What is Putin's plan after four years of war in Ukraine? | Global News Podcast

Hi, I'm Celia Hatton and welcome to the. BBC's Global News podcast on YouTube. where we go behind the headlines to. focus on one story and why it matters. Today, we're taking a look inside Russia. at its people and its leader, Vladimir. Putin, four years into the war with. Ukraine. Joining me is the BBC's Russia. editor, Steve Rosenberg, in Moscow. Steve Rosenberg, thank you so much for. joining us. In a few moments, I want to. ask you what's going on inside Vladimir. Putin's mind. But first, I mean, you're.

one of the few Western journalists in. Russia uh speaking to a whole host of uh. Russian people on the leadup to this. 4-year anniversary. I wonder if you. could tell us about some of them. >> It's still possible, yes, for us to to. travel around Russia, to visit towns and. villages, to speak to people. Uh and so. recently we went to um a region called. Lipitz, Leipitzk region which is kind of. halfway between Moscow and the Ukrainian. border and uh you know chatting to.

people on the street I was asking people. you know what worries them most of all. about their lives and almost everybody. said uh prices and communal bills. electricity heating that kind of thing. that's the first concern people have. because everything is becoming becom. more expensive. So, for example, I spoke. to a lady called Arena in the town of. Ullet. Uh she works as a ticket.

collector at the local bus station. She. doesn't earn very much. She earns about. $250 US a month, the equivalent. And. about half of that she now spends on. utility bills, which doesn't leave very. much for food. And we were hearing that. from everybody. As far as the war is. concerned, uh you get the feeling there is this. fatigue with the war and a great deal of. concern about the number of Russians uh. Russian soldiers who've been killed over.

the last four years. So Arena told me. that the husband of her friend had been. killed fighting in Ukraine. the son of. her cousin had been killed and she said. to her grandson. um she helps people who are fighting on. the front line she sends aid packages to. them uh but when I mentioned to her that. the so-called special military operation. the war in Ukraine has now lasted longer. than um the Soviet Union's fight against.

Nazi Germany. uh what's known as the great patriotic. war here she said yes but in the Great. Patriotic War. We knew what we were. fighting for. I'm not sure what we're. fighting for now. I thought that was. fascinating because here is someone who. wasn't criticizing the war in Ukraine, someone who actually helps Russian. soldiers with aid packages, but. admitting that she doesn't quite. understand what what this is all for. And I think uh I get the feeling that.

that is the case with with many people. that they don't openly uh you know, criticize the war. They don't oppose it. They go onto the streets with with. placards to say down with the war. But. they haven't understood. um why the Russian authorities are are. waging this war. >> Steve, do you get the sense that people. are connecting the dots that they are. linking the the social and economic. challenges they're facing with the war?

>> Not everybody. Clearly everything is. getting more expensive and partly that. is the result or to a large extent that. is the result of the war and four years. of international sanctions. Uh one man. Ivan said to me I think the special. military operation is a great thing. It's just I don't like the fact that. prices are going up and uh they put my. pension up then the prices go up even. more so I don't get anything in the end. So he wasn't connecting the dots. Uh.

what I've noticed is that the the. messaging and the state media um over. the last four years has been directed at. preventing people from joining the dots. Preventing people from saying well uh. our economic situation is getting worse. as a result of the decision that our. government took in 2022 to launch a. full-scale invasion of Ukraine. So what. the messaging tries to do is to put all. the blame on the west, on NATO, on.

Europe, uh on Britain, and to say that. if life is getting worse in Russia for. you, it's not because of the Kremlin, it's because of the evil West that is. trying to uh destroy Russia. >> So we've talked about what the Russian. people are thinking, but let's talk. about the man himself, Vladimir Putin. What do you think he's thinking at this. point in the war? >> Well, I'm not a psychiatrist or a. psychologist. It's difficult to get. inside the head of the Russian.

president. However, whenever he appears on television. [snorts] making a speech or putting on, you know, military fatigues and speaking. to his commanders, he seems confident, right? He seems. particularly excited and animated when. he's talking about the war. and he creates the impression of a. Kremlin leader who believes that he has. the initiative in this war and that.

eventually he's going to win. Now, that. may seem strange considering that this. war went completely not according to. plan of Vladimir Putin. This was. supposed to have been a special military. operation lasting days or weeks maximum. I don't think President Putin envisaged. this as a long-term war, but it is a. war. It didn't go to plan. And Russia. has suffered huge casualties, major. economic uh effects. Yet, he Vladimir.

Putin is confident that in what has. become a war of attrition, Russia will. win. That Russia has more resources, he. believes, than Ukraine. Russia has the. staying power and the willpower. uh much more than Europe. um he sees. divisions in Europe between European. leaders about how to approach this. And. of course he looks to Washington, he. looks to the White House and he sees in. the Oval Office an American president.

who clearly wants a better relationship. with Russia. Someone who has held many. telephone conversations with Vladimir. Putin over the last year. Someone who. invited Vladimir Putin to Alaska. remember last year for that summit. rolling out the red carpet for Vladimir. Putin, bringing him in from the cold. So. he puts all that together and I think he. believes that in the long term if he. pushes on then he will get what he. wants. So the the next question is what.

does he want? [laughter]. >> Can you answer that? >> Well, I think that his objective hasn't. changed. I think that four years ago, >> this was all about forcing Ukraine back. into Moscow's orbit. Number one, and. number two, in so doing, to sort of. upturn or revamp the European security. infrastructure, >> the the European security system. Um, and I don't think that's changed. So he.

I don't think can imagine Ukraine. uh outside of of Russia's influence. Even if the war ends at some point uh. with a peace deal, uh I would imagine. that um the Russian authorities will be. keen to uh at some point diplomatically, politically somehow to bring Ukraine. back into back into the fold. Whether. that's going to be possible, that's. another, you know, matter entirely.

>> How would you assess Russia's access to. resources at that point at this point in. order to to reach that end goal? Does. does Russia have the resources to to to. achieve its goals? >> This is a key question, isn't it? Uh if. we think of Vladimir Putin as. a car. uh sort of um hurtling down the highway, right? Um, I often see him as like the. Putin mobile without a steering wheel,

without a brake, just heading in one. direction. The question is, how much gas. does he have in the tank? How much. petrol is there? How um. how much money is there in in the. Russian economy? Because you need money. obviously and resources to fight a war. Mhm. >> And uh there's no doubt that the Russian. economy is entering a very turbulent. time. And it's not just me saying that. It's the Russian papers. If you read the.

Russian newspapers, and I try and do. that on a daily basis, even in a very. controlled media landscape that Russia. is now, Russian newspapers almost on a. daily basis talk about the major. economic problems that this country is. facing. the the the budget deficit, uh. the pressure on businesses, the fact. that um the word stagnatia, stagnation. is used so often now to talk about the. economy, spud recession. And what we're. seeing is that after four years of war.

and four years of massive international. sanctions um there are major problems. that um that are affecting the Russian. economy and affecting how much money. Vladimir Putin has to continue the war. At the moment he can there's no doubt he. has the resources. Uh but uh will he have the resources if. this continues for 6 months, a year, year and a half? he seems to be. confident that he will, but um certainly.

it's it feels like this is going to be. quite a bumpy year. >> I wonder if we can end on a on a bit of. a a focus on on on you. I mean, what's. it like for you as a as the BBC's Russia. editor to go in and out of Russia, to. have conversations inside Russia, to. observe the the messaging as you talked. about in the Russian state media, and. then to leave Russia and have. conversations and to see it from another. vantage point? >> It's an interesting question, isn't it? Sometimes it feels.

being here like you're in this very kind. of unusual bubble and to an extent in. this sort of parallel reality because. you know when you switch on the. television you're told that uh Russia is. liberating Ukraine and liberating. Ukrainian towns and cities that Russia. is not the aggressor that Russia is the. victim the victim of western aggression. that the west is somehow trying to. destroy Russia.

chop Russia into into bits so it's a. very different message from the message. you hear outside of Russia. So what you. know when I leave uh Russia and I go to. you back to the UK for a bit or. somewhere else then yeah you switch on. the television there and it it's it's a. it's a very different message. Um but. then you come back and then uh again you. have this sort of message that black is. white and and white is black. You know I.

want to be here and I want to cover. what's going on. I think it's important. to be here and um it's important to. understand I think what the the. leadership is saying and what Russian. people are saying because you know. Russia is not going anywhere as it. biggest country in the world and nuclear. superpower. Um despite what anyone may think about. Russia it's here to stay. So I think. it's important to understand.

try to understand what's going on here. Steve, we're so grateful that you are in. Moscow and we're so grateful to to have. your input and your conversation with us. today. So, thanks for speaking with us. Thanks for joining us. >> Thank you very much indeed. It's a. pleasure. >> The BBC's Russia editor, Steve Rosenberg. in Moscow. Now, if you liked this. episode, do please subscribe to us here. on YouTube. And if you'd like us to. cover any other stories, please leave a. comment below. You can hear more. international news on the BBC's Global. News Podcast. Listen wherever you get.

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