Can electric bikes save Vietnam's most polluted cities? - Asia Specific podcast, BBC World Service

What Vietnam is trying to do is to kind of copy the success. of Chinese EV makers then. No, they would never... That was a very quick no. I'll bet good money that they wouldn't. But I would like to be proven wrong because who knows these days anything can happen. It's one of the most polluted cities in the world. Can you guess where this is? You might be thinking Delhi, Jakarta, or maybe Bangkok, but it's actually Vietnam's capital, Hanoi. The country's biggest city.

Ho Chi Minh in the south isn't that much better. So does Vietnam's government have the answer to clear the air? It's betting on one of the boldest electric vehicle plans in the world, pushing to get more than 70 million riders to switch. to electric bikes starting in Hanoi. China has moved fast to encourage people to drive electric cars. But can Vietnam pull off similar success with a two-wheeler.

I'm Mariko in Singapore and this is Asia Specific from the BBC World Service. Twice a week we bring you Asia Pacific stories. unpacked by those who know them best. Well, today I have Sen Nguyen, a BBC Senior Journalist who grew up. in Vietnam, as well as Nick Marsh, a Business Reporter based in Singapore. But you've been to China to cover the electric car industry, haven't you? Yeah. That's right. Welcome, both. Sen, before we get to e-bikes, I want you to, I guess, paint the picture for us.

because motorbikes are huge part of day to day life in Vietnam, aren't they? Oh, yes. Oh, my God, it's been months since I've been. on my bike and I miss it so much. Being able to ride a motorbike, it has this profound sense. of freedom that makes me very miss it a lot. Now, when it comes to motorbike is the cornerstone. of Vietnam popular culture. When it comes to dating, it is the image, you know, of a guy pulling out on the street with his motorbike, picking up a girl, and she would wrap her hands around his waist as he speed up on the streets.

I love it And I guess when it comes to. public demonstration, which is the kind of thing. that authorities quite kind of want to put a tight lid on here. in Vietnam, the only acceptable and disorderly sort. of public demonstration is called 'Dibao' in Vietnamese. It means to storm the street. That is when people would pour out on the street, when the national football team has a victory. and they would pull out on the street with their motorbikes, you know, drumming their pots and blowing their.

plastic horns and yelling "Vietnam vô địch!". It means we are the champions, even though they really didn't win, is a team who won. They didn't win. And it's not just a means of transportation. It also drives the economy. Right? And you have internal migrants selling stuff on the motorbikes, and street vendors are everywhere using it to go through the streets. And there's actually a term. A researcher, R.F. Hansen,

actually describe capitalism in Vietnam. as running on two wheels, which I love. because it accurately depicts the economy that we have around motorbikes. Now, cultural sentiment aside, motorbikes have been deemed as a major source of air pollution. And with that, EVs come into the picture. And this is where the heart of the debate is. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I have to say, though, my parents used to live in Ho Chi Minh City, and the first time I got there.

and I was following a Vietnamese person and she was like, "follow me". I was like, "no, I'm not gonna cross the street. Like I'm gonna get hit by something". And she literally went and she had to actually literally come back. to get me and hold my hands and I'm like, "Oh my god, oh my gosh, I'm gonna die". But it's an amazing picture. And I think that's kind of the iconic image that many people have. of these big cities in Vietnam. Can I just say, just quickly, Sen. Because going to Vietnam is like running the gauntlet, isn't it? I've been as well. And, you know, you don't think you're going to make it to the other side alive.

What you just said there about the mopeds. I'm half Italian, and I was born there, and I used to go. It actually reminds me a lot of Italy. The going into the streets, like beeping the horns when you win football, the dates, you know, the girl on the back of the moped and all of that. I think there's a crossover that we didn't know much about there. Wow. I have no idea. Italians do this too. Okay, I'll do that next time. Yeah yeah. Yeah. And yeah, similar levels of danger as well.

Crossing the streets. Depending on which cities I won't name any. I don't want to offend anyone. Yeah. Getting hate mail already on that. But Sen mentioned air pollution, and I think that's what's pushing the Vietnamese government. to get people to hopefully switch to e-bikes. Nick, you covered electric cars in China, and the Chinese government did something similar, you know, encouraging people to drive electric cars instead of normal gasoline cars. Was that about air pollution or no?

Well, look, I'd love to say it was about air pollution, Mariko, but, you know, the cynical business reporter in me often wins out. And, no, it wasn't really. It's a, you know, convenient byproduct of of developing your electric vehicle industry. But what China did, and obviously, we'll talk about it later. The reason it wanted to become and eventually became the absolute world leader. in electric vehicles was an economic one. You know, we both covered China. We know that these things don't happen overnight.

So you've got to go back right to the beginning of this century, to see the foundations of this blueprint. And they essentially, the leadership at the time said, look, we've become brilliant at manufacturing. We can make stuff for anyone, but we don't want to become a country in the middle income trap". Right? And that's basically another way of saying, well, our standard of living is rising. Wages are rising, but we're not innovating. We're not doing anything cutting edge. We can't keep up with the advanced economies. And the leadership at the time said the future is EV.

We can't compete with the Western brands or the Japanese when it comes. to the petrol and diesel powered engines, but we can do it with electric. So they invested heavily into becoming the world leaders, and they did. Yeah, I think that's where Japanese carmakers kind of, I'm not sure. whether missed out is the right word, but they were kind of betting on hybrid. They didn't think that electric cars would go big in developing economies. You know, if you were trying to get people to drive your cars in Africa, you know, would people have the electric plug to charge it?,

I think was their was their thinking. But let's talk about who actually make those e-bikes. because Chinese companies also make them. But in Vietnam, VinFast is huge, isn't it, Sen? And I remember because VinFast made news headlines. for being like one of the biggest EV makers. Like not e-bikes but EV makers. And then suddenly, you know, all we saw was how they were always losing money. because they couldn't sell enough cars.

And now they're kind of switching to e-bikes, aren't they? How are they doing, Sen? If you look at the global perspective. that VinFast is trying to have a foothold, the competition is much, much more fierce in the US. and other markets that VinFast is trying to enter. So while you have a sort. of more promising domestic market that is buying EVs from VinFast, the same cannot be said for other markets that Vincent is trying to enter.

Partly because the competition is much more fierce there, and also because EV adaptation is not as fast as VinFast would like. And so if you look at it from a user perspective, and if you are Vietnamese ev buyer, in particular, you would have. certain questions about whether VinFast would be a good choice. But because they are everywhere and they're so visible,

and there is an active call for Vietnamese to be proud. of a national brand, given the fact. that there isn't many major Vietnamese brands in the world to begin with. So there's a lot of motivation to sort of try VinFast out. But to be fair, the numbers are not quite what they want it yet. Have you ever tried it? Have you ever ridden VinFast car or bike? Not because I wanted to. My dad was very much ahead of the curve in that sense, actually.

He bought one, I think, five years ago. And I have so many questions for him, like, how are you going to get around? how are you going to charge it? Is it going to look as cool as you are on a traditional bike? you know, because that's what you've always been proud of. And he's like, yeah, it's fine. Just, Sen, Just quickly, was your dad offered subsidies for that? Was there a financial incentive for him to get the e-bike? Because that's what they're doing in, I mean, most countries.

actually, in China. No, it wasn't it was more expensive, was it? Yeah it was. That's why I was shocked by his. It was just a pioneer. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Well, he's, you know, he's sort of, he's like this guy, he likes to look cool. And he want to try the new stuff. And I kind of, I'm like, okay, fine, you can indulge yourself on this stuff, but you cannot buy any more things without asking me. about it, because it was more expensive then. And it apparently, according to him, it paid off. over time because he doesn't have to pay for gasoline,

and the fact that he's still living in Hanoi. and seeing how air pollution unfolds. And according to authorities, motorbikes, gasoline powered motorbikes, more precisely, is the major source of air pollution. So he kind of connect the dots and say, oh, you know, I'm quite far sighted, you see, like it was a not a reckless purchase. I was going to say, yeah. We should have invited him. Yeah, that's really, really incredible. But yeah, we want to get to the practicality of charging those e-bikes.

But let's stick to who made those e-bikes. Because as we've discussed, Chinese companies, BYD obviously now overtaking Tesla. as the world's best selling EV maker. Who out of Chinese companies make e-bikes. that are assuming targeting Vietnam and other Asian markets as well, Nick? Nor the big Chinese EV companies have got, you know, most of them have some kind of sideline in e-bikes. E-bikes aren't that popular in China.

I don't think it's a real car based, you know, kind of country. It was the nation of bicycles back in the day, obviously. But, you know, cars quickly overtaken them. And now it's interesting, actually, because when you, when you go to China. I was in Guangzhou last year, and it's rush hour and it's traffic jams and cars everywhere, and it's so quiet. You know, it's so quiet. So it's completely changed the cityscape. I think Guangzhou particularly has a high concentration of EVs, at least one or two, if not more EVs, maybe cities up in the north,

it's a little bit different. But they'll all be, you know, making these e-bikes. And the plan, I would assume, Sen, you can tell me a bit more about what the situation in Vietnam is, the plans to sell abroad. All of these companies, they want to sell abroad because the market's kind of saturated now in China. So it's all about the new market. Southeast Asia here is a clear new market. And not Singapore where we live, but Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam.

Everyone gets around on bikes, don't they? On motorised bikes. And I guess for that many people to switch to EVs, as you said, Chinese government offered subsidies in order for them to be able. to afford something a slightly more expensive than normal cars. Sen, what's the Vietnamese government doing? Are they now, you know, your dad probably didn't benefit from it, but are they now offering incentives? Are they offering subsidies to Vietnamese companies? You know, I guess most notably VinFast?

Now, I think there is a strong case, a strong argument to also say, well, this can also be an economic motivation. It's not just air pollution, but in writing it is air pollution. Vietnam doesn't have, let's say, framework to develop EV as an industry. as comprehensively as they have. Did they done that in China? And when the policy to ban gasoline powered vehicles in Hanoi.

and Ho Chi Minh City were announced, there were allegations that. because of how quickly and how sudden this policy will release. and were expected to roll out this year in July. So exactly one year from the point. of coming out to the public. There were allegations that this might have been an economic driven policy, rather than one that would serve to address air pollution.

And if you look at who are the biggest players in Vietnam. when it comes to EVs is VinFast. So the allegation is, was this written to serve the purpose of VinFast. given how they have been struggling overseas? And that's, there's no proof to this. But this is what people have been thinking. And there is this vibrant entrepreneurial spirit among Vietnamese. where if the government is not going to do it, I'm going to do it. And so you can see that example, with VinFast,

because they have their own charging station so that company's called V-Green. Now BYD, BYD is interesting. I want to hear Nick say more about, actually, if you don't mind, because I would like to see how BYD. I know that it's been dominating almost everywhere it goes. There's a very careful line for you to tread here in Vietnam. when it comes to letting Chinese giants, like, be ready to explode like it has in other countries in Vietnam, partly because there is a very powerful anti-China sentiment.

And if you combine that with the fact. that you're trying to get people to be more powerful, to take more, pride in national brands like VinFast and, you know, just go out and buy it. That's a very dangerous, well, not dangerous, but like sensitive combination to have. Yeah, I think you're spot on there. Really. I mean, this is. where sort of, you know, politics and national sentiment, affects business, basically, because you're quite right. BYD has become the king of EVs in China.

It wants to be the king of EVs in the world. right now. And it's doing well in places like Singapore. You know, it's doing well in places like Cambodia, Thailand, that kind of thing. BYD was supposed to build a factory in Vietnam. It was actually partnering with a company called New Energy Holdings, who basically run all these showrooms around Vietnam. The factory is not happening anymore, and the company NEH has pulled out. So BYD basically has no factory and it has no showrooms to sell.

in Vietnam. Why did that got scrapped? Nothing. Business reasons. Not official. Business. Reasons. Yeah. Very secretive. But a plausible explanation could be what you're talking about there. Because obviously, you know, I've been in Southeast Asia quite a while. All countries are kind of wary of China and its economic might. I think maybe Vietnam is where that wariness kind of turns more. into outright hostility among certain people. That's just fascinating, though, because I think, you know, it may seem like a dumb question to you, Sen.

But I think to people outside of Vietnam or, you know, possibly Asia, both China and Vietnam are communist countries. And I was thinking maybe the Vietnamese leaders looked at China. and thought, oh, you know, look how well they did with electric cars. They probably did. Yeah, but they... I mean, you can't you can't ignore it. It's too big. But like, would they ever acknowledge. that, you know, what Vietnam is trying to do is. to kind of copy the success of Chinese EV makers then.

No, they would never. That was a very quick no. I bet good money that they wouldn't. But I would like to be proven wrong because who knows these days anything can happen. But no, when it comes to major policies being announced by either the PM. or as a framework, as a sentiment announced by, you know, the party secretary, China, as an example, as a, you know, the exempt look up to in order for this policy. or some policy that would be announced due to be modeled after.

That's something rare. So Sen, do you think Vietnam can pull it off? Whether or not they would ever acknowledge the fact. that they were looking at the Chinese success model. Do you think they can actually successfully switch. all those 70 some million riders to electric bikes? That's the question for the entire episode. But I would like to be hopeful and say that, you know, whether or not EV is a solution to air pollution or not, that's still debatable. Because even the source of air pollution.

in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are debatable. Hanoi saying 60% coming from motorbikes, 60% of air pollution is caused by motorbikes. But then the Ministry of Environment say no, it's actually much less than that. It's actually also coming farming practices as well over time. So the questions of whether they can pull off EVs. and in the industry have exploded 100%.

since it became to the map, since it came on the map. But what I mean to say here is that there are. bigger infrastructure issues here that haven't been really addressed. I guess compared to Vietnam, China has done a remarkable job, haven't they? In terms of putting in the infrastructure of charging stations, shifting to electric cars and so on. Yeah, I mean, you just asked send there, you know, will Vietnam be able to pull it off?

I think a fair answer to that question would be ask me in 25 years time, because, you know, that is kind of how long these things take. I mean, I suppose a lot of the work is being done now at the foundations. But anyway, China did it. It's interesting that VinFast is such a dominant player, right? Because in China they did it completely differently. They said, look, we've got subsidies for you. If you want to buy a car, we'll give you money. If you want to trade in your old car, you can swap it. The batteries, you know, the electricity is cheap. Everything from the very beginning to the end is subsidised.

But it's not for one company. You know, it's not all BYD. You can have all this. They're basically doing the old fashioned capitalist way. Here's all the money. You compete amongst yourselves, and then the strongest will emerge. And that's pretty much what's happened. I mean, I went to a company that was set up ten years ago. It was a start-up. It's like being in Silicon Valley, and now it's one of the top ten EV makers in the world. So there's going to be a lot of companies that fall by the wayside. And it's that intense, intense competition.

that, you know, has allowed the best players to come to the fore. and now sort of dominate at least Asia, if not the world. That's what people have called state capitalism. You know, it's basically moving all the resources of the state, but allowing that entrepreneurial spirit to then, you know, innovate and develop. And that is why when I look at Vietnam and I see one player dominating. so heavily, I think, well, that's an interesting approach. That's different to the way that China has done it. And I don't know whether that will work or not.

Only time will tell, to use a cliche, I know. But one of the real key strengths. of the way that China has done it is by fostering that competition and. of course, backing it with billions and billions of dollars. I think the two biggest lessons that I've learned today, the similarities between Italy and Vietnam, and also the fact that Vietnamese authorities never admit. that they've been looking at China as a success model. I didn't know that. I've learned so much today, much smarter after this episode.

Thank you Sen. And thank you Nick. You've been watching Asia Specific from the BBC World Service. with me, Mariko Oi in Singapore. If you have any questions or thoughts on what we've covered in this episode. or any other stories from this region, please leave us a comment below. You can also get in touch with us on email Asia Specific at bbc.co.uk. And you know the drill. Click, like and subscribe so you never miss an episode. But until next time, see you. Bye. Bye bye.