China's extraordinary purge of military leaders - Asia Specific podcast, BBC World Service

When it comes to the PLA high command, I will say that many of the officers are probably living in fear. The group is probably highly atomised. People are afraid to make connections with each other, to be seen together for fear of being seen as some kind of cabal. China has one of the biggest militaries in the world, and it likes to show off its growing strength. Just recently, we looked at how the People's Liberation Army often holds. large scale military drills around Taiwan,

pledging one day to take control of the island. But at the very top of the chain of command, things are looking shakier. The country's biggest military purge in half a century is underway, with leader Xi Jinping ordering an investigation. into his top general. In the last few years, five out of six military leaders have been removed. from China's supreme command body. So what's going on? I'm Mariko in Singapore and this is Asia Specific from the BBC World Service.

Twice a week we bring you Asia Pacific stories. unpacked by those who know them best. And today I have our China correspondent, Laura Bicker. I also have Yang Zi, a researcher. at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University. He's a specialist in Chinese military. Welcome both to Asia Specific. Laura, let's start with you. Because as always, since that announcement of the latest purge, there have been many rumours.

on social media, not many of them verifiable. Some of them sound quite unbelievable, including things like a coup attempt. You're based in Beijing. Can you first tell our audience. what kind of access you get to the People's Liberation Army? You know, compared to other countries where you've been based before, where you may have had coffee with military generals. I think one of the things you've got to understand about being.

in Beijing is that it's so opaque. And one of the reasons why you're seeing so much spread. across social media is because people really do not know what is going on. And when you have that vacuum of information, you've basically got people trying to fill it with so much speculation. What happens here is there are actually regular briefings. by the Defense Ministry, but they are scripted. They are preplanned. Everything is choreographed. It's not like in Washington, for instance,

where we have back briefings. We have, you know, in the corridors, you're able to have small conversations. You are able to go for a coffee, as you've mentioned, with someone. and get an idea of exactly what might be going on behind the scenes? That does not happen in Beijing, not just with the military, but with any other aspect of the party. or any other aspect of anything that works here. So one of the things, Mariko, I wanted to tell you about what happened on Saturday. when we heard that the senior general was being purged.

And I have to say that they say he's under investigation, but generally when it comes to these, these investigations, few, if any Chinese officials placed publicly. under investigation are later declared innocent. But one of the things I did do, and this is where we do get information, is go through what people are saying. And I read PLA daily editorial, and here are some of the words that were used. The senior cadre of the party seriously betrayed the trust.

and heavy responsibility entrusted to them, seriously trampled upon and undermined the CMC chairman, seriously fueled political and corruption issues that affect. the party's absolute leadership over the military, and endangered the party's ruling foundation. I mean, see the number of times. that they've used the word seriously and the charges there. I think what this does suggest, really heavily suggest, is that these generals were undermining President Xi's authority.

And that is certainly amongst the speculation, is what we're hearing most of all. Let's talk about Zhang Youxia, because there have been a number of purges, and yet his purge seems to have really caught many experts off gaurd. and has practically put the internet abuzz. So who exactly is he and why is this such a big deal, Laura? So he is the most senior general that's ever been investigated.

He is second in command under President Xi. and as vice chairman of the Central Military Commission. So that is the supreme command body, that is the body that oversees all of the military. He has long been seen as one of President Xi's allies. So that's one of the reasons why it's so, so shocking. Now, he hasn't been seen in public since around, I think, 20th of November last year. He held talks with Russia's defence minister. in Moscow around then and he hasn't been seen.

So the rumors were already spreading. And then, of course, Saturday we got the announcement. I think the fact that this particular general, with. this long relationship with Xi Jinping is attracting a lot of attention. And that's why it's so shocking in many, many respects. Zi, as Laura said, this is yet another downfall. There are quite a few images and memes going around online.

showing how significant these purges have been. I want to show this image from 2022, which basically shows the top military leaders back then, and this is how many of them are still in the job. So aside from Zhang and Liu, the latest purges, can you just tell us what happened to the other senior leaders? Sure. So this iteration of the CMC first came into power in 2022. A year later, Defense Minister Li Shangfu,

also a member of the CMC, was purged. And then in 2024, late in the year of 2024, Miao Hua, who is also a CMC member. and the head of the political work department, also disappeared. He was confirmed to be purged a year later. along with the CMC vice chairman He Weidong. So what we've seen so far is that CMC members have been dropping left. and right, and the latest purge only accelerated the process.

There is a difference, though, isn't there, that the previous purges. were almost always explained as a fight against corruption? This time it's different. Yes. So in the initial Ministry of National Defense statement. on Saturday, it did not mention corruption at all. It mentioned about violation of discipline and law and that's it. And but on the, in the PLA daily editorial, it talked about mostly about Zhang Youxia or.

Liu Zhenli chipping away at the authority of the CMC chairman. So, you know, we are looking from the outside. We think this might have to do more to do with struggle for power, struggle over division of authority than corruption. I think this isn't just about the military. Remember, President Xi's, corruption drive is basically one. of the central pillars of his leadership. He he started it when he came to power back in 2012. It's kind of the centerpiece of his political agenda.

He wants to, as he keeps telling the public. to root out corruption, root out graft. But part of it is also about consolidating power right. at the heart of the Chinese Communist Party. I want to ask you about this report that we saw. that Zhang possibly leaked information. about the country's nuclear weapons program to the United States. Some experts seem to really question the credibility of the report.

What do you make of that report? If these accusations are true, it's definitely a bombshell in politics. I think we can look at it from different angles. Let's assume it's true. Then I would say. that the we really do not have to worry about PLA capabilities for a while, because if foreign intelligence agencies can make the vice chairman. of the highest national defense decision making organ an asset,

then their network is probably all over the PLA. and not just the PLA, but also the state and party. But, you know, if we look at it from a different angle, we have to know that in these kind of power struggles, usually the attacker will accuse their victims of having. certain links with foreign powers or nefarious foreign powers. If we look into history, when Stalin was purging the Red Army, he accused his the victims, victims of being spies for Japan,

spies for Germany, spies for the British. So we have to also be reminded that, you know, right now the official narrative is dominating the discussion, and we will never hear the story from Zhang and Liu side. So, you know, we just have to take certain things with a grain of salt. Indeed. I would have thought Zhang would have had a lot of supporters as well, given how they could actually fight back against this purge.

What do you think this latest purge say about Xi Jinping's, I guess, consolidation of power? Does it show. that he's absolutely confident that he can purge these top generals, and there would be no kind of fighting back? or what does it say? I want both your opinions. I would say that if he's confident enough to, you know, investigate, purge them, then I would say that this is this is a move of absolute power.

And that is part of the problem. Because when you have that. in any kind of written branch of any organisation, what happens is you get almost paralysis. You get people too scared to speak up. You get people too fearful to say anything in case they're next. And we've seen that in some of the kind of lower echelons of local government. I think if what it says is, if you are prepared to take a seat on the CMC, if you're prepared to raise through the ranks,

then you must now bow to the absolute power of President Xi, because this is what can happen. What do you think? Do you think there could be any backlash from Zhang's power base against Xi Jinping? I think at the moment it's very hard to say. Everything's in flux, but I will put my bet on, no. Because I believe. that the fact that she can take down such a powerful general, generals. at one strike, it means that he's still fully in charge.

However, I would like to point out that. such moves definitely are alienating many people among the high command. I'm pretty sure many of the top generals and admirals are living in fear. They're probably very resentful. How that will be expressed, only time could tell. Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli probably promoted many of their underlings. And these guys are all going to be investigated. So one of the things I would like to ask, if I may is what do you think comes next?

Because we've seen, you know, quite a shocking announcement over the weekend. What do you think comes next? Do you think there are more purges of perhaps Zhang Youxia's, you know, friends, his, you know, the people he has appointed. Do you think that's what happens now? Yeah. When it comes to these kind of purges, it's once some top guys were removed, the next will be their associates. They will all be put under investigation.

Some of them will be locked away, but we wouldn't know the details. from the outside because they will not publicise the more of the aftermath, because it will make the PLA look too weak. They want to keep up a strong posture regardless. And there's a chance that Xi starts elevating his own underlings, people who he would consider loyal to the CMC. But the problem is, we've seen, we've noticed. that Xi has been quite reluctant to do that promptly. The CMC has basically been emptied.

Yeah, because you wrote in October, during the last purge, that the fall of Zhang would likely trigger a crisis within the PLA. So what do you think is the state of the PLA? Because we keep seeing military drills parade and they look really powerful. But at the same time, as you said, at the top, it's kind of empty now, isn't it? Yeah, sure. I mean, there's optics and there's reality, right? When it comes to the PLA high command, I will say that many of the officers are probably living in fear,

and the group is probably highly atomised. People are afraid to make connections with each other, to be seen together for fear of being seen as some kind of cabal. Like Laura said, you know, people at that level. are probably just burying their heads. and not making anything that will make themselves stand out. in the eyes of Xi, because that is very risky. We recently talked about Taiwan and how Beijing will likely.

try and reunite him, if necessary, by force. Many experts in the US and Taiwan seem to think that 2027, when the PLA turns 100, might be the year that they would make a move. But in both of your opinions, what do you think these purges mean. in terms of the capability of the PLA? Are they actually. as battle ready as they have been portraying themselves to be, Laura? So this is a tough question because obviously everything being so opaque, we just don't get to see what's going on behind the scenes.

And I was at the military parade last September. and that tremendous show of force. And you talk about, you know, the optics and the reality. Well, the optics there were certainly huge. We were talking, you know, the streets were. rumbling with the sound of tanks. You know, the air was filled with the sound of jets. And of course, you have this entire chorus of the PLA shouting. for their leader, President Xi. So the optics are certainly there.

And we've seen exercises recently, around the island of Taiwan, the self-governing island of Taiwan that China has claims as its own. I think the thing that we have to remember here is what. on what China's overall goal is. China's overall goal, and President Xi has stated this, is to reunite with the mainland. And when I speak to here in China, remember here in China, observers of the PLA, the one thing they keep telling me is China has patience.

We don't need to reunify by force. We can use other methods. I do think that when I speak to officials here. and when I speak to those who observe the PLA here, the one thing that they're keen for us certainly to hear. is that there are other ways to influence Taiwan. So that might be years worth of kind of grey-zone tactics. Now, whether or not the PLA is ready for any kind of action,

that is something that we will never know. But the fact that the only kind of anyone with kind of command. and combat experience has now gone, does leave a massive vacuum at the top. Large scale military operations, such as a war in the Taiwan Strait, are very, very complicated operations that need experienced professionals in place. And that is what the PLA is missing at the moment.

Beyond Zhang Youxia, we have Liu Zhenli, the chief of staff of the Joint Staff Department of the CMC. He's gone. He's supposed to be in charge of the C-4 ISR systems of the PLA, especially emphasising on the conduct, the conduct of operations, collection and analysis. of intelligence, as well as secure communications. So without anybody in this office right now, it is a huge question mark. if the PLA is ready. Then let's look at the CMC.

The CMC is basically being gutted since last year. Now there are only two members left a career political commissar, Zhang Shengmin. He spent about 98% of his time in the military being a political commissar, which means he has very little experience in actually leading troops. And then we have Xi himself, who spent about three years. in the PLA decades ago as a secretary. So we just do not have the professional competency at the CMC as well.

It's also useful to point out what happened. at the Eastern Theater Command a few months ago, when. the commander of the Eastern Theater Command basically was also purged, and the position was left vacant for about one or two months. until they had a new person appointed, just like last month. So, you know, when you have these constant instability, yes, you can put new people in, but they need to settle into their position. It takes time. It takes effort. As Laura said, it's very hard to guess what's happening within the PLA.

And as you said, further purges might not be publicised, but what are the signs that you'll be looking out for. in terms of what comes next from the Chinese authorities, Laura? I think I'll be looking out, I think. state media is a really good kind of example. I think it's worth pointing out that when it comes to these corruption purges, perhaps not in the military, but elsewhere, they are very popular with the people. Especially those who feel like for decades they've been overlooked.

that for decades party elites have been promoted, with backhanders, you know, with, party connections, with family connections. So I think, you know, in terms of the actual people here in China sometimes. and on many occasions, these corruption drives are very popular. Yeah. I'll be looking out for any further statements. from various regional commanders about their position regarding the Zhang Youxia case. Whether they'll align with the official position.

and how quickly they align to see that, you know, how solid the seized authority in the PLA. Also, I'm looking forward to promotions. or if Xi is just going to leave these positions empty, then I'm going to ask questions about what is going to be a come off of the CMC, because it used to be a collective national defense decision making organ, and now it's only Xi and one member and, it's quite a lonely journey up there, I think.

Yeah, indeed. It's a lonely place. It will continue to, I guess, speculate what happened within the PLA and what happens next. Yang Zi and Laura, thank you so much for joining me on Asia Specific. Thank you so much. Lovely to talk to you both. You've been watching Asia Specific from the BBC World Service. with me, Mariko Oi in Singapore. If you have any questions or thoughts on what we've covered in this episode. or any other stories from the region, please leave us a comment below. You can also get in touch with us on email asiaspecific@bbc.co.uk.

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