Thailand’s surprise election results - Asia Specific podcast, BBC World Service

Thailand was once seen as one of the fast growing economies of Asia, fueled by factories and a booming tourism sector. But those days are long gone. Those factories have started to pack up and go. to regional rivals like Vietnam, so one would expect. that Thai voters would want to shake things up to jumpstart the economy. But that didn't happen in the country's latest elections. Why did voters choose status quo over change. by backing a pro-establishment party.

Have today's voters given up on the idea that democracy can bring about change? I'm Mariko Oi in Singapore, and this is Asia Specific. from the BBC World Service. Twice a week we bring you. Asia Pacific stories, unpacked by those who know them best. And today I have the BBC's South East Asia correspondent, Jonathan Head. I also have Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak. from Chulalongkorn University. Thank you both for joining me on Asia Specific.

Hi Mariko. Thank you. So let's start by painting the picture, Jonathan, because you've covered many elections across the region. What is the Thai election like? I remember it being quite colourful. You know, all the red shirts and yellow shirts and now orange and so on. But what's been the mood over the last few weeks? They're always colourful. I'm always impressed by the degree of sort of sense of civic duty. with which Thais go to vote.

The seriousness with which they take the very many choices that they're offered. There were 57 parties taking part in this election, some of them with very eccentric agendas. There was one chap who said he was going to go buy nuclear weapons for Thailand. There was a Green party that posters was just entirely full of pictures of pets. But for all of that, you know, I mean, Thais do listen. to policies to varying degrees. It's always an impressive spectacle to me. I enjoy it, it's not as lively as some countries like the Philippines. The Philippines,

you've got so much music, so much showbiz. The Election Commission has quite strict rules about what's allowed. You're not allowed to be giving anything away. They don't have music on or at least don't have performers. on the stage sort of entertainers. But it is a genuinely democratic exercise. To the extent that people are engaged with the process, they hear a lot of the party programmes. Campaigning is very, very dynamic. You get a sense that this is something the country is very used.

to doing now, and by and large, and there will be some criticism, but by and large, voting is also orderly. Lots of officials to show people what to do. To that extent, it looks like quite a healthy democracy. Well, let's unpack the election results, because opinion polls do often get things wrong. But this time it was really different. from how many experts were predicting the results to be. So Thitinan, what happened here? Well, a number of things happened.

I mean, the People's Party was supposed to surge ahead. They were building on a reform drive going back to 2018, 2019. They won. They came in third. 2019 they won the election in 2023 before being dissolved. And then as a new party. People's party had a lot of momentum. You mentioned the yellow shirts, Mariko. I mean, the yellow shirts. The problem we had in the past with yellow shirts, could not win an election. They represented, they were the foot soldiers of the establishment, the conservative royalist establishment.

And they went up against the Thaksin party machine. back in the last 25, 26 years. Really. But this time, the first time that the establishment that. the yellow shirts used to represent, they now have won the election. behind Bhumjaithai party, the colour this time is blue, and it's also a green colour represented by a medium sized party. So together these two parties are through and through. royalist establishment parties. And they've won the election decisively.

Jonathan, Thitinan just mentioned the establishment. You hear this word quite often in Thai politics, but what exactly does it mean? Golly, that is the difficult question. I'm sure if you were to ask Thitinan as well defining it, it's hard. because it's kind of amorphous. There's lots of elements in it. I'd say Thailand is. a deeply conservative country, partly because it was never colonised. It never had that kind of radical, foundational myth of resistance.

that many former colonised countries have. And it has, at its heart, a highly revered monarchy and also a very powerful monarchy, which, as you may understand, we can't talk about freely. Really, there are lots of rules about the monarchy and what you can say, but the monarchy sits on top symbolically, of a hierarchy. under which you've got very big businesses that dominate the economy. You've got some of the most senior bureaucrats and judges in the system.

You've also got the military, which has. a very strong, powerful, traditional partnership with the monarchy, and together this somewhat hard to define establishment. is enormously influential, often in ways we can't see, and their influence pervades through Thai society. You know, a nod or an instruction can often get officials lower down. to follow their orders. So it's very hard to define, but it has meant that Thailand has tended to veer conservative in the past,

and that parties that have or entities that have tried to challenge, that have run up against all sorts of obstacles. I mean, Thitinan mentioned, then move the move forward. The predecessor of the People's Party being dissolved. The Constitutional Court has become this extraordinarily powerful conservative referee that can, at a stroke, dismiss prime ministers, dissolve parties, ban people. from politics for all sorts of what seem like quite trivial transactions.

But nearly all of these are on the anti-establishment side broadly. Do you think it's possible that voters kind of lost faith. in the democratic election, especially what happened last time. when the reformist party did well and yet wasn't allowed to govern? Do you think some people may have just kind of given up on that idea, Thitinan? Not giving up, but I think. that you know, voter turnout this time, for example, is just under 65%, as opposed to 75% in 2023, 74% in 2019.

So the momentum and the surge of these younger demographics has slowed. And maybe thinking twice given the numbers that we have. Also in 2023, I think the Move Forward (Party) at that time, they had a campaign platform based on amending, you know, really reforming the military, the monarchy, judiciary, really kind of recalibrating, rethinking, reordering society and politics and economy. It really caught traction, caught fire, and they had a lot of support.

They won the election. This time they cannot campaign. because they were prohibited by the Constitutional Court during the ban. and the dissolution from campaigning on legislative amendments. So they had to stick to kind of an anti-corruption platform. And, you know, that sounded more bland. I think that the leadership shifting from Pita Limjaroenrat in 2023 Move Forward, very charismatic, very cosmopolitan to Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut.

He's, you know, very young, he's very competent, capable, but doesn't have the same kind of mass appeal. I think a lot of the base also got upset with the party, People's Party for voting for Anutin to take office back in September. Um, you know, in exchange for, for writing a new constitution. I was going to say it's worth looking at just how well Anutin, Bhumjaithai has done. If you go back to the 2019 election, they were then. just a mid-sized, very provincially based party, about 50 seats.

You know, they could bargain to be part of a coalition. They don't have much of an ideology. They don't set an agenda. Nearly 200 seats now. They got around 70. Just over 70 at the last election. This is a huge surge, and it's worth making the point. This is being done partly, a very good campaigning and answering people's need. for simple bread and butter sort of programmes that can help them. when they're under economic distress. But also the biggest factor in Thai politics over the last 25 years.

has been Thaksin Shinawatra, Pheu Thai Party, the election machine that. for 20 years could not be beaten. It has fallen so far. It did much worse than expected in the last election, but actually came second place. This time. it lost half its seats, and most of those almost certainly went to Mr. Anutin's party and the other conservative parties. The conservative parties are feeding off the carcass of Pheu Thai,

the old populist electoral war machine. And that's really strengthened them. And I think that's made a very big difference. Yeah, I do definitely want to ask you about the economy. But speaking of Thaksin Shinawatra, I mean, what happens now to the Shinawatra family. because his sister and his daughter were also the prime ministers. There was a huge political dynasty. Is this kind of the end of Shinawatra family? I want both of your opinions. But, Jonathan, first. I would, you can never say never with Thaksin Shinawatra. He's an incredibly persistent man who, remember, spent a long time in exile.

he was ousted by a coup. He had multiple reverses. He had his assets sequestered. And yet he managed to remain extremely wealthy. and managed to get himself back from exile with what looked like. at the time, a solid grand deal with the conservative establishment. to let him govern or let his surrogates govern, provided he kind of went along with their concerns keeping the progressives out. But the speed with which that deal fell apart, you know,

with his first, his appointee as prime minister, Srettha Thavisin, being dismissed by the courts and then his daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, been caught out in mishandling the conflict with Cambodia. That's been enormously damaging to the Shinawatra brand. He clearly he never expected to go to prison. That was presumably part of the deal. He is now in prison. He does face other potential charges. I think at this stage, seeing how far he's fallen,

it may be that his party will be left alone. They may even at some point just join a conservative coalition. and be content with that. Thaksin Shinawatra is an interesting man. I mean,he's unlike other tycoons in Thailand who are content to be rich. and exercise their influence behind the scenes. He's always liked to be front and center. He's made a lot of misjudgments. Let's see if he's finally done. He's in his 70s now and his health isn't perfect, so it may may be his time has passed, I think.

Thitinan, I think you'll probably have a better sense of that than me. You know, he's kind of a deal maker. He thinks that he can make the next deal and get out of a difficult position. But this time, after getting out of jail, I mean, now he's in jail. Pheu Thai, to me, they're at an inflection point. I mean, so is People's Party. Pheu Thai party joined the coalition led Bhumjaithai. They've had a lot of bad blood between them - Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai. But if Pheu Thai joins the coalition, it will be very stable.

Rock solid coalition majority in Parliament. But that means that Pheu Thai will no longer be the potent force that it used to be. Thailand's border conflict with Cambodia was big news in 2025. How do you think that border conflict. with its neighbor play a role in this election? Well, clearly Anutin, who when he became prime minister. after the fall of Thaksin's daughter Paetongtarn, over that phone conversation, struck a very nationalistic tone. He gave complete free rein to the Thai army.

to run border operations as they saw fit, and when they restarted hostilities in December, it was all the army's show. and they pushed back very hard and they took territory from Cambodia, and during the campaign he was unashamed about it. And he was talking about he said, you know, nobody will push me around. I will stand up to Cambodia. I will defend Thai soil with my life. Anutin is an easygoing guy. He's not the kind of guy normally who strikes this kind of uncompromising posture,

but he used that really as a centerpiece of of his appeal. I don't know how much it played. I'll be interested in Thitinan's view on this. I know it would probably have played quite well. among border communities who suffered casualties. and destruction and damage from the Cambodian attacks. There were clashes with Cambodia in July and December last year, and after he became prime minister in September, he jumped on it and kind of outsourced, delegated to the military to have a free hand over border policy.

And he used nationalism, nationalism vis a vis Cambodia. as a campaign policy plank. And I think a lot of people felt something about that, that, you know, we had to stand up to Cambodia, so I think it resonated. In addition, he also used royalism being backed by the palace, by the powers that be and being seen. He even had an audience with His Majesty the King the night. before, the evening before the election last Saturday. And then I think he has these technocrats, a few technocrats, to market with as a kind of political marketing for the,

for the campaign. The Thai economy was booming in the late 80s. I think the economy was growing at like 13%, but it's been really stalling in recent years. So what happened? What went wrong here? Yeah. I mean, you got to go back to the 1980s when, the first flash of globalisation took place and it was mostly, Japanese, Hong Kong based Chinese companies looking. for cheaper places to manufacture. If you were looking at South East Asia,

then Thailand was probably your only choice. It was pretty stable, had a very low cost workforce. Indo-china was at war. Indonesia wasn't viable then. Philippines wasn't viable. Thailand really benefited from being one of the first countries to be used as. this global supply chain spread and growth was very, very rapid back then, right up until the financial crash in 1997, and it picked up pretty well after that as well. The time of Thaksin Shinawatra first administration, where he really benefited from this recovery.

But it sort of stalled. Since then. It hasn't, it's been stuck at. sort of upper middle income level now for about 20 years. It's unable to move on to the next logical stage of development, which should be knowledge-based, technology-based, you know, having more indigenous companies producing their own IP, for example, rather than just being somewhere that other companies make their own stuff. and then sell to other countries, which is what Thailand has really been.

And that's partly because of the political instability in the country, and the lack of long term policies of governments lasting long enough to do it. Yeah, I guess that's why it's quite surprising that they decided not to vote for change. But what about tourism sector. Wasn't it a huge driving force for the economic growth, Thitinan? Well, tourism is an easy fallback, but even tourism is declining. You know, once you become reliant on tourism, there are a lot of drawbacks. There's a drawback that, you know, you are relying on.

labour driven kind of hospitality. Tourism is a major foreign exchange earner. It's one-fifth of the Thai economy now. But what you want to do is to climb up the value chains. to the kind of industries that Jonathan was mentioning. You know, we missed this kind of innovation burst over the last 15 years, AI startups, because of this instability, this back and forth between all the yellow shirts, red shirts, the coups, the military coups, the judicial interventions and so on.

The cautionary tale here is that you cannot sit still. and have internal feuds and internal squabbling forever. It costs you. Thailand has lost competitiveness. A little bit puzzling that this time the vote went to to the conservative side. because, you know, they don't seem to have the kind of economic reforms. or structural changes the Thai economy needs. On the other hand, I think People's Party maybe too far reaching, too idealistic in what they're offering, not. concrete enough for people to fall back on if this keeps on.

We will see Thailand, you know, kind of subsiding to the lower end. It's already kind of a laggard in the in the region. It's been nicknamed recently as the sick man of Asia. That could stick unless something changes. It's interesting that reference to the sick man of Asia. So many Thais have come to me, it was an article in the Financial Times, quite stung by it. It used to be applied to the Philippines. when the Philippines really was not doing well economically. But also Thais really are looking closely at Vietnam now.

It's got a larger population, but in some ways a comparable country, a neighboring country that used to be much, much poorer. and at a much lower stage of development than Thailand. Vietnam is racing ahead. The ambitions of the current government in Vietnam are breathtaking, but they are focused on escaping the middle income trap. Building knowledge and tech based economy. You've both referenced the phrase the sick man of Asia, which was used in the Financial Times headline. If so, what will be the cure and do you think.

this new administration can offer it? I think first, that the politics has been a big drag on this instability, polarisation back and forth. And finally, now the establishment has to be very pleased. that his party now is finally be able to win the election. And now they have a political stability coalition majority, very strong one. And let's see what they what they will do. I mean. on the other side, you would think that Thailand would need to tackle. structural reforms of the economy. We know, you know,

it's not a rocket science. What Thailand needs to do about education, about upskilling and reskilling, about climbing up value chains and about tackling monopolies. We have an oligopoly, really. And that oligopoly is eating from the pie. The pie is not growing anymore. I'm thinking that, you know, this party is linked. to a lot of these monopolies. And what would they do with that? But there'll be a lot of public expectations. It could also be that things will get worse. The economic stagnation will become more salient and deepened and widened,

and that maybe people will learn during that process that they need real change. We'll see what they can come up with to jumpstart the economy, which obviously is very important to many of those voters. Thitinan and Jonathan, thank you so much for joining me on Asia Specific. Thank you. Thank you. Good to be here. Thank you very much. Good to be with you, Mariko. You've been watching Asia Specific from the BBC World Service with me, Mariko in Singapore. If you have any questions or thoughts on what we've covered in this episode.

or any other stories from the region, please leave us a comment below. You can also get in touch with us on email at AsiaSpecific@bbc.co.uk. and click like and subscribe so you never miss an episode. See you next time!