What is Putin's next move in the Ukraine war? | Global News Podcast

Welcome to the Global News podcast. I'm. Janet Jalil, and today I'm joined by our. diplomatic correspondent James Landale, who's in Moscow. And NATO leaders are. meeting in Turkey as Russia appears to. be struggling in its war against Ukraine. now in its fifth year. And James, how do. you assess that the war is going for. President Putin? >> Well, it depends whose perspective you. look at. From the Russian perspective at. the moment, they the authorities here. insist the war is going all right.

Uh Vladimir Putin briefed his commanders. just a few days ago, and both he and. they were talking about the gains that. they claimed they were making on the. front line. They claimed that they had. Russian forces had taken control of a. key city in eastern Ukraine. And at the. same time, uh the the Russian authorities say that. they're doing pretty well in the air war. as well. Certainly, we know for a fact. that over the last week, uh Russia has. launched three substantial missile and.

drone attacks on Ukraine. So, from the. Russian point of view, in terms of the. authorities, they are still insisting. that they are ticking over making. progress. However, that is not the view of. Ukraine. It is not the view of uh. Ukraine's western allies, who believe. that Ukraine now has actually finally. managed to find a key weakness in the. Russian armory, namely its economy. And. so, in recent days and weeks, Ukraine. has been targeting it almost exclusively.

Russian oil refineries, so that at the moment there is a fuel. crisis in Russia. Uh and the Ukrainians hope that that. will make a difference in the long run. by bringing the war closer to home for. ordinary Russians. >> Uh and that is the big question, isn't. it? How will President Putin respond to. the fact that there are now long queues. for fuel, that the. in Moscow and St. Petersburg are seeing. black smoke on the skyline as these oil.

refineries are hit. Will he change. course? >> Well, we certainly know that the Kremlin. is aware of this and has felt that the. situation is serious enough to to. acknowledge it. So, Vladimir Putin has. got, you know, summoned in the cameras. and given an interview to state. television in which he's acknowledged. the fact that there is a problem with. the shortages. But he says that it's not. critical. However, certainly the. government is is making efforts to try. and counter that. They're trying to. increase imports of refined fuel. They.

are subsidizing prices. They are. allowing lower grade fuel to be. distributed. But I think acknowledging. that there is a problem is not the same. as acknowledging that they are in any. way going to change their war aims. The. Russians have made it very clear, the. government here, that at the moment they. see no reason to change their war aims, which are still pretty maximalist. And. Vladimir Putin, whenever he's asked. about it or is saying anything in public. about it, talks about.

claiming more territory in eastern. Ukraine, which he insists is already Russian. territory, and keeping going on that front. So, at. the moment, there's no sign that the. Russian side is going to shift on this. >> One big concern for for NATO leaders at. this summit is the warning that. President Putin might be looking at. opening up another front in Europe, possibly launching some kind of attack. against a NATO ally. >> Yeah, look, that is the big question. that western analysts and ministers and.

diplomats are struggling with at the. moment because. if you accept that the Ukrainian actions. now is putting economic pressure on the. Kremlin that potentially could become. political pressure, the Ukrainians are hoping that that. persuades Vladimir Putin to come to the. table, to agree, let let's talk, let. let's have some kind of discussion about. a. potential political settlement to this. conflict. However, there is another. bunch of analysts who will tell you that. actually in that circumstance,

uh Mr. Putin will not. move to talks, but instead he will think. of pushing back in some ways. And the. question therefore is, if Mr. Putin were. to escalate, how would he do that? And. at the moment, uh Western analysts are. going through the full gamut of. potential uh possibilities from, you. know, stepping up actions on the front. line in Eastern Ukraine through to some. kind of increased gray war attack on on. the on uh West, or even some kind of.

action that actually prods NATO itself. potentially against uh Poland or or. Baltic. All of these things have been. speculated about by the newspapers and. uh analysts. Uh and the question there. is is whenever you talk to those. analysts, very few of them actually. agree where they think the Russian uh. leader may or may not move. Others say. this. They say actually, uh Mr. Putin is.

actually quite cautious at times. And. so, it might be some time before we. actually learn what the next move he's. going to make is. >> And he'll have been encouraged by. President Trump's repeated criticism of. NATO allies at the summit. President. Trump has also been keeping in touch. with President speaking to him before. going to Ankara. And apparently he'll be. speaking to him after he meets Ukrainian. President Vladimir Zelensky. So, this is.

something that perhaps the Russian. leader is hoping he can capitalize on. >> Well, look, both President Zelensky and. President Putin have been in a sort of. um. a game of who can sweet talk Donald. Trump the best ahead of the NATO summit. Both of them having conversations with. him. Both of them trying to get their. uh their narrative across. At the. moment, the Americans seem to accept the. Ukrainian narrative that actually, you. know, for the first time in a while, Ukraine is more on the front foot in.

this war than it has been. But at the same time, Donald Trump. Donald Trump received messages from. Vladimir Putin congratulating him on the. 250th Independence Day anniversary. celebrations over the weekend. They had. a telephone call in which. >> [snorts]. >> President Putin again invited Donald. Trump to come to to Russia for a visit. And essentially but reinforcing the. arguments that, you know, yes, Russia is.

in principle ready to accept some kind. of political settlement to this war. as long as it is clearly on Russia's. terms. But until that time happens, it. is going to continue prosecuting. this war on Ukraine. >> Recent polls in in Russia have indicated. that President Putin's approval ratings. are dipping, that people are very. pessimistic about the economy, more. pessimistic than they've been for. decades. How secure is President Putin's.

position? Is there any internal threat. against him? >> It is true that his his ratings have. dipped a bit in the opinion polls. I. mean, they're still pretty high compared. to any. to to normal leaders in opinion polls. But for. Russian leader, they are have dipped a. bit as a result of some people's. concerns about the state of the economy. and the state of the war. Um. but the question is, does that translate. into real political pressure on the.

Kremlin? This is. not a a country where there are many. vehicles for that pressure to be voiced. There are elections for the Duma later. this year, so that gives at least some. capability for. voters to express some opinions. Uh but. at the moment, uh there's very little. evidence of. any kind of substantial political. opposition. driving uh the Kremlin into a into a. different position on this simply on the.

basis of the economic. uh fuel shortage that they're going. through at the moment. >> And James, it it does seem incredible. how there has been this big turnaround. in the past few months. We were talking. just a few months ago about Ukraine. being on the ropes, but now it seems. that Ukraine has a new-found confidence, which seems to be largely down to its. advanced drone technology. >> Well, I think one thing we've seen. during this war is quite a regular. pattern of both sides' fortunes rising.

and falling at various stages. And. sometimes that has been as a result of. um uh. the uh outcome of, you know, military. action on the battlefield. Sometimes it. has been a result of um economic uh. rise and fall. Sometimes it has been. because of changes in support from uh. you know, Western allies giving more or. less support to Ukraine. Sometimes, as. you say, it's been a result of. technological advance. But yes, at the. moment, Ukraine believes it has the wind.

in its sails in a way that it hasn't for. some time. And it hopes to use this. moment to put more pressure uh on the. Russian uh leadership to uh to change. its position. But at the same time, uh it's entirely. possible that uh the situation remains. pretty stable over the rest of the. summer. And then come next winter, uh. Ukrainian uh the authorities are really. worried about the state of their energy. capacity during the next winter because. so much of it was destroyed by Russia.

during the last winter. And none of this. can be repaired in short order in time. for next winter. So, the Ukrainian. authorities are doing their best to go. go around the world finding as many. generators, portable generators as they. can and bring them into Ukraine. So, they've got extra charging capability. to try and tide them through next. winter. So, it's entirely possible that. the the tide of this war flows in a. different direction in the future. But. you're you're right to say at the moment. Ukraine believes it's got an edge simply.

because it has managed to find what it. believes is an economic vulnerability. in the Russian flank and it's punching. that that bruise relentlessly at the. moment. >> James, thank you. That was James. Landale, our diplomatic correspondent in. Moscow. And if you'd like to hear more. of the Global News Podcast, please click. on the link below.