The US wants easier access to Indonesia’s airspace. Why? - Asia Specific podcast, BBC World Service

Indonesia is considering giving the US. military easier access to its airspace, but it's causing some serious political friction in Jakarta, Bill. Yeah. Mariko. Under this deal, US military aircraft would be able to fly. through Indonesian airspace without getting permission, or at least having a very streamlined permission process every time. Now, a lot of people are asking, why exactly would the Americans. or the Indonesians want to do this? Well, the government in Jakarta is emphasising that this is just a discussion for now.

But some people are also worried that President Prabowo Subianto. could be putting the country's relationship with China at risk. So why is he even considering it? I'm Mariko in Singapore and this is Asia Specific from the BBC World Service. Twice a week we bring you Asia Pacific stories. unpacked by those who know them best. And today I have Bill Birtles from the Asia Specific podcast team. Hello, Mariko. Bill was a correspondent in Indonesia.

We also have Randy Mulyanto, who is a journalist based in Jakarta, joining us. Welcome both to Asia Specific. Thank you for having me, Mariko. So, Randy, can you tell us what exactly this proposed deal is? So basically the deal, if implemented, if enacted, would basically allow. US military planes to fly over Indonesian territory freely. without any restricted access. The US military would only then need to notify the Indonesians.

if they ever make such flights. But so far, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson, you know, Madame Yvonne Mewengkang, said in a press briefing. on Thursday that the proposal was actually still. under internal discussion by the Indonesian government. She also said the mechanisms and other details would need careful study, and the country's defence and foreign ministries. are still discussing this proposal closely. So, to end it up basically,

the spokesperson also said that the deal is not yet final. and it's not be taken as a fixed confirmed policy so far. So, Randy, it seems like the Indonesian government is emphasising. that this is still just a discussion. But initially we were hearing different things. from different departments of the government. Won't we? Yeah. If I remember correctly, Reuters news agency was the first who reported on the content of the letter. So basically the Foreign Ministry, you know, sent a letter to.

the Defence Ministry saying that if Indonesia were to accept, America's proposal on this, you know, the overflight clearance, it would risk entangling Indonesia into future South China Sea conflicts. But again, as what the spokesperson said last week on Thursday. that both ministries are actually discussing this matter internally. So, Bill, how unusual is this? Are there any other Asian countries which allow the US military to do it? And I guess also, why do the US want to do this?

Yeah, it's very unusual because Indonesia is not a US military ally. It doesn't have a sort of mutual defence treaty or anything like that. So you look at countries like Australia or. the Five Eyes countries, Australia, Canada, the UK, New Zealand, the US, these are close military allies of the United States. It's a very different situation for. American Air Force planes to be flying over those countries.

These countries nearly always have some sort of alliance. or a long standing agreement, a mutual defence agreement, something along those lines. Indonesia just doesn't have that sort of agreement with the United States. It's very proud of its long standing, free and active foreign policy stance of not being aligned. Now, why would the Americans want to do this? Well, in recent years, the US has put a lot of military assets. into Northern and Western Australia.

Now, if there was to be a conflict in the South China Sea or over Taiwan, obviously involving China, the US has these assets in places like Australia. They want to get those to the region. You pretty much have to fly. over Indonesian airspace to get to that theatre of conflict. You can understand what the Americans are thinking. I think it's more curious, Randy's obviously been following the discussion in Indonesia, just what Indonesia's population makes of this. Yeah, I think it's getting some mixed reaction because, I mean,

you know, some Indonesians believe that it's not going to be the case. But obviously, some Indonesians are concerned that perhaps, you know, the government would sell Indonesia's sovereignty to the US, because we have to remember that this is actually the first time this proposal. in, you know, in recent memory has been made public. Even we have to go back to. basically Indonesia's long standing foreign policy position. And just like what Bill mentioned there, Indonesia does not have any foreign military bases. It does not host any foreign militaries in its territory,

so this will indeed be something to watch out for closely. But I think I just want to add to what the Foreign Ministry spokesperson said. in a recent press briefing last week on Thursday. So she said that the US was the party who proposed the blanket. overflight clearance, not Indonesia. And what the spokesperson said here is also interesting. as it has reflected the government's stance so far. You know, she said any forms of cooperation, including with the US, quote, remain firmly under Indonesia's sovereignty.

and is subject to applicable national mechanisms. As Randy said, Indonesia has traditionally chosen not to take sides. between the US and China. Some seem to be worried that this proposed deal could put. Indonesia's relationship with China at risk. Has Beijing said anything about this? Yeah. So the Chinese government, when this news first came out, said. that military agreements in this region should not be used.

against any third party. Third party obviously means China. Then the Chinese government also suggested. that this sort of thing would go against either the norms. or the spirit of ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The idea that if Indonesia was to do a deal with the Americans, which would basically allow Indonesian airspace to be this corridor. between Australia and the South China Sea, that this would be against the spirit of ASEAN,

because they would be doing a deal which would be harming the interests of, well, China is not an Asean member, but of a country in the region. So, you know, there's been this kind of argument from Beijing. that, hey, hey, hey, you shouldn't do this for all sorts of reasons. But then the state media, which of course is known to be. a little bit more forthright with its commentary, has been saying that, hang on, Indonesia is supposed to be a neutral country. It's not supposed to take sides. And if you do a deal with the Americans that allows.

Indonesian airspace to be this corridor, to be this sort of launch pad to hurt our interests in the region. Then you're basically taking sides and you shouldn't do that. So that's been the messaging from the Chinese government. But let's face it, you'd expect that. because that's the sort of messaging that Beijing always puts out. when it believes its interests in the region are potentially harmed. And what are its interests? Well, the Chinese navy is now the world's largest. They've been building aircraft carriers at a pretty rapid clip.

They clearly are up in China, are building a military of this size. and scale because they want to be the dominant military power in Asia. Randy, how do people in Indonesia feel about this proposed deal? Because Indonesia has quite close ties to China. when it comes to trade, economy, even investment. Yeah. Mariko, I think it reminds me of. what the current president, you know, President Prabowo Subianto, said in October 2024, the first week he became president,

you know, he said a thousand friends are too few, an enemy is too many. So this kind of, I would say, a misalignment if this proposal were ever implemented, you know, with the president's words and then with the proposed deal could make. some Indonesians think what is actually happening. So I think some Indonesians would be wondering as well. whether the country could side with one party. or the other instead of, you know, trying to play neutral and,

you know, being friendly towards other countries. I mean, eventually it comes down to what the outcome of the deal is. But again, it definitely causes some confusion among some Indonesians. How is the United States viewed in Indonesia more generally, though, given what's happening in Iran, also the US backing of Israel in Gaza? Yeah. Let me cite some figures from the State of Southeast Asia. 2026 survey report published by the ISEAS Yushok Ishak Institute in Singapore.

So one of the questions being asked actually to Indonesian respondents, as well as respondents from ten other Southeast Asian countries, basically members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The question reads as how confident are you. that the US will, quote, do the right thing to contribute. to global peace, security, prosperity and governance? Over a third of those surveyed, about 36% of those surveyed actually said no confidence.

This was in 2026, but the previous year it was 26.2. So we are seeing an increase in distrust basically towards the US, especially in light of what is now happening in Iran. and its backing of Israel in Gaza. Yeah. Just to jump in, Mariko, on what Randy was saying. That report by the ISEAS Yushok Ishak Institute, there's another question in there. It has what I think is a pretty extraordinary figure. It says if ASEAN, as a bloc, was forced to align one day.

with either the US or China, what would you choose? And far and away, if you look at this graph that they produced, for those listening, it had Indonesia. the highest 80% of respondents in Indonesia said, well, China, 80%. And then it drops down quite a bit to countries like Malaysia and Singapore. Right down the bottom. It's the Philippines. Only 23% of respondents in the Philippines.

said if we had to align with one of the great powers, we would want that to be China. The vast majority in the Philippines of respondents said the United States. Now you look at the Philippines, makes perfect sense. It's a strong US ally, treaty ally. But Indonesia is not an ally of China or the US. And yet you have 80% of respondents in that report. And this is a fairly credible report, they do these surveys every year, saying, well, China would be more logical. So that to me, you look at that sort of figure and you look at Prabowo Subianto,

considering what would be at the very least, a sort of closer pragmatic relationship. with the US military, not an alliance or anything, but kind of a relationship that would make things a little smoother. and easier to work with the Americans. And then you look at that figure of the 80% thinking China makes more sense. than the Americans as the country, the great power you'd want to be close to. It's kind of a contradiction, right? What do you think, Randy? What would the president get out of this proposed deal.

if he was to go ahead with it? Yeah, I think that if we are talking about the current situation, it's kind of premature to to conclude. that Indonesia is siding only with either the US or China. Again, we have to wait for the outcome of, you know, of the discussions between the two sides. But I think one thing that the current president and his government could do here, perhaps his administration could reiterate the government's stance. you know, more explicitly, you know, making a direct statement instead. of allowing people to imply or basically make what the president has said so far,

you know, that Indonesia has not sided and will not side with any bloc, and it's open to partnering with other countries that serve its interests. Bill, you mentioned the Philippines and the US. has been quite active in Asia. in recent years, the Philippines, Australia, Japan and so on. Yeah, totally. I mean, as we speak, you've got. the annual Balikatan military exercises going on in the Philippines.

17,000 troops taking part. Now, a lot of those are Philippines and US troops. But you've got Australian forces there for the first time this year. You've got Japanese combat forces there from. the self-defence forces actively taking part in these drills. So I guess you have to you have to take a step back and say, well, it's not like Indonesian troops take part. in these American-led exercises. Indonesia is there as an observer, as is half of South East Asia. But there are countries like the Philippines. that very much go all in with the Americans.

It feels to me like Prabowo Subianto. in recent times, he's been pressing the flesh with world leaders. from Vladimir Putin to Donald Trump and everybody in between. And, you know, Randy could talk about this in a moment because I think. it's fascinating. He was one of the first leaders. to sign up to the Donald Trump led Board of Peace initiative. There was talk of Indonesian peacekeepers being sent to Gaza. He really has been a bit more. of a global statesman compared to previous Indonesian leaders.

And it looks like this is a case of the Americans saying, well, actually, we're happy to have a closer relationship, but we kind of need something. You're in a very strategic position down there in Southeast Asia, and we really need easier access for our forces. And we're not asking for any formal alliance or anything like that. We just need this agreement that would help us. And you can sort of see, it feels to me that President Prabowo is in a bit of a sticky situation,

because it's not like he seems to be actively going out there. and seeking to do some sort of really close alliance deal. But the geopolitics of the region has kind of boxed him. into this position where he has to make a decision. And it's obviously a decision which on the home front in Indonesia might have a bit of pushback. So, Randy, Bill was just talking about President Prabowo meeting all sorts. of state leaders, including President Putin of Russia. Do people in Indonesia care about all this international foreign policy stuff?

Because there are quite a lot of domestic issues. that the president has to tackle as well. Yeah. Many Indonesians pay attention to foreign policy, although local issues are more significant. I mean, when it comes to foreign policy. and how it ties to domestic issues, you know, the ongoing war in Iran. and beyond certainly affects the economy here. Just a few days ago, you know, Non-subsidised fuel, prices have gone up significantly. So this is how basically foreign policy is impacting Indonesia's everyday life.

I think one example here is when Indonesia's Foreign Ministry. and the government said they plan to join the Board of Peace. You know, it has a $1 billion price tag to become a member. So a lot of Indonesians are concerned. because that amount of money could be used to fund other programmes, other priorities such as education, for instance. And this is actually getting more critical here.

It's getting more attention because Indonesia is now carrying out. a free meals programme. You know, the government. of President Prabowo Subianto wants to feed millions of Indonesians. You know, especially it earmarks such a huge money to get this project done. So again, obviously, this is how foreign policy, I think could impact Indonesian everyday life here. Randy, I've heard that Prabowo Subianto has had to come out. and basically deny that Indonesia's government will pay a billion bucks to join the Board of Peace.

What's the latest on that? Yeah. That's right. So the Foreign Ministry so far has said. that the discussion to pertaining to the BOP, or the Board of Peace. has been put on hold because of the rising tensions in the Middle East. So the government wants to prioritise the safety. of Indonesian citizens living in the region first. It's been, what, a year and a half since he became the president. He enjoyed very high approval rating at the start. And we were looking at various opinion polls.

It seems like he's still pretty popular, like 80% approval rating. So given this latest proposed deal with the US military, could this actually affect his popularity, do you think, Randy? I mean, Indonesians, from the way I see it, you know, are more concerned over domestic matters. So, I mean, as long as the government could prioritise domestic matters, I mean, his approval rating could stay the same. I mean, if we refer to those opinion polls. But again, we've, you know, seen various concerns, right?

I mean, for example, Indonesia has gone through a, you know, budget deficit for two months in a row back in February and March. Again, there are job search concerns, you know, basically it's more difficult to get a job, for example, these days for many Indonesians. So again, I think if the government wants to keep the opinion polls, you know, to be in their favour, basically, high approval ratings, they need to get these matters resolved first.

Despite all those domestic challenges that you mentioned, Randy, the president has been making many, many overseas trips. How is that seen by locals? We have to take into account that President Prabowo Subianto has not completed his two years in office. It's almost, say, a year and a half now, around a year and a half now into his presidency. For a lot of Indonesians, I mean, the concern is not the kinds. of countries, you know, the countries that he goes to, but it's more about the frequency and intensity,

because some Indonesians actually might see that the president is not, as you know, does not as prioritised as much. as domestic concerns as what he is needed to be focused on, Mariko. So I think that's the concern here. So we'll wait to find out what the Indonesian government decides. on this possible deal with the US military. Randy and Bill, thank you for joining me on Asia Specific. Thank you, Mariko. Thank you, Mariko. You've been watching Asia Specific from the BBC World Service.

with me, Mariko Oi in Singapore. If you have any questions or thoughts on what we covered in this episode. or any other stories from the region, please leave us a comment below. You can also get in touch with us on email asiaspecific@bbc.co.uk. And click like and subscribe so you never miss an episode. See you next time.