Could Japan be hit by another massive earthquake? - Asia Specific podcast, BBC World Service

A recent magnitude 7.7 earthquake in Japan. has many people there thinking once again about the big one. A once in a century earthquake, and Derek, this latest one really raised alarm. Yeah it did. It was measured at 7.7. Just to put things in context, the one at, the big earthquake. in 2011 was measured at 9. Um, thankfully this one didn't cause as much damage, but it did prompt mass evacuations and tsunami warnings. across the north eastern coast of Japan. And I have to say, having grown up in Japan,

I remember being warned about this megaquake ever since I was a child. So today we're asking how prepared Japan actually is and what it's like. to live in a country that experiences 1,500 earthquakes each year on average. As always, I'm Mariko in Singapore. and this is Asia Specific, the podcast that brings you Asia Pacific stories. with people who know them inside out.

and Derek Cai is from our podcast team. Welcome. Thank you, thank you. Happy to be here. So you're from our podcast team, but also you used to live in Japan. What was it like because 7.7 magnitude that's quite large even. for people who live in Japan who experience earthquakes quite frequently. Yeah, 7.7 sounds really big. Um, it was measured at 7.5 initially. And then they moved it up to 7.7. But initially there were like tsunami warnings of three metres,

up to three metres high, which is relatively high. It's like double my height. I think that caught my attention. because that kind of reminded me of that big wave that we saw in 2011. Yeah. But ultimately, I think the highest wave that was measured was at. 80cm, which is not that high. Um, but it did prompt mass evacuations, like I said. And tsunami warnings were across the most of the north eastern coast of Japan. And it did cause a bit of infrastructure damage. Bullet trains were affected and some homes were left without power,

but no deaths, thankfully. But still, officials are now warning that. in the next week, there could be aftershocks and another quake. that could cause a lot more damage or cause more massive waves. Yeah, the damage was somewhat limited, I guess, because Japan is so well prepared and learned quite a lot of lessons. from previous earthquakes, like the one that you mentioned in 2011. That's right. I mean, I moved to Japan when I was, in 2012, 2013. So right after the quake. And in my, I,

because I come from Singapore, I had never experienced earthquakes before. And in my first week there, I already experienced the first earthquake. I was shocked, and then, I was quite scared at first. And in my first three months living there, I experienced like five. So I got quite used to it. I was going to ask you though, because you covered the 2011 earthquake. What's the, what was the difference in preparedness and urgency, Um, post 2011 earthquake? I think even before the 2011 earthquake, the buildings were built to, you know,

survive those shocks as much as possible. Yeah. I read somewhere where, um, tell me if it's true, the buildings were made to sway with the quake. Yeah. Right. So if it actually swings quite violently, it's actually good news because it's just absorbing all the shock. But I think what changed the most, what I personally noticed is. how Japanese media broadcasts it. and basically alert people to basically get out of their house.

Because in 2011, some people were seen filming the tsunami. because they didn't think that it would get to them so quickly. So the way even Japan's public broadcaster NHK broadcasted, the language. sounds quite sharp and almost impolite in normal circumstances. But just to alert people how serious that is. And also, of course, back then, I mean, smartphones were around, but it wasn't as widespread. Whereas today you get that really large, large alarm going,

the earthquake is about to hit. So I remember hearing those, the alarms on my phones, my two phones, when I was living there. It scared me at first. That scared me more than the earthquake actually, because they were so loud, right? Do you, so do you think the sense of urgency increased after 2011? And that probably helped this time around? I think so, absolutely. I think people realising because I think everyone I think it's fair to say, still remembers that picture of that large tsunami.

So the moment you hear tsunami, you kind of remember that and start running to higher grounds. So I think definitely there's a lot of lessons that were learned from that. Thank you so much, Derek. Of course, anytime. I now have a Rupert Wingfield-Hayes, who was. a BBC Japan correspondent for more than ten years. And he and I covered that 2011 earthquake together. Welcome, Rupert. Firstly, I mean, it feels like I've been warned about this mega quake. ever since I was a child, at school.

You have evacuation drills, training and so on. Can you explain what exactly this megaquake that people are worried about? Yeah, the big one that Japan has been worrying about for decades, really. I mean, since first I came to Japan in the 1990s, they were already talking about the Nankai Trough. and the fact that there is this fault line or series of fault lines. along the south east coast of Japan that have a lot of tension. in them, because there are three plates that meet there.

There is the Pacific plate, there is the Philippine plate, and then there is the Eurasian plate. And they all meet just to the south of Tokyo, about 100km south of Tokyo. And there's a lot of tension in that fault area. And it usually there is a big quake there, a very large quake there every 80 to 100 years. And the last time there was a quake down there was during the Second World War. There were two very large quakes during the Second World War,

but there's been nothing there since. And so there is you know, there's a lot of senses, Japan has the most advanced seismic monitoring systems in the world. And they are monitoring that, that fault. And they know there's a lot of tension in that fault. And so they know at some stage that fault is going to slip. And when it does, it could cause what they call a mega quake. And a mega quake is just really a very, very large earthquake, uh, 8.0 on the Richter scale or more. And that it could also cause it's a mega thrust. It's, it's a,

it's a thrust fault, which means one plate is going under the other plate. And when those go, they can cause uplift and trigger very large tsunamis. And so it's the sort of the worst case scenario, a very large quake, followed by a big slip that causes the ocean floor to move and generate. a large tsunami that can then crash on shore and cause massive destruction. So that's the sort of scenario that they're really worried about. And they know, you know, the authorities know it will come.

at some stage, but they don't know when. And I guess the official warning was that it could result in 300,000 deaths. and trillions of dollars in economic damage if that mega quake was to hit. But of course, Japan does experience quite a lot of earthquakes, I think about 1,500 earthquakes each year. Of course, we're talking about much smaller ones, but I was reading how this mega quake it could actually shake vertically.

instead of horizontally, and that could actually cause even bigger damage. than what we have witnessed in the past. Yeah. I mean, you know, you, you grew up here, you know, you know, how varied these earthquakes are. Um, you know, I was here, I wasn't here, I was here shortly after the 2011 earthquake. And what astonished me when I came here in the aftermath of the earthquake. in 2011 was which was a 9.0, right? I think one of the four most biggest earthquakes ever recorded.

Um, is that most of the buildings in the cities up the coast of Japan. were still standing. They weren't damaged at all. And that's because even though it was a really large earthquake, it hadn't caused the sort of shaking that generates really destructive waves for buildings. Um, and whereas in Kobe, back in the 1990s, there was an earthquake right. underneath Kobe City, which was a much smaller earthquake, but it did massive destruction to infrastructure. because of the, the shape of the, of the seismic waves that hit.

the city and the type of energy that was released. Japan builds its buildings to withstand, I think it's a seven and a half earthquake without major damage. That's the building standards that now stand. But of course, there are tons and tons of old buildings in Japan. that are not built to those standards. The house I'm sitting in right now, it was built in the 1970s. It's not up to that sort of standard. So, you know, there is a real concern. that a mega quake would still cause a lot of destruction to infrastructure, to buildings, uh, particularly if it hits along,

you know, the Nankai Trough, which is a very heavily populated area, right? The Nankai Trough stretches from south of Tokyo. all the way to Kyushu along that coast. We're going back centuries, but back in 1707, when an earthquake hit the Nankai Trough area, it was followed by the eruption of Mount Fuji. And that's something that the authorities are worried. about and have actually been warning about. I remember seeing an article or video on NHK, Japan's public broadcaster,

which really kind of raised the alarm bell of, you know, are we expecting this eruption of Mount Fuji? Well, yes, you know, this is something I didn't know much about. until I started reading about that, that particular 1707 earthquake, uh, sorry, the 1707 Fuji eruption, that it was actually preceded by. two large earthquakes, one that same year and one a few years before. And that even though the of course, there wasn't the sort of science. there is today, that it is considered that those two things are associated. So there was a very large earthquake, uh,

in 1703 and another in 1707, and then Mount Fuji erupted, and it spread ash right across the Tokyo region. So right across what's called the Kanto area. If you look on, go on Wikipedia and look. Look up Mount Fuji. It is listed as an active stratovolcano, so it's not a dormant or extinct volcano. It is considered an active volcano, and at some time it is considered. It will. It will erupt again. For viewers and listeners who aren't in Japan.

How do locals feel about it in your view? Because I know that my friends in Singapore, every time we go back to Japan for a holiday, our children, we're all quite kind of worried about it because we've left that day to day. kind of getting used to almost very regular earthquakes living in Japan. But in terms of locals, I remember speaking. to a cameraman that we both work with and he was like, oh, well, you know, the chances of me dying from an earthquake. is probably smaller than a car crash.

And I was quite surprised by that reaction. What do you think the majority of you know how locals feel about this? Well, I'll tell you what my experience is. And then and then maybe you can tell me yours. Because, you know, I moved to Japan in the year after the 2011 earthquake, when we were still getting a lot of aftershocks and some of them quite big. I mean, up to seven and more on the Richter scale. And, you know, that's enough to really shake the building. You're sleeping in quite violently. And for the first year or two, I, I mean, I would jump out of bed,

I would literally jump out of bed as soon as the building started shaking. And it was very nerve wracking. And, uh, you know, my wife at the time would be fast asleep. and she, it didn't seem to bother her at all. And then the longer I lived in Japan, I just started sleeping through them. And it's funny how human beings adjust. to something that they constantly live with. And I think in the aftermath of 2011, a lot of people were shaken badly because it was such a huge earthquake.

But then, you know, human beings are highly adaptable. And I've been surprised at how used to I have got to it. I think I was probably an exception. I was a very worried child. I was probably a rare one, but most of my friends, family members, they don't. They don't seem to worry about it too much. But, you know, nonetheless, the possible impact of this mega-quake, if it was to hit the country, it is enormous. We keep getting all these warnings. You get an alert as soon as an earthquake hits.

One of the cities in Japan on your mobile phone. But scientifically, can you actually predict an earthquake since 2011? Actually, Japan has invested in the world's largest tsunami, earthquake and tsunami warning system, and that is on the floor of the ocean. And so now actually, it was just finished last year and has gone online. So now Japan has a system that stretches right along the coast,

on the ocean floor, and it's connected by fiber optic cables to, you know, to the to the headquarters, where it should mean that if there is a major earthquake and tsunami. that people will get a 22nd warning of the first shaking. and up to 20 minutes of warning to escape from a tsunami. So that's considered a huge improvement, that the idea is that we can't say. exactly where and when the next big one will come, because we've got it wrong every time in the past.

Um, for example, no one predicted the 2011 quake, uh, when it, when it hit all the tsunami that came with it. But if a big one strikes, people will get a warning. and they'll be able to get under a table, get out of their house, get to high land if there's a tsunami warning. And that's what will save lives. Yeah, indeed. You've talked about some of the lessons. that people have learned from that 2011 earthquake. And I guess it's important to mention that it was actually the tsunami. that killed most of the most of the people, not the earthquake.

And I guess a lot of people weren't exactly realizing. how high that tsunami wave could hit. And there were some of them were filming on their phone and so on and so on. How prepared do you think the Japanese public is? Because I think compared to other countries like Singapore, you know, no one sleeps with a possible bag that you would just grab. and go as soon as the earthquake hit, that kind of stuff. How prepared are people in Japan for this possible mega quake,

even if they weren't living every day worrying about it? I think on a basic level of education, Japan is really good, actually. Young. You know, as you probably know from your school days, young children. are taught in school in Japan what to do if an earthquake strikes. Get under your desk, get under a table, have, you know, get into a into a doorway, stay away from the windows. People know these things. And it's a sort of basic part of education here. And I think the 2011 quake really did teach people, if there's a tsunami warning, get to high ground because that's what's going to save your life.

However, you know, having said all that, we've had a couple of tsunami warnings in the last year or two here. where they thought there was going to be potentially a damaging tsunami. The alarms went off, the warnings were sent out. People were told to leave the coast and then nothing happened. Nothing really arrived. So again, you sort of get that that. cry wolf effect that people just get, you know, after over time people, I mean, people up in north east Japan, in the Sanriku coast, which was hit in 2011,

they knew there was a tsunami that was a tsunami coast. They even had stones marking where. the last tsunami, the destructive tsunamis of the 1930s, and another in the 18, the 1890s, I think, had come up the hillside and. people were told not to build houses below that line, and yet they went ahead and built below the line because it's convenient. It's close to the port. It's close to convenient places where you can get to your boat to go fishing. And so people had sort of become complacent. Indeed. And I think one big difference that I've personally noticed since.

that 2011 earthquake and tsunami is how Japanese TV stations report about them. You know, they tend to be very polite, usually very respectful language explaining, telling the news. And as soon as the tsunami hit, suddenly it goes into get out of your house. That kind of language, which is really, really unusual. You don't hear that at all in daily life in Japan. Do you think any other lessons that people or the government have learned.

from not just the 2011 earthquake, but, you know, Kobe and others? Well, every time Japan is hit by a big earthquake, there is. a big learning lesson. So, you know, building codes change every time. So there are building codes that came in in the 1980s after a big earthquake. Then the big one, the Kobe earthquake, which did a huge amount of destruction. and was really not expected to, to, to do so much damage to Kobe City. with, you know, highway overpasses coming down. and failing when they were not supposed to fail, building regulations were updated again.

And now all new buildings in Japan are seismically isolated. They have to be by law. I think after 2011, there's been this, like I said, there's been this massive investment in. an early warning system, which is now coming online. and is the most advanced warning system in the world. And that will not only warn of of the next earthquake. It actually is going to allow Japanese scientists and scientists. from around the world, seismologists from around the world, to study in real time how the, the, um, the faults along the Japanese coast in the Nankai Trough.

And, you know, right along these, these faults that Japan sits on, how they move and the science will improve. I remember that Kobe earthquake. because my late grandparents were living in Osaka, and they were so shocked to have been hit by an earthquake. because I think many people living in that Osaka Kansai area, they don't really think that a big earthquake hits their area. And I guess that kind of explains why some lawmakers were even talking.

about possibly not moving the capital city from Tokyo to Osaka, but maybe prepare Osaka as the second capital city. So if the mega quake was to hit Tokyo, the country wouldn't stop functioning. Japan lives in a very modern transport and information environment, where food is delivered around the country overnight, and there's a sort. of just in time way that that everything is delivered at night in Japan. And within two days there was no food,

there was the convenience stores were empty. The supermarkets were empty. There was there was petrol stations were out of petrol. And so, you know, the thought that roughly, I think. a fifth of Japan's population and about a third. of Japan's economy is concentrated in Tokyo, means that if if if the Tokyo area is hit by a very large quake, um, it will paralyze, potentially paralyze the country. And, and I think those lawmakers in Osaka have their own reasons for, for wanting investment in their region.

But it you know, it's not without validity. that Japan needs potentially does need a backup plan for. where's the government going to move if Tokyo is paralyzed? Because in 2011, everything was everything from Tokyo to Sendai. You couldn't you couldn't move. The roads were blocked. The train lines were down. The internet was jammed. Mobile phone systems didn't work. You know, nothing was moving around the country for days. And it was really striking how sort of thin the veneer. of of everything we're used to. We're used to the internet, we're used to our mobile phones.

We're used to food being in the convenience store 24 hours a day. And suddenly that none of that was working. I mean, it got back pretty quickly, but there were four. or five days there where everything just ground to a halt. And if that happens to Tokyo, yeah, it's a really, really big issue. Thank you so much for sharing your insights, Rupert, a former Japan correspondent for the BBC. Thanks a lot. Lovely to see you. You've been watching Asia Specific from the BBC World Service. with me, Mariko Oi in Singapore. If you have any questions or thoughts on what we covered in this episode.

or any other stories from the region, please leave us a comment below. You can also get in touch with us on email, AsiaSpecific@bbc.co.uk. and click like and subscribe so you never miss an episode. See you next time.