What is Iran thinking as Trump declares the ceasefire over? | Global News Podcast

Welcome to the global news podcast from. the BBC. I'm Janet Jalil and joining us. is Parham Ghobadi from the BBC's Persian. service. The US and Iran have been. trading air strikes this week raising. fears of a return to all-out war. So. Parham, the US says this all started. when the Iranians fired on three. commercial vessels that were trying to. get through the Strait of Hormuz. Why. would Iran jeopardize the ceasefire? >> That's a great question. Because Iran.

wants to exert its control over the. Strait of Hormuz. But the question is. why they want to do that. Why are they. jeopardizing all of this? Because. according from their own perspective, Iran sees all these sanctions relief and. all these economic incentives that the. Americans are providing something. temporarily that can be overdone. overnight. Because they need waivers for. example, they needs that needs to be. renewed every 60 days. Just a few days. ago after Iran attacked the ships, they.

were canceled. So Iran sees that as a. temporary thing. However, they see the. Strait of Hormuz as an infinite source. of income that can go on forever and it. does not need the United States approval. or any other country for that matter. Apart from that, Iran has been under. sanction for decades. So if for example, tomorrow France put sanctions or EU put. sanctions on Iran, they can say, "Okay, from now on we're not going to allow. your ships to go through the Strait of. Hormuz." So to you know, to change the.

equation and to change their. calculations. >> And can we just clarify because there. are several routes through the Strait of. Hormuz? Could you just elaborate on that. for us? >> Yeah. So we've got as you mentioned. there are three routes. One that goes. through the Iranian water and one right. now goes through the Omani water. And. one that used to be in the in between. but now it's full of mines. So Iran is. insisting that all the ships has to go. through the. Iranian waterway and they have. established a body, straight of straight. authority, that they need to communicate.

and coordinate with the Iranians. And. when they started opening up the other. routes from the Omani water, Iranian. Revolutionary Guards started targeting. those ships because they want to have. the entire control. Because they've. promised for 60 days they're not going. to charge any money from the ships that. are going through, but this memorandum. of understanding is a bit vague. It's. not clear what is going to happen after. the 60 days. What Iranian authorities. are saying, for example, Iranian. ambassador to China said that definitely.

Iran after the 60 days is over is going. to take some transit fees. They they're. insisting that it's not tolls, it's a. fee, but regardless of the name, it's. some money that ships have to pay to go. through the Strait of Hormuz, and it. shows that Iran is really adamant to. keep that Strait of Hormuz as a leverage. against the United States and the rest. of the Western world. >> Does Iran risk overplaying its hand by. trying to force ships to go through that. route closest to its shore?

>> That's very important question because. many Iranian analysts are actually. saying that. They're saying that Iran is. overplaying its card. And it's not only. the Iranian analysts who are saying. that. Iranian chief negotiator, Mohammad. Baqer Qalibaf, has also mentioned that. in an interview a few days ago because. he's also facing hardliners in the. country who say, "Look, close the Strait. of Hormuz. Go to a war with the United. States." He was telling them, "Listen, if we overplay our card, then in the. long term it's going to be it's going to. work against us because if the ships.

stop going through the Strait of Hormuz, these countries are going to find other. routes to transfer oil, and in the long. run that's going to be that's not going. to be in our favor. Vice versa, it's. going to damage us and it's going to. harm the country." So, Iranian. authorities understand that, but why. they're still doing that, there might be. a, you know, friction in. any. authorities. There might be different. factions who want different things. We. don't know that yet, but we know that at. least Iranian chief negotiator is aware. of that. But, they're acting.

differently. >> Because Iran's leaders are very keen to. put on a show of unity. We've seen them. doing that with this week-long funeral. for the late leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, during which images were broadcast. calling for the death of President. Trump. >> That's true. However, that's far from. the reality. What happens is that in the. days leading to the funeral, the rift between the Iranian different. factions of Iran, or the hardliners and. less hardliners, like they are the.

moderates who want to negotiate at least. between these two factions, the rift was. widening really big. So, they were. constantly attacking one another, but at. the same time, they are putting up this. show as you mentioned. And from a person. who is on the stage calls for President. Trump's assassination. And from. yesterday's speech at NATO, what Donald. Trump was saying, it's a it appears that. he has heard these threats, and he's. taking them seriously. So, it's really. unwise for the Iranians to. do something like that, because it is.

jeopardizing the future of 91 million. people and the country as well. >> And you could hear that in the words he. used. He called the Iranian leaders. scum. It was very emotional, wasn't it, what he had to say? >> Just a few weeks after that he called. them really rational people that he can. really negotiate with. So, we've got. that with President Trump as well. So, I. wouldn't be really to say that he would. be, you know, honored to meet them. tomorrow morning, because he has changed. his position several times, many times. in the past few weeks and months. But,

the Iranians have been actually. persistent with their. whether it's right or wrong, that's a. different story, but they've been. persistent with what they want. They. want the Strait of Hormuz to have to to. control over that. I think that maybe their. uh the the nuclear program is up for. negotiation because now they've learned. that Strait of Hormuz is a much better. leverage for them than the nuclear. program. But the rhetoric, what they say. is that we want to have the right for. nuclear enrichment. Well, are are they.

willing to suspend that right for 20. years for some economic incentives? Those are those are the things that are. going to be decided in the negotiations. later on if they take place. >> President Trump is now saying that the. ceasefire is over. Is it? >> Um well, it's really difficult to say. it's over. Uh it's not completely. So, what we are seeing is not a war like. that 40-day 39-days war. It's not like. they're bombing throughout the country. So, for example, Tehran for that matter. has not been targeted. Karaj, which is a.

metropolitan city next to Tehran, is not. targeted. The Strait of Hormuz is not. completely closed yet, although I think. very few ships or if any are still going. through it, but the naval blockade is. not back on again. So, we're not back. into the previous phase yet. It seems to. me it appears that it's a kind of. limited military operations of the two. countries tit-for-tat operations against. another. They want to have a, you know, restrained kind of confrontation to make.

their point. >> Yes, it's all looking very delicate, but. from what you're saying it doesn't look. like there's going to be a return to. all-out war, which is what a lot of. people fear. >> Exactly. So, when you talk to Iranians. right now, the mood in the country has. changed a lot before and after the war. Let's not forget that the funeral of the. person who is actually getting buried, he was killed 2 months after. a brutal crackdown in Iran. So, the rift. in the society is not only between.

hardliners and the moderates, but also. between the opponents of the regime and. the proponents of the regime. So, this. show that they've put up. to send a signal and to send this. message that all Iranians are united is. really far from the reality. There are. many Iranians who do do not like this. regime, who went on the street, who took. to the streets, and they were killed. with a bullet. The difference is that. the people who attend a funeral, they're. given food, transportation, place to. stay. The people who go out on the. street to protest, they're faced with. bullets, ex- uh threat of execution and arrests.

>> So, in a way, that might motivate the. Iranian leadership to do some kind of. deal to try to restore the economy, which which has been really in a dire. strait for for a long time now. >> It has been in a dire strait, but uh and. that's what again Iranian chief. negotiator was telling hardliners that. listen, uh you're blaming me for. uh why I'm negotiating with the. Americans, but the naval blockade was. hurting the Iranian economy. So, but we. need to export our oil.

But, regardless of that, the Iranian. Revolutionary Guards, it's so. ideological that they're willing to take. risk, and their risk-taking appetite has. developed and has grown tremendously. In. the past, Iran used to threat the United. States of attacking its bases in the. region, but now we see that they can do. it easily. They're doing it like 2 days. in a row right now. Today, uh sirens. were, you know, uh went off in Jordan. Jordan was not one of the countries that. was attacked repeatedly. Yes, Bahrain. was, UAE was, uh Kuwait was, but not.

Jordan. So, we see that they're shooting. missiles at so many different countries. in the region. >> Thanks very much, Parham. That was. Parham Ghobadi from the BBC's Persian. Service. And if you'd like to see more. of the Global News Podcast, please click. on the link below.