Is the US or China leading the autonomous vehicles race? - Asia Specific podcast, BBC World Service

We've been talking about driverless cars for many years, but they are increasingly becoming a reality, especially in China. That's right. Mariko. I've just returned from Beijing. I went in a robo taxi, and there are a number. of companies that are fully operational in several Chinese cities. And what's really striking is the pace of development. But it all started in the US, didn't it? So we're asking of the two great powers, who is winning this race?

As always, I'm Mariko in Singapore. and this is Asia Specific from the BBC World Service. Twice a week we bring you Asia Pacific stories. unpacked by those who know them best. Our Asia business correspondent, Suranjana Tewari just got back. from the Beijing Auto Show. Welcome back. Thanks for having me back. And so did Tu Le who is joining us as well. He's the Managing Director of Sino Auto Insights, and he also hosts a number of podcasts, China EVs and more, as well as at the wheel.

Welcome to the podcast. Thanks for having me. So, Suranjana, you've ridden on a driverless car in China. Super jealous, by the way. Can you just tell me how that happened? Was it at the auto show or was it just on the street? It was actually on the sidelines of the auto show. It was one of the companies that was exhibiting there. And yeah, it was quite the experience. I've never been in an autonomous vehicle and it was, uh, incredible.

You know, I went and got in, it was booked. and I just had to press one button on a touch screen when I was in there. And off we went, you know, and it was all programmed in advance and that kind of thing. And what really was striking was the speed at which it went at, you know, it didn't feel unsafe. It wasn't over the speed limit. It was just so calculated. The sensors allow it to recognize whether it be, you know,

other cars or pedestrians or bikes. And it made very definitive decisions, driving decisions totally safe. And, you know, for, for my journey at least. And yeah, it was, it was quite an experience. Well, you know, scared when it was going like quite fast. No, actually, I mean, once you get used to it, it just stops for traffic lights. And again, you know, the decision that it makes is really interesting.

because you can just imagine as a driver, you would be thinking about, you know, the traffic coming and the traffic light going and it's all done. It's essentially a smartphone on wheels. And that's what all of these companies seem to be working towards. It's about building the computer system. It's about building the software and then applying it in the real world. Yeah, I want to get to that. But Tu you also were in China. and I saw a video of you trying out one of those driverless cars as well.

You've been following this industry for many, many years. So can you just describe what the scene is like now? Yeah. So currently, many cars that are sold mostly electric or clean energy vehicles. in China, they either have an option to, to buy level two plus, which means intelligent driving. And, you know, one example of that is I borrowed a Li auto I6. with my co-host for China EVs and more.

And we drove it or more appropriately, it drove us from Beijing to Shanghai, about 1200km. And we used the system for over 90% of those kilometers. So it was quite impressive. You know, it still has challenges once it gets into the city, but, you know, highway driving, I think level two plus, there's a lot of companies in China that are offering. a pretty robust, service or feature. I think is really important at this stage to just say that level two plus,

for example, there's a lot of carmakers that are developing that kind. of technology in their cars, and those are for personal use. And the vehicle that I went in was a robo taxi, which is essentially something that you can hail. Like imagine an Uber without a driver. And that seems to be the direction that a lot of Chinese companies. are moving in, as well as alongside the driver assistance technology. But this fully autonomous means absolutely no driver,

no human intervention is required. And as you can imagine, that's got a lot of commercial opportunities. because it can be for the mass market. They can, you know, deploy as many robotaxis as they want. Once all the regulations are met, all the safety features are there. And so that seems to be a big part of the direction. that the industry is heading in. Yeah, I want to get to robotaxis, but I'm also very interested to find out about this level two, assuming that there are different levels. And I'm a paper driver.

I've had the driver's license ever since I was 16, never driven. because it would be way too dangerous for everyone in the in the world. But you know, we're talking about what would level four look like. Would that be fully autonomous car where I can literally sit there. and don't even touch anything in the car would just drive myself? What's the difference between different levels Tu? There's a there's a legal distinction when you talk about level two plus. and level four, level two plus, the driver is still responsible for the vehicle.

Anything that happens while you're driving the vehicle, it's still the responsibility of the driver. When you get to level three, level four, the responsibility moves on to the, the OEM of the vehicle. And so I think that's the, the largest... The original equipment manufacturers. So like Tesla has probably the most famous level two plus system, and it's called full self-driving or FSD.

And many of the Chinese automakers even use a technology partner like Huawei, or they build their own like Xpeng, like Nio. And it's become fairly, fairly common in China. And one of the big reasons that's the because BYD, which has a version called God's Eye, it is standard on about 20 of their 26 vehicles sold in China right now.

So you don't have to pay extra for it. And I think that'll help democratize this level two plus system. for a lot of Chinese consumers. We've been talking about L2, what's L1? I think L1 is cruise control, but I'll let the expert answer it. Right. Yeah. I think that's your paper license. I think I'm L minus ten. I think there's some simple adaptive cruise control, some of those functions that have come historically.

on vehicles for, you know, the last 20 years. I think some of those those functions, but at level two is, is where it kind of drives itself as you're supervising. So Tu, if I can ask you, I mean, when I was, you know, experiencing this, researching it, I was wondering, why do we need autonomous vehicles. in this way? Why do we need robo taxis? And why are these companies developing the technology in that direction? You know, if we can bring the cost down.

for a robo taxi ride so that it's as cheap. or maybe even cheaper than hailing an Uber with a normal driver, then it really helps broaden and folks that have limitations, you know, elderly folks, folks that are disabled, these robo taxis really allow them a lot more ability to travel. without causing too much trouble for other people. And I think that's, that's one of the biggest, biggest reasons that that I'd like to see it.

The biggest marketing tool that people are using, whether it's Waymo or Pony or Bee or Baidu, is that it saves lives. In the end, it'll save lives, save lives. because it should be better than a human driver. It's interesting you say that they're supposed to be those robotaxis. are supposed to be safer because I think, you know, some consumers still find it a bit scary, and I want to get to that. But before that too, I want to compare the Chinese situation.

to the US market, because you mentioned Waymo and Tesla, and I remember Elon Musk making big promises. about robotaxis being available, or at least accessible to half of US population by the end of last year. But now their ambitions seem to have scaled down. and Waymo is leading the race. So what's happening in America and why is that? So Waymo is the 800 pound gorilla. It has Alphabet as you know, its largest shareholder.

So there's a lot of capital behind Waymo. And they were one of the early early entries into the robotaxi space. They have pilots all over the world. And they're starting to launch into four season cities. So one of the challenges for robotaxis is. that there's not enough data for every single use case, meaning when it's snowing, the robotaxis are a little more challenged because of the sensors. and, and the slipperiness of the roads. And so what we, what we have seen is.

that these Waymo services and even in China, they get launched. into cities that are always sunny, you know, don't have four seasons. But Waymo is really, really trying to push that. They're going to be launching in Detroit, New York City. So cities that do have snow in the winter time. And I think that's kind of the next step for a lot of these companies. But there are still challenges. You know, I do they when I was in Beijing, they had to pause their pilot.

in Wuhan and in Beijing because there was an accident. where 100 of the robo taxis just stopped working. It's interesting you mentioned those tech glitches. I mean, how far does the technology have to get to, to get to get. to that level four autonomous car that you both have been talking about? Let's start with you, Sue. Well, I think the question is really like, why are these Chinese companies chasing that type of technology?

And one of the reasons is because the messaging that's coming down. from the government is to develop these types. of technologies, these future technologies. And they want the this kind of productive Growth to contribute. to the economy and China's success and expansion in the future going forward. And so the government has given a lot of support to these Chinese companies, not only to develop electric vehicles, which is something we hear about.

around the world, especially at the moment with the Iran war and. the price of oil going up, but also these electric vehicle manufacturers. that have been very successful over the past decade. They're also moving into things like robotics and autonomous vehicles. And that's partly because of the government messaging. It's also because of government subsidies, which allows them to manufacture these technologies very cheaply. And it also keeps up the pace of innovation, which is very fast.

And so they're able to chase those level four sort of autonomous vehicle. and other types of technology. And also, the government is also supporting these types of technologies. by developing the infrastructure that's required. So they're talking about smart roads. They're talking about, you know, smart traffic lights. Everything is going to be built into this ecosystem that's being built, whether it's a software or a hardware ecosystem,

but everything is heading in that direction. Would you say to that China is leading this race at the moment? Because I was reading one report, which seems to suggest that the U.S. still has the kind of innovative lead, but China is better at deploying, rolling them out. in larger number of cities. Who do you think is currently winning? I think that depends on how you're scoring it. Waymo by far has the highest valuation. They have the most robotaxis in the field. And they have a ton of reach, you know Pony and Weride.

They are starting to launch services outside. of China, the Middle East for instance. But their valuations are much lower. And having experienced Waymo And the Werides and the Pony's, ,not recently. last year, I would have to say the user experience for Waymo is, is much better than, than all the other competitors. And I feel like Waymo is really becoming a standard mode of transportation.

for California, for instance. And I think building more awareness, more trust through pilots in larger cities. in in the US and in Europe is going to be a huge advantage for them. Two is the difference between the US and China. For you a technology issue or is it the user experience? So Waymo is probably not going to commercialize in China and Pony,

and Weride might not commercialize in the United States. So it's going to be based on how they compete. against each other in other regions, whether it's Europe, whether it's Southeast Asia, you know, whether it's Latin America, you know, those are the kind of things you're looking for. How they do outside of their home markets. And only time will tell. But, you know, the other thing that's really important is that Waymo has a lot of reach.

A lot of these companies are now partnering with with Uber and Lyft. because the install base is, uh, large. So they automatically have access to millions of customers. that they wouldn't if they created their own app. And so I think through these partnerships, they're able to commercialize and broaden their scope. But, you know, I, I do feel that the Waymo service. on the technology side is a little bit better, but it's not leaps and bounds better.

That's one of the things that we ride, which is one. of the Chinese operators told us as well, is that one of the reasons that China is able to scale much faster. and develop this technology much faster is because of. the quality and the diversity of the data. I mean, in China, you have pedestrians, you have bikes, you have trucks, you have other vehicles. And so that's a really diverse sort of landscape for these robo taxis. to be able to learn from, because essentially it is a learning tool.

and it is going to get smarter over time the more data it collects. And so we were I told us at least that. in China, it's going to have, you know, a lot of data. It's going to have very diverse data. And therefore that allows them to scale the technology much faster. and, possibly a higher level of quality as well. I'm wondering about the different attitudes between China and the US,

because multiple surveys appear to suggest that the Chinese public are. more eager to ride on those robo taxis or drive without, you know, touching the wheels ways Americans don't feel as comfortable. Why do you think that is, too? I think there's a number of factors. You know, in China, the average buyer of a BMW and Mercedes is normally 20, 25 years younger than in in Europe or the United States. So, you know, a 30 year old or versus a 55 year old, they have different habits.

And I think that the younger Chinese population that embraces technology. is much more open to, number one, Chinese brands. And then, number two, the digital life is. a kind of part and parcel to their life. They didn't change from analog to digital. They've always had WeChat. They've always had, you know, Meituan, and that's how they live their life. Whereas we're changing habits in Europe and the United States.

when new, new technology needs to be adopted. And I think there's some of that hesitancy. In China, I felt I mean, firstly, remember, China is an authoritarian country and. therefore it's not so easy to sort of understand. exactly what the the sentiment is with regards to that. But my experience was that technology on the whole is fully embraced. And people at the auto show, for example,

they were bringing their families, they were bringing their kids to come. and see the new technology. It's really a family affair. And similarly, the Chinese companies are really not just developing. like a car or the hardware. They're developing an entire ecosystem. It's the software, it's the smartphone on wheels. that, you know, people can use in their daily lives. We saw one carmaker that, you know, you can control everything. in your house from the AC to the washing machine. from inside your car before you even get home, you know,

so it's this entire ecosystem that is totally integrated into daily life. And the people that we spoke to were very proud of, you know, how far these Chinese companies have have come. and how popular they've become around the world. And again, the messaging coming from the government means. that people are much more willing to embrace these new technologies. Now, as far as job losses go, there are going to be, you know, especially in a populous country like China, it is going to be a problem if people are starting to choose robotaxis.

and these drivers are not able to get jobs. China's already facing a slowdown. It's already facing an unemployment problem. This is kind of part and parcel to history. Advances in technology are always going to disrupt and displace folks. You know, but we can't stop progress. Uh, we it's lumpy, but we can't stop progress. The, the challenge with the United States is that. these laws will be a state by state thing.

And that's where the politics may come in, because there could be certain political organizations that don't want it, certain political organizations that do want it. So some of these things are always politicized in the United States, unfortunately. So my last question is, as I said, as a paper driver and. for many of our viewers and listeners outside of the US and China, we're all wondering, when is the day that we can actually get that robotaxi, but also the fully autonomous driverless car in our parking lot?

When would that be? And would that be Chinese or American? I know that's like a crystal ball question, but so first. Well, if you go and live in Beijing, you can do it. As I said, I ordered it, I drove in it. I mean, I rode in it and. we also saw a lot of autonomous deliveries, you know, for personal, personal deliveries. And I know that as two was mentioning that there are, they are being deployed for, you know, sort of mass package deliveries as well.

So I think, uh, this year there is going to be a lot of roll outs in global markets. You mentioned the UK. So I think it's very soon this year, maybe next year it will be there in even more markets. So I was able. To go to San Francisco for a conference, and that was sandwiched in. between going back home for a week and then heading out to China. And honestly, it just felt like I was seeing around corners, seeing the future. because when I was in San Francisco, there were Waymo's all over the place.

There were other robotaxi companies testing and gathering data like Nuro, like Turo, so or Zoox. And so we're seeing the future being made. in Silicon Valley, San Francisco, and in China. We're going to look back at this time, this last ten, 15 years. It's going to be in history, probably the most change. in the transportation space globally that we've ever seen.

you know, everything's moving towards technology. AI is going to be a part of that, which should accelerate some. of the adoption of these new technologies, whether it's level two plus for for your passenger vehicle or robo taxis. And I'm here for it. I really, really get excited when I think about this stuff. So, so maybe a while to wait, but it sounds like I'm going to get hold of a driverless car. before my retirement, which is very exciting.

Thank you so much for joining me too. And Sanjana, thank you. Thanks for having me. Thanks for having me. You've been watching Asia Specific from the BBC World Service with me, Mariko Oi in Singapore. If you have any questions or thoughts on what we covered in this episode. or any other stories from the region, please leave us a comment below. You can also get in touch with us on email. AsiaSpecific at bbc.co.uk and you know the drill. Click like and subscribe so you never miss an episode. See you next time.