Trump in China, can the superpowers find common ground? - Asia Specific podcast, BBC World Service

The leaders of the world's two most powerful countries, the US and China, are meeting. But Laura, it's far from clear. whether the two men are seeing this summit the same way. Well, President Xi will push Donald Trump on Taiwan and. trying to lower trade tariffs on Chinese goods going to the United States. Donald Trump, on the other hand, will want. China's help to end the war in Iran. And he'll want Chinese to buy, buy, buy so many US goods.

And that's what we're looking out for. So it begs, I guess, the broader question of just how well those two leaders understand each other. And what about the broader populations? As always, I'm Mariko Oi in Singapore. and this is Asia Specific from the BBC World Service. Twice a week we bring you Asia Pacific stories. unpacked by those who know them best. So when we talk about China, we love to go to our correspondent in Beijing,

Laura Bicker. Welcome back. Nice to see you again. And also in Washington, D.C., I have Zhengyu Huang, a former white House fellow during the Obama administration. He was also the head of a prominent Chinese American group. called the Committee of 100. He also recently wrote a book called Rethinking China. Zhangyu, welcome to the program. You've got an impressive resume. So without taking up the entire duration of the podcast,

maybe if you can briefly introduce yourself to our viewers and listeners. Oh, thank you so much, Mariko, a real pleasure. So I was born in Shanghai, moved to the States when I was ten. My father was one of the first generation of Chinese students to study in America. Grew up in Los Angeles, went to Stanford and then Harvard Business School. I was a managing director at Intel for seven years, and then I started several businesses in US and China. Yeah. And Intel, you led the negotiations with the Chinese government.

on IP and 4G partnerships, didn't you? So we want to get to that. But Laura, firstly, we spoke last month. when we thought that Mr. Trump was going to go to China. And then obviously the trip got postponed because of the war in Iran. Firstly, what's the mood like in China now? I think when it comes to the mood, when I've spoken to Chinese officials. and academics, I think the mood here is quietly confident. I think there's a feeling that a deal can be done with Donald Trump. And I think also when it comes to the kind of breakthroughs,

there will be deliverables, you know, the likes of, perhaps a Board of Trade, a board of governance on certain areas. There will be, I believe, a certain kind of breakthroughs. in that China will offer to buy, buy, buy certain things. from us soybeans to beef, to other agricultural products. And I think where they are still divided is on the issue of tariffs. It may well be that when it comes to that agreement between President XI.

and Donald Trump that they came to in Busan last October. It may well be that they just resume that if it is successful, if they do manage to kind of get something over the line, there may be something further, but I don't think expectations are that high. I think the key thing for both the Chinese and the US side, from all the officials I've been speaking to, is that this meeting is happening at all because the last time. a US president came here was Donald Trump himself back in 2017. And we're looking eight years on, we're looking at a very different China,

a China that is kind of feeling a bit more confident, a China that is pushing itself to the center of the geopolitical stage. And we've seen that over the last few months. We've had a parade of world leaders from the UK, Sir Keir Starmer, Canada's Mark Carney, the South Korean leader. You've had also, you know, Finland's leader, Germany. Germany's leader. So you've had all of these leaders coming to do deals. with China and for Beijing. That's a real gift.

So Z, I hope you don't mind me calling you Z as I saw many of your friends. Going with that nickname. Laura was just talking about how the Chinese are. maybe hopeful that a deal could be reached, but maybe the big difference on tariffs. What do you think does President Trump want out of this summit? Not just tariffs but obviously the war in Iran. Maybe he wants some help from the Chinese. Yeah. I think there's probably three topics on both sides Iran, Taiwan and trade.

But probably both sides will have different presidents, I think from the American side probably starting with Iran, then trade, and then finally Taiwan. And then the Chinese will probably be always starting with Taiwan. and then trade. And lastly, Iran. Indeed, Laura, the Iranian foreign minister, was just in Beijing, wasn't he? And we spoke extensively on this podcast. about what role can China play in this war in the Middle East.

Has anything changed in your view? Do you think Beijing, President Xi would like to discuss this. with President Trump or as he says, would it be Taiwan. and then tariffs followed by the Middle East? So just to kind of bring listeners and viewers up to date, China has backed Pakistan's peace proposal. And as I said, has been working behind the scenes. with its long term ally, Iran, to try to talk about how the two sides,

how the US and how Iran can get to the negotiating table. Now, when it comes to this, Beijing isn't going. to want to wade into this conflict. It really will want to stay on the sidelines. But there is no doubt that Beijing wants an end to this war. Just wanting to ask about, you know, when it comes. to tariffs that the US put on China, because it was quite clear that China was the US's main target. But the on that as well, the language kept changing the percentage it went.

At one point it went up to 145%, but then Beijing retaliated, and so on and so on and Z. Do you think you you've spoken quite a lot. about how American lawmakers often misunderstood China. Do you think Mr. Trump and the administration underestimated China? Do you think they thought that maybe China would be easier to coerce. with this kind of tariffs? Yeah, let me give a little context. So you mentioned I was president of Committee of 100 for about four years.

So the committee is a non-profit started about 30. plus years ago at the urging of Henry Kissinger. He was very good friends with the noted architect I.M. Pei. And over dinner one night, Kissinger said to him, you know, US-China relations at the time was on the up and up. and Chinese Americans, you should play a more productive role. So that nonprofit was started about 30 plus years ago. for two dual purposes Chinese-American inclusion in America. and a more productive US-China relationship.

And our position has always been. You can safeguard civil liberties. in America while protecting national security. And then I got really curious because, as you know, for 40 years, the byword in the US when it comes to China was engagement. And about ten years ago, under President Trump, that fundamentally shifted from engagement. to confrontation and competition. And, you know, I'll speak a little bit about the tariffs, because it just seems that all the evidence suggests.

that the Chinese have taken a path of escalation. because we have fervently believed in D.C., that if we just escalate just a little bit, that the other side will eventually yield. However, the other side now also fervently believe that. if they escalate it along with us, that eventually we would give way. So we proposed tariffs on the Chinese. They impose tariffs on us. We put our we put their companies on the entity list.

They put us on their blacklist. We embargoed semiconductors. They embargoed rare earth. We built up our military. They built up our military. So you can see now this path of escalation. And President Trump basically has two choices to escalate further. or to de-escalate and find another set of options. I guess that's the new confident China that Laura was speaking about earlier, that the Trump administration, the second time, is now dealing with.

But he also wrote in your book, when you were working as a white House fellow, that you were surprised by many assumptions under which the U.S. operates on China that are overblown or misleading. So aside from the current administration, what can you give us some examples on how American lawmakers, in your view, gets wrong about China and its population? Yeah, quite a few. For example, if we stay on this topic of trade, you know, generally there's about $600 billion of trade between US and China.

Now, the truth is, China's entry into WTO did destroy a lot. of American manufacturing jobs. I had a chance to speak to, uh, all of the authors of of the China Shock research and pretty much all. of the scholars who researched job creation or destruction. due to China's entry into WTO. The first part is true, but. the second part that, that I was very surprised talking. to the authors of the China Shock and all the other authors,

is that net, equal number of jobs were created. and destroyed by China's entry into the WTO for America. And quite a few scholars actually found. that more jobs net, net were were created because China entering the WTO primarily. because of, you know, lower cost of components, as well as productivity increases. What all of them told me was that China was just a harbinger.

a canary in the coal mine. About the about the concentrated hurt of globalization. and the distributed benefits of globalization, meaning the hurt of globalization was concentrated. in areas where Americans were less mobile, less educated, and the benefits were distributed, especially around the coast, where workers were more mobile, more mobile, and more highly educated. We've been talking about diplomatic tensions, but.

I'm wondering about how both countries people think of each other. Are there any kind of idea, perception that you've heard in China. that you thought, oh, this is quite interesting. So there has been a survey in the last few months that shows. that China's perception of the United States has kind of dropped. in terms of it being this shining city on a hill. The idea that it's a kind of an ideal of democracy. And those surveys were conducted here in China.

But I think it's quite interesting because I've been in Chongqing lately. and this is the new kind of influencer city. It's in southwestern China. It was once this kind of industrial, gritty hub. But after two decades of state investment where, you know, obviously the local government has gone into huge debt to do it, but it's now this kind of mega city. with towers that rise out of the Yangtze River. And kind of it goes right through all these hillsides.

It's like it's called the cyberpunk capital of the world behind the scenes. If you just go one street back, you'll see workers in their 40s, 50s. and 60s still acting as porters. You see people selling vegetables. They've come from outside of Chongqing, and there are two. The paradox that is China is that it's both. It's got these two lines running. Z. You were earlier talking about America's misunderstandings or misconceptions about China. Have you come across anything that you've noticed. of Chinese misconceptions about America, in your view?

First of all, people to people exchanges. is so important, especially between these two countries. In fact, let us remember. Remember that the two countries actually got together again more than, 50 years ago because an American missed his team bus and then hopped. on the Chinese ping pong team bus. Right? I mean, that really happened. And that kind of ushered in ping pong diplomacy. One sector I really want to double tap is the student population. Right?

At its height, there were more than one million Chinese students studying, uh, in America, and they were under President Obama. There was this idea of 100,000 strong, meaning 100,000 Americans studying in China. Now, unfortunately the numbers of Chinese students studying. in the US has been dropping. One is because the, you know, it's getting harder to get visa,

but also because quite a few parents are concerned about mass shooting. in America, about anti-Asian hate and violence in America. On the other side, really, sadly, right after Covid, when there was still about 300,000 Chinese students. in America, there were about 300 American students in China. Now that number has increased a little bit, but it's still infinitesimal. And I think while it's important to talk about how, you know, the general population view each other,

but in the levers of government and the levers of, commerce where it really matters, you need people who truly understand each other, who worked. and studied and speak the language of the other, because those are the key levers of exchange. And unfortunately, you know, especially from the American side, we are not equipping Americans to be able. to, you know, work, compete or confront. In terms of China and America. It's no doubt that the people to people exchanges have been Utterly decimated.

since the pandemic. And then onwards. And then, of course, we've been had a tit for tat when it comes. to visas, both the US and China. There are 277,000, I reckon, US Chinese students in the United States. There are only a thousand or so US students here in China. Now that might. We don't know what the reason is, but Nicholas Burns, who was the previous US ambassador here, had long conversations with me about this.

And, you know, an interview about this. They were desperately trying hear from the American side. to push people to people exchanges. It was a key, key aspect of that policy. And by the US administration, by the Biden administration, to try to get more American students, more American scholars here on the ground. But every single time they started to set up any kind of exchange program here.

with with students and with Americans and Chinese run by the embassy. It was blocked and it was stopped. I think the 120 times. Let me let me interrupt that. I'll tell you why. It's very clear. I've spoken to pretty much all the Chinese language programs in America. American students are not interested anymore. They don't see business opportunities in China. They don't see learning Chinese to be helpful for finding a job.

They don't see, learning Chinese, being helpful for getting into the foreign services and working in D.C.. And students vote with their with their feet. If they don't see an opportunity, they don't go there. And and secondarily, and this is something had nothing to do with Chinese media. Unfortunately, it's our own making that. for a long time, I had American friends coming to me saying, hey, if I go to China, would I be stopped by the Chinese government? Would I be basically held ransom?

I think this this is because, you know, there were, uh, a year or so or a couple years where there were foreign, people with foreign passports that were stopped in China. Now, I can't say if they were isolated or it was pervasive. You're on the ground, you know, more. But that type of reporting basically meant no American actually wanted to go. to China because they were afraid of, quote, unquote, being stopped and kidnapped in China by the Chinese authorities.

Let me tell you what it's like here on the ground. Yes, China is welcoming lots of tourists. You know, you can enter visa free, but. as a journalist, you're not entirely welcome. Even in Chongqing, I'm stopped, and questioned by the authorities. I have been detained on numerous occasions for asking questions. We have very few journalists on the ground here, and although they keep granting visas, to Chinese journalists, the same as not being reciprocated.

So we have very few US journalists on the ground. And when we talk about people to people exchanges and understanding each other, the only way we're ever going to do that is if we allow people on the ground, and if we are allowed to report and say things freely. And that cannot happen here. Even asking people about politics, they are scared to say anything because they fear being recognized, or they fear saying something that is not on the party line. And I think that is something that. even though China is looking more open, it's looking more transparent.

It's looking like this beacon of stability. and this very unpredictable world. And in the face of an unpredictable president on the ground, for those who are not coming in to take snaps of Shanghai, Beijing. or Chongqing on the ground, things are still difficult. Um, and that makes people to people exchanges, genuine people to people exchanges quite difficult. Yeah. I think you're absolutely right. The truth is, you know, this concept of reciprocity applies not just in journalism but.

probably in trade and commerce and many other areas where, especially from an American perspective, you know, the idea is. when you come when a Chinese company or Chinese journalists come to America, you enjoy rights almost just the same as an American, you know, uh, entity. However, when an American journalist or an American company go to China, they don't get the same rights as a Chinese company. Right. So I think reciprocity has been one of the defining issues, uh,

that has plagued kind of relations between the two countries. Do you think, though it would be possible at that government. to government level for the two superpowers to see eye to eye, because historically the two countries have co-operated on a number of issues? See. I've spoken to pretty much all the former ambassadors to China. And, you know, one of them who worked with Kissinger,

in 1972 told me, you know, one, one amazing takeaway from that time was, politicians from both sides. decided to basically come up with a pure fiction, a made up story, right? Called the one China policy completely made up makes no sense. It's completely devoid from reality, but it's actually brought prosperity. to not just between us and China, but really between China and Taiwan.

For the longest time, the largest foreign direct investor. in China wasn't the Americans or the Europeans. It was the Taiwanese, right at the height, uh, the Taiwanese had about 14% of the tax receipts in China. Even today, more than a million Taiwanese live and work in China. And so I do want to highlight the point that diplomacy has worked and. there is a possibility for diplomacy. I think when it comes to those possibilities. For diplomacy, I think, again, this is. where the US and China are talking, um, at different levels.

So the preparation for this summit, for instance, has been really difficult. because the Chinese have been absolutely exasperated by the United States. So when it comes to the preparation for summits, how it usually works is at a lower level. You know, you've got, uh, academics or you've got groups. of people who come to agreement, and then it goes up. to the next level of officials, and then they come to an agreement. Then it goes up to the next level officials and everything's fine tuned.

And, you know, you dot the I's and you stroke the T's, and then it finally goes all the way up to leader, to leader. That has not happened in this occasion. Now, the Chinese appear willing to live with it. They want this meeting to happen, this idea that you don't sit down. at a lower level and then work things up and get all the details ready. for the two leaders in the Trump administration. That is completely not the way it works. A kind of likes the president kind of likes to do it himself.

Whereas in China, in South Korea, Japan, elsewhere, they like to work things up. They like to go right from the bottom, right to the top. And in this occasion, with this summit, the US has likely been distracted by the war in Iran. So you've got this case right now where you've got. Chinese officials putting their head in their hands and going, right. Okay, well, we just have to get on with it. So the preparation for the summit itself has not been ideal. We can keep going forever, I think. But, we shall pause this conversation here,

Laura and Z, thank you so much. And Z, I know it's the middle of the night, so thank you so much. for staying up in the Asia time zone to do this podcast with us. You've been watching Asia Specific from the BBC World Service. with me, Mariko Oi in Singapore. If you have any questions or thoughts on what we covered in this episode. or any other stories from the region, please leave us a comment below. You can also get in touch with us on email. That's Asiaspecific@bbc.co.uk.

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