Why Japan’s PM is calling an early election - Asia Specific podcast, BBC World Service

Only three months into the top job, Japan's first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, has decided to ride on soaring public support and called a snap election. She's been full of surprises in the past week alone.

She set the internet a buzz with a surreal video of her. and her South Korean counterpart having a drum duet, followed by an anime selfie with Italy's first female leader, Giorgia Meloni. But in November, we told you about her comments regarding Taiwan, which made Beijing absolutely furious. So why is she calling an election so soon? Opposition parties were quick to react. Some called her move full of lies and opportunistic.

Why is she taking this political gamble? And what is she hoping to achieve? I'm Mariko in Singapore, and this is Asia Specific from the BBC World Service.

Twice a week, we bring you Asia Pacific stories. unpacked by those who know them best. And today I have Professor Seijiro Takeshita from University of Shizuoka. We also have Yuna Ku from the BBC's Korean Service. Welcome both. Let's start with you, Takeshita sensei. And for viewers and listeners who don't follow Japanese politics closely, I want to explain why Ms. Takaichi has decided to call this election so soon, because she's only been the Prime Minister since October,

but she wasn't elected by the Japanese public. She became the leader of the ruling party. So this is about her wanting a mandate, especially because she currently has a minority government? Absolutely. I think she wants to utilise her popularity. or I should say her cabinet's popularity, which is 75% extremely high. But when you look at the fact. that LDP, the ruling party, their support level is only 37.

So what she really wants to do is almost transfer her popularity. into making sure that LDP will have a sole majority, because a lot of, you know, I would say policies that's going. to be very difficult to basically pass through from here onwards, security measures or, you know, taxation issues, what have you. So basically, she wants to solidify her position.

to make things smoother at a later stage. Well, as Professor Takeshita said, Yuna, Ms. Takaichi does enjoy very high approval rating. Numbers vary, but we're talking about between 60 to 80%. So I guess she's having a bit of a moment. And one thing that's gone down quite well was that drum diplomacy, if you like, with the South Korean president, what made it even more surreal was the fact that. Ms. Takaichi was seen to be more hawkish conservative.

Some critics even call her ultra right nationalist. While president Lee, he was also known. for anti-japan rhetoric during the election campaign. So the two leaders, who many didn't expect to get along too well, actually having such a fun time that really surprised both Japanese. and South Korean public, Yuna? Yeah, true. It was something totally unexpected and surprising, as you said, because you don't usually expect that level of informality during the summit,

leaders playing drums together, even wearing matching jacket, blue uniforms with their names on the chest. So visually, that was so, so much shocking for both the public in Japan and South Korea. And from a South Korean perspective, you might imagine that kind of scene. probably with some other countries, but not so much with Japan, given how complex.

and precarious their bilateral relation relationship has been. And considering that Japan's image in Korea as being. quite reserved and formal. So a lot of people even joked that it looked. like an AI generated image or video. And many people in both South Korea and Japan were commenting, they're so unlike the image they perceived themselves at first.

So, this really shows that, just how unexpected it was. Yeah, I had to actually double check whether it was a real legitimate image. by actually going to the official account of the Japanese government. I thought it was interesting, though, to see comments. after the video was also posted as well. A lot of people in Japan saying, so, can we really trust president Lee. or is this just all an act?

What was the comments in the South Korean side, given Ms. Takaichi's previous image? Do you think her image has somewhat changed. because of that drumming session? Um, there were some mixed reactions, actually. Some people saw it as a refreshing signal in bilateral relationship. And because as you said, I think the reaction in Japan. and South Korea is very much similar, because. because just as president Lee has been perceived in Japan.

as being an anti-Japanese kind of figure, Prime Minister Takaichi has also been viewed in South Korea as. a far right figure who often made some aggressive comments towards South Korea. For example, like, supporting controversial visit. to the Yasukuni Shrine and her strong comments on territorial dispute. So, in that context, the level of hospitality that she showed. during the summit helped these kind of concerns that,

after Prime Minister Takaichi and President Lee took into office, the bilateral relationship might sour further. So I think it was quite a clever approach. for Prime Minister Takaichi to take. Well, you know, if I may just add to that comment, you know, I think what we shouldn't forget is that, you know, we're all constantly talking about Japan and Korea, but the real reason why solidification is taking place,

I think we have to step back a little bit to look look at this situation. because in any organizational coalition, any organization coalition, the biggest cement is to have a common thread or common enemy. And, you know, it takes two to tango. And these two wonderful drummers were having a good time. And you know, as you pointed out, there are so many things. that we at least agree to disagree.

At least we're on table. Now, things are improving quite significantly, and everybody's applauding with the exception. of one country and that is China. They don't like Japan and Korea to have good friendship. That kind of answers. You know what's really behind it all? Yeah, I thought president Lee had quite an amazing few weeks, you know, having that wifi with his wife and Xi Jinping and Xi Jinping's wife.

in Beijing before visiting Tokyo. A Japanese government spokesperson actually told me. that this drumming session was arranged because president Lee told. Ms. Takaichi that he would love to be able to play drums, and there were also complimentary about. how he picked up the skill very, very quickly. You know, as you said, this relationship could sour very quickly. if and when it does. As we've been witnessing over and over many times in the past,

but for now at least, we have a very happy two leaders. Yuna Ku in Seoul, thank you so much for joining me on Asia Specific. Thank you for having me. You mentioned China, and that's basically why Japan. and South Korea have been building closer ties, closer relationships. I have to say, Ms. Takaichi has had. some gold social media moments with President Trump of the United States.

We're doing something right. But also with Giorgia Meloni of Italy very recently. But one country that she has managed to really upset was China, and her critics would argue that she's damaging Japan's national interest. Do you think that would matter to voters in Japan when they take to the polls? Absolutely not. To have at least a firm stance, unlike the previous government, which had a very,

in my opinion, boneless, spineless policy against espionage or, you know, say security matters in Japan. Well, you know, the Japanese public are basically backing her, you know, policies, which is neutralizing, you know, into the middle of the road. because Japan had been far too much in basically, I would say this, browning their nose almost to the Chinese authorities.

So, you know, the Japanese public for that reason is. as you know, they're pacifist people, you know, very much pacifist people. But in spite of that, they're clapping their hands. They're giving a standing ovation to Ms. Takaichi and her regime. because she is only trying to normalize the issue. I remember when she was appointed as the Prime Minister, I remember your analysis saying that a lot of local media, foreign media, are labeling her as ultra right nationalist,

but she's bringing it back to center. Of course, opinions do vary, but I do also remember at the time, many people in Japan who I usually consider feminists, they weren't really celebrating the fact that Japan finally had. its first female prime minister. You say the approval rating is really high. in Japan of Ms. Takaichi at the moment. Have you noticed kind of the tone shifting, those feminists who weren't really happy that.

Ms. Takaichi became the first female Prime Minister? Do you think their opinions have shifted. because of her performance since October? No, I don't think so, because people who criticise her for very, in my opinion, petty things, you know, which could be of a personal opinion. or whatever really isn't looking at the big picture. Let's not forget that according to Yomiuri, I think, polls, 80% of people support, you know, Takaichi-san.

and the ages between 18 to 39 young generations are supporting her. That tells you that, you know, she is getting a lot of support. from, you know, people who have much more of an open mind. And of course, she has her traditional values, which I personally, for example, disagree with. For example, you know, not giving the rights of gay marriage, etcetera, etcetera. But, you know, that's a personal opinion and. she's not really pushing it, you know, to an extent, where,

you know, you might be confiscated and put to jail, you know. like in some other countries that we're seeing right now, unfortunately, you know, that's not the case. I don't think she's bringing it. to a situation where the public is feeling uneasy. But, you know, people who have been criticising her from the beginning. is criticising her because they want to criticise her. And therefore, you know, they're often playing politics.

and not really talking about her policies. But I guess, as Yuna said, because of her previous visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, you know, whether you personally agree with the prime ministers. or lawmakers visiting the shrine that enshrines the war dead, including war criminals, that's another matter. But, you know, I think that's why many in countries like South Korea. and probably China are skeptical. whether this happy, smiley, friendly Ms. Takaichi might just be an act.

And maybe when she gets the mandate, she might not only try and boost military spending, but she might actually even go a step further. and try to change Japan's pacifist constitution, which many neighbors would be quite afraid of. You know, you're talking about Japan being a threat. Okay, we are going to reach 2% of GDP in our, you know, armed spending. But, you know, that's way lower than 5% target of Europe.

And why are we increasing it 2%? And that is because we have a neighbor. who has increased their military spending by 900% from 92 and. basically constantly invading our water sea zones as well as our airfields. So, you know, basically it's China who has, for example, I think it was approximately 70 attacking submarines, with five of them being nuclear, four of them with ICBM missiles.

Japan has 24 diesel submarines. Now, who is the threat? Who is the aggressor and aggressee? The only countries that are basically utilising Japan. or labeling it that way is China, and also at times South Korea, when they want to basically increase their votes when it comes to election. Here comes the Japan bashing time. And there is, you know, a very big misunderstanding.

You know, that the Japanese public may be smeared. into that kind of situation, which I think is totally absurd. It's interesting. You you talked about the pacifist constitution and. and I've also been wondering about this timing of her calling the election. because come August, her supporters, some of whom are very conservative, they would probably want her to visit the Yasukuni Shrine.

So I was wondering whether she decided to call it. in the middle of the winter, which some people have criticized, that some voters might choose not to go out. because it's just too cold outside. But the timing of it might actually work in her favor, because she doesn't have to make that decision. whether to visit the Yasukuni Shrine, because obviously her visiting would really anger China and South Korea, whereas her choosing not to visit. would also possibly anger some of her supporters.

Well, that's a very interesting observation. which I honestly haven't looked at because I was constantly looking at it. from, you know, budget point of view. And, you know, whether the fiscal year 26 budget would be in time, which probably wouldn't, you know, but yeah, from, I would say geopolitical factors and after having so much, you know, unnecessary time spent, wasted, on this, row with China, I think. Yeah, she might have considered that as a factor to utilise,

you know, the current timing to basically solidify her position. There are also domestic issues, aren't there? Like the cost of living crisis. And we're talking about Japan, where inflation is something. that none of us were very used to. I don't recall things ever getting more expensive growing up in Japan. And there are other issues, like the ruling party slush fund scandals, which really angered some of the voters.

So could this actually backfire and possibly her not getting. the majority government possibly losing more seats than what she has now? People always say it's the economy, stupid. You know, at least they say that in the United States. But the danger here is that, you know, her expansion fiscal policy is fine. I think, you know, 20 trillion is hitting the right spot as well. It's not too large, not too small. and she's hitting on the right points, as you just pointed out.

One of it is basically to cope with inflation. But the negative part is that. if her expansion of fiscal policy induces further weakening the yen, it's going to be a double hit for Japan, especially when we are importing stuff. And if we're getting inflation, that's a double hit. And, you know, our wages are rising, people say, but if you look at the real wages, it hasn't risen at all. So basically we're constantly seeing our real wage actually going down.

And for that reason, there could be frustrations, amongst the public that could emerge. Well, we'll see whether this political gamble pays off for Ms. Takaichi. Thank you so much, Professor Seijiro Takeshita. And we also had Yuna Ku from the BBC's Korean Service. You've been watching Asia Specific from the BBC World Service. with me, Mariko Oi in Singapore. If you have any questions or thoughts on what we've covered in this episode. or any other stories from the region, please leave us a comment below.

You can also get in touch with us on email asiaspecific@bbc.co.uk. And you know the drill. Click like and subscribe so you never miss an episode. Until next time. See you.