of transactional nature, I think, has woken them up to the fact that America is not a long term friend. It's just a country you have to engage with. I would say, though, that if the US is disengaging, if they're going to have to accept the fact that it's no longer.

a reliable partner, there isn't really anything to replace it. You know, we're going to have all these countries in Asia Pacific, this vast region, these huge economies, but no overriding architecture. There's increasing trade architecture. There are multilateral trade deals being worked on that. are locking their economies together, but nothing in security. You don't have anything like NATO in the Asia-Pacific region. So when the US, as the defining power moves away, is going to be. a very, very shaky and uncertain sort of pattern.

of relations between the countries in this region. I think when it comes to China's view of the United States, I think what China has seen is just how strong it can be. You know, not only has it used these that rare earth leverage. to get a better trade deal, and, you know, come to some kind of truce and humble Washington, in a way, what it's realized is that economic strength can be used. as a weapon and will they can use it again. Many people in South Korea and Japan would say, no, we are staunch allies,

but that that friendship doesn't necessarily mean the same thing as it did before. And so I think, as Jonathan said, I don't think. there's much I don't think Beijing will step in to replace it, but Beijing will think, hang on a second, how can we exploit it? How can we use this as an opportunity, even though they're facing down their own economic challenges? I will add one thing, which is that what was interesting about the Trump sort.

of whirlwind through Asia was we all focused on the big events he wanted, you know, this peace deal between Thailand and Cambodia, his meeting with President XI on the sidelines, his officials actually did hammer out. some really quite detailed trade agreements, particularly the one with Malaysia, which may be a model. And in them you can see some really quite ambitious attempts. to lock these Asian countries in on the American side of any dispute.

It's very interesting language. It's causing a lot of unease. in countries who signed these deals, particularly Malaysia, also in Thailand. And I will be very interested to see how that works. The problem for the US is China takes a long view. It's been engaged in this deeply entwined diplomacy in the region for decades. It never changes its stance. The US can change every year. Right now, these deals are on paper in practice. Will the US be able to tie these countries to their side. in a full on trade spat with China?

I would be surprised if that actually works out, but you can see the US making efforts to anchor as many countries. as possible to its side in a coming trade dispute. We'll leave it there. Jonathan and Laura, thank you so much for joining me, and thank you for watching or listening. Click like and subscribe so you won't miss an episode. And if you have any questions, leave us your questions. in the comment section and I'll make sure to. These walking encyclopedias of Asia.

We'll make sure to ask your questions next time we have them back on. But for now, thank you for watching or listening and see you next time. Bye.