Why India could face a food and fuel crisis | Global News Podcast

Hello, welcome to the Global News. Podcast from the BBC World Service. I'm. Anjana Gadgil, and today, is India on the brink of a food and fuel. crisis? The UN chief has issued a dire. warning about climate change. >> Climate disasters are pounding lives, livelihoods, and economies across the. globe. And this is the path to mutually assured. destruction. >> Extreme weather linked to El Niño has. threatened crops around the world, while. the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. have pushed up energy costs. So, what.

impact is this having in the world's. most populated country, India, and. across South Asia? With me in the studio is our Global. Affairs Reporter and South Asia. Specialist Ambarasan Ethirajan. So, Ambarasan, okay, let's kick off then. with. India, Asia as a whole, and with the COP. conference taking place right now, um. what's being discussed um as we speak? >> The whole purpose of this COP summit.

happening in Turkey is to discuss ways. to reduce global warming. What are the. ways how they can reduce or control the. rising temperature because they want to. keep it below 1.5. degrees Celsius to the pre-industrial. level. You know, basically the aim of. this summit is to talk more about how. they can use electricity in terms of. energy use and also move away from. fossil fuels, which are you know, mostly.

blamed for one of the reasons for the. way the climate is you know, the. temperatures, global warming is. happening. So, these are some of the. aims, but in in addition to that, countries like Nepal and Bhutan, uh they want to talk about mountains as. well because of the you know, the the. huge flash flood that happened in. Nepal a couple of months ago that led to. huge destruction in which more than. 1,400 people were killed, thousands are. still.

for. So they want to bring in because. they argue that because of this climate. change and this global warming that's. having an impact on the Himalayan. mountain range that's melting some of. the glaciers and they saw this disaster. couple of months ago. So these are some. of the issues they are discussing and. how they are all having an impact on. different parts of the world. >> And the subject of El Nino is popping up. a lot on our timelines, on news feeds. and I'm sure at COP amongst all these.

climate leaders. Just talk to us first. of all about the impact of El Nino and. and you know I'm I'm seeing some experts. describing it as something which is. making oceans like the Pacific burn, you. know and and these sort of phrases. So. we we just need to understand I guess. the impact that El Nino could have in a. village in India or in a city in the. United States for example. >> The experts are already calling this as. a super El Nino and it is going to have. a huge impact on the global weather. patterns and this is what the head of.

the World Meteorological Organization. has to say. >> From January to September the global. average temperature was about 1.47. degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial. average. When we take into account El Nino, a. strong El Nino, it is likely to rise. further for 2026 as a whole. We forecast. that it may be 3.8 degrees Celsius above.

average during November 2026. to January 2027. >> Even though El Nino is not something. new, it happens anywhere you know. sometimes between two or five or seven. years. But the impact on its monsoon, the. global weather patterns that is where. the real issue is. When it changes the. monsoon pattern, many countries like you. know in Asia, in India or in Pakistan. where they depend on these monsoon. rains, when the pattern changes that has.

an impact on their agriculture pattern. Also, the droughts increase. So, the. droughts become more intense. and you also see the forest fires in. countries like Indonesia. What they are. saying is one of the worst years where. they see these forest fires. Now, this. is being increased because of the super. El Nino. Now, if you come to India for. example, this year the Met Office there. said they received at least 13% less. monsoon than the previous year average.

That's one of the worst in a decade. So, what it has led to? Now, in states like in Maharashtra or in. Karnataka, they have declared drought in. many parts. In fact, in Maharashtra it. covered more than 80% of the state. and they are not having enough water for. the winter season crops and same in. Karnataka state and few other states as. well. Now, if this is going to have an impact. on the food production. that is actually increasing the food. cost as well. You see the inflation.

hovering around 5.5% in India in. September and food inflation is around. 7.7%. So, the prices of rice, pulses and. the meat they have gone up. quite significantly. People are feeling. the pinch especially during the festival. time. Now, this is also leading to mass. migration of workers, agricultural. laborers because they're not finding. enough work. in the rural areas, agricultural work. So, they're moving towards cities. That. is. putting pressure on big cities. So, the El Nino is not only on this.

agricultural pattern, but if you look at. what happened in Sri Lanka last year. when three months worth of rain fell. within few days. So, basically the intensity of the. monsoon is changing. Instead of having a. regular monsoon for a month or a couple. of months, you have a huge amount of. rain falling at a very short period. That means. you you can have landslides, you can. have floods or you can have this glacial.

lake melting and then disaster. So, the. intensity is having other impacts as. well. That is why this year, what they. say call as a super El Niño, having you. know, huge impact in Europe with the. heatwave and thousands of people died. because of this extraordinary heatwave. And in some parts of South America, it. is impacting. their agricultural pattern by having. drought there. >> And this is obviously a concern for. especially global leaders in climate.

change. What have some of them had to. say about this? >> Now, if you look at the leaders coming. from the developing countries, they are. talking about climate justice, especially country like Nepal, because. their argument has been their. contribution to global climate change, their CO2 emissions are much less. compared to countries like USA, Europe. or India or China because they are. considered as the largest polluters in. the world because of this industrial. growth.

But who are the countries, which are the. countries which are suffering? It's. countries like Nepal or in in Bhutan or. even Pakistan. Even they had this cloud. burst happening, sweeping away villages. and in many parts. in the northwest. And in Nepal again, you know, you had the second one, second. flash flood in the last a few months. So, that is where they're talking about. climate justice. And they're also asking. for climate financing. For example, you. know, in Nepal, they need at least $5. billion to come back to put all the.

relief measures to provide help to those. communities which were severely affected. by this flash flood in a couple of. months ago. So, where the money is going to come. from, whether the world nations are. going to give the money, for example, Africa, they're talking about hundreds. of billions of dollars to put money into. because of the impact of climate change. So, whether wealthier nations are they. going to give this funding or are they. going to listen to this argument that we. are not polluting much, but we are the.

ones we are suffering. So, now the. debate is moving towards that, but then. as some leaders pointed out today the. COP summit, the focus has been more on. wars and also about fossil fuels. If you. see the how the US administration is. moving towards. drilling more oil and whereas the the. importance of how moving away like for. example using electricity generation or. electricity for cars. that that debate seems to be reducing.

that has been the concern of the many. world leaders. >> I'm Ross and we've looked at how the. issue with climate change and weather. are affecting cost and and access to. food and fuel across South Asia. But. what about some of the conflicts where. we've seen obviously the war between the. US and Iran and the ongoing war between. Russia and Ukraine. They are having a. massive impact too. >> So for countries in Asia particularly. which are depending on import of. chemicals, oil and fuel and especially. fertilizer they are it's having a huge.

impact. because most of the natural gas which is. one of the main ingredients for. fertilizer production they're all coming. through the Strait of Hormuz in the from. the Gulf region. Now because of this war. there's a serious impact on many of the. natural gas producing plants in places. like in Qatar and in other countries. And also Russia is one of the biggest. producer of fertilizers because of this. ongoing war they're not able to ship. enough fertilizer out. So this is now pushing the fertilizer.

prices up. But it is also putting pressure on. governments like in India where they. spend about 17 18 billion dollars a year. in providing fertilizer subsidy. Even if. the global prices go up they can't. afford to increase the price suddenly. because the the farming community really. depends on this subsidized fertilizer. That's why one of the Indian ministers. he was talking earlier about you know on. the one side you have this El Nino. effect. On the other side we have the. fuel crisis because of the fuel prices.

are going up. Farmers are struggling to. fill their motors or tractors or other. vehicles being used for farming and then. you also have this fertilizer shortage. disruption to the fertilizer supplies. So far there is no major impact as such, they're somehow finding a way, but the. freight cost of the ships have increased. for fuel. Even if the fuel prices are. fluctuation, the containers, the oil. bringing ships, they have increased. because the insurance costs have gone. up. So these are all putting like if.

there is a. shortage of fertilizer, that will have a. huge impact on agriculture in Asia and. many other parts of the world because. unless you have enough fertilizer, you're not going to get the yield. That. is a concern. That's why many people are. saying how these wars are having an. impact on fertilizer as well as. agriculture. >> Okay, so so when it comes to then taking. all of this into account, we we look at. India and and look at South Asia as a. whole, that the cost of living crisis is. biting significantly and we're seeing a. lot of protests, you know, we're seeing. them in in Western more developed.

countries as well, but especially more. so now as it's obviously heightened now. by what you've described in countries. across South Asia. >> Many societies are feeling the pressures. of cost of living crisis, particularly. after the war started in Iran in early. this year. For example, in Bangladesh, we have been. seeing protests by. thousands of clothing factory workers. There are 4 million people working in. the sector and now they are asking for. pay hike and mainly they're pointing out. that because of the fuel costs, food.

prices have gone up and the transport. cost has gone up. We can't manage with. the existing salary. You know, that has. been going on for the past 10 days or so. that has led to violence, police using. batons and tear gas. And it's not only. in Asia. If you move to countries like. in France, again in Germany, the cost of. living has become a big issue because of. these increasing fuel prices that is. also leading to increase in other. prices. And the shortage of cooking gas, for example, in a country like Pakistan,

again in Bangladesh. The shortage of cooking gas is it's a. huge issue because people instead of. getting your cylinders in a matter of a. few days or a week, now they have to. wait for a longer time and they have to. pay more to for the cooking gas. And. sometimes if you're connected to the. central pipeline, you don't get for. several hours, you don't get enough gas. for for cooking. So it is not simply. about. what is happening in the Middle East is. it a war. It is also having an impact on.

the kitchens of many of the households. in countries like in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and also the cost of living. crisis in Western world. >> Ambrasan, as always, thank you so much. That's Ambrasan Ethirajan, our Global. Affairs reporter. And that's all for. now. To hear more about the topics we. covered today, you can find the audio. version on the Global News podcast or. wherever you get your BBC podcasts from. If you'd like to get in touch, our. contact details are below. I'm Ankur. Desai. Thanks ever so much for your. company. Until next time, goodbye.