Can an Asian team win the men's World Cup? - Asia Specific podcast, BBC World Service

The football Men's World Cup is getting underway. And Nick, could an Asian country finally win it? I don't want to start things off on a down. Probably not, but there are loads of Asian teams playing. I think it's ten in total, including New Zealand, Japan, South Korea. The big powerhouses out in East Asia goes all the way to Western Asia, you know, Iran, Iraq and countries like that. So if you like Asian football, brilliant loads to follow. But they're up against some big competition. They are. I mean, we're all optimists here.

We'd all love to see an Asian team go far in the competition. But what they're up against European teams, Latin American teams, they have so much history, so much legacy that it really does play. into the strength of their national teams in today. So it sounds like it's not just about the teams, but also about broader football culture of each country that's playing into it. So we're asking, what will it take for an Asian country. to one day win on football's biggest stage?

As always, I'm Mariko in Singapore. and this is Asia Specific from the BBC World Service. Twice a week we bring you Asia Pacific stories. unpacked by those who know them best. So our Chief Presenter, Steve Lai, have been appointed by me, personally, as our resident football correspondent. Welcome back. Yeah, thanks. I started life as a sports presenter, so, you know, returning to my roots. Indeed. And before Steve even joined the BBC, Nick Marsh, our business reporter, used to be or still is. the go to person for everything sport related news stories.

Welcome back to the pod. Thank you, Mariko. Mainly football, mainly football, I have to say as well. And Rugby as well. Not so much in the rugby. Maybe compared to you. Yeah. But yeah, I'm a business reporter. but I'm a very big football fan as well. And you're also in charge of the bureau's sweepstake of the World Cup. Yeah. We're looking forward to the draw. In charge of the money. Yeah. Good luck with that. Let's bribe him with that. So I understand this year's World Cup is the biggest in terms of the number of teams.

So 48 of them, up from 32 for the last few decades, as you can tell. For those of you listening, I'm in bright red. and white representing cheering for Samurai Blue, the Japanese national team. Also South Korea qualified as well from this part of the world. Does this mean an Asian country has a better chance of winning? Nick Marsh? Well, the short answer is probably no. But based on what Mariko is wearing. Come on, Nick.

No, no. I'm sure they're going to take great inspiration from this. They might even call you up, actually. Who knows? There are more Asian teams. That's true. Because it's a bigger tournament. Of course, Asian teams have been doing better and better. You know, with every World Cup we've seen some really good performances. from Japan, you know, they beat Spain, they beat Germany in the last one. South Korea, famously when they hosted it, went all the way to the semifinals as well.

So there's talent in Asia and we're talking about South Korea and Japan. They're the two powerhouses really. But if we're talking about winning it, it's a different kettle of fish. Don't you think? Yeah, it's really tough. I mean you can have like a one off good performance. You could have a big upset. You know a lot of the underdog stories. a lot of the neutrals get behind, especially this part of the world. Want to see Japan do well or South Korea do well. I remember when South Korea knocked out Germany. and it was incredible to see, you know, Son Heung min go clean. on goal to make it two nil in that game.

And and everyone had like really high expectations, high hopes. But they were soon knocked out after. So having one good performance or claiming one big scalp is one thing, but going all the way to the end of a tournament, you know, you're playing up to eight matches. It's tough. I stay optimistic. But I also understand, tell me the phrase, the Asian Confederation. So when in the football terms, when we say Asian countries and a record number of countries from Asia, what does it mean? Which countries are we talking about?

We're talking about the whole of Asia. So the whole geographic definition of Asia. So that includes Southeast Asia where we are, East Asia, you know, China, South Korea, Japan. That includes the Middle East. So countries like Saudi Arabia, you've got Iraq who have qualified. Iran, Qatar. Iran, Qatar. Exactly. So, you know, the whole confederation, it's the biggest in the entire world.

Traditionally, the best teams have come. from either the very East or the very West. Would that be fair to say? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Iran have been, you know, featured in the World Cup quite a few times. Japan obviously sort of the strongest Asian team. I mean, they ranked 18th in the world in the FIFA rankings, which is really good for an Asian team. And actually recently there's one more country that we haven't mentioned. that is Asian in a football sense. That's Australia. So Australia are geographically Oceania,

but they were playing against teams like American Samoa and Fiji. and you know, Tuvalu and frankly destroying them. They're too big, too good at football. So they actually asked to be part of the Asian Confederation. in order to challenge themselves more to play against better teams. And they've also qualified as well. And speaking of Oceania, New Zealand. Yeah. Well that's the sort of the impact of the knock on effect of Australia moving out. is that New Zealand has now become the dominant force in that region.

And they have now found themselves, you know, on the plane or they're already competing in the World Cup, I think first time in 16 years that they're going to be there. Oh, wow. So it's pretty exciting for these smaller nations, this expanded format gives more nations a chance to take part. in one of the biggest, well, the biggest sporting event in the world. I mean, there's obviously a lot of buzz in North America. where this World Cup is being hosted. Obviously in Europe, it's huge. But what about in terms of like fans in Asia? I know you guys are like all over it,

but in terms of time zone, like wouldn't you have to get up. in the middle of the night to watch the games? Or in the early morning. Is the freshest. you're going to see us for a while, I think, to be honest. Like it's going to be a tough one. It is. I mean the matches, I mean we're based here in Singapore. and the matches are going to be taking place from midnight here. in Singapore all the way through the morning up until 12 lunchtime. Their matches as well during the group stage. So yeah, there's going to be a lot of tired people in Asia, but I don't think it's going to stop fans from watching and enjoying it. One of the BBC sports podcasts More than the Score,

actually interviewed the captain of South Korea's national team, Son Heung-min. And this is how he characterised his team's chances. Leading this global tournament, it comes like, it feels like it's a dream come true again. So it doesn't matter how many World Cup you played. It is just as a footballer's dream. So being part of representing your country is always a is a big thing. So everything is possible. I wouldn't say,

I wouldn't say where we should stop. So we just want to keep going as much as we can. So obviously it takes a lot of energy, a lot of sacrifice. But we got to do everything, everything right to be successful. So that was Son Heung-min saying that anything, everything is possible. for the South Korean team. But judging from what you guys said, despite what he said, despite how I feel, you don't think.

there's much of a chance for Japan, South Korea to win the tournament? Hey, I think we all would love to see it. I would love to see Son Heung-min lift a trophy. I mean, his club career didn't lift as many as he would have hoped. But you know, he's 33 years old. The South Korean team is going through a bit of a transition as well. But, you know, they've got more players playing in European leagues than they have before. Japan as well. A lot of their most. of their squad play in some of the biggest leagues in the world. So they have been getting better. But you know, as they get better, it's not like other teams are standing still.

So, you know, the European teams, South American teams are all getting better. The African teams are getting better. So it's a really hard thing to improve relative to everybody else. Yeah. South Korea has produced fantastic players. And I'm just having a scroll here. through the squad that they're sending to the tournament. You know, I'm looking at flags from England, Germany, Netherlands. You've got, you know, players that teams like Bayern Munich. and Paris Saint-Germain and you know playing. in these European leagues has definitely improved the level. And it's the same can be said for Japan as well.

And that's also credit to their domestic leagues. which are pretty well attended, pretty well funded. They've got proper academies in place. There's a culture essentially of being a young kid, you know, boys and girls thinking, yeah, this could be a viable career path. And they collaborate with the schools, they collaborate with the universities. The facilities are improving, you know, in these domestic leagues, become feeders to the top European leagues. That's not where they want to be in the long term. Obviously, no country wants to be there in the long term,

but it shows you that they are producing top quality players. Just to talk on what Nick was mentioning. When it comes to Japan. in particular, they've been developing the grassroots game for decades. We talked about this with Neil in a previous podcast about football, and well worth a watch to anybody that hasn't seen it, which really sort of went into the details about how Japan's approach is. so much different from other Asian countries that have really gone. from a top down approach of lifting the ceiling, if you like, of just throwing in spending big money, whether it's the Chinese league or the Saudi League, bringing in big known players to raise the profile of the league.

From the outside? From the outside. But that doesn't help. you know, the young kids coming up and to grow the game. And you need like a critical mass of, you know, thousands and thousands. of young players that can play and love the game and grow with the game, and then it sort of whittles down as you go higher up and older and older, until you get the actual cream of the crop, to then have. your national team be able to compete on the global stage and go toe to toe. with these big European countries or these big South American countries.

I mean, I think I remember growing up in Japan, you know, there's an anime or manga about football. And then even though I wasn't a huge follower of football, you know, J-League, the domestic league in Japan, you just kind of have to have your favourite team, even though you don't necessarily understand. all the rules just so that you can have a conversation with your friends. So I think all of that helps. But you talked about China. So China invested a lot of money in football. And yet year after year they failed to qualify.

Also Southeast Asian countries, none of them managed to make it this year. So what's the difference between China in comparison to South Korea. and Japan, in addition to what Steve was talking about? I mean, you know, there's a lot of reasons for it. I did a bit of reporting on it not long ago. And, you know, you can boil it down to basically. the political structure is different in China. You know, the Communist Party essentially runs everything, you know, whether that's, you know, directly or indirectly.

So there's a bit of a top down approach when it comes to that. When it comes to selecting coaches, when it comes to how clubs are run, when it comes to who's entitled to funds and who isn't, that sort of thing, basically that kind of grassroots culture that so many countries. in Europe thrive from and in South America as well, where basically you spend your free time playing sport, playing football, you know, a lot of the time it's just that's just what you do. Everyone gives it a go, everyone has a go, and then the best gets selected and you say, you know the best.

and the best and the best to the top of that pyramid. Then you've got, you know, truly elite athletes. It doesn't really happen so much in China. You know, the number of players, even though China is well over a billion people, the number of players and I don't want to get this wrong, but it's less than the UK, which has a population. of about 70 million. We're talking amateur here, right. So it's a numbers game to a certain extent and clearly culturally.

And whether that's because of politics or whether because of history, it's just not seen as a thing to do with your spare time. and to dedicate money and time and resources into. It's interesting to think about like how long these different countries have been doing this. Like if you think about China or Saudi Arabia more recently, or some of the Asian countries, it's in the measured in the decades. But these European countries or South American countries. have been, you know, been part of the World Cup since the 1930s. They're going back a long time where the infrastructure has been put in place.

It's interesting to make a comparison with the women's game. Like Japan have won the Women's World Cup back in 2011. And, you know, in the decades past, they had put all this grassroots investment in place. in the women's game, both in Japan and China as well. And they were able to compete more. and more level playing field with the big Asian powerhouses, or the USA, for example, that the women's team is really good, and they beat the USA in that 2011 World Cup. And because when they were starting, all the other nations.

in women's football were also starting at the same time, so they weren't playing catch up quite so much. And when that playing field is a bit more level, then you see the results also become a bit more, more level. It's a really good point about this level playing field. And you can even extend it into looking at how a country. like China has managed to achieve in other sports, for example, the individual sports in the Olympics, you know, whether that's, I don't know, weightlifting or some, you know, athletics and things like that doing really well, right? Coming off in second, third or whatever, you know, maybe topping the list.

in certain regards because you can put targeted money into that. It's easier to target, you know, a specific sport. where individuals will just be able to hone their abilities to the top. And, you know, you're going to get a gold medal at the end. You know, football is a bit more of an organic process. And football, the playing field just isn't anywhere near as level. We talked about Malaysia a couple of months ago. in that episode where, let me get this right.

They got into trouble for submitting doctored birth certificates. to FIFA to bring in seven foreign players into the team. Obviously, they were fined and those players got suspended, so that didn't work. I mean, that seems obviously quite desperate. But in terms of like Southeast Asian countries, they are quite hungry. They are very desperate to get qualified. So what exactly needs to happen to do that? Well again, how long do we have? How long do we have?

There's passion for football here. There's talent. You know, I play here in Singapore at an amateur level, reasonably seriously. for an amateur, but still, you know, nowhere near a professional level. Very modest. He's very good. And look, there are good players. There are good players. The problem is when you become a professional here, you're earning. a lot less than you'd be earning if you were doing a white collar job. That's not the case in the UK. That's not the case in Europe or in South America. In fact, being a footballer makes you astronomically wealthy.

Here it's not true. You know, there's a lot of people who will retire at 26, 27. through an injury or even they'll have a good long career until 35. And then what they say, what do I do next? Do I coach? Do I drive a taxi? You know, do I do another job to make ends meet? So there's no money in it. That's the first thing. People don't go on, they don't want to watch the local leagues. They want to watch the Premier League. They want to watch La Liga and all these big leagues. So there's no money in it. So if you're a parent, you're going to say,

well, why do you want to become a footballer when you could go to uni. and you could can work for a bank or become a doctor or a lawyer. So there's that. There's also the fact that. with the exception of Singapore, which is small, Southeast Asia is less economically developed, isn't it, than South Korea and Japan. So there's less money there to go into this infrastructure. But look, I mean, look, I don't know. I mean, I shouldn't really be answering this question because Steve, you know, you've been based here longer than I have. You're immersed in the scene. I mean, what do you, who's the strongest out of the Southeast Asian nations, do you think? Who has the most potential? Yeah. Thailand and Vietnam have been pretty strong in recent years.

I think the challenge as well is that in Asia more generally, there's such a disparity between the different nations. So you have like Japan, Korea, you know, they're 18th and 20 something in the world. And then you have Thailand and Vietnam who are really good in Southeast Asia, but they are significantly lower down the FIFA rankings list. So whenever these countries want to play against each other. or when Southeast Asian teams play against each other, it's hard for them to improve.

like we talked about Australia wanting to move out of Oceania to move. to the AFC so that they could be in a more competitive environment. Well, we have all these disparities between all the different Southeast Asian nations. And then so they end up sort of playing against each other a lot of the time. And then they're kind of stuck there. And then once they move beyond that, now they're playing Japan, South Korea. And that's a very big leap. So it's very hard to grow. and develop and be competitive. We're going to see in this World Cup that it's not going to be. just the best teams on the pitch that will go far.

It'll be the teams that have got everything in place, whether it's their medical teams, whether it's their logistics teams, because of all the travel that's going to be involved in this tournament. You need to have so many elements that are all pulling in the same direction. that it's just so hard to to keep that momentum going. So time for crystal ball. Are we going to see an Asian country win the World Cup in our lifetime? I was wondering what time frame you were going to give us. Lifetime. And if so, which one, Nick Marsh?

Yeah, I think so, actually. Pele famously said that an African team would win the World Cup. before 2000s. Yes. And that was quite a big call at the time. Didn't happen. And African football has kind of plateaued a bit to be honest. Since then with the exception of a few teams. Genuinely, yes I do. I've spent a little bit of time in Asia. I've played a little bit of football and I've watched, you know, the set ups.

I think Japan would be the one. I think Japan would the one. Pele got it wrong, but Nick Marsh might get it right. I do, I honestly do think they will. Nick Marsh and Pele. Well, one thing. that would give you hope with that is that, you know, over the last five or so years, the number of Japanese players playing. in the European domestic leagues has just shot up. It's growing, there's more and more Japanese talent going to the best leagues in the world, playing for the biggest teams and and doing well.

So the more of that happens, the stronger. the national team is going to be. So you've got to, like Nick, I mean, if it's going to be any team in this, from this part of the world, it's going to be Japan. Not just saying that because you're the host, but it would have to be them. I really hope it happens. I really hope it happens soon. For the fourth time, fifth time, I remain optimistic. that Japan will get through to at least hopefully the finals. But let's see. Let's bet. Let's revisit.

Thank you so much for coming on the pod, Steve and Nick. You've been watching Asia Specific from the BBC World Service. with me, Mariko Oi in Singapore. If you have any questions or thoughts on what we covered in this episode. or any other stories from the region, please leave us a comment below. You can also get in touch with us on email asiaspecific@bbc.co.uk. and click like and subscribe so you never miss an episode. See you next time. Bye.