Will Donald Trump intervene following mass protests in Iran? | Global News Podcast

Welcome to the Global News podcast here. on YouTube, where we go behind the. headlines to find out more about a story. and why it matters. Today, what next for. Iran? Well, the government in Thran say. the anti-government protests in which. hundreds of people are thought to have. been killed are now under total control. President Trump had threatened military. action if the Iranian regime killed. protesters. Now he says the leadership. in Thran wants to negotiate. Well, I'm.

joined by the BBC's international. editor, Jeremy Bowen. Welcome, Jeremy. And tell us, President Trump says he. wants to negotiate with Tran. Do we know. what's happening behind the scenes? >> Well, no, we don't really. And and the. question is, what are they going to. negotiate about? because earlier rounds. of negotiations going back into the. Biden administration and before that of. course um in the era of Obama were about. Iran's nuclear program. Now while that.

there is plenty to discuss with all of. that, that's not why people have been on the. streets of Tehran and big cities and. small smaller towns right across Iran. uh that was a this is a protest which. has been started off because of economic. woes and and it's morphed into something. rather bigger. However, it could be that. Trump wants to come away with something. that he can say look this is what my. pressure on the Iranians has um has.

gleaned and that is a new round of. talks. Having said that, if they did. actually sit down to talk again about. the the nuclear issues, it would be. immensely difficult because all the. rounds of talks, for example, that the. Biden administration had in the end came. to nothing. >> How key is the relationship with the. United States and particularly with this. president? >> Well, Trump is a transactional guy. Uh. he likes to show results. He likes to. say, "Yeah, we made a deal." So if some. kind and and I suspect therefore that.

the the Iranian offer of talks is is. there pretty clever the Iranians. actually and they probably think well. this is a way of getting him to ease up. on the the military threats maybe put. more pressure on Israel not to take. action against us as well because he. thinks he might be able to get a. diplomatic process going that might lead. to some kind of a deal and even if they. don't really think in real life it would. lead to some kind of a deal uh a process. like that is a way of keeping him off. their backs.

>> So, what are President Trump's options? We're not just talking about military. strikes, are we? >> Well, no, not just military. There's. other things they can do if they want to. attack the regime. They can use cyber. They can try and disrupt their. communications. uh they don't often big countries like. America don't often talk about their. cyber capabilities but uh President. Trump couldn't resist a bit of a boast. when well it was only about a week ago. now just over a week when they uh. kidnapped the president of Venezuela and. he said that we you know we we cut all.

the street lights because that's a. capacity we can do uh we put we put. Caracus into darkness so they could do. something like that. I do think that it. is very hard to see how you help a. street protest against an authoritarian. government by bombing that government. because let's of course throughout the. history of aerial warfare when. populations and cities have been bombed. it very often creates a a nationalist.

backlash. There [snorts] had been speculation that. these demonstrations would mean the. beginning of the end of the regime. I. mean, what effect do you think they'll. have? >> I think it's clearly the regime has been. weakened in the last particularly in the. last year. They've lost allies in the. region through Israeli military action. They've had a severe bombing campaign in. that 12-day war back in the summer with. the Americans joining in with the. Israelis. However, I think those people who want.

the end of the regime are going to be. disappointed. Uh the the street protests. don't have necessarily a coherent. movement behind them. That's one thing. Uh second of all, killing people on the. streets and the the regime in Tehran has. shown repeatedly it's prepared to do. that is actually a very good way to stop. them going into the streets and. protesting because people get scared and. you cannot blame them for that. They. think they're going to get shot dead. Well, you know, would you stay at home?

Hundreds have been. >> Yeah. And hundreds have been. Um, and. the other thing is to would be to look. for is would there are there have cracks. appeared within the the government, the. different branches of government there. Well, there it's there are always. factions. They disagree about things. like the degree to which they should. speak to the west, speak to the. Americans, the degree to which they. should be concerned about the outside. world or go their own way. Um, but I think the thing that that. knits them together is their concern and.

their desire to keep the system of the. Islamic Republic going and they're all. within that consensus. And right now the. if you like the the network of coercion. and repression that the Iranian regime. has internally. well they appear to be obeying orders. Their security guys have been opening. fire on the streets at civilian.

protesters. Uh the government there says. that in fact they've been attacked too. and they have had to bury members of the. security forces. So that seems to have. been happening. But the the Basie militia, the IRGC, the. uniformed guys, they seem to be not. split, loyal, and following orders and. that is very important in terms of the. uh the Islamic regime in Thran keeping. its grip on the country. >> But do you think the Talah's grip is.

weakening because there were protests in. 2022 as well as these most recent ones? >> Yeah, and protests before that. I mean, I was in Iran in 2009 when there were. big protests after disputed set of. elections. And then I was there too. while they were being cracked down on. And in the end, these big big shows of. force by security forces, men with. clubs, men with weapons, automatic. weapons, uh these sort of posies of of. motorcycle.

um motorcycle cops and um militia guys. going around the city like sort of. flying pickets to break up. demonstrations. All that was going on. too. So yeah, I think undoubtedly the. regime has been weakened. The Supreme. Leader is an old man. He's in his late. 80s and he's not going to be there. forever clearly. Uh so there there's. been for some years talk about what the. succession would be. I think these these. reports which have been flying about of. him, you know, preparing to flee to.

Moscow and so on. I think there's no. evidence whatsoever for anything like. that. But yeah, the regime is weak. Every time there's this this a big. upsurge of disagreement, dissent and. answered by killing, it does leave the. regime weaker. There's no doubt about. it. But essentially the real weakness. and the big problem they face is. economic right now because it's. combination. That's why these demos. started. It's a combination of economic. mismanagement, corruption, and the.

really damaging impact of sanctions. >> What about the impact on the Middle. East? because Iran is tremendously. powerful in the region. >> Yeah. Well, they they've they've lost. quite a bit of that power uh because of. the attacks that Israel has made on. their various allies in in Lebanon, in. Yemen. Um they've lost the Assad regime. in Syria who were very important part of. their network just over a year ago. So. that undoubtedly has has absolutely um.

unhinged their whole security strategy. for the region. But Iran is a country. which believes it has a legitimate role. to play. It wasn't colonized. It was. it's been independent for millennia. It's been a you know has a very strong. sense of itself. Has a population I. think of getting off of 90 million. people. It's a big country with lot of. natural resources. uh so uh they will always be a factor in.

the region but certainly at the moment. the Islamic regime is threatened no. doubt by these these um protests but I. think that they still have the capacity. and the desire to hang on to power. >> Thanks Jeremy and that was Jeremy Bowen. the BBC's international editor and you. can find out more on the Global News. podcast. Find it wherever you get your. podcasts. And if you particularly liked. this episode, please subscribe to us.

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