How one Taiwan comment reignited a fiery China-Japan feud - Asia Specific podcast, BBC World Service

Almost a quarter of Japan's tourists are Chinese. So there has been some reaction on Twitter, for example, putting China's advisory, saying, you know, warning, warning Chinese tourists not to go to Japan. And then, you know, some Japanese saying, well, okay, if you don't want to come, don't come. It started with what some call an off the cuff remark. Others say it was deliberate. Japan's new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China were to use force against Taiwan, it could create a survival threatening situation for Japan.

That phrase isn't just rhetoric. Under Japanese law, it's the threshold for military action. Beijing's response? Furious. China has summoned the Japanese ambassador. over comments made by his prime minister on Taiwan. Chinese officials accused Tokyo of crossing a red line. and warned of serious consequences. One senior diplomat posted a chilling, violent message online.

It was later deleted, but the tone was clear. China has since written to the United Nations, summoned Japan's ambassador, suspended imports of Japanese seafood, issued travel warnings. and cancelled cultural exchanges. Japan, in turn, has advised its citizens in China to stay vigilant. Neither side seems ready to back down. This hostility taps into. a deep and bitter history between the two countries, from wartime memories to territorial disputes.

But why did a single statement ignite tensions now? And could this latest spat spiral into something far uglier? I'm Mariko Oi in Singapore, and this is the very first episode. of Asia Specific, our brand new podcast from the BBC World Service. Twice a week we bring you Asia Pacific stories. unpacked by those who know them best. And today I have the BBC's China correspondent, Laura Bicker in Beijing. and also the BBC's Japan correspondent, Shaimaa Khalil, in Tokyo.

Thank you both. So good to have you both on Asia Pacific. Let's start with how we got here. Exactly what did Ms. Takaichi say, Shaimaa? Because it wasn't like she was making a big speech about Taiwan, was she? She was basically answering a question in parliament. Exactly. She. She wasn't making a big speech, but an opposition lawmaker had mentioned Taiwan. He had a specific question to Ms. Takaichi, asking in regards to Taiwan,

what would constitute survival-threatening situation? Now, highlight that bit. "Survival-threatening situation" because that's key language. And then the Prime Minister Takaichi responded. with her own very specific language. If there are battleships and the use of force, she said, when it comes to Taiwan, no matter how you think about it, it could constitute a survival threatening situation. That is a legal term in Japanese security law, which essentially means that the armed forces, any armed attack.

on Japan's allies, on Japan, poses an existential threat to Japan, at which point Japan's SDF, Self-Defence Forces, can get involved. Yeah, I want to ask Laura about Beijing's reaction. But for viewers and listeners wondering why, hypothetically, Taiwan's invasion has anything to do with Japan's survival. is, I guess the thinking is if Taiwan again was hypothetically invaded, you know, it could be Okinawa next, because China has spoken. about Okinawa, Ryukyu, in the past.

But, Laura, in terms of Beijing's reaction, I mean, you know, we've seen violent protests before. I remember, you know, back in 2012, because my uncle was living in China and there were violent anti-Japan protests, demonstrators were burning Toyota cars and so on. But this language that this consulate general used, that's quite unprecedented, isn't it? It is unprecedented in those terms. And I think this is now the most serious diplomatic dispute. between Japan and China since that kind of 2010, 2012 dispute.

It is worth, you know, pointing out, that those protests on the street came... You know, they were organised protests in terms. of rising anti-Japanese sentiment. This is a year in which China has been commemorating the 80th anniversary. of the end of World War two. Um, what it sees is its victory over Imperial Japan. And all year there has been this rise in anti-Japanese sentiment.

We've seen it on state media. We've seen films commemorating the Nanjing Massacre, where 200 thousand unarmed civilians were, in the view of Chinese, murdered by Imperial Japanese Army's. So I think when it comes to the kind of rhetoric already within China, you've seen a rise of that sentiment. And then, of course, come these comments. Now we've seen a bit of a return. Of what outside of China, they call the wolf warrior.

This kind of aggressive rhetoric, that is used by both their politicians and their state media. against countries that have allegedly wronged China. And for the last five years, the wolf warrior has gone a wee bit silent. Until now, well and truly back, it would seem, you know, in terms of the kind of aggressive rhetoric. there's been saber rattling from the military. They've said we've honed our skills through rigorous training. How can we allow you to be so cocky, says the the army spokesperson.

Former state media commentators have also called Ms. Takaichi a witch. So it has become quite a heated rhetoric. Over the last week, there was a visit by a Japanese envoy. to try to sort things out, to try to ease tensions. But that, too, didn't seem to go very well. First of all, when it came to the Chinese side, they didn't see the Japanese envoy as being high enough. to be sent to sort out such what they see as a huge problem.

And second of all, one of the Chinese delegates, senior diplomat he wore what is known as a kind of suit. It's a colourless suit with five buttons, and it was worn by students in 1919. who tried, Chinese students who tried, to overcome Japanese imperialism. So it was seen as a sign of defiance on the Chinese side. I remember watching that meeting, and the Japanese media's reaction was. how, you know, the Chinese diplomat had his hands both in his pockets,

whereas a Japanese official was seen to be bowing. You know, maybe he was bowing towards the translator? You never know. But, you know, that picture really went viral. and some of the memes were quite, you know, hilarious, to be honest. But at the same time, I want to I want to ask how locals feel. about this because, you know, reading the Japanese public's reaction. You know, when there were those protests. in 2012, it was because of a territorial dispute. So I think, you know, people could kind of understand that.

Whereas this comment by Ms Takaichi, you know, I can see a lot of people going, what did she say that's so wrong, you know, because the language is so specific and even, you know, not many people. in Japan, you know, were aware that what she said was such a big deal. I think from the Japanese side, if you look at if you at the reaction, which I'm sure you've been, you've been following the language that the experts use, the reaction from people on the streets is not as angry as. what Laura has been saying on the Chinese side.

I think from, from where I'm sitting, it's more about watching what's going on, waiting for the ramifications, but also asking the question, what was it that was so outrageous? Because again, remember, yes, Tokyo refused to retract, but she did promise to be more careful. In a way. She was saying, look, you know this. I shouldn't have said it the way I've said it, but, you know, this is our stance, right? Do you think? But do you think the fact that she's not withdrawing that comment, is it kind of almost benefiting her because politically, you know,

in terms of the travel advisory that Beijing gave, one could argue. that, a lot of, there were a lot of concerns about over-tourism in Japan. And, you know, some people kind of cheering the fact. that maybe there are fewer tourists. There are a couple of things here. I think definitely her standing. her ground does serve her well with her domestic audience, with her more conservative constituents, that's for sure. But I also think one of the things that I picked up. when I was looking at Twitter reaction,

is that comment on tourism? Yes. Of course, you know, tourist tourism operators are concerned. You know, we've spoken, for example, to a manager of a tea house, a tea ceremony, with many people, you know, with hundreds and hundreds of tourists that are coming. And she said that they've already had cancellations from Chinese tourists. But as you say, Japan has been concerned. with over-tourism for the past couple of years. In 2024, it's had record numbers of tourists.

And remember, almost a quarter of Japan's tourists are Chinese. So there has been some reaction on Twitter, for example, putting China's advisory, saying, you know, warning, warning Chinese tourists not to go to Japan. And then, you know, some Japanese saying, well, okay, if you don't want to come, don't come. You know, it's fine. Laura, I want to ask you about that anti-Japan sentiment that you were talking about earlier, because I think you talked about those anti-japan education dramas,

movies that even young children today continue to watch. I mean, how do locals feel about this latest development? You know, do they do they really think that this one comment from. Ms Takaichi is such a huge deal that, you know, that could. actually the tensions could actually get so much worse again. When it comes to people on the ground. I mean, most people here are watching the news or seeing state media. They will just repeat state media lines. But the reason Beijing has acted. in this way is a carefully calibrated message.

This message is not just for Tokyo. This message is for all, perhaps the US. and its allies when it comes to this language on Taiwan. This is a message that this issue is a red line that. China does not want you to cross. And if you do cross it, there will be consequences. I think there's another bigger point at play here. When we talk about Ms Takaichi, there is a concern, I would imagine, here in Beijing about defence spending. Now, the US is encouraging its allies to spend more on defence,

and Beijing may be worried about the militarisation of Asia, of this region and in particular, Japan, given the history that it has with Japan. And therefore, you know, if you're looking at a Taiwan issue and. if you're looking at the new a month old prime minister of Japan saying. that any kind of theoretical attack. on Taiwan, a territory that China believes is its own, uh,

any theoretical attack on Taiwan, would constitute a military response. They see this as a particular threat. They've even raised it with the United Nations. Indeed, it's kind of a new Japan under Sanae Takaichi, isn't it? I want to ask you both about where could this go next? Because, you know, Laura, you were talking about anti-Japan sentiment. And yes, you know, their decades of. bitter shared history, especially from the second World War. But at the same time, you know, one could argue.

that there's almost like an anti-Japan sentiment that's always there. that Beijing could use when, you know, they have domestic issues. You know, it's something that, you know, if they wanted to get rid of anti-Japan sentiment, you know, if they want to improve relations if they wanted something more. out of Tokyo, you know. Could they have done something else? Where do you think this could go next? Because we keep seeing these tensions flaring up over and over. I think the problem now is that perhaps China has said already.

that unless Ms Takaichi retracts her comments, there will be further countermeasures. We've yet to see what they may entail. You've already got an urging of tourists not to go. Now, even if you're a young person who's not going. on these tour groups, and it has to be mentioned, it's just tour groups really that are being canceled. Even if you are a young person who's booked a visit to Japan. I mean, we spoke to some young people last week. One of the things they were telling us is one of the reasons.

why they might think again about going is actually they'd be worried. about their parents' reaction because it's that generation. that older generation that is worried about Japan and. about, you know, what the, what people might think if they go to Japan. So, you know, if you go you're certainly maybe not... I spoke. to a few people that say even if we go, we're not going to put it. on our social media. So where does it go from here? I don't think things are going to get better any time soon. And I think that this has been a gift to Beijing almost, Sanae Takaichi's comments.

Because not only have they used it to warn Japan to say that this is. a red line that Japan shouldn't cross, especially with the Prime Minister, that they're worried about a kind of a China hawk, someone who is friendly to Taiwan, but and also a frequent visitor. to the Yasukuni Shrine where war criminals are buried. That really angers China. But also, I think it's Tokyo. This is the US's key ally in the region after, you know, a very friendly and rather successful Donald Trump visit to Japan.

So I think in a way that has worked well in terms of in terms. of Beijing framing this as something that a line that shouldn't be crossed. And so I in a way, you're kind of in this situation. where both sides are pushing, but both sides also know that there are key ties as well. The fact that these are key trading partners. China is Japan's largest trading partner.

And we're talking about trillions of yen, billions of dollars coming back and forth. You're talking about powerhouse auto powerhouses like Nissan, Honda. and Toyota all having big facilities in China. You're talking about trade when it comes to semiconductors and rare earths. All of these are really crucial relationships that. both sides will want to maintain. Yeah. And that reminds me, you know, in 2012 when there were those violent protests and, you know, I actually interviewed my uncle about it and, you know, he said,

yeah, it was a bit scary, but it was actually business as usual behind. When it comes to business. Yeah, business is business as usual, isn't it? Yeah, exactly. I mean, it's interesting. you said some comments may have been a gift to Beijing, but also the fact that, you know, the US and others have. kind of expressed support for Japan in light of all these, reaction from Beijing. And I was looking at this survey where almost half I think it was like.

45% of the Japanese public now support the use of Self-Defence Force. to, you know, if there was an invasion of Taiwan, which I thought was quite astonishing because, you know, the LDP, the ruling party, has been trying to boost defence spending, possibly even change that pacifist constitution. And the public were always reluctant. Yeah, it was always yeah, the public was always resistant. The public was always wary of of hiking up defence spending because it meant.

that it was veering away from its pacifist constitution. But I think the Japanese public is very aware. of the fact that this is a very different neighborhood right now. This is a much more hostile Asia Pacific. It is a much more unstable Asia-Pacific. and Japan needs to be able to defend itself. Japan needs to be able to deploy its Self-Defence Forces in an effective way. And so with Sanae Takaichi making these comments again, standing her ground,

I think that has polled well with a lot of people here. And as you say, because of what China did, because of China's reaction, that has instantly then brought more support. from the United States to Japan. I think when it comes to what would constitute making it worse? When I spoke to some analysts, the thing that would make it a lot worse. would be if China banned, once again banned exports of rare earths to Japan. Now, the reason why many people think that that might not happen is.

because obviously, it might influence the deal. that they already have on the table with the United States. But in terms of being a gift to Beijing, I think also there are issues for Beijing in this. It had put away its wolf warrior teeth for the last five years. President Xi has been trying to appeal to other countries. as China looks like the new emerging global leader. And then I think it's this comment from the US ambassador to Tokyo. Um, he said, oh, the mask has slipped.

Um, it's time for Beijing to behave like the good neighbour. it talks repeatedly about being, but fails repeatedly to become. And I think when it comes to that comment, that might touch. a little bit of a nerve for other countries who are watching this. Laura, just just a quick question on that. Do you actually think, because I know that you were there covering APEC in South Korea? And again, there were these optics of Xi Jinping being, you know, assuming this leadership position in.

in the region, which which was quite, you know, quite something to watch. Do you think that this week. or this, these past couple of weeks the China stance towards Japan. Do you think that it might scare people off? I'm not sure it'll scare people off. It'll certainly, you know, I think it's a reminder of who you're dealing with. that, you know, that China has it's moments. where and its red lines and Taiwan for them is a red line.

And it's a reminder also to the world of China's ambitions. You know, China has certainly, President Xi has vowed to reunite China with. with Taiwan, the self-governing island and by force, if necessary. And it's a reminder of that whether or not there are more countermeasures, whether or not China is going to sit there and go, right, okay, you have to retract these comments. or we are going to take more countermeasures or whether. or not it simmers away and then just, levels off, we'll have to see.

But it may also depend on what Ms Takaichi does, if she visits... I was yeah, I was just going to say she visits? Yeah. The shrine then I think that would provoke. Exactly. Huge response here in China. And I think that will be the moment where it would be very difficult. for these two countries to walk back from, you know, this diplomatic spat. I think right now it's a row. It's a spat. I think if she visits the shrine, it becomes something huge.

And it becomes something concrete as well, doesn't it? Because then it says because. up until now she could say, look, I've answered a question. This was a question in Parliament. I'm the prime minister. I'm looking at Japanese law, Japanese defence law. And I answered, you know, in a fully transparent way. Maybe I shouldn't have said what I said, the way I said it, I'm not going to retract it, but I'll be careful next time. But if she visits the Yasukuni Shrine, something that China has been dead.

against and something that China has raised with Japan. when the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe did visit. all those years back when he was still in power. Her mentor, of course, if she does that, I think that is a more conscious move. Knowing that this would anger Beijing. I would be very surprised if she does that. She's been quite careful, hasn't she?

She hasn't really committed one way or the other. because she doesn't want to upset her supporters by ruling it out either. A very tricky situation that we'll continue to watch what happens next. Thank you so much, Laura Bicker in Beijing and Shaimaa Khalil in Tokyo. You've been watching Asia Specific from the BBC World Service. with me, Mariko in Singapore. If you have any questions or thoughts on what we've covered in this episode. or any other stories from this region, please leave us a comment below.

and click like and subscribe so you'll never miss an episode. But for now, thank you so much for watching and see you next time!